Some in Congress want to reverse CDC sail order.

[_auroraborealis_]

Science develops across time.

 

[icc2515]

Well science hasn't been right every time. Remember back in March when they told us not to wear masks and that was WHO.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html

He was wrong. Can we just let Roger Daltrey be.

 

[yowcruiser]

Some more info on the Pfizer vaccine rollout timeline. Keep in mind the vaccine is divided across multiple countries.. and Japan apparently is supposed to get 120 million doses in the first half of 2021...

According to this BBC article interviewing one of the developers of the vaccine: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54949799 [bold added]

The UK is expected to get 10 million doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine by the end of the year, with a further 30 million doses already ordered.
...

If everything continued to go well, he said, the vaccine would begin to be delivered at the "end of this year, beginning of next year".

He said the goal was to deliver more than 300 million doses worldwide by next April, which "could allow us to only start to make an impact".

...and this is just Pfizer.... Moderna who uses a similar technology is apparently not far behind... and there are other vaccine candidates. Assuming that a few of them are effective, I am not overtly concerned about a lack of vaccines. I agree that the timing might be a bit off from what people think - but would not be all that shocked to see a glut of available vaccines by Summer 2021

 

[mevelandry]

Well science hasn't been right every time. Remember back in March when they told us not to wear masks and that was WHO.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html

Because they didn’t have enough evidence back then and needed as PPE as possible for hospital workers. (It’s all in the article you shared).

EDIT: What they said at the time about the risk of self-contamination because of the way people touch the masks and/or don’t wear them properly (some wear them under the nose or put them down to talk) was true.

 

[zebsterama]

Well science hasn't been right every time. Remember back in March when they told us not to wear masks and that was WHO.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html

You got me there.

 

[Starwind]

Because they didn’t have enough evidence back then and needed as PPE as possible for hospital workers. (It’s all in the article you shared).

EDIT: What they said at the time about the risk of self-contamination because of the way people touch the masks and/or don’t wear them properly (some wear them under the nose or put them down to talk) was true.

Interestingly, one of the main studies used in March to support the idea that "cloth masks are not effective for the public to use" was a study done in 2011 of nurses in Vietnam, which showed higher risk wearing two layer cloth masks vs surgical or medical masks.

However, this summer the researchers did a deep dive into their data. They found of the nurses wearing cloth masks, most brought the masks home and handwashed them. But some had them washed each day in the hospital laundry washing machines.

When they compared those two groups, they found that the hospital laundry-washed cloth masks were as effective as the surgical or medical masks. It was the handwashed masks that were the higher risk: "There was no significant difference in infection between HCW who wore cloth masks washed in the hospital laundry compared with medical masks"

This is a good summary of the revisited findings: https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...-washed-daily-during-COVID-19-study-says.aspx [has link to original study at bottom]

And the new study revisiting the original study: https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/9/e042045

So even the science of the science can change when looked at in a new way.

 

[insureman]

Because they didn’t have enough evidence back then and needed as PPE as possible for hospital workers. (It’s all in the article you shared).

EDIT: What they said at the time about the risk of self-contamination because of the way people touch the masks and/or don’t wear them properly (some wear them under the nose or put them down to talk) was true.

I understand what you are saying but they were still wrong at that period of time and I am for wearing masks.

 

[AquaDame]

I'd argue that at the time they were "right" depending on what you mean. Based on the evidence they had at the time, it was the best course of action. Many countries were in lock down and weren't going outside the house; home-made masks weren't plentiful and studies on their efficacy were ongoing. We take a lot of knowledge we have now for granted already; back in March we were running around blind. Now? Yeah, its bad info. Hindsight is often painful when it comes to science...

 

[TXDCLfan]

As to airline travel being mainly a means of transportation, that is technically true, but it is transportation that carries people from place to place without monitoring their movements. It does not know why they are traveling, if they will be at a hotel or which one next, who they will be socializing with.

It would be much more difficult to isolate a group of air travelers that were exposed as opposed to isolating cruisers. They can go in and around different cities where they land or connect to different cities (even different countries), all the while they may be exposing far more people than a cruiser would who was on a controlled cruise where there is a set route and excursions were “in a bubble.”

It only takes a moment to be exposed to virus, so hours on a plane vs days on a ship doesn’t matter.

Air on planes is completely recirculated, not fresh. They have been upgrading their filters. Cruise ships will do the same.

It only takes one person to be infected to spread a virus, so total number of passengers does not matter.

People do not move about on planes? Yes, they do, and you are crammed up against each other much closer than social distancing guidelines advise.

Yes, there are challenges to the cruise lines about how they will test, isolate, care for, repatriate, etc. These concerns are part of the protocols cruise lines are developing. Having proper protocols can prevent the ships from becoming a “floating hospital.”

I just do not buy into the reasoning that cruises are somehow more dangerous than going to the mall, a theme park, a movie, or getting on an airplane. In a pandemic, anytime you get a group of people together, there are risks of infections. My point, once again, is that ONE industry has been singled out—ONE: the cruise industry.

Does that industry have some different hurdles? Yes. But they should still be allowed to make plans and formulate protocols to overcome those obstacles. Many people’s livelihoods depend upon it.

As to airline travel being mainly a means of transportation, that is technically true, but it is transportation that carries people from place to place without monitoring their movements. It does not know why they are traveling, if they will be at a hotel or which one next, who they will be socializing with.

It would be much more difficult to isolate a group of air travelers that were exposed as opposed to isolating cruisers. They can go in and around different cities where they land or connect to different cities (even different countries), all the while they may be exposing far more people than a cruiser would who was on a controlled cruise where there is a set route and excursions were “in a bubble.”

It only takes a moment to be exposed to virus, so hours on a plane vs days on a ship doesn’t matter.

Air on planes is completely recirculated, not fresh. They have been upgrading their filters. Cruise ships will do the same.

It only takes one person to be infected to spread a virus, so total number of passengers does not matter.

People do not move about on planes? Yes, they do, and you are crammed up against each other much closer than social distancing guidelines advise.

Yes, there are challenges to the cruise lines about how they will test, isolate, care for, repatriate, etc. These concerns are part of the protocols cruise lines are developing. Having proper protocols can prevent the ships from becoming a “floating hospital.”

I just do not buy into the reasoning that cruises are somehow more dangerous than going to the mall, a theme park, a movie, or getting on an airplane. In a pandemic, anytime you get a group of people together, there are risks of infections. My point, once again, is that ONE industry has been singled out—ONE: the cruise industry.

Does that industry have some different hurdles? Yes. But they should still be allowed to make plans and formulate protocols to overcome those obstacles. Many people’s livelihoods depend upon it.

This is completely incorrect. I have been an aircraft mechanic for34 years and can tell you that between 60-80% of the air in the cabin is constantly being released by the pressurization and out flow vales in the system also the air distribution system is receiving outside air from the engines off the 11 or 13 stage bleed air system.

 

[jtntx34]

This is completely incorrect. I have been an aircraft mechanic for34 years and can tell you that between 60-80% of the air in the cabin is constantly being released by the pressurization and out flow vales in the system also the air distribution system is receiving outside air from the engines off the 11 or 13 stage bleed air system.

60-80% is not 100%

Therefore, I may have been incorrect in part, but I was not “completely incorrect.”

How much contaminated air does it take to infect someone? How long does it take?

Does the air get sucked out and recirculated as soon as it comes out of your mouth?

 

[TXDCLfan]

60-80% is not 100%

Therefore, I may have been incorrect in part, but I was not “completely incorrect.”

How much contaminated air does it take to infect someone? How long does it take?

Does the air get sucked out and recirculated as soon as it comes out of your mouth?

you are missing this....60-80% of the cabin air is constantly being replace... this is a incredible amount of the total volume of the air inside of the fusalage

 

[Starwind]

60-80% is not 100%

Therefore, I may have been incorrect in part, but I was not “completely incorrect.”

How much contaminated air does it take to infect someone? How long does it take?

Does the air get sucked out and recirculated as soon as it comes out of your mouth?

WestJet has a nice little explanation with a video and diagram: https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/travel-info/cleaning

The air in the cabin is fully exchanged every 2-3 minutes.

The air that does get recirculated goes through HEPA filters. And is mixed with fresh air, so it isn't completely recirculated air.

American Airlines has a more lengthy explanation and goes into some detail about their HEPA filters: http://news.aa.com/news/news-detail...Cabin-Air-Since-the-1990s-FLT-06/default.aspx

What I am much more interested in is what the design of cruise ship stateroom ventilation systems are like and how effective they are. And how much they can and will be modified and in what ways in the face of covid and return to sailing.

 

[jtntx34]

you are missing this....60-80% of the cabin air is constantly being replace... this is a incredible amount of the total volume of the air inside of the fusalage

I am not missing it.

You are missing MY point. It. only takes one infected air molecule to enter your lungs to potentially infect you.

But that is not even my main point which is constantly being ignored despite my many reiterations, so I will state it again: the cruise industry has been singled out. They have not been treated the same as other travel and tourism industries like airlines and hotels. They have not been treated the same as other entertainment industries like theme parks and movies/television.

They were not allowed for months to even begin PLANS for reopening.

AND many of the people most seriously affected by this complete shut down are the employees from third world countries. Most of these employees cannot obtain equivalent incomes in their own countries. Also, being on a ship that is equipped with protocols and testing would actually probably afford some of them better, quicker care than they would be able to receive at home.

My point is about compassion...compassion for people who have had no job for more than 1/2 of this year. People in this country and other counties too, people in supporting industries that rely on cruising or the tourism it brings, people with names and faces and families—these people are not just numbers in a ledger. They are people. They have not lived in a bubble; they are dealing with the pandemic too. Maybe they have lost friends and family already as well as their livelihoods. I am arguing that these people are not somehow less important than you or I.

I am saying it has taken too long to get to this point of finally allowing cruise lines to START making plans, and the reason I am saying it in this forum is because it was originally started to say some in Congress wanted to reinstate the no sail order.

And let me be perfectly clear. I am not advocating for immediate startup. I am advocating for equitable treatment of the cruise industry—that it be allowed to make a plan, set protocols, and test those protocols. I am advocating if those barriers are passed, they be allowed to sail in limited capacities and that they be allowed to make adjustments as needed much as other industries have been able to do. I am advocating for those who have suffered for months without jobs and no future in sight be given some sign of hope.

 

[lanejudy]

the cruise industry has been singled out. They have not been treated the same as other travel and tourism industries like airlines and hotels.

But you refuse to recognize how cruising is vastly different from US-based travel and tourism.

AND many of the people most seriously affected by this complete shut down are the employees from third world countries. ...

... I am arguing that these people are not somehow less important than you or I.

I think expecting an organization tasked with protecting United States residents to be concerned about the economic/financial welfare of non-US citizen's is where your expectations are off. Those people don't directly contributed to US taxes. The CDC has to think first and foremost of impact to the U.S. Yes the closure impacted the U.S., but would that impact have been greater if cruising were to have been allowed to resume already?

As I type this, I am sitting here listening to my governor tell us "no socializing with those outside your household." We have a strict quarantine for anyone coming into the state -- it has hugely impacted the travel and tourism industry, which is vitally important to my state's economy. We've already lost the fall foliage season and things are looking bleak for the ski season. It's just a different government agency making those decisions for travel/tourism in each state while the CDC has the reach to dictate to the cruising industry.

 

[tidefan]

Keep in mind the numbers Pfizer themselves has released.

Per the Pfizer statement announcing their preliminary 90% success: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...d-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against :

"Based on current projections we expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021."

And then consider that the limited available doses have to be divided up amongst the countries that have pre-ordered doses [according to some unknown to the public rationale]. These are the publicaly known numbers for who has bought how many doses according to a variety of media sources [keep in mind 2 doses are needed to fully vaccinate one person]:

EU - 300 million doses
Canada - 20 million doses with option for more [recently reserved extra 56 million doses]
USA - 100 million doses with option for 500 million more
UK - 30 million doses (some sources say 40 million)
Japan - 120 million doses for delivery 1st half 2021 (press release cites Olympics context)

The pre-ordered doses apparently account for over 80% of the total doses announced to be available by the end of 2021.

Bottom line is that in the early part of 2021 there is going to be a limited # available for each country, in part per their contract in part just based on the limited # of doses available, plus add in the logistic issues.

Pfizer hasn't said what their ramp-up of manufacturing will be like so it isn't clear how quickly they will be getting up to full production. Therefore not known if # of available doses will remain low early to mid of the year or ramp up really quickly. They are making the stuff right now but by the end of the year will only have 50 million doses... what does that mean for the early months of 2021 ??

Realistically, it therefore makes sense that one could well be looking at many months into 2021 before the general public would be looking at getting vaccinated... with corresponding implications for the cruise industry [though it is not clear right now what those will be.... e.g. will there be a phase in the return to sailing where vaccines will be needed? or will widespread vaccine availability in various countries have an impact on who can sail or on changing the "rules" that apply to the cruise lines? plus of course just the hopeful reduction in cases that vaccinations will end up eventually creating].

As for the CDC... I hope that their ultimate decisions with respect to the cruise industry are well thought out, and informed by science and rational thinking, not political pressure. I think working collaboratively with experts [not lobbyists] from the industry to determine "is there a way to make this work?" is important, understanding that if there just isn't, then there will be a no sail.

THe good thing with the current CDC order is it has *time* built in to it. Ships won't be sailing anytime soon. And the process that has to happen forces demonstrations that sailing can safely happen, with the ability to shut it all down if necessary. It also gives the cruise lines defines things they have to DO/targets to meet, which they didn't have before. I think it is clear they are also taking a cautious approach - they are not getting all their ships ready to go, but rather being selective and slow. They dont want to set themselves up for failure.

So, now add Moderna to this... Also, I'd expect AstraZeneca and Johnson and Johnson results before the end of the year as well...

 

[TiggerBouncy]

No sentiment to it, Just being realistic. My DIL works at a University Hospital that will be a storage/distribution facility for vaccines when they come out. If everything remains on the fast track, they project they will have transportation and storage systems in place (to keep the vaccine at the required -94 degrees F) to START vaccinating health care workers in the third quarter of 2021. Then at risk patients, then others. The issue isn't deciding who gets the vaccine, but having the vaccine approved, manufactured, transported and distributed. One hiccup in that process, it's delayed.

https://time.com/5911543/pfizer-vaccine-cold-storage/

I imagine that your entire timeline has been upended by Moderna though given that it only needs to be kept at -20 degrees, which most pharmacies and Dr Offices can accommodate meaning that for that vaccine, distribution and logistics are a non-issue. Further, they have been manufacturing it in vast numbers and will be ready to start shipping it in the millions before the end of this calendar year.

There is just no way that front line workers will drag into Q3 next year based on the latest info. Latest projections are the we should be able to have the vulnerable protected by end of Q1 next year and general population can start to get vaccinated by beginning of Q2. Given that the cruise line industry will need a few months to do test cruises and get their staffing back and all that goodness, sounds to me like the timeline is correct that they should be starting this process now.

 

[AquaDame]

There is just no way that front line workers will drag into Q3 next year based on the latest info. Latest projections are the we should be able to have the vulnerable protected by end of Q1 next year and general population can start to get vaccinated by beginning of Q2. Given that the cruise line industry will need a few months to do test cruises and get their staffing back and all that goodness, sounds to me like the timeline is correct that they should be starting this process now.

I admit I am confused by their timeline as well... the nurse friends I have were saying it is looking good to have theirs by the end of the year or early next, and I thought most news sources were saying general public would start to get theirs immediately after (starting with the most vulnerable) with wide spread rollout in motion by Q3.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

most pharmacies and Dr Offices can accommodate meaning that for that vaccine, distribution and logistics are a non-issue

Logistics aren't a non-issue. Consider the size of the cold storage at most sites. Now, consider the demand and distribution for a national vaccine. There's already been a run on commercial cold storage because of the vaccine storage requirements.

Because of space available, you're looking at logistics along the supply chain for multiple deliveries each week.

 

[tvguy]

I imagine that your entire timeline has been upended by Moderna though given that it only needs to be kept at -20 degrees, which most pharmacies and Dr Offices can accommodate meaning that for that vaccine, distribution and logistics are a non-issue. Further, they have been manufacturing it in vast numbers and will be ready to start shipping it in the millions before the end of this calendar year.

There is just no way that front line workers will drag into Q3 next year based on the latest info. Latest projections are the we should be able to have the vulnerable protected by end of Q1 next year and general population can start to get vaccinated by beginning of Q2. Given that the cruise line industry will need a few months to do test cruises and get their staffing back and all that goodness, sounds to me like the timeline is correct that they should be starting this process now.

Not at all. Moderna says third quarter too for widespready distribution if they can move woward.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Logistics aren't a non-issue. Consider the size of the cold storage at most sites. Now, consider the demand and distribution for a national vaccine. There's already been a run on commercial cold storage because of the vaccine storage requirements.

Because of space available, you're looking at logistics along the supply chain for multiple deliveries each week.

Yeah, I should not have said non-issue, but less of an issue. I.E. we are not as limited to specific distribute sites that can store under -90 and we are not limited to transports that can maintain that level of temperature. The Moderna vaccine can be transported and stored in traditionally available equipment that many pharmacies and office already have.

Not at all. Moderna says third quarter too for widespready distribution if they can move woward.

I do not know where you are getting your information. Moderna has stated publicly that they have 20 Million doses ready for distribution by the end of 2020. Pfizer has 50 Million. That's 70 million. by End of 2020. NOT Q3 of 2021. Now with each person needing 2, that's only 35 million people. That said, there are 16 Million total people in the health care occupation, so that more than covers all Health Care workers by end of THIS year. That does not include AstraZenica and J&J which are not far behind and both also have millions of doses ready to go.

Pfizer is going to file for FDA emergency approval this week. Every expert is saying that they expect the FDA to grant it and distribution to start around Mid-December. Widespread distribution of between 2-4 different varieties would begin in April, and last through maybe July.

That's just not Q3 2021 to start no matter how you swing it.

And in any case, it's not really the issue. The issue on this board is whether or not the CDC should permit the cruise lines to run their own sets of safety cruises. Given the amount of time required to call back, get the ships going again, create and test new protocols, that could easily take 6 months. That lines up with when the vaccine is expected to be about halfway through distribution. There is just no reason to deny the industry the opportunity to determine the best way to safety operate.

The only thing they should really be discussing at this point is if the industry should be spending any money to deal with the virus or should they wait it out and see how well the vaccine works. But that should be a decision left to the carriers.