Why do I torture myself?

[Wubar]

I understand they aren’t guaranteed, but they shouldn’t be “guessing”. There should be some sort of science behind it. And, I feel like they should have a better idea of cohesiveness from 6mo, 5 mo, 3 mo to 52 days out and so on. Is it just blank amount of FPS are gone so far so we’ll up the crowns predictions...

For all anyone knows, there may have been some scientific reasoning behind these predictions, some crazy algorithm based on historical data. That alone isn't enough to account for any outliers or significant changes in future crowds - new park/attraction openings, discounts, rise in disposable income, corresponding tourist events, etc etc. Better to just be prepared to handle any crowd levels and try and have a good time regardless. Those people scouring the internet for every chance of finding possible times where every ride is a walk on are only setting themselves up for disappointment when they find out more than 10 people decided to walk through the gates on the same dates of their trip.

Like others have previously noted, those sites provide estimates, not guarantees. Grains of salt should be handed out with every mouse click trip to those crowd level comparison webpages.

 

[rajak73]

My new motto

Hakuna Matata!!

 

[SaintsManiac]

It annoys me to no end that they lead people to believe there are "slow weeks." Then they send an email like that and everything explodes with people freaking out.

I wish people didn't pay attention to crowd calendars.

 

[poooh]

I try not to focus on them too much anymore. Key word being "try". All of the predictions have been so far off lately that maybe I should plan a trip on some level 10 days and get lucky? lol

 

[SarahC97]

I was done putting any stock in crowd calendars after our trip last January/February. It was significantly more crowded than anticipated. I expect it to be the same this year even though many bloggers say last winter was a fluke.

 

[darlaya]

I woke up to the same emails for drastic changes to my trip next week. AK went from a 1 to an 8. Overall, it shows it is going to be much more crowded every day. I am not going to let this affect my anticipation for a wonderful week at Disney...after all, I am going to Disney. I am staying on-site, I have fast passes in place and my plan is to upgrade my pass to an Annual Pass when I arrive to give me more flexibility with my touring. I file the touring plan info as "good to know", have plans in place and then let the magic of Disney guide my way

 

[nkereina]

I don't know the reasoning behind this, but I know over on the DL forums there has been talk of expecting higher than normal crowd levels before Star Wars land opens. This is because people will want to get in a trip before the massive crowds takeover, and also because those with APs will have to contend with blackout dates once its open. Star Wars land at WDW opens later than the one at DL, but perhaps the same is true there.

 

[SarahC97]

I understand they aren’t guaranteed, but they shouldn’t be “guessing”. There should be some sort of science behind it. And, I feel like they should have a better idea of cohesiveness from 6mo, 5 mo, 3 mo to 52 days out and so on. Is it just blank amount of FPS are gone so far so we’ll up the crowns predictions...

Part of the reason crowd calendars have become obsolete is because Disney doesn't share information like it used to. There's really no way for anyone but Disney to know what they expect 6 months out.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Part of the reason crowd calendars have become obsolete is because Disney doesn't share information like it used to. There's really no way for anyone but Disney to know what they expect 6 months out.

That's why they should put "10s" on every day of the year and then go down. Maybe people would feel better lol.

 

[bookbabe626]

I got two emails from them this morning...the first raised all the levels for our February, April and May trips, and the second dropped a bunch of the levels for our September trip. I’m like a few of the others who posted, we got when we can go and try not to worry too much about the potential crowds or weather.

 

[dolewhipdreams]

So I just received an email from TP updating crowd levels for the week of 3/6-3/12 the levels show dramatic increases from levels of 5 and 6 jumping to 9-10! Anyone know why this might be???? I'm considering canceling our trip as it sounds like holiday level crowds.

I understand they aren’t guaranteed, but they shouldn’t be “guessing”. There should be some sort of science behind it. And, I feel like they should have a better idea of cohesiveness from 6mo, 5 mo, 3 mo to 52 days out and so on. Is it just blank amount of FPS are gone so far so we’ll up the crowns predictions...

For all anyone knows, there may have been some scientific reasoning behind these predictions, some crazy algorithm based on historical data. That alone isn't enough to account for any outliers or significant changes in future crowds - new park/attraction openings, discounts, rise in disposable income, corresponding tourist events, etc etc. Better to just be prepared to handle any crowd levels and try and have a good time regardless. Those people scouring the internet for every chance of finding possible times where every ride is a walk on are only setting themselves up for disappointment when they find out more than 10 people decided to walk through the gates on the same dates of their trip.

Like others have previously noted, those sites provide estimates, not guarantees. Grains of salt should be handed out with every mouse click trip to those crowd level comparison webpages.

FWIW, TP is completely data driven. Nothing they do is based on guess, but on historical data that they've been collecting and analyzing for years and most of it is around wait times for attractions. Things that boost attendance but not necessarily wait times (I'm thinking an event like Dapper Day, where most people just come to the park, hang out, and take photos) will obviously skew the data. Generally when there is an update, they write an article explaining it so I'll be watching their blog to see how they explain it. Maybe they've found a way to incorporate things like that. I'm not sure.

I definitely agree that there were some incredibly drastic changes, but I'm with the majority opinion here on just finding dates that work for you and dealing with whatever crowds. In my experience it's hard to tell the difference of any crowd between a 3/4-7 anyway. But a 1 to 9 jump...that's interesting. Hopefully they won't keep us in the dark for long!

 

[gharter]

I got 2 similar emails from TouringPlans this am as well. Some days went up and some down.
This far out, I don't put much faith in them, but I still look at them anyway.
I guess it just gives me an idea of how crowded it will be. I just plan it will be crowded an anyhting less is a bonus.

 

[Klayfish]

FWIW, TP is completely data driven. Nothing they do is based on guess, but on historical data that they've been collecting and analyzing for years and most of it is around wait times for attractions.

By definition, it HAS to be a guess. The data for the number of people in MK on July 13th 2019 literally doesn't exist yet, so they have to be guessing. They can try to claim to use all kinds of past data and economic factors, etc...but at the end of the day it's a guess. Personally, I think it has zero statistical value. You can give very broad generalizations, such as Xmas is the busiest week of the year. But to try to say what a crowd will be on a random Thursday in June is silly. Far, far too many variables that simply can't be accounted for.

And the fact that the "crowd calendar" isn't even mostly based on actual crowd size, rather on ride wait times is deceptively misleading, IMO. Why call it a crowd calendar if you aren't actually predicting crowds specifically? Why not call it a wait time calendar? Is that intentional, to try to get people to buy it?

 

[dolewhipdreams]

By definition, it HAS to be a guess. The data for the number of people in MK on July 13th 2019 literally doesn't exist yet, so they have to be guessing. They can try to claim to use all kinds of past data and economic factors, etc...but at the end of the day it's a guess. Personally, I think it has zero statistical value. You can give very broad generalizations, such as Xmas is the busiest week of the year. But to try to say what a crowd will be on a random Thursday in June is silly. Far, far too many variables that simply can't be accounted for.

And the fact that the "crowd calendar" isn't even mostly based on actual crowd size, rather on ride wait times is deceptively misleading, IMO. Why call it a crowd calendar if you aren't actually predicting crowds specifically? Why not call it a wait time calendar? Is that intentional, to try to get people to buy it?

This article gives an explanation of why they use the data that they do, and even dives into the downfalls of depending on wait times: https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/02/12/crowd-calendar-4-1/

I don't think at all that it is intentionally misleading, as when they created the crowd calendars the correlation between wait time and general crowds was much clearer. Plus their continued transparency around where the crowd levels are coming from is meant to be the opposite of misleading. Besides, if they were in the business of trying to squeeze money out of their subscriptions, they would charge more than $12 per year.

As for "guess" I think it's just a matter of semantics between us. I see a guess as something that is determined with little to no data, like going off a gut feeling or just pulling a number from nowhere. When I see that a decision or prediction has been made using concrete and complete sets of data, I don't think of it as a guess. But that's just verbage

I think we're just at a point where it is incredibly difficult to predict crowd levels, no matter what the method.

 

[epcotbob]

I’ve tried to use the crowd calendars in the past, and have pretty much given up on them. I think it’s just getting harder to predict. My general rule now is to avoid the EMH parks and the ones holding a unique parade or special, non ticketed event.

Interestingly, I found Magic Kingdom to be the lowest crowds during the day that they would close early for ticketed Christmas or Halloween events.

 

[dolewhipdreams]

Just saw this over on the news board, but Len has confirmed that a blog post will be coming out soon to explain the changes.

 

[scrappinginontario]

From Len's Twitter:



I tend to find TP to be accurate with their predictions and will continue to use them as my primary source when determining which parks to visit on a particular day.

I'd rather go in with a realistic idea of what crowds might be than to be shocked when they're higher than I thought. If they're smaller...bonus!!

 

[ZellyB]

Blog post explanation is up https://blog.touringplans.com/2019/01/04/disney-world-crowd-calendar-update-for-january-2019/

 

[Brett Wyman]

February(week of 24th) and September(week of 22nd)trips, levels drop. November trip levels(week of 17th) went WAY WAY up!

 

[tinkerbelletreasure]

Interesting that everyone is complaining about the crowd calendar going up. We are scheduled for March 15-23 which is our Spring Break. My emails today raised crowns to an 8 the first weekend of our trip, but overall crowds dropped to a 6 the rest of the trip. I wonder if Spring Break schedules aren’t as concentrated in one week this year. But this will be my 3rd Spring Break trip, so I know what it’s typically like, and I’m not sweating it either way.