Did you say Q3 of 2021?
Fauci said the vaccine could roll out in January, possibly even Dec/2020
If its Q3 of 2021, you can kiss all DCL cruises goodbye for 2021. And pretty much life, as well.
Keep in mind the numbers Pfizer themselves has released.
Per the Pfizer statement announcing their preliminary 90% success: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...d-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against :
"Based on current projections we expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021."
And then consider that the limited available doses have to be divided up amongst the countries that have pre-ordered doses [according to some unknown to the public rationale]. These are the publicaly known numbers for who has bought how many doses according to a variety of media sources [keep in mind 2 doses are needed to fully vaccinate one person]:
EU - 300 million doses
Canada - 20 million doses with option for more [recently reserved extra 56 million doses]
USA - 100 million doses with option for 500 million more
UK - 30 million doses (some sources say 40 million)
Japan - 120 million doses for delivery 1st half 2021 (press release cites Olympics context)
The pre-ordered doses apparently account for over 80% of the total doses announced to be available by the end of 2021.
Bottom line is that in the early part of 2021 there is going to be a limited # available for each country, in part per their contract in part just based on the limited # of doses available, plus add in the logistic issues.
Pfizer hasn't said what their ramp-up of manufacturing will be like so it isn't clear how quickly they will be getting up to full production. Therefore not known if # of available doses will remain low early to mid of the year or ramp up really quickly. They are making the stuff right now but by the end of the year will only have 50 million doses... what does that mean for the early months of 2021 ??
Realistically, it therefore makes sense that one could well be looking at many months into 2021 before the general public would be looking at getting vaccinated... with corresponding implications for the cruise industry [though it is not clear right now what those will be.... e.g. will there be a phase in the return to sailing where vaccines will be needed? or will widespread vaccine availability in various countries have an impact on who can sail or on changing the "rules" that apply to the cruise lines? plus of course just the hopeful reduction in cases that vaccinations will end up eventually creating].
As for the CDC... I hope that their ultimate decisions with respect to the cruise industry are well thought out, and informed by science and rational thinking, not political pressure. I think working collaboratively with experts [not lobbyists] from the industry to determine "is there a way to make this work?" is important, understanding that if there just isn't, then there will be a no sail.
THe good thing with the current CDC order is it has *time* built in to it. Ships won't be sailing anytime soon. And the process that has to happen forces demonstrations that sailing can safely happen, with the ability to shut it all down if necessary. It also gives the cruise lines defines things they have to DO/targets to meet, which they didn't have before. I think it is clear they are also taking a cautious approach - they are not getting all their ships ready to go, but rather being selective and slow. They dont want to set themselves up for failure.