Reflections: A Disney Lakeside Lodge

[mamaofsix]

I predict higher ppp than where RIV started at $188pp and similar point charts to RIV. There is honestly no reason whatsoever for them to do low point charts. The higher the point charts, the more points they can sell, and the more money they can make. CCV was an exception because of BRV. Remember there will be a lot of cabins too. I can’t remember the total number, but it was a lot. They can make some of these cabins be part of the hotel side or all of them can be allocated for DVC like they did with CCV.

We won’t know anything concrete for a few years. We knew almost nothing about the details of Riviera until right before it went on sale in March 2019.

I hope the resort turns out beautifully. It‘s always great to have another DVC property!

Interesting. I feel as though RIV could be so high in points because of the skyline / location, and also the fact that it's units were designed to be more on the lux side ("Epcot's GF") compared to CCV.

Reflections won't have either of those things going for it. It's not a monorail or a skyliner resort. And a more laid back design.

I guess we'll see what happens! One can always hope the point chart will be lower than RIV!

 

[TexasChick123]

Interesting. I feel as though RIV could be so high in points because of the skyline / location, and also the fact that it's units were designed to be more on the lux side ("Epcot's GF") compared to CCV.

Reflections won't have either of those things going for it. It's not a monorail or a skyliner resort. And a more laid back design.

I guess we'll see what happens! One can always hope the point chart will be lower than RIV!

They'll market it as an MK resort to justify the high points. “Magic Kingdom is only a short boat ride away”. I would love all the properties to have lower point charts, but I don’t think they will. I also agree with others that this resort will have very nice, deluxe rooms. It’ll be a departure from Ft. Wilderness as it is now.

 

[Philsfan77]

This resort would intrigue me...however, if the point charts are on par with Riviera, and then you add in the high point cabins which impact studio booking issues that exist at CCV, and then you add in resale restrictions...I can't see anyway i'd pull the trigger...I'd need to see how many studios actually there end up being, but if it's a similar number to CCV...I'd be a hard no.

 

[Philsfan77]

Wondering if the attempt to increase the cost of THV at SSR last year was related to Reflection. They may not want a similar unit type being half the point in another resort (pure speculation on my part that those rehab THV will have a scaring cost per night).

Maybe I'm missing something, but the point charts for 2018-2019-2020 were the same...and the 2021 point chart went down in some seasons/areas, and up in others, but everything was minimal.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Maybe I'm missing something, but the point charts for 2018-2019-2020 were the same...and the 2021 point chart went down in some seasons/areas, and up in others, but everything was minimal.

The original 2020 charts were NOT the same. If you do a search you would see they caused quite an uproar!

 

[bobbiwoz]

Maybe I'm missing something, but the point charts for 2018-2019-2020 were the same...and the 2021 point chart went down in some seasons/areas, and up in others, but everything was minimal.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/2020-point-charts.3725229/

 

[Philsfan77]

The original 2020 charts were NOT the same. If you do a search you would see they caused quite an uproar!

I get that...this wasn't an isolated THV issue though, but a DVC issue. In the end...the charts over those 3 years stayed the same for THV...and the changes this year for the THV showed the same patterns of change based on seasons as other point charts/room types/resort types.

I'm just trying to figure out what that poster meant with the THV increase...maybe it's just what youre pointing out in relation to the rescinded point chart.

 

[tjkraz]

It's just too early to make any educated guesses. The easy / convenient response is to assume the worst.

Many assumed Poly would be even more expensive than Grand Floridian (beloved resort, large rooms.) Most Studios are identical in price with some being cheaper than VGF.

The Copper Creek cabins are cheaper than Poly bungalows.

Riviera is cheaper than VGF and Poly.

Reflections won't be Copper Creek cheap, that's for sure. And it's very unlikely to match or exceed Poly/GF. Difficult to predict anything else, especially when we know almost nothing about the resort itself (villa makeup, amenities, etc.)

 

[sleepydog25]

As stated immediately above, still too early to do more than theorize what DVC might do. So, sure, I'll do that, too!

I'm going to make the assumption that Reflections will be a standalone DVC property (I'm obviously wrong on this one), much like Riveria. No hotel strictly for OOP guests with DVC thrown in. To my mind, that would bump up the pp night cost over either CCV or VWL. Further, with FW being a moderate and WL (including VWL and CCV) being more of a moderate DVC, I'm theorizing Reflections will want to be a bit more upscale, thus more pp night. They have a great opportunity to put in a signature restaurant (which WL no longer has), and if they build it on the water, PRESTO! Water views of the fireworks. Toss in cabins (those are such great coups for DVC since they can sell a boatload of points for them) and you have the case for a DVC property that might not be VGF but will be more upscale than either those at WL or even Riviera. . .at least that's how they can sell it. . .

 

[crvetter]

As stated immediately above, still too early to do more than theorize what DVC might do. So, sure, I'll do that, too!

I'm going to make the assumption that Reflections will be a standalone DVC property, much like Riveria. No hotel strictly for OOP guests with DVC thrown in. To my mind, that would bump up the pp night cost over either CCV or VWL. Further, with FW being a moderate and WL (including VWL and CCV) being more of a moderate DVC, I'm theorizing Reflections will want to be a bit more upscale, thus more pp night. They have a great opportunity to put in a signature restaurant (which WL no longer has), and if they build it on the water, PRESTO! Water views of the fireworks. Toss in cabins (those are such great coups for DVC since they can sell a boatload of points for them) and you have the case for a DVC property that might not be VGF but will be more upscale than either those at WL or even Riviera. . .at least that's how they can sell it. . .

They have stated that Reflections is mixed use with a total of about 900 rooms (cash and DVC). Disney has stated to their shareholders that Reflections will be in the 150-200 room range for DVC (they really can't "lie" to the shareholders, but the number could adjust a bit). Though I agree Reflections will be billed as "luxury" compared to prior offerings with larger rooms, unique amenities (permits show a lazy river, over the water dining--think CSR and this was "confirmed" by Disney, though too early to say the amenities are locked in), and easy access to MK. Considering that Riviera is slightly cheaper per night than VGF I suspect that Reflections will be easy to sell like every other DVC property. Also permits have this building laid out more like BWV where all rooms share a common building with wings that provide most rooms having decent views of courtyards.

No idea on transportation options yet, will they share buses with FW (since permits show a massive bus depot) and what happens with WL transportation? How will the boat transportation work? These are the questions and those of this nature concern me more if I was to consider buying there. I'm sure the rooms and amenities will be nice and price inline with Riviera (since the two will have some overlap in sales). This is another 900 rooms on a secluded part of the property and without significant infrastructure investments could become problematic, though I hope not as I own at CCV.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Does anyone really believe that DVC will sell a new resort for a lesser price per point???? Yeah, and I still believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny (and my same sarcasm goes to anyone who thinks the point charts will show fewer point to book for each room accommodation). Disney is a Corporation first and foremost so is going to maximize profits. This is NOT meant as a knock against Disney, it is what they should be doing for its shareholders-just reality.

 

[tjkraz]

Does anyone really believe that DVC will sell a new resort for a lesser price per point???? Yeah, and I still believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny

No, and I don't see where anyone has suggested that.

(and my same sarcasm goes to anyone who thinks the point charts will show fewer point to book for each room accommodation).

"Fewer" than what?

Again, Poly was built after VGF and it has rooms which are fewer points per night. Copper Creek cabins are cheaper than Poly bungalows. (Other CCV rooms are cheaper than prior resorts too, but there are different reasons for that.) Riviera is cheaper than Poly and VGF. Going back further, SSR rooms cost less than Beach Club or Boulder Ridge.

Do I believe the nightly point costs for Reflections will be the highest ever? No, I do not.

 

[crvetter]

Going back further, SSR rooms cost less than Beach Club or Boulder Ridge.

Though at the onset of the sales and before the preferred and standard categories SSR on average cost more than BCV and BRV if I'm not mistaken. DVC was fairly greedy in setting the point charts at SSR and I consider that the beginning of the inflating costs per year.

But your other sentiments I do agree with. I expect Reflections and Riviera to be similar in costs probably, Reflections actually might be less than Riviera (so between Riviera and CCV/BRV/BCV/BWV) and utilize the cabins again as a way for DVC to "create" more money for them at the resort. Realistically the cabins exist at CCV at the high number simply so DVC could create more points at the resort to sell. If you drop the cabins from CCV DVC would have had ~1/3 less the points the sell but the cabins weren't 1/3 the cost of the build out I'm sure (between the new pool, room conversions, etc). Plus they would have been stuck with Aulani being the only active resort something they do not want.

 

[mamaofsix]

They have stated that Reflections is mixed use with a total of about 900 rooms (cash and DVC). Disney has stated to their shareholders that Reflections will be in the 150-200 room range for DVC (they really can't "lie" to the shareholders, but the number could adjust a bit). Though I agree Reflections will be billed as "luxury" compared to prior offerings with larger rooms, unique amenities (permits show a lazy river, over the water dining--think CSR and this was "confirmed" by Disney, though too early to say the amenities are locked in), and easy access to MK. Considering that Riviera is slightly cheaper per night than VGF I suspect that Reflections will be easy to sell like every other DVC property. Also permits have this building laid out more like BWV where all rooms share a common building with wings that provide most rooms having decent views of courtyards.

No idea on transportation options yet, will they share buses with FW (since permits show a massive bus depot) and what happens with WL transportation? How will the boat transportation work? These are the questions and those of this nature concern me more if I was to consider buying there. I'm sure the rooms and amenities will be nice and price inline with Riviera (since the two will have some overlap in sales). This is another 900 rooms on a secluded part of the property and without significant infrastructure investments could become problematic, though I hope not as I own at CCV.

Interesting! So, if the DVC rooms are less than 1/4 of the total resort rooms, I wonder if the building wings to the west of the "main" U-shape are meant to be DVC? Looks as though it has it's own parking lot and entrance.

 

[zavandor]

Maybe I'm missing something, but the point charts for 2018-2019-2020 were the same...and the 2021 point chart went down in some seasons/areas, and up in others, but everything was minimal.

Sandy is right, I was referring to the first version of the 2020 reallocation. They did try, among other things, to increase the points required for THV and decrease the points required for other units.
After the first reallocation, in 2013, I think, demand for the THV already decreased and it isn't unusual to find them available at 7 months now. So why have they tried to increase them more? A possible explanation is to make less strident in comparison with other novel accommodations like bungalows and cabins.

 

[tjkraz]

Though at the onset of the sales and before the preferred and standard categories SSR on average cost more than BCV and BRV if I'm not mistaken. DVC was fairly greedy in setting the point charts at SSR and I consider that the beginning of the inflating costs per year.

No, SSR rooms were cheaper than BCV/VWL/BWV (non-standard) before the Standard & Preferred categories were created.

 

[bookwormde]

While I realize that the name may still be in flux, and since reflections makes no sense to me I am using DLR for now for simplicity

I had a few thoughts, first is that I would be very surprised if by total sqft for room that DVC uses was not more then half of the space. This in in part based on Disney’s reduction of cash rooms at Poly, WL and AKL over the past decade. In my opinion I think ¼ to 2/5 cash by room count is much more likely. This is also based on the short-term profit motive below.

First from the rendering and overall layout it is pretty clear that like BVW the hotel is the east end with DVC to the west of the portico. I also believe it is likely that the 10 raised units are part of the hotel and may be super premium suites. The 2 A frames may also contain premium hotel rooms since they scale as being way to big for a single occupancy given that they appear as though they have either a loft f 2nd floor.

So for the Hotel side I get 606 main building traditional hotel rooms, 10 likely 2br raised suites and 8 BW garden room types of mini suites.

On the DVC side, I count 848 studio equivalents, which could break out to 100 studios, 150 2br lockoffs, 100 2br dedicated and 11 3br GVs. Again to this you have to add the 8 a frame buildings. They appear way too big for a single unit unless they are moving to mega villas of 4 to 6 bedrooms. My guess is that they are at least 2 units per building with one 2 to 3 br as the dramatic lakeview with the 30 foot plus high glass front, and a second as a rear facing pond view.

So if you use a average hotel rack of $600, apply a 97% in service rate, a 85% occupancy rate and an 18% average discount you come up with about 90 million yearly gross from hotel rooms. Even if you apply a 20% net which is well above the 6 to 14% that is consider the range for well run hotels, you are still only looking at 18 Million in profits pre year or 900 million over 50 years

On the DVC side assuming average studio weekly points of 140, 2br of 400, GV of 750 and the lake facing Villas of 1200 for 50 salable weeks you get about 637K points. At $200 per point that comes to about 1.274 billion dollars. Construction should be in the 180 to 225 million range so even with sales cost Disney will net over a billion dollars on the DVC side.

Even at Disney excellent bonding rate, the 900 million that they might make from the hotel side over 50 years is only worth 400 million in current dollars or $660,000 per room/studio. One the DVC side each studio equivalent generates about 1.1 million in profits over 2-3 sales years.

This is why the idea of DLR being majority hotel will simply not happen. You might ask whey build hotels at all. The answer is that you need them for the non regular visitors, those who can not make the level of investment that DVC is, to get visitors initially hooked on the premium WDW experiance so they want to buy in, and as a DVC value comparison to keep the sales price high.

Sorry for all the numbers but if you want to know what Disney is likely to do you have to follow the dollars.

 

[mamaofsix]

While I realize that the name may still be in flux, and since reflections makes no sense to me I am using DLR for now for simplicity

I had a few thoughts, first is that I would be very surprised if by total sqft for room that DVC uses was not more then half of the space. This in in part based on Disney’s reduction of cash rooms at Poly, WL and AKL over the past decade. In my opinion I think ¼ to 2/5 cash by room count is much more likely. This is also based on the short-term profit motive below.

First from the rendering and overall layout it is pretty clear that like BVW the hotel is the east end with DVC to the west of the portico. I also believe it is likely that the 10 raised units are part of the hotel and may be super premium suites. The 2 A frames may also contain premium hotel rooms since they scale as being way to big for a single occupancy given that they appear as though they have either a loft f 2nd floor.

So for the Hotel side I get 606 main building traditional hotel rooms, 10 likely 2br raised suites and 8 BW garden room types of mini suites.

On the DVC side, I count 848 studio equivalents, which could break out to 100 studios, 150 2br lockoffs, 100 2br dedicated and 11 3br GVs. Again to this you have to add the 8 a frame buildings. They appear way too big for a single unit unless they are moving to mega villas of 4 to 6 bedrooms. My guess is that they are at least 2 units per building with one 2 to 3 br as the dramatic lakeview with the 30 foot plus high glass front, and a second as a rear facing pond view.

So if you use a average hotel rack of $600, apply a 97% in service rate, a 85% occupancy rate and an 18% average discount you come up with about 90 million yearly gross from hotel rooms. Even if you apply a 20% net which is well above the 6 to 14% that is consider the range for well run hotels, you are still only looking at 18 Million in profits pre year or 900 million over 50 years

On the DVC side assuming average studio weekly points of 140, 2br of 400, GV of 750 and the lake facing Villas of 1200 for 50 salable weeks you get about 637K points. At $200 per point that comes to about 1.274 billion dollars. Construction should be in the 180 to 225 million range so even with sales cost Disney will net over a billion dollars on the DVC side.

Even at Disney excellent bonding rate, the 900 million that they might make from the hotel side over 50 years is only worth 400 million in current dollars or $660,000 per room/studio. One the DVC side each studio equivalent generates about 1.1 million in profits over 2-3 sales years.

This is why the idea of DLR being majority hotel will simply not happen. You might ask whey build hotels at all. The answer is that you need them for the non regular visitors, those who can not make the level of investment that DVC is, to get visitors initially hooked on the premium WDW experiance so they want to buy in, and as a DVC value comparison to keep the sales price high.

Sorry for all the numbers but if you want to know what Disney is likely to do you have to follow the dollars.

I understand your math, but I thought Disney had already told shareholders that the total was 900 units and the DVC side would be only 150-200 units of those? (@crvetter) Why would they announce those numbers to shareholders if it wasn't their plan?

 

[mamaofsix]

While I realize that the name may still be in flux, and since reflections makes no sense to me I am using DLR for now for simplicity

I had a few thoughts, first is that I would be very surprised if by total sqft for room that DVC uses was not more then half of the space. This in in part based on Disney’s reduction of cash rooms at Poly, WL and AKL over the past decade. In my opinion I think ¼ to 2/5 cash by room count is much more likely. This is also based on the short-term profit motive below.

First from the rendering and overall layout it is pretty clear that like BVW the hotel is the east end with DVC to the west of the portico. I also believe it is likely that the 10 raised units are part of the hotel and may be super premium suites. The 2 A frames may also contain premium hotel rooms since they scale as being way to big for a single occupancy given that they appear as though they have either a loft f 2nd floor.

So for the Hotel side I get 606 main building traditional hotel rooms, 10 likely 2br raised suites and 8 BW garden room types of mini suites.

On the DVC side, I count 848 studio equivalents, which could break out to 100 studios, 150 2br lockoffs, 100 2br dedicated and 11 3br GVs. Again to this you have to add the 8 a frame buildings. They appear way too big for a single unit unless they are moving to mega villas of 4 to 6 bedrooms. My guess is that they are at least 2 units per building with one 2 to 3 br as the dramatic lakeview with the 30 foot plus high glass front, and a second as a rear facing pond view.

So if you use a average hotel rack of $600, apply a 97% in service rate, a 85% occupancy rate and an 18% average discount you come up with about 90 million yearly gross from hotel rooms. Even if you apply a 20% net which is well above the 6 to 14% that is consider the range for well run hotels, you are still only looking at 18 Million in profits pre year or 900 million over 50 years

On the DVC side assuming average studio weekly points of 140, 2br of 400, GV of 750 and the lake facing Villas of 1200 for 50 salable weeks you get about 637K points. At $200 per point that comes to about 1.274 billion dollars. Construction should be in the 180 to 225 million range so even with sales cost Disney will net over a billion dollars on the DVC side.

Even at Disney excellent bonding rate, the 900 million that they might make from the hotel side over 50 years is only worth 400 million in current dollars or $660,000 per room/studio. One the DVC side each studio equivalent generates about 1.1 million in profits over 2-3 sales years.

This is why the idea of DLR being majority hotel will simply not happen. You might ask whey build hotels at all. The answer is that you need them for the non regular visitors, those who can not make the level of investment that DVC is, to get visitors initially hooked on the premium WDW experiance so they want to buy in, and as a DVC value comparison to keep the sales price high.

Sorry for all the numbers but if you want to know what Disney is likely to do you have to follow the dollars.

And are you getting your numbers from guessing by the concept art??

I wanted to add in that if Disney started to make larger villas that had 4-6 bedrooms, I would be all for that. Currently we rent an offsite house for our family with 6 bedrooms. One of my hesitations with jumping on the DVC bandwagon is that 3 bedrooms just isn't enough for us. Perhaps Disney wants to capitalize on the huge market of guests that currently rent offsite to get more space?

 

[Sandisw]

And are you getting your numbers from guessing by the concept art??

I wanted to add in that if Disney started to make larger villas that had 4-6 bedrooms, I would be all for that. Currently we rent an offsite house for our family with 6 bedrooms. One of my hesitations with jumping on the DVC bandwagon is that 3 bedrooms just isn't enough for us. Perhaps Disney wants to capitalize on the huge market of guests that currently rent offsite to get more space?

I think the problem is that units that big would not be practical in terms of cost to fit in the DVC model. 3 bedrooms run can run more than 100 a night in points. I can only imagine what they’d have to set those at.