Why do I torture myself?

[SaintsManiac]

This article gives an explanation of why they use the data that they do, and even dives into the downfalls of depending on wait times: https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/02/12/crowd-calendar-4-1/

I don't think at all that it is intentionally misleading, as when they created the crowd calendars the correlation between wait time and general crowds was much clearer. Plus their continued transparency around where the crowd levels are coming from is meant to be the opposite of misleading. Besides, if they were in the business of trying to squeeze money out of their subscriptions, they would charge more than $12 per year.

As for "guess" I think it's just a matter of semantics between us. I see a guess as something that is determined with little to no data, like going off a gut feeling or just pulling a number from nowhere. When I see that a decision or prediction has been made using concrete and complete sets of data, I don't think of it as a guess. But that's just verbage

I think we're just at a point where it is incredibly difficult to predict crowd levels, no matter what the method.

I agree about the semantics. I just wish that people wouldn't treat these predictions as gospel. It causes stress when planning a WDW vacation should be fun.

 

[yulilin3]

This article gives an explanation of why they use the data that they do, and even dives into the downfalls of depending on wait times: https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/02/12/crowd-calendar-4-1/

I don't think at all that it is intentionally misleading, as when they created the crowd calendars the correlation between wait time and general crowds was much clearer. Plus their continued transparency around where the crowd levels are coming from is meant to be the opposite of misleading. Besides, if they were in the business of trying to squeeze money out of their subscriptions, they would charge more than $12 per year.

As for "guess" I think it's just a matter of semantics between us. I see a guess as something that is determined with little to no data, like going off a gut feeling or just pulling a number from nowhere. When I see that a decision or prediction has been made using concrete and complete sets of data, I don't think of it as a guess. But that's just verbage

I think we're just at a point where it is incredibly difficult to predict crowd levels, no matter what the method.

100% agree.
Without having read the article but having 20 years as a local ap who visits frequently I can tell you that crowds have been basically pretty much unpredictable.
People no longer wait for kids vacation to come, many more kids are now home schooled or parents don't mind pulling them out of school for a couple of days.
Disney now closes tracks, sends fewer boats, cuts CMs depending on their predictions on crowds, thus making some lines longer than they should be if the ride was operating at full capacity
Lack of entertainment and parades makes more people go on rides also making rides longer or people just linger around without a place to go making the parks feel busier

I see crowd calendar and predictions like weather forecasts, yesterday it was calling for 70% chance of rain in Orlando, this morning it is down to 30%....there;s just no way to predict long term or even short term.

 

[TISHLOVESDISNEY]

Yeah, I don't put too much into it.
Odd tho, I have 3 trips planned, and January went up, but March went down a few days, and then the week after July 4th went way down. I am figuring it goes up with free dining, so was shocked by that...

 

[Klayfish]

This article gives an explanation of why they use the data that they do, and even dives into the downfalls of depending on wait times: https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/02/12/crowd-calendar-4-1/

I don't think at all that it is intentionally misleading, as when they created the crowd calendars the correlation between wait time and general crowds was much clearer. Plus their continued transparency around where the crowd levels are coming from is meant to be the opposite of misleading. Besides, if they were in the business of trying to squeeze money out of their subscriptions, they would charge more than $12 per year.

As for "guess" I think it's just a matter of semantics between us. I see a guess as something that is determined with little to no data, like going off a gut feeling or just pulling a number from nowhere. When I see that a decision or prediction has been made using concrete and complete sets of data, I don't think of it as a guess. But that's just verbage

I think we're just at a point where it is incredibly difficult to predict crowd levels, no matter what the method.

Yeah, I hear what you're saying and those are good points...and there could be some semantics in there. My feeling then is that if they're being completely transparent about it, then why still call it a "crowd" calendar, when it clearly isn't? Call it a wait time calendar.

I don't think past data can be used to predict future crowds at WDW. Again, very broad generalizations sure, but not day-to-day.

I agree with SaintsManiac that it's a shame some people take it as gospel, or even plan around it. There are repeated comments on these boards like "Well, TP says tomorrow will be a 9, so I'll go to another park" or "I use the crowd calendar just so I can get some idea what the crowd size will be". I think that's a shame to do, as those predictions are just a wild stab in the dark.

 

[DWFamilyof6]

I may read the article. I haven't decided yet. I'm just disappointed more with myself. My family and I had two choices for our '19 trip due to other extended family vacations being planned and my husbands work schedule. Spring break week (Easter week) or take the kids out a few days of school ahead of our Mardi Gras break. I chose the latter mostly based on the crowds would be better than spring break. Now I assume it really didn't matter at all, plus I probably would have had better park hours during spring break. However I have planned to do DAH and EMM for our trip. I know it will be an amazing trip (we are at Disney, duh!) but the uber planner side of me hates the sketchiness of the crowd calendars just changing willy nilly. Next time I plan I won't be using crowd calendars. Its just a waste of time and effort.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Yeah, I don't put too much into it.
Odd tho, I have 3 trips planned, and January went up, but March went down a few days, and then the week after July 4th went way down. I am figuring it goes up with free dining, so was shocked by that...

Yep my email was long thanks to having 3 trips booked. I laughed at the numbers right after July 4.

 

[Rhianna.07]

I wouldn’t listen to the crowd calendars too much. They can be helpful but a lot of the time they just can’t fully know until that week or that day how crowded it will be. If you would’ve went during spring break it would’ve been much, much worse so you chose the right time.

 

[TheMick424]

Love waking up to such a great uplifting email from TP. I received two updated park crowds predictions at 12:30 am and 1:20 am. My end of Feb to beginning of March trip went from 4s and 6s crowd predictions to 8s, 9s and 10s. Explain to me how that even makes sense? Why have crowd predictions 6 mo out if less than two months your going to change them to a 10. At this point I'm second guessing why didn't I just choose spring break? At least it would be 10s with much longer park hours.
Just looking for some moral support here, lol!

I'm in the same situation and had the same reaction. We typically go during end of April during our kids' break, but given the timing of the Easter holiday, moved it up to their February break. Now, I'm second guessing that decision, especially after booking all of the FP+. Sigh...guess we will just roll with the punches, but am not looking forward to seeing a crowd level 10. I pray that it is unseasonably warm so at least we can use the pool more.

 

[charliebrown]

After reading the blog post, it seems like the cause of a lot of the crowd level increases, particularly at the being of this year, is related to staff cut backs during slower seasons. This also means that attractions will have fewer ride vehicles operating, resulting in lower ride capacity.
So, basically, the amount of people in the parks should be low, however ride wait times should increase because the rides aren't running at full capacity. Don't expect a mosh pit on Main Street, but also don't expect to walk on every ride you see.

Im going to assume that they are also over emphasizing crowd levels, since this is relatively new information that hasn't fully been tested.

 

[Queen of the WDW Scene]

Crowd calendars are crap in my opinion.
10 years ago they may have been a bit more accurate but anyone could have told you the exact times it would or would not be crowded 10 years ago.
Disney has changed, guests have changed, peak times have shifted, these companies that have crowd calendars are doing little more than compoletely guessing.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I understand they aren’t guaranteed, but they shouldn’t be “guessing”. There should be some sort of science behind it. And, I feel like they should have a better idea of cohesiveness from 6mo, 5 mo, 3 mo to 52 days out and so on. Is it just blank amount of FPS are gone so far so we’ll up the crowns predictions...

There is statistics behind it. And in my opinion it's the difference between getting up each morning and saying, "it's winter in Chicago, it will be cold" versus looking at the weather channel who analyze past trends, the gulf stream, the cloud formation and create models that account for those. If I wake up and my gut feel is that it's cold, I'm going to be right a lot of the time. But I'm going to not be prepared in days when it's so cold it's below zero or on days like this coming weekend when it's probably going to be 50. If you don't want to pay the $12 to have a little more info and you're fine carrying around your coat, hat, and mittens all day when your didn't need them and you want to carry them every day just in case it's a 0 degree day ("it's always busy at Disney") then either approach is fine. Both ways will be wrong sometimes, but the way backed up by data will be wrong less. It's personal preference at that point. So you care to have more data. A lot of people don't. Or get so wrapped around the axle about small changes they probably shouldn't (I'm guilty of obsessing over percent chance of rain myself).

By definition, it HAS to be a guess. The data for the number of people in MK on July 13th 2019 literally doesn't exist yet, so they have to be guessing. They can try to claim to use all kinds of past data and economic factors, etc...but at the end of the day it's a guess. Personally, I think it has zero statistical value. You can give very broad generalizations, such as Xmas is the busiest week of the year. But to try to say what a crowd will be on a random Thursday in June is silly. Far, far too many variables that simply can't be accounted for.

And the fact that the "crowd calendar" isn't even mostly based on actual crowd size, rather on ride wait times is deceptively misleading, IMO. Why call it a crowd calendar if you aren't actually predicting crowds specifically? Why not call it a wait time calendar? Is that intentional, to try to get people to buy it?

On the topic of crowd calendar versus wait time calendar, my experience is that wait time matters a whole lot more to me than how many people are on the walkways. We went to Uni the week of Thanksgiving. TP had actual crowd levels at 10 two of our days. I did not care because we had EP. Yes there were people around and yes, we needed to plan our meals carefully but other than that I didn't care at all about the crowds because I didn't have to wait and knew I wasn't going to have to wait. I would not want to be at Disney that week. I'd rather be home than go to Disney on a crowd level 10 day. But not because I have to walk through a crowd of people but because I don't want to spend my day in line (and yes, refresh but it's not guaranteed and I don't have the same experience with it always working as others). Everyone's mileage on that may vary but I don't think that creating a calendar based on how long you're going to wait is somehow bad or misleading.

 

[Sparkly]

All I know is, we shouldn't have chosen our dates because the Princess Half Marathon is right in the middle of our trip. Oh well, at least we've been in September so it doesn't matter. I don't think it'll be too bad anyway.

 

[SarahC97]

I read the blog post and I'm skeptical. As someone who was there last January/February, the ride capacity was down making the lines longer for sure, but there also were just a lot of people there. It was really difficult to navigate the parks. One morning, I was sitting on one of the benches in Tomorrowland and people were literally stepping on me because it was so crowded. We went 4 times last year and Jan/Feb honestly felt the same to me crowd-wise (but with lower wait times) as Thanksgiving week was.

 

[DWFamilyof6]

I'm in the same situation and had the same reaction. We typically go during end of April during our kids' break, but given the timing of the Easter holiday, moved it up to their February break. Now, I'm second guessing that decision, especially after booking all of the FP+. Sigh...guess we will just roll with the punches, but am not looking forward to seeing a crowd level 10. I pray that it is unseasonably warm so at least we can use the pool more.

That’s my thought. Hoping for warm pool weather! We’ll have fun no matter.

 

[lcc2]

Woke up to the same email. I picked our dates based on kids schedule and not based on crowd levels. For me, TP is a tool and I don’t rely heavily on the info provided. But I can see how this is frustrating for people.

 

[DWFamilyof6]

Woke up to the same email. I picked our dates based on kids schedule and not based on crowd levels. For me, TP is a tool and I don’t rely heavily on the info provided. But I can see how this is frustrating for people.

Yes, I’m changing my mindset. I got all the FPS I wanted, we are doing two new special events we’ve never done before, trying out a couple new dining reservations, it’s going to be great.

 

[Belia]

Scootch over, because I'm sitting on that bench with you. ARGH.

 

[MonaMN]

I also think this is a helpful point of data - looking at school breaks.

** Apparently I can't post the link, but Dave over at Your First Visit has an analysis on this.

https://**************.net/2018/06/24/disney-world-spring-break-crowds-in-2019/

For our dates, it's mostly AK/HS that have high numbers - which feels like TSL and FoP/Navi might be skewing things if you base on wait times. We shall see... it's all about making a plan.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I also meant to say that the post from Len always says that when they have updated info they feel it's better to share it than to not share it. I think that's appropriate. I also think that the issue with changes within 60 and 30 days is that they are looking at the number of FPs available and using that refine their estimates. I would personally rather know that. That along with Disney's daily price point are probably some of the most reliable indicators available to the general public. And despite all my defending of data, I do believe that the first week of March numbers are going to come down again. I really don't think it's going to be a CL 10 week. Also, looking at my own week, there is no way that a Sun in May is going to be a CL 1. It dropped from a 4 so I fully expect that to go back up again. HS an AK went a few points higher on Thurs and Fri which makes sense to me. There was a trend early last year of AK having a little bit higher crowd levels toward the end of the week which makes sense given that people are moving their AK dates later in their trips to have a better chance at FPs for FOP. I would believe that trends still holds (given they are still hard to get) and I would think that SDD does the same for HS. But again, both gut feels and data can be wrong, it's just a matter of how often and at what point it doesn't make sense to care about the data anymore.

 

[tylerzmommy]

I also woke up to that email for our trip in 2 weeks. Frustrating because we are now in HS on a day that's targeted to be 10/10 where it was previously a 3 or 4. OUCH!