Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Drewferin]

The prices they are reporting are the LISTED prices, however. Not what the contracts actually sold for.

Really?? Thats super misleading

 

[jotunheim]

Really?? Thats super misleading

No, they are actual sales prices. It states this right in the title.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-may-2020/

 

[Brianstl]

I would have far less confidence in the ROFR thread here than the official broker results, though it does not mean it does not have any value. It is human nature to celebrate the good and downplay the bad. Anyone that knows they "overpaid" or was on the high end of the spectrum on a resale transaction is not very likely to post it there. Prime anecdotal evidence is when people tell you how they did pressing their luck at the casino.

Well you could say that resale brokers have an incentive to manipulate their data, too. We saw that with a broker on this site last week. The DVC resale market sadly lacks the same easy to access transparency as the regular real estate market.

 

[Lorana]

I don't think that's right. I've been tracking listed prices as they sell and I have the average listing price at sale for DVC Resale Market higher for May. For example, I have SSR at $102 average listed price at sale, they have average selling price at $98. I have Poly at $143 average listing price at sale, they have it at $140 average selling price. I'm sure I missed some contracts that were listed and sold between 2 checks, but its a pretty consistent pattern.

Also, they say that it's the sale price.

No, they are actual sales prices. It states this right in the title.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-may-2020/

I stand corrected, then. Though it's honestly hard to know if they are reporting actual sales, since like all brokers, they don't disclose the actual selling price.

 

[G.C.]

In terms of actual prices, until ROFR turns back on, in theory this should be simply a supply and demand driven market.

However, we also know that DVC can be an emotional purchase and we have a few positive demand factors. States are in various stages of reopening, the initial plan to reopen the parks is in place, and the equity markets have recovered far quicker than I, for one, anticipated. Demand “feels” strong.

I’m starting to wonder if prices have stabilized at worst (or best, depending on your perspective) until/unless these factors like the virus, economy, ROFR move the needle.

 

[poofyo101]

In terms of actual prices, until ROFR turns back on, in theory this should be simply a supply and demand driven market.

However, we also know that DVC can be an emotional purchase and we have a few positive demand factors. States are in various stages of reopening, the initial plan to reopen the parks is in place, and the equity markets have recovered far quicker than I, for one, anticipated. Demand “feels” strong.

I’m starting to wonder if prices have stabilized at worst (or best, depending on your perspective) until/unless these factors like the virus, economy, ROFR move the needle.

They have been basically stable the entire time. Some people tend to think that they have gone down. I tend to disagree.

 

[bookwormde]

6/4 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220-240% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Miffy]

Just curious, since someone upthread mentioned owners of fixed weeks. What accommodation did Disney make for owners of fixed-week DVC contracts whose fixed weeks occurred during the closure?

 

[CarolMN]

Just curious, since someone upthread mentioned owners of fixed weeks. What accommodation did Disney make for owners of fixed-week DVC contracts whose fixed weeks occurred during the closure?

We don't know if there even were any fixed weeks purchased for the closure period.

That said, I don't know why they would treat such a reservation any differently than they did other reservations set to occur during the closure. So cancel it, return the points and treat the returned points the same way other points in similar situations were treated.

 

[Miffy]

We don't know if there even were any fixed weeks purchased for the closure period.

That said, I don't know why they would treat such a reservation any differently than they did other reservations set to occur during the closure. So cancel it, return the points and treat the returned points the same way other points in similar situations were treated.

Thanks, @CarolMN. I was especially curious because I've always thought that if I'd buy DVC, I'd buy a fixed week (or two).

 

[striker1064]

Thanks, @CarolMN. I was especially curious because I've always thought that if I'd buy DVC, I'd buy a fixed week (or two).

Fixed week owners can choose to cancel their week that year at anytime, and the points would be returned for usual bookings just like any other points.

I can't imagine this closure period was a particularly popular one for fixed weeks, although I guess a runDisney week for Star Wars is possible. But most likely, the week was cancelled and the points were returned. Fixed weeks are always booked with current year points, so owners would still be able to bank as well.

 

[chalee94]

Ha this is exactly why it is so hard for me to go to WDW sometimes. The cost is immense so I always end up weighing it vs. the other options. It's amazing what experiences you sacrifice to go to WDW (this sacrifice particularly ramps with each subsequent trip).

I have 1 DVC contract and 1 non-DVC timeshare. It's nice to have a little balance. (I recommend visiting Kauai when things settle down a little... )

 

[glamdring269]

I have 1 DVC contract and 1 non-DVC timeshare. It's nice to have a little balance. (I recommend visiting Kauai when things settle down a little... )

We've been to Maui several times. Kauai is on the list we just always seem to gravitate to Maui. Need to do a Hawaiian split stay next trip!

 

[bookwormde]

6/5 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

6/6 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 110-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

6/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60-70% of average*

For the week of 6/1 to 6/7 newly posted resale contracts at about 170-190% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[CastAStone]

6/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60-70% of average*

For the week of 6/1 to 6/7 newly posted resale contracts at about 170-190% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

For what it's worth, the number of contracts actively for sale (not pending) on www.DVCResaleMarket.com is up about 10% in the last week. They've been noting their declining inventories for 2 months but it seems to have conclusively turned since they announced park reopenings.

 

[RoseGold]

Whew, a very tempting BLT now up, but I think prices are still going down.

 

[Galun]

I bought two more contracts in late March and posted my rationale here. Two double to triple banked points SSR contracts at $102, so I estimate the actual cost is low $70s per point (assuming I rent the banked points to Davids at around $15 per point).

https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...ices-are-headed.3797236/page-15#post-61747463
The stock market (the nasdaq at least) just made a new all time high today. I reached out to the broker to inquire about buying more contracts based on the prices I paid in March. He basically said no way to get that price anymore, trying to set my expectations higher. Actual prices might be flattening, but there are no more contracts with a lot of banked points, sellers are not desperate enough to not get paid for the value of banked points.

So that's a datapoint. I personally think the bottom in DVC price was set a month or two ago. DVC is a real estate interest. Sure, it's definitely a luxury item, but it's still a real asset with a strong brand behind it. By the end of the year the Fed would have printed $3.5 trillion which is about 15% of the US GDP. With that amount of money being added to circulation, real asset prices have no where to go but up in the long run. That's why the stock market is approaching and in some cases exceeding all time highs. Value of DVC, despite some short term volatility, will follow.

 

[Brianstl]

I bought two more contracts in late March and posted my rationale here. Two double to triple banked points SSR contracts at $102, so I estimate the actual cost is low $70s per point (assuming I rent the banked points to Davids at around $15 per point).

https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...ices-are-headed.3797236/page-15#post-61747463
The stock market (the nasdaq at least) just made a new all time high today. I reached out to the broker to inquire about buying more contracts based on the prices I paid in March. He basically said no way to get that price anymore, trying to set my expectations higher. Actual prices might be flattening, but there are no more contracts with a lot of banked points, sellers are not desperate enough to not get paid for the value of banked points.

So that's a datapoint. I personally think the bottom in DVC price was set a month or two ago. DVC is a real estate interest. Sure, it's definitely a luxury item, but it's still a real asset with a strong brand behind it. By the end of the year the Fed would have printed $3.5 trillion which is about 15% of the US GDP. With that amount of money being added to circulation, real asset prices have no where to go but up in the long run. That's why the stock market is approaching and in some cases exceeding all time highs. Value of DVC, despite some short term volatility, will follow.

There is an active double point SSR with an asking price of $105 right now. My guess is you could get that for less than you paid in late March.