OP - Just letting you know I tortured myself after reading your post, even though I only have one day at Disney. We're visiting relatives in both Tampa and Orlando and doing Busch Gardens and SeaWorld too on a short trip that week. I'm a bit anal on trip planning and made extra work for myself, and in the end am just keeping my current plans and am really fine with that. I'll let you know my story, though. You are not alone in second guessing and might be one of only a few people out there who can appreciate this.
I'm there the same week and if anything I am disappointed that I didn't use my own judgement knowing that first week in March was Mardi Gras and pick the week before or week after instead. I first was looking at the third week in March in case anyone in my family was going to take a class for fun at the community college, etc. but as that was a popular spring break week in my city, airfare was out of site and not in my budget for this trip. I then thought of the first week in March, but wasn't so sure because of Mardi Gras, but I looked at airfares that were good, Disney hours and prices were lower than other weeks in March, hotel prices were slightly lower than other weeks in March, and the TP calendar had lower crowd predictions than other March weeks too. I looked at the
undercover tourist crowd calendar too and saw lower numbers than other weeks in March. I thought all these were signs better than my own judgement that Mardi Gras wouldn't affect crowds too much this year and thought maybe that was because Mardi Gras was later than usual, so I booked things for this week. This I believe was my mistake, and if I would do it again, I would avoid Mardi Gras.
I'm disappointed that TP didn't anticipate Mardi Gras ahead of time, given that I hear they look at spring break schedules and things like that too. I guess I should maybe instead of being disappointed say wow --at least they went back and did the update after 60 day FP numbers came out. With my MK day now being a 10 (I've done Christmas week five times and really don't care for 10s - I don't go that week anymore.), I looked at changing to a different week. I am flying Southwest so can change without penalty, but I have to pay the fare differences. At this later date, though, cheaper airfares are gone for the week before and after, and I don't want to pay the extra (doesn't seem worth it to try to up my budget that much). I redid my custom plan too with TP and that gave me some comfort, and even on that 10 day it's not that bad with our skipping Peter Pan and 7DMT. I'm anticipating that I'll still be able to get fastpasses at the 30 day mark for three other popular rides. DS 23 and I both took at the updated plan (longer waits predicted than before for sure), but thought it still looked fine.
But did I stop there -- no I didn't (anal trip planning personality). I then asked DS if maybe we should move onsite for EMHs (We were still 60 days before our MK day and our day has evening extra magic hours that we can't participate in). He said let's check what our options would be in our budget. So we looked at Disney onsite options for our date. I looked at the Swan and Dolphin too and all the Disney Springs hotels. The POP and All Star Movies would be options. The POP was the same price as my current hotel, Marriott Residence Inn SeaWorld. All Star movies was cheaper. Art of Animation was not available for my dates, and all moderates, the Swan, and the Dolphin were well above budget. Disney Springs hotels all ended up being above budget with resort fees, etc. but I pulled one to show DS in case we wanted to up the budget for that, as the Hilton had ok reviews and wasn't that far above budget, so I considered this to be on the table. DS looked at photos of all star movie, the POP, and the Disney Springs place. In the end, he thought just stay with our current accommodations that he thought looked better than all of these. The place we are staying was recently remodeled, includes breakfast, has a kitchen, a nicer looking more tropical pool area, and a nice large hot tub area. We get a freebie quick queue at SeaWorld too, but really and truly you don't need that at that park. He thought if we were doing a Disney day each day of our trip instead of just our one day at the MK that it would be tempting to move to the POP for EMH and earlier fastpasses given the busy week. Most of our stuff this trip is non Disney though.
I'm guessing / hoping that a Mardi Gras 10 is not as bad as a Christmas week 10. Christmas week really and truly is crazy/insane. At least DH isn't going. He hates crowds. DS and I both love Disney and can have fun even if it's insane/crazy. But less insane and crazy would sure be nice.
Sorry for the long rant. I figure though there are probably some other Disney loving compulsive planners on this forum who maybe can relate to this.