Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

Only the broker can tell you if the same seller owns multiple contracts. You can often surmise contracts are owned by the same seller often they are listed the same day, have the same UY and sometimes a similar use pattern. Even going with a 150 and a 200 or some mix is much safer. You can't sell a portion of your house, but if you own several DVC contracts, you can sell a portion of your vacation property if you need the cash or see a great opportunity to flip!

There have been several times in the last few months that 3 to 7 contracts for the same resort, month and size have shown up the same day. I have assumed these were from a single seller.

 

[MICKIMINI]

There have been several times in the last few months that 3 to 7 contracts for the same resort, month and size have shown up the same day. I have assumed these were from a single seller.

What a memory!!!

 

[bookwormde]

What a memory!!!

I wish, just comprehensive spreadsheets

 

[deedubb]

So a 250pt Bay Lake Tower contract was posted on Fidelity for $100pp. I asked about it and now it's sold. Could someone please tell me why I'm wrong and it wasn't *that* low? Thanks. It was stripped btw.

Stripped or not, that's an insanely low price. Definitely priced to sell which makes me think they were desperate.

 

[Kenito]

Stripped or not, that's an insanely low price. Definitely priced to sell which makes me think they were desperate.

I get their newsletters and saw that $100 price. They sent a follow up newsletter a few hours later saying the $100 was a mistake and it was corrected in the newsletter...but it doesn’t look corrected on their website. I don’t remember the actual price but I recall it wasn’t a great deal.

 

[deedubb]

I get their newsletters and saw that $100 price. They sent a follow up newsletter a few hours later saying the $100 was a mistake and it was corrected in the newsletter...but it doesn’t look corrected on their website. I don’t remember the actual price but I recall it wasn’t a great deal.

That makes more sense. Desperate or not, I can't imagine anyone listing that low unless it was for 1000 points or something.

 

[lovethesun12]

I get their newsletters and saw that $100 price. They sent a follow up newsletter a few hours later saying the $100 was a mistake and it was corrected in the newsletter...but it doesn’t look corrected on their website. I don’t remember the actual price but I recall it wasn’t a great deal.

I think you are discussing a different listing. This was a 100pt contract, that had a list price of $100 and a total price of $13500. There was a follow up email that the price was suppose to be $135.

I wrote an agent about both (the 100pt one a few days ago, the 250pt one today). After I wrote about the first one an email was sent out immediately with a correction.

I wrote about the 250pt one as well because the points/years were listed 0 2019, 0 2021, 0 2021 rather than 2019, 2020, and 2021. She told me there was no error in the pricing but it was sold.

 

[Kenito]

I think you are discussing a different listing. This was a 100pt contract, that had a list price of $100 and a total price of $13500. There was a follow up email that the price was suppose to be $135.

I wrote an agent about both (the 100pt one a few days ago, the 250pt one today). After I wrote about the first one an email was sent out immediately with a correction.

I wrote about the 250pt one as well because the points/years were listed 0 2019, 0 2021, 0 2021 rather than 2019, 2020, and 2021. She told me there was no error in the pricing but it was sold.

oops, my bad!

 

[JoshF]

Thanks!!! My preferred use year is December, but I would be okay with February or March as well... even April. So I think I have a lot of variety!

I’ve considered a bunch of small contracts but I’m finding now the pricing is so much better on the larger ones! I might settle for a 200pt and 150pt maybe. Or yes a few 100pt ones if the price comes down ever.

How can you tell if the seller is the same for multiple contracts so you can bundle?

What makes one use year more valuable than another? I'm not understanding.

 

[deedubb]

What makes one use year more valuable than another? I'm not understanding.

Some people choose a specific UY depending upon when they like to travel. It has implications if you suddenly need to cancel your trip. Some people choose a specific UY because they already have one or more contracts in that UY and they want a matching one so that they have one contract instead of multiple ones, which can make it simpler to keep track of things.

 

[JoshF]

It is strange. AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market. AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?

For reference:

Resort	Total Points
Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo	1,803,844
Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani	5,595,400
Aulani	11,519,025
Beach Club Villas	3,027,124
Bay Lake Tower	5,732,762
Boardwalk Villas	4,888,837
Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge	1,961,969
Copper Creek Cabin & Villas	3,321,966
Hilton Head Island	1,368,962
Old Key West	7,674,852
Polynesian Villas and Bungalows	4,032,720
Saratoga Springs Resort	13,124,069
Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas	905,250
Vero Beach	1,616,438
Villas at Grand Californian	1,136,865
Villas at Grand Floridian	2,520,379

Where is this data pulled from and what does it represent?

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Where is this data pulled from and what does it represent?

It's the total number of points if you add up all of the contracts Disney has sold. That table is broke out a bit weird (Jambo/Kidani or Treehouse Villas aren't separate contract categories)... I can't remember the source but it seems like it's published on a few different websites:
https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018
I just thought it was interesting because, for example, there is roughly half as many points in AKL as there are at SSR. Assuming everyone took similar contract sizes between the two resorts, you would expect twice as many SSR contracts for sale as AKL... but the AKL contracts seem to be much less common than that.

 

[RoseGold]

$100 BLT is still only 1/3 off of the $150 high. I think it's reasonable for prices to get there.

 

[Lorana]

It's the total number of points if you add up all of the contracts Disney has sold. That table is broke out a bit weird (Jambo/Kidani or Treehouse Villas aren't separate contract categories)... I can't remember the source but it seems like it's published on a few different websites:
https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018
I just thought it was interesting because, for example, there is roughly half as many points in AKL as there are at SSR. Assuming everyone took similar contract sizes between the two resorts, you would expect twice as many SSR contracts for sale as AKL... but the AKL contracts seem to be much less common than that.

I wonder if a factor of that has to do with the fact that many people (though not all) buy SSR for sleep around points, but people who buy AKL generally do so because they want to own at that resort. The emotional factor could play a part.

 

[bookwormde]

6/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 110-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[lovethesun12]

$100 BLT is still only 1/3 off of the $150 high. I think it's reasonable for prices to get there.

The agent did tell me that was the correct pricing and it was sold.

I would be surprised if the cost of stripped contracts especially don't start to drop (like this one did!) soon. The current restrictions make it less likely people will be able to borrow what they need for a trip so might skip over them (not to mention, people are probably less likely to borrow with the uncertainty of the pandemic).

 

[MICKIMINI]

All of a sudden there are many more loaded contracts "sitting" for days or weeks which IMO will finally devalue those stripped contracts as the loaded become more common. The market has been bloated with stripped, super owner contracts but I do think the tide is turning... Several AKL's hit this morning including a little 25 pointer but all are wrong UY for me!

 

[BWV Dreamin]

All of a sudden there are many more loaded contracts "sitting" for days or weeks which IMO will finally devalue those stripped contracts as the loaded become more common. The market has been bloated with stripped, super owner contracts but I do think the tide is turning... Several AKL's hit this morning including a little 25 pointer but all are wrong UY for me!

I feel in this current Covid situation, that banked or even current points are not an advantage in the resale pricing. Reservations are or will become harder to get due to the cancellations made by Disney. Will be harder to book or rent those points IMO. So dont drive up the price because of this. The tide has turned....

 

[lovethesun12]

I feel in this current Covid situation, that banked or even current points are not an advantage in the resale pricing. Reservations are or will become harder to get due to the cancellations made by Disney. Will be harder to book or rent those points IMO. So dont drive up the price because of this. The tide has turned....

I’ve passed over many banked contracts because if points have to be used by Dec/Feb/March by the time it closes I’d still have to find a renter and can’t guarantee that so it’s not worth the risk (again, not saying people who have contracts won’t be able to do that, just that’s it’s not worth the risk for me even if it seems likely to someone else they could rent).

I feel like the rental market is going to shift to people being less likely to book in advance (unless maybe they have a direct agreement with an owner with points that can be banked/rescheduled), and more likely to book last minute for a quick deal.

 

[disneykim17]

MickiMini, under which resale site did you see the AKL 25 pointer?