Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Galun]

There is an active double point SSR with an asking price of $105 right now. My guess is you could get that for less than you paid in late March.

I saw those. Mine were almost triple points - i.e. most 2018 banked and full 2019 bankable points, so that's close to an additional $15 in value since I get all those points without paying the maintenance fee.

 

[bookwormde]

For what it's worth, the number of contracts actively for sale (not pending) on www.DVCResaleMarket.com is up about 10% in the last week. They've been noting their declining inventories for 2 months but it seems to have conclusively turned since they announced park reopenings.

about 1/2 of their new listings are significantly above the market and most of those are just sitting there, the ones at or below market are still moving fast.

Fidelity in June has been adding listing at 4x the rate of April and May

 

[Bondo9]

Don't buy the Disney magic is gone after canceling my trip. They than tell me I cannot rebook till after November and only in the school year. That if I don't use those points by February they will be lost. because we banked them for this summers 2 week trip. But they canceled our trip due to covid and I understand that but no leeway in allowing us to use the points next summer which is what we asked they said NO. I will lose those points, even with the fact that will not allow use to rebook in an out of school time and due to availability, So DONT BUY they are thieves.
The magic is gone. They care more about Sales and money. So plan on making sure to get every dollar back ANY way I can.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

For what it's worth, the number of contracts actively for sale (not pending) on www.DVCResaleMarket.com is up about 10% in the last week. They've been noting their declining inventories for 2 months but it seems to have conclusively turned since they announced park reopenings.

In all fairness, www.DVCResaleMarket.com has one or two heavy hitters with a great deal of invetory that are currently selling, but not many others are listing their contracts. If you look at the new contracts, you will notice the listing numbers are sequential, most are stripped of 2020 points and listing price has a pattern depending on use year. Best guess is someone who bought contracts to rent out, is cutting back on invetory or getting out of the game. I have no doubt this is the case at AKL and BW.

 

[MICKIMINI]

In all fairness, www.DVCResaleMarket.com has one or two heavy hitters with a great deal of invetory that are currently selling, but not many others are listing their contracts. If you look at the new contracts, you will notice the listing numbers are sequential, most are stripped of 2020 points and listing price has a pattern depending on use year. Best guess is someone who bought contracts to rent out, is cutting back on invetory or getting out of the game. I have no doubt this is the case at AKL and BW.

I've expressed this thought several times (not so eloquently LOL) in the past month or two. For the most part, contracts that have a more normal pattern of usage over 19/20/21 seem to be owned by regular people not super owners. Also note that these stripped contracts get stale, seem to disappear after being reduced in price and then reappear as "new" for a few dollars less.

There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you. I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily. It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it may actually be. It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites. I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation. It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it. I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers. That contract is still available as of this morning! I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".

 

[bookwormde]

6/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 190-200% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Matty B13]

There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you. I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily. It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it may actually be. It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites. I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation. It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it. I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers. That contract is still available as of this morning! I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".

I've been watching since 2016 and couldn't agree more with this "relisting" of stale contracts as "new" after a few months.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

I've expressed this thought several times (not so eloquently LOL) in the past month or two. For the most part, contracts that have a more normal pattern of usage over 19/20/21 seem to be owned by regular people not super owners. Also note that these stripped contracts get stale, seem to disappear after being reduced in price and then reappear as "new" for a few dollars less.

There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you. I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily. It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it may actually be. It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites. I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation. It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it. I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers. That contract is still available as of this morning! I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".

I actually can confirm the theory. I just talked to a broker and asked if these contracts are all from the same seller, the patterns are just too coincidental. He did confirm that many are the same seller. Ultimately, having one large seller sets a price floor on asking price, as other new contracts will probably price their listings accordingly.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

In all fairness, www.DVCResaleMarket.com has one or two heavy hitters with a great deal of invetory that are currently selling, but not many others are listing their contracts. If you look at the new contracts, you will notice the listing numbers are sequential, most are stripped of 2020 points and listing price has a pattern depending on use year. Best guess is someone who bought contracts to rent out, is cutting back on invetory or getting out of the game. I have no doubt this is the case at AKL and BW.

This is also happening at another website--told to me by a broker. There is a super seller there as well.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I actually can confirm the theory. I just talked to a broker and asked if these contracts are all from the same seller, the patterns are just too coincidental. He did confirm that many are the same seller. Ultimately, having one large seller sets a price floor on asking price, as other new contracts will probably price their listings accordingly.

Thanks for confirming the theory...actually I have heard it from a broker as well and another disboard friend has heard the same thing. I feel like I know the value of contracts and will just wait until I find one that is worth (in my mind, anyway) what I am paying for it.

 

[Brianstl]

This is also happening at another website--told to me by a broker. There is a super seller there as well.

Just like some other sellers, some super sellers will list the same contract on multiple sites.

 

[becauseimnew]

I hope those super sellers soon realize that their striped contracts are overpriced.

We are still looking to buy, but not a striped contract and not until after Disney has been opened for a few months. We want all this dust to settle.

 

[linzjane88]

Don't buy the Disney magic is gone after canceling my trip. They than tell me I cannot rebook till after November and only in the school year. That if I don't use those points by February they will be lost. because we banked them for this summers 2 week trip. But they canceled our trip due to covid and I understand that but no leeway in allowing us to use the points next summer which is what we asked they said NO. I will lose those points, even with the fact that will not allow use to rebook in an out of school time and due to availability, So DONT BUY they are thieves.
The magic is gone. They care more about Sales and money. So plan on making sure to get every dollar back ANY way I can.

It's kind of funny you keep posting this on the DVC price thread which is basically full of current owners, perfectly happy with their DVC ownership, and looking to add on more points at a great deal. I don't know that you are going to find what you are looking for here.

I will say, and it has been said by *many others* who have responded to you already, you can easily rent those points out and turn around and use that money for a trip of your preference. Or, if you are that angry, I know a couple people that would be thrilled with a new and fully loaded contract on the market

 

[RoseGold]

But they canceled our trip due to covid and I understand that but no leeway in allowing us to use the points next summer which is what we asked they said NO. I will lose those points, even with the fact that will not allow use to rebook in an out of school time and due to availability, So DONT BUY they are thieves.
The magic is gone. They care more about Sales and money. So plan on making sure to get every dollar back ANY way I can.

The obvious solution is to sell your DVC and spend your vacation dollars elsewhere. Even the biggest hit is only down 15%. Some, like SSR/AKL, have held value just fine. I don't think it's a terrible time to sell (which is why I'm not buying right now).

 

[lovethesun12]

I've expressed this thought several times (not so eloquently LOL) in the past month or two. For the most part, contracts that have a more normal pattern of usage over 19/20/21 seem to be owned by regular people not super owners. Also note that these stripped contracts get stale, seem to disappear after being reduced in price and then reappear as "new" for a few dollars less.

There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you. I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily. It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it may actually be. It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites. I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation. It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it. I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers. That contract is still available as of this morning! I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".

Are larger contracts (those with 250+ points) generally priced significantly lower than contracts of say 150 pts? I’m noticing now some are but I haven’t followed the market intensely prior to this so not certain about it.

We have made a decision to purchase, but for a larger number of points, even with a serious deal of $20 off per point an already low price it’s just not worth it right now for me to dive in until I’m *certain* I can travel or at the very least rent. I know most think the rental market will rebound (I’m sure it will as well) I’m just not certain *enough* that I could offload 250+ points in 2021 if I need to.

I do think the opinions on how quickly Disney will recover varies largely based on where people live. People living in places where travel is not restricted and can currently go to Disney are more likely to have a positive outlook. It’s hard to say what will happen in the end, but if I end up having to pay a few extra thousand because I waited for things to normalize I’m ok with that.

I can see why the smaller contracts are being eaten up. They’re less risky right now.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Smaller contracts are always less risky. Anything over 150-180 points IMO can be a liability to sell. 100 or under are the best IMO. If you are able to purchase 2-3 contracts in the same UY, even with increased closing costs you will be able to sell off more quickly and for a better price if you ever need to. Sometimes you can purchase a bundle of points (two contracts listed as one) which is a great deal. Some brokers are willing to contact sellers that have separate listings with them in order to sell as one - just ask. I've bought two bundles in the past so they do exist. I had one broker (I won't name) who had no idea what I was talking about...first day?

Hopefully you are considering an easy to get UY! Good luck!

 

[lovethesun12]

Smaller contracts are always less risky. Anything over 150-180 points IMO can be a liability to sell. 100 or under are the best IMO. If you are able to purchase 2-3 contracts in the same UY, even with increased closing costs you will be able to sell off more quickly and for a better price if you ever need to. Sometimes you can purchase a bundle of points (two contracts listed as one) which is a great deal. Some brokers are willing to contact sellers that have separate listings with them in order to sell as one - just ask. I've bought two bundles in the past so they do exist. I had one broker (I won't name) who had no idea what I was talking about...first day?

Hopefully you are considering an easy to get UY! Good luck!

Thanks!!! My preferred use year is December, but I would be okay with February or March as well... even April. So I think I have a lot of variety!

I’ve considered a bunch of small contracts but I’m finding now the pricing is so much better on the larger ones! I might settle for a 200pt and 150pt maybe. Or yes a few 100pt ones if the price comes down ever.

How can you tell if the seller is the same for multiple contracts so you can bundle?

 

[MICKIMINI]

Only the broker can tell you if the same seller owns multiple contracts. You can often surmise contracts are owned by the same seller often they are listed the same day, have the same UY and sometimes a similar use pattern. Even going with a 150 and a 200 or some mix is much safer. You can't sell a portion of your house, but if you own several DVC contracts, you can sell a portion of your vacation property if you need the cash or see a great opportunity to flip!

 

[deedubb]

Smaller contracts are always less risky. Anything over 150-180 points IMO can be a liability to sell. 100 or under are the best IMO. If you are able to purchase 2-3 contracts in the same UY, even with increased closing costs you will be able to sell off more quickly and for a better price if you ever need to. Sometimes you can purchase a bundle of points (two contracts listed as one) which is a great deal. Some brokers are willing to contact sellers that have separate listings with them in order to sell as one - just ask. I've bought two bundles in the past so they do exist. I had one broker (I won't name) who had no idea what I was talking about...first day?

Hopefully you are considering an easy to get UY! Good luck!

I agree. Small contracts such as 50 points are usually almost sold instantly and at a premium price. I have been watching the market lately and have seen some huge ones (eg. 700 points) and wondered how in the world they are ever going to sell it.

 

[lovethesun12]

I agree. Small contracts such as 50 points are usually almost sold instantly and at a premium price. I have been watching the market lately and have seen some huge ones (eg. 700 points) and wondered how in the world they are ever going to sell it.

So a 250pt Bay Lake Tower contract was posted on Fidelity for $100pp. I asked about it and now it's sold. Could someone please tell me why I'm wrong and it wasn't *that* low? Thanks. It was stripped btw.