Some in Congress want to reverse CDC sail order.

[Starwind]

Did you say Q3 of 2021?
Fauci said the vaccine could roll out in January, possibly even Dec/2020
If its Q3 of 2021, you can kiss all DCL cruises goodbye for 2021. And pretty much life, as well.

Keep in mind the numbers Pfizer themselves has released.

Per the Pfizer statement announcing their preliminary 90% success: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...d-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against :

"Based on current projections we expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021."

And then consider that the limited available doses have to be divided up amongst the countries that have pre-ordered doses [according to some unknown to the public rationale]. These are the publicaly known numbers for who has bought how many doses according to a variety of media sources [keep in mind 2 doses are needed to fully vaccinate one person]:

EU - 300 million doses
Canada - 20 million doses with option for more [recently reserved extra 56 million doses]
USA - 100 million doses with option for 500 million more
UK - 30 million doses (some sources say 40 million)
Japan - 120 million doses for delivery 1st half 2021 (press release cites Olympics context)

The pre-ordered doses apparently account for over 80% of the total doses announced to be available by the end of 2021.

Bottom line is that in the early part of 2021 there is going to be a limited # available for each country, in part per their contract in part just based on the limited # of doses available, plus add in the logistic issues.

Pfizer hasn't said what their ramp-up of manufacturing will be like so it isn't clear how quickly they will be getting up to full production. Therefore not known if # of available doses will remain low early to mid of the year or ramp up really quickly. They are making the stuff right now but by the end of the year will only have 50 million doses... what does that mean for the early months of 2021 ??

Realistically, it therefore makes sense that one could well be looking at many months into 2021 before the general public would be looking at getting vaccinated... with corresponding implications for the cruise industry [though it is not clear right now what those will be.... e.g. will there be a phase in the return to sailing where vaccines will be needed? or will widespread vaccine availability in various countries have an impact on who can sail or on changing the "rules" that apply to the cruise lines? plus of course just the hopeful reduction in cases that vaccinations will end up eventually creating].

As for the CDC... I hope that their ultimate decisions with respect to the cruise industry are well thought out, and informed by science and rational thinking, not political pressure. I think working collaboratively with experts [not lobbyists] from the industry to determine "is there a way to make this work?" is important, understanding that if there just isn't, then there will be a no sail.

THe good thing with the current CDC order is it has *time* built in to it. Ships won't be sailing anytime soon. And the process that has to happen forces demonstrations that sailing can safely happen, with the ability to shut it all down if necessary. It also gives the cruise lines defines things they have to DO/targets to meet, which they didn't have before. I think it is clear they are also taking a cautious approach - they are not getting all their ships ready to go, but rather being selective and slow. They dont want to set themselves up for failure.

 

[Starwind]

According to Matt of the RCL blog a congressman and senator want the CDC to reverse it's decision to allow cruising. See link.
https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/...-bring-back-the-no-sail-order-cruise-ship-ban

I think the the CDC needs to look at the SeaDream situation and learn from it... BUt it will take some time to see how the numbers end up working out and how the infection and spread happened.

Apparently the first 5 cases were all from the same traveling group of 6. So one cluster all related to each other who could have come aboard already infected.

Of the next two, one was a close contact of a "previous case" though reporting isn't clear if that is one of the first five or the 6th.

Obviously with 7 cases they have gone beyond the original group of 6 travellers. Hopefully it can be determined if that case was caught on board or beforehand.

So while 7 cases looks bad, it isn't "as bad" as it initially appears on the surface.

FWIW a local article about the SeaDream situation from yesterday: https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/11/14/still-at-sea/

And an article from April about the isolation facility and hospital Barbados built that those on the ship who have tested positive have been transferred to: https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/04/05/harrisons-point-facility-to-be-handed-over-to-govt-tomorrow

 

[jtntx34]

Ok, I know this is a cruise forum, but I am always shocked by those who insist it is not safe to cruise yet citing early infections on cruise ships. The community spread we have in the US did not come from cruise ship passengers. It came from airline travelers. Yet, airlines were never shut down. They have been allowed to maintain some form of operations these many months.

I watched the early numbers in our community very closely, and there was a high percentage of those early infections directly linked to airline travel. NONE linked to cruise travel. Yet, the CDC has punished cruise lines by shuttering them for months and months.

Some here argue would that cruises are for vacations, a luxury. But as a few have noted, there are countless other jobs linked to the cruise industry. And for people who are unable to work due to the CDC’s unfair treatment of this single industry, it is not a matter of luxury vacations but a matter of whether they can take care of their families. Many of the employees on the ships come from third world countries. They cannot make equivalent salaries in their own country.

So I find myself wondering why not the airlines? Some argue because businesses require airline travel. Do they? Is it required today as it was 10 or 20 years ago when we have so many ways to communicate online in real time? Or perhaps it’s that the people being inconvenienced by lack of airline travel are mainly influential first world businessmen and women rather than 3rd world laborers who truly NEED to work to provide for their loved ones.

I am not against protocols or increasing safety for travel. I am against this crazy double standard. Yes, I know people aren’t on airlines for days at a time. However, that might put a business traveler (or others he/she comes in contact with) at more risk than a cruiser.

Imagine: business traveler gets on flight in Chicago not knowing they are infected, they fly to New York, do some business, back to Chicago for brief layover and then on to LA. More business with a couple of days in town then on to Atlanta. They start not to feel well while in Atlanta but have no fever so they board flight to get home to Chicago. When they get home they realize they REALLY don’t feel well. They stay home and call doctor who orders Covid test. They test positive. This person has had far more opportunities to infect others than a cruiser that drives to port with their travel party. Yet, no one is telling airlines to ground planes. Airlines have to take some measures. But they are not put on a full stop.

So I say let the cruise lines resume with protocols and let people decide if they want to cruise. Just as I have no desire to board an airplane at this time, some will feel the same for cruising. But I believe we should have fair treatment of the cruise industry. Many people’s livelihoods depends upon it.

 

[DisneYE]

Keep in mind the numbers Pfizer themselves has released.

Per the Pfizer statement announcing their preliminary 90% success: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...d-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against :

"Based on current projections we expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021."

And then consider that the limited available doses have to be divided up amongst the countries that have pre-ordered doses [according to some unknown to the public rationale]. These are the publicaly known numbers for who has bought how many doses according to a variety of media sources [keep in mind 2 doses are needed to fully vaccinate one person]:

EU - 300 million doses
Canada - 20 million doses with option for more [recently reserved extra 56 million doses]
USA - 100 million doses with option for 500 million more
UK - 30 million doses (some sources say 40 million)
Japan - 120 million doses for delivery 1st half 2021 (press release cites Olympics context)

The pre-ordered doses apparently account for over 80% of the total doses announced to be available by the end of 2021.

Bottom line is that in the early part of 2021 there is going to be a limited # available for each country, in part per their contract in part just based on the limited # of doses available, plus add in the logistic issues.

Pfizer hasn't said what their ramp-up of manufacturing will be like so it isn't clear how quickly they will be getting up to full production. Therefore not known if # of available doses will remain low early to mid of the year or ramp up really quickly. They are making the stuff right now but by the end of the year will only have 50 million doses... what does that mean for the early months of 2021 ??

Realistically, it therefore makes sense that one could well be looking at many months into 2021 before the general public would be looking at getting vaccinated... with corresponding implications for the cruise industry [though it is not clear right now what those will be.... e.g. will there be a phase in the return to sailing where vaccines will be needed? or will widespread vaccine availability in various countries have an impact on who can sail or on changing the "rules" that apply to the cruise lines? plus of course just the hopeful reduction in cases that vaccinations will end up eventually creating].

As for the CDC... I hope that their ultimate decisions with respect to the cruise industry are well thought out, and informed by science and rational thinking, not political pressure. I think working collaboratively with experts [not lobbyists] from the industry to determine "is there a way to make this work?" is important, understanding that if there just isn't, then there will be a no sail.

THe good thing with the current CDC order is it has *time* built in to it. Ships won't be sailing anytime soon. And the process that has to happen forces demonstrations that sailing can safely happen, with the ability to shut it all down if necessary. It also gives the cruise lines defines things they have to DO/targets to meet, which they didn't have before. I think it is clear they are also taking a cautious approach - they are not getting all their ships ready to go, but rather being selective and slow. They dont want to set themselves up for failure.

This is a great analysis. Thanks for sharing it.
With that in mind, anyone want to update their vote on when will DCL will sail again?
Poll: When Will Disney Set Sail Again

Because based on your excellent take on when the vaccine will get to people, it won't be in 2021.

 

[Starwind]

This is a great analysis. Thanks for sharing it.
With that in mind, anyone want to update their vote on when will DCL will sail again?
Poll: When Will Disney Set Sail Again

Because based on your excellent take on when the vaccine will get to people, it won't be in 2021.

I don't think at this point it is clear what role vaccines will play in resuming cruising [as an institution], and when.

I know for my family, at this point in time, we won't cruise again until we're vaccinated. In practical terms, that probably means that our August 2021 Alaska cruise will get moved to 2022, though for now we are going through the motions of planning for 2021; but we will move it before PIF if we are at all uncertain. On top of that, the country I live in also has travel and cruise advisories in place, and a mandatory 14d quarantine after returning to the country; those would also have to be lifted for my family to be willing to cruise.

 

[Starwind]

I am not against protocols or increasing safety for travel. I am against this crazy double standard. Yes, I know people aren’t on airlines for days at a time. However, that might put a business traveler (or others he/she comes in contact with) at more risk than a cruiser.

You have to go back and look at the rationale for why the no sail order was issued.

Part of it was to stop covid from being brought into the US, yes. The rough equivalent for the airlines was the US imposing a series of bans on travelers from various countries entering the US - many of which are still in place. The US government also limited the # of airports international flights could arrive at to a very small number of specified airports, which additional measures were put in place at.

The other core [and related] reason was because the required federal response to dealing with a ship with covid on it, or to repatriated passengers from such ships, became unsustainable.

See the rationale described in quotes from federal documents here: https://www.disboards.com/threads/s...-recommendations.3813784/page-8#post-62349890

The did not have the same issue with planes because for the most part you don't have a plane arriving with multiple sick people on it and having to quarantine the entire plane. If you had a disease where everyone on the plane started off fine but by the end of the flight multiple people were sick and more were getting sick, then you would have a comparable situation [with compressed time]... and if that happened more than once or twice with some new [especially if it was lethal] disease you might expect that airlines might find themselves grounded too. But that isn't how covid manifests on a plane flight of a few hours. Even if someone does develop symptoms on the flight and spread it to others, anyone who catches it from them won't show symptoms for at least a day, most for 5-7 days, and some for as many as 14d. Its a different type of public health problem.

In this article from early April, the airlines and TSA reported a 96% drop in air travel: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/politics/airline-passengers-decline/index.html And an article from late June, number still down in the 90's% worldwide: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-07-28-02/

Cargo shipments are what are keeping some planes in the air that still are even if they may not have a lot of passengers on them, or converting passenger planes to cargo flights. See https://www.aircargonews.net/freigh...has-turned-the-airfreight-market-on-its-head/ or https://www.thenationalnews.com/bus...ines-as-covid-19-saps-travel-demand-1.1072462

Back to the CDC no sail order....

I have posted elsewhere, whatever requirements the CDC has, and the plans the cruise lines come up with for resuming sailing, they will have to overcome the issues that resulted in the original no sail order being imposed.

Most especially, they are going to have to have concrete plans for managing both small and very large scale outbreaks, including managing on board and then in port and on land. Contracts signed, locations designated, resources in place, etc. And if the facilities are 'shared' in that more than one ship would use them if there is an outbreak, there needs to be solid contingency plans, because, well, Murphy's Law.

That may end up having a real impact on what a return to sailing looks like, too -- depending on what port/land-based resources and infrastructure a cruise line has to have in place for each deployed ship, they may have to limit how many ships are sailing at any given time/out of a given port.

 

[Starwind]

This is a great analysis. Thanks for sharing it.
With that in mind, anyone want to update their vote on when will DCL will sail again?
Poll: When Will Disney Set Sail Again

Because based on your excellent take on when the vaccine will get to people, it won't be in 2021.

Some more info on the Pfizer vaccine rollout timeline. Keep in mind the vaccine is divided across multiple countries.. and Japan apparently is supposed to get 120 million doses in the first half of 2021...

According to this BBC article interviewing one of the developers of the vaccine: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54949799 [bold added]

The UK is expected to get 10 million doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine by the end of the year, with a further 30 million doses already ordered.
...

If everything continued to go well, he said, the vaccine would begin to be delivered at the "end of this year, beginning of next year".

He said the goal was to deliver more than 300 million doses worldwide by next April, which "could allow us to only start to make an impact".

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

I am not against protocols or increasing safety for travel. I am against this crazy double standard. Yes, I know people aren’t on airlines for days at a time. However, that might put a business traveler (or others he/she comes in contact with) at more risk than a cruiser.

Imagine: business traveler gets on flight in Chicago not knowing they are infected, they fly to New York, do some business, back to Chicago for brief layover and then on to LA. More business with a couple of days in town then on to Atlanta. They start not to feel well while in Atlanta but have no fever so they board flight to get home to Chicago. When they get home they realize they REALLY don’t feel well. They stay home and call doctor who orders Covid test. They test positive. This person has had far more opportunities to infect others than a cruiser that drives to port with their travel party. Yet, no one is telling airlines to ground planes. Airlines have to take some measures. But they are not put on a full stop.

So I say let the cruise lines resume with protocols and let people decide if they want to cruise. Just as I have no desire to board an airplane at this time, some will feel the same for cruising. But I believe we should have fair treatment of the cruise industry. Many people’s livelihoods depends upon it.

Your example is about one businessman who is traveling domestically, and at most, might find different quarantine standards in different states of the same country. He doesn't need to worry about being caught in a mandatory quarantine dragnet while away from his home country, or about not being allowed to enter a country because he is coming from one with a high number of active cases. The difference with cruising is that it's international by definition. Ships must dock in foreign ports that will accepts them, cruise lines employ large numbers of international employees who must be allowed to travel to the embarkation port and then follow any quarantine and testing protocols mandated by that country, and the tourists themselves must be allowed to travel to and from the embarkation and debarkation cities freely. None of that will happen while we are in a second or third wave of this pandemic. It might not feel fair, but cruise lines can't pivot to domestic-only travel the way that airlines can.

 

[Starwind]

According to Matt of the RCL blog a congressman and senator want the CDC to reverse it's decision to allow cruising. See link.
https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/...-bring-back-the-no-sail-order-cruise-ship-ban

I do wonder if they actually read the CDC "not a no sail order" ? Its not like the ships can suddenly go back to sailing tomorrow. There are a slew of processes and check points that have to occur first. Lots of ways and points at which the whole notion of sailing can be pushed out further if needed. And the CDC at any point can reinstitute the no sail if the situation requires it.

 

[jtntx34]

Your example is about one businessman who is traveling domestically, and at most, might find different quarantine standards in different states of the same country. He doesn't need to worry about being caught in a mandatory quarantine dragnet while away from his home country, or about not being allowed to enter a country because he is coming from one with a high number of active cases. The difference with cruising is that it's international by definition. Ships must dock in foreign ports that will accepts them, cruise lines employ large numbers of international employees who must be allowed to travel to the embarkation port and then follow any quarantine and testing protocols mandated by that country, and the tourists themselves must be allowed to travel to and from the embarkation and debarkation cities freely. None of that will happen while we are in a second or third wave of this pandemic. It might not feel fair, but cruise lines can't pivot to domestic-only travel the way that airlines can.

Yes, my example was one domestic traveler. It was to show the discrepancy between how the airline and cruise industries have been treated with completely different standards by the CDC.

There have been no CDC bans on international travel either. Any bans that have been placed have not been placed by the CDC.

Also, based on the Covid protocols used to reopen cruising in Europe, protocols concerning repatriation or quarantining were in place prior to guests coming aboard. Many of those protocols were expressly put in place to avoid travelers being “caught in a quarantine dragnet.” I would expect the same here.

I am not advocating a free for all opening; I am just advocating for the cruise industry to be given a chance as the airline industry has been given. No one person can eliminate a virus. Scientists are working quickly to formulate therapeutics and vaccines which, if effective, can drastically reduce the impact of this virus.

However, even with those in place, people will need to make personal decisions about if, when, where to and how they are willing to travel. I simply would like people to have more choices, not less.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think when you look at things like the quarantine facility in Barbados, it is clear that mega ships cannot just build or negotiate facilities in ports of calls.

It is a lot more likely that ships of the line will do very limited voyages (3-4 days) and other ships of that carrier will be designated for quarantine hospital ships. Possibly even agreements among lines for some places, like PC and Miami, where RCCL and DCL might pay Carnival for capacity in quarantine.

 

[andyman8]

Fauci said the vaccine could roll out in January, possibly even Dec/2020

Just to clarify, the latest guidance from Dr. Fauci and other medical experts (with the Pfizer news in mind) is that we'd have a vaccine "ready" (as in developed and approved) by the end of the year or early January. It will take some time for manufacturing, so the average American shouldn't expect to see this available at your local pharmacy or doctor's office until April with higher risk Americans (i.e. first responders, the elderly, those in nursing homes, etc...) potentially receiving it in the interim.

Of course, even with the vaccine, masks and social distancing don't go away. The vaccine is another (hopefully highly effective) tool to curb community spread. "Normalcy" won't truly return until community spread is minimal, and if this vaccine is as effective as they say it is, that hopefully won't take terribly long.

 

[mevelandry]

As much as I want to go back to cruising... Canada and the USA are currently at the worst they’ve ever been when it comes to the number of cases. Sounds like a bad timing to re-start sailings.

At this point, I don’t think the April cruise we have booked will happen... but we’ll see.

 

[lanejudy]

Yes, my example was one domestic traveler. It was to show the discrepancy between how the airline and cruise industries have been treated with completely different standards by the CDC.

Airlines and cruising are really not comparable other than being 2 modes of transit.

• Airline travel is largely a means to an end, point A to point B. Cruising is a vacation more than a mode of transportation between 2 points.
• People are on an airplane for a relatively short period of time — hours — as opposed to days on a cruise ship.
• Generally speaking, an airplane carries considerably fewer passengers than most cruise ships. Yes there are some very small non-mainstream cruiselines, but those are not really the question at-hand.
• Passengers primarily remain in their own seats on an airplane. Cruise passengers move about the ship, on and off the ship, potentially interacting with many others who in turn interact with many more over the course of days.
• The challenge with cruising is what to do with passengers who do become ill. Many of the port stops do not have the facilities to deal with multiple patients coming off a ship, and some have less-than-desirable healthcare. A cruise ship itself should not really be expected to become a floating hospital, much less an ICU, in addition to vacation space for healthy passengers.

 

[Lizgistix]

Which cruise lines?

MSC in Italy, and there was one other I can't remember off the top of my head.

 

[Lizgistix]

Which cruise lines? None of the majors that I am aware of. Most have canceled all cruises into 2021. Some tiny ships with less than 120 passengers and crew have sailed and it has not gone well.

MSC had a cruise doing Italy-only ports which went well, from what I understand.

 

[zebsterama]

Unfortunately we don't live unto an island by ourselves.

Especially in the United States - of all places - cruising is not a good idea.
I wish it weren't so - but that's what the science says: so far the science has been right every single time.

This whole business of letting people make their own choices got the world into this mess.
The hospitals are overrun. Very soon many won't be able to handle the capacity.
Quite frankly that's the real problem.

Get the numbers down, and then, and only then, consider sticking a few thousand strangers on a boat.

 

[jtntx34]

Airlines and cruising are really not comparable other than being 2 modes of transit.

• Airline travel is largely a means to an end, point A to point B. Cruising is a vacation more than a mode of transportation between 2 points.
• People are on an airplane for a relatively short period of time — hours — as opposed to days on a cruise ship.
• Generally speaking, an airplane carries considerably fewer passengers than most cruise ships. Yes there are some very small non-mainstream cruiselines, but those are not really the question at-hand.
• Passengers primarily remain in their own seats on an airplane. Cruise passengers move about the ship, on and off the ship, potentially interacting with many others who in turn interact with many more over the course of days.
• The challenge with cruising is what to do with passengers who do become ill. Many of the port stops do not have the facilities to deal with multiple patients coming off a ship, and some have less-than-desirable healthcare. A cruise ship itself should not really be expected to become a floating hospital, much less an ICU, in addition to vacation space for healthy passengers.

As to airline travel being mainly a means of transportation, that is technically true, but it is transportation that carries people from place to place without monitoring their movements. It does not know why they are traveling, if they will be at a hotel or which one next, who they will be socializing with.

It would be much more difficult to isolate a group of air travelers that were exposed as opposed to isolating cruisers. They can go in and around different cities where they land or connect to different cities (even different countries), all the while they may be exposing far more people than a cruiser would who was on a controlled cruise where there is a set route and excursions were “in a bubble.”

It only takes a moment to be exposed to virus, so hours on a plane vs days on a ship doesn’t matter.

Air on planes is completely recirculated, not fresh. They have been upgrading their filters. Cruise ships will do the same.

It only takes one person to be infected to spread a virus, so total number of passengers does not matter.

People do not move about on planes? Yes, they do, and you are crammed up against each other much closer than social distancing guidelines advise.

Yes, there are challenges to the cruise lines about how they will test, isolate, care for, repatriate, etc. These concerns are part of the protocols cruise lines are developing. Having proper protocols can prevent the ships from becoming a “floating hospital.”

I just do not buy into the reasoning that cruises are somehow more dangerous than going to the mall, a theme park, a movie, or getting on an airplane. In a pandemic, anytime you get a group of people together, there are risks of infections. My point, once again, is that ONE industry has been singled out—ONE: the cruise industry.

Does that industry have some different hurdles? Yes. But they should still be allowed to make plans and formulate protocols to overcome those obstacles. Many people’s livelihoods depend upon it.

 

[Starwind]

Air on planes is completely recirculated, not fresh. They have been upgrading their filters. Cruise ships will do the same.

Just to correct this, this ("completely recirculated, not fresh") is not the case. The air is a combination of recirculated and fresh air, the mix depends on the aircraft. Also, many planes send the recirculated air through HEPA filters, which capture most contaminants that go through them, including microbes.

This is a document from 2018 from IATA which gives a nice summary; since covid emerged most airlines have further enhanced their air circulation systems: https://www.iata.org/contentassets/f1163430bba94512a583eb6d6b24aa56/cabin-air-quality.pdf

The cruise lines that have sailed have likewise enhanced the ventilation systems on their ships, and we can probably expect to see that as part of the requirements for returning to sailing - both actual changes as well as it being a "selling feature" like it is with the airlines.

 

[insureman]

Unfortunately we don't live unto an island by ourselves.

Especially in the United States - of all places - cruising is not a good idea.
I wish it weren't so - but that's what the science says: so far the science has been right every single time.

This whole business of letting people make their own choices got the world into this mess.
The hospitals are overrun. Very soon many won't be able to handle the capacity.
Quite frankly that's the real problem.

Get the numbers down, and then, and only then, consider sticking a few thousand strangers on a boat.

Well science hasn't been right every time. Remember back in March when they told us not to wear masks and that was WHO.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html