Gas prices

[Communicore1991]

Um no. The economy is exploding around here. The best thing we could have is letting some air out of the balloon. When you have people paying $80m an acre for residentially zoned property you have insanity.

A lot of economists are warning about a global recession being right around the corner. I don't know economics and won't pretend to, but I think many are rightfully concerned about the possibility of recession.

 

[slo]

The gas here in NW Indiana has hit $4.79 a gallon - the highest it’s ever been.
Thank goodness I decided to get a hybrid this year.

 

[Drewsdad]

Back to $4 a gallon here. guess it is here to stay

 

[dvcgirl67]

Um no. The economy is exploding around here. The best thing we could have is letting some air out of the balloon. When you have people paying $80m an acre for residentially zoned property you have insanity.

I saw a report this morning that we're likely to see the first increase in housing supply (month over month) in the past three years. Now this is overall for the U.S. Housing market, but still....that's the trend. The white hot coastal markets and other select cities like say, Austin or Nashville....are going to take a longer to cool off. But there are a lot of factors coalescing that will slow down this economy, and subsequently, the housing market. On the lower end of the market, interest rates really affect who can even afford to get in....and on the higher end, falling equities prices begin to make some higher end buyers a bit queasy....or a combo of both for most people in the middle. I don't see how we fall into a recession this year, barring some black swan event. The job market is too hot and there's still two trillion excess dollars sloshing around in American bank accounts according to the Fed. But the trend seems to be taking us there next year.

 

[xdan0920]

Just yesterday afternoon I saw $4.43 at the cheapest place. Gas prices have gone up 20 cents in the last week here in NJ.

Wholesale has gone up way more. It's just taking some time to hit the streets.

I own a gas station in NJ. FWIW.

 

[Sinder]

At this point my ds who decided to stay home and commute to school should have moved away and paid for a dorm, it probably would have been cheaper.
Our gas tax break will go in to effect June1 but thats way too late to really help people. Gas prices will be insanely high by then negating any tax break we will get.

 

[xdan0920]

When they stopped collecting gas taxes the stations just pocketed the extra money. They didn't lower prices.

This is total conjecture. You have no way of knowing this.

 

[Moliphino]

When they stopped collecting gas taxes the stations just pocketed the extra money. They didn't lower prices.

The prices did go down in CT when they suspended the gas tax, at least near the MA border. Made the CT gas prices lower than the MA prices, which is not usual.

 

[MillauFr]

A lot of economists are warning about a global recession being right around the corner. I don't know economics and won't pretend to, but I think many are rightfully concerned about the possibility of recession.

That normally would be a bad thing but in this overheated economy I am not so sure. The job market is so out whack with many businesses here limiting hours because of lack on employees. Wage increases are surging. I am on the Cerner Reddit boards because I own the stock. They are getting bought out by Oracle and many of the employees are worried about layoffs. Every time they post though a bunch of their former coworkers tell them it is nothing to worry about and that it is a good time to jump ship anyway as they left and immediately got multiple job offers and 70%, 80%, and 100% salary increases.

 

[dvcgirl67]

That normally would be a bad thing but in this overheated economy I am not so sure. The job market is so out whack with many businesses here limiting hours because of lack on employees. Wage increases are surging. I am on the Cerner Reddit boards because I own the stock. They are getting bought out by Oracle and many of the employees are worried about layoffs. Every time they post though a bunch of their former coworkers tell them it is nothing to worry about and that it is a good time to jump ship anyway as they left and immediately got multiple job offers and 70%, 80%, and 100% salary increases.

I've been reading that wage inflation has crept out of the lower income quartile on up to higher paying jobs, so this doesn't surprise me. If that trend continues it's troubling, because it's much tougher to get inflation out of the system once it creeps further up the chain with wages.

It does really feel like we're coming to the end of a very speculative bubble though....the end, or at least a pretty long break from this super cheap money period. That part of it at least, reminds me of the dot.com bubble bursting and how the nasdaq topped 5,000 in the spring of 2000, and then collapsed....and didn't hit 5,000 again for *15* years. Hoping we don't see anything like that slaughter. But it's comical how a year ago, all investors cared about was "users", "subscribers", "deliveries per quarter".....and now.....we only care about profits. It's the same dance every time.

The Fed has an impossible job now....keeping unemployment low....and inflation low. And then there's the third unspoken job....keeping the markets happy. And the fourth whispered job...don't let the housing market implode. They're going to have to raise continue to raise rates to get us out of this mess, more than they're forecasting. We're going to have to endure some pain.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I've been reading that wage inflation has crept out of the lower income quartile on up to higher paying jobs, so this doesn't surprise me. If that trend continues it's troubling, because it's much tougher to get inflation out of the system once it creeps further up the chain with wages.

It does really feel like we're coming to the end of a very speculative bubble though....the end, or at least a pretty long break from this super cheap money period. That part of it at least, reminds me of the dot.com bubble bursting and how the nasdaq topped 5,000 in the spring of 2000, and then collapsed....and didn't hit 5,000 again for *15* years. Hoping we don't see anything like that slaughter. But it's comical how a year ago, all investors cared about was "users", "subscribers", "deliveries per quarter".....and now.....we only care about profits. It's the same dance every time.

The Fed has an impossible job now....keeping unemployment low....and inflation low. And then there's the third unspoken job....keeping the markets happy. And the fourth whispered job...don't let the housing market implode. They're going to have to raise continue to raise rates to get us out of this mess, more than they're forecasting. We're going to have to endure some pain.

How about the FED, as in federal government start by keeping gas prices low

 

[dvcgirl67]

How about the FED, as in federal government start by keeping gas prices low

Aren't you the aviation expert guy? I never would have pegged you as a price controls guy....more of a free market guy . I don't know....right now, any kind of tax cut, gas rebate, price control, student loan forgiveness....any of it, just adds or keeps excess money sloshing around in our economy, which is how we got here in the first place right? It's just lipstick on a pig. And when we look at the extra money sloshing around and consider that supply chains are still very challenged we're still in trouble. Things have to cool off enough to depress demand until supply catches up. Whether that means a big slowdown or a recession remains to be seen.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Aren't you the aviation expert guy? I never would have pegged you as a price controls guy....more of a free market guy . I don't know....right now, any kind of tax cut, gas rebate, price control, student loan forgiveness....any of it, just adds or keeps excess money sloshing around in our economy, which is how we got here in the first place right? It's just lipstick on a pig. And when we look at the extra money sloshing around and consider that supply chains are still very challenged we're still in trouble. Things have to cool off enough to depress demand until supply catches up. Whether that means a big slowdown or a recession remains to be seen.

Free market yes, socialist, green new dealist, Nope not a chance !
Supply chains are challenged because truck driver can’t afford to put 6 dollar a gallon diesel fuel in their trucks. Until that changes, you are right anything is lips stick on a pig.

You can’t move a single product in this country without Diesel fuel.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Free market yes, socialist, green new dealist, Nope not a chance !
Supply chains are challenged because truck driver can’t afford to put 6 dollar a gallon diesel fuel in their trucks. Until that changes, you are right anything is lips stick on a pig.

You can’t move a single product in this country without Diesel fuel.

Ha! Okay...fair answer relating to your position.

But...sometimes a hammer only sees nails....and while I completely get that supply chains are greatly challenged due to the price of diesel fuel, from everything I'm reading there are so many factors at play. Lots of shortages....still... for lots of parts, commodities, labor....on and on. Just China shutting cities down is a huge deal.

Anyway, I love a good debate, and appreciate you bringing your expertise to the table. I know you believe that the price of diesel fuel alone brings us into a deep recession. But how would price controls work for say...gas, diesel and jet fuel? It seems that even with these insanely exorbitant prices, drillers aren't able to meet demand. Refiners aren't able to meet demand....on and on. Or, they've switched over to making more diesel because it's so expensive, which is what will drive gasoline much higher in the near future....on and on. Now, are they just kind of *saying* that...you know, like the Saudis...who tell us they're pumping as fast as they can....when we all know they're not. Because in that world I always kind of think that these companies live in this "peaks and valleys" kind of world....they've got to "make hay while the sun shines"....because there's always a storm on the horizon. It was around two years ago when these companies had to pay storage facilities to take their product.

 

[xdan0920]

Ha! Okay...fair answer relating to your position.

But...sometimes a hammer only sees nails....and while I completely get that supply chains are greatly challenged due to the price of diesel fuel, from everything I'm reading there are so many factors at play. Lots of shortages....still... for lots of parts, commodities, labor....on and on. Just China shutting cities down is a huge deal.

Anyway, I love a good debate, and appreciate you bringing your expertise to the table. I know you believe that the price of diesel fuel alone brings us into a deep recession. But how would price controls work for say...gas, diesel and jet fuel? It seems that even with these insanely exorbitant prices, drillers aren't able to meet demand. Refiners aren't able to meet demand....on and on. Or, they've switched over to making more diesel because it's so expensive, which is what will drive gasoline much higher in the near future....on and on. Now, are they just kind of *saying* that...you know, like the Saudis...who tell us they're pumping as fast as they can....when we all know they're not. Because in that world I always kind of think that these companies live in this "peaks and valleys" kind of world....they've got to "make hay while the sun shines"....because there's always a storm on the horizon. It was around two years ago when these companies had to pay storage facilities to take their product.

We don't need price controls. We need oil production. The market will correct itself.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Ha! Okay...fair answer relating to your position.

But...sometimes a hammer only sees nails....and while I completely get that supply chains are greatly challenged due to the price of diesel fuel, from everything I'm reading there are so many factors at play. Lots of shortages....still... for lots of parts, commodities, labor....on and on. Just China shutting cities down is a huge deal.

Anyway, I love a good debate, and appreciate you bringing your expertise to the table. I know you believe that the price of diesel fuel alone brings us into a deep recession. But how would price controls work for say...gas, diesel and jet fuel? It seems that even with these insanely exorbitant prices, drillers aren't able to meet demand. Refiners aren't able to meet demand....on and on. Or, they've switched over to making more diesel because it's so expensive, which is what will drive gasoline much higher in the near future....on and on. Now, are they just kind of *saying* that...you know, like the Saudis...who tell us they're pumping as fast as they can....when we all know they're not. Because in that world I always kind of think that these companies live in this "peaks and valleys" kind of world....they've got to "make hay while the sun shines"....because there's always a storm on the horizon. It was around two years ago when these companies had to pay storage facilities to take their product.

Well its not just diesel. It is oil general.
Everything in most America’s lives has some need for oil at some level.

And yes the Saudis are most likely lying to us. But my statement wasn’t the Saudis need to keep gas prices low, now was it?

April 11, 2020 when crude oil features were trading at a negative 38 dollars per barrel, the Saudis were paying to store oil in tankers, the US was energy independent, and Putin didn’t have the money to attack anyone.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Well its not just diesel. It is oil general.
Everything in most America’s lives has some need for oil at some level.

And yes the Saudis are most likely lying to us. But my statement wasn’t the Saudis need to keep gas prices low, now was it?

April 11, 2020 when crude oil features were trading at a negative 38 dollars per barrel, the Saudis were paying to store oil in tankers, the US was energy independent, and Putin didn’t have the money to attack anyone.

I only brought up the saudis because oil is a global market. They also keep their internal gas prices artificially low....a bit easier for them with the amount of oil they produce with 1/10th of the population of the U.S.

So...if the U.S. puts in price controls on fuel, do we also need to ban exports? Why would a U.S. driller not sell its product for more on the open market?

 

[dvcgirl67]

We don't need price controls. We need oil production. The market will correct itself.

So the gas station owner disagrees with the aviation expert...now we have a debate! .

Seriously, I don't disagree that we're in a serious pinch with respect to oil. Personally, I'd prefer that we move towards renewable energy sources, but I understand that we're in a difficult stretch now, a difficult period where we obviously can't transition fast enough to meet demand. I also remember periods when oil spiked up really high....only to see demand squashed so much that oil then plummeted. Right now we've got about two trillion extra sloshing around in bank accounts and so I feel like we're going to have high demand this summer, at least the first part of it. Believe it or not, there are millions of people who haven't taken a real vacation in a couple of years....I'm one of those people.

I think all of this talk of fuel is obviously problematic, but now we've got inflation embedded pretty deeply in things like wages, rent, housing....and, mostly importantly, in consumer expectations. Once we're all expecting inflation, we're going to go out and buy things now...when they're cheaper, which exacerbates the problem. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy at some point. Seems like we're getting to that point.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I only brought up the saudis because oil is a global market. They also keep their internal gas prices artificially low....a bit easier for them with the amount of oil they produce with 1/10th of the population of the U.S.

So...if the U.S. puts in price controls on fuel, do we also need to ban exports? Why would a U.S. driller not sell its product for more on the open market?

I’m sorry, if I didn’t make this point sooner. I didn’t say I was in favor of price control. I think the fuel prices have been inflated by bad domestic policy.

I am all for an unrestricted oil industry in the US.

The net result would be the US producing oil that would go on to the global market, reduce global prices, and reduce global dependence on less stable supplier such as Russian, Iran, etc….

I was trying to not make it a political thread but oh well.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

We don't need price controls. We need oil production. The market will correct itself.

Totally, agree !!!