I have a couple questions about crowd predictions for the party. I'm copying touringplans' predictions here to facilitate discussion. Sorry the format is a little wonky. The parties are listed in order of crowd level, from lowest to highest, so that number after the date is the ranking.
Party Date Rank Advance Purchase Price for an Adult Ticket Notes
Tuesday, September 11, 2018 Best Party $75
Tuesday, August 28, 2018 2 $75
Friday, September 07, 2018 3 $79
Friday, August 24, 2018 4 $79
Tuesday, September 25, 2018 4 $79
Friday, September 14, 2018 5 $79
Tuesday, October 02, 2018 6 $89
Sunday, September 09, 2018 7 $75
Tuesday, September 18, 2018 8 $75 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2015.
Sunday, September 30, 2018 9 $89
Thursday, October 04, 2018 10 $89 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2013.
Friday, August 17, 2018 11 $79
Monday, September 03, 2018 12 $75
Friday, August 31, 2018 13 $79
Sunday, September 16, 2018 14 $75
Tuesday, October 09, 2018 15 $99
Tuesday, October 16, 2018 16 $99 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2015.
Sunday, September 23, 2018 17 $75 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2015.
Friday, September 21, 2018 18 $79 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2013 and 2 days in advance in 2015.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 19 $99 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2013 and 2016 and 7 days in advance in 2014 and 2015.
Tuesday, October 30, 2018 20 $109
Friday, September 28, 2018 21 $89
Sunday, October 21, 2018 22 $99
Thursday, October 25, 2018 23 $99 Sold out 28 days in advance in 2014 and 14 days in advance in 2015.
Thursday, October 18, 2018 24 $99
Thursday, October 11, 2018 25 $99 Sold out 2 days in advance in 2013 and 1 day in advance in 2014.
Friday, October 26, 2018 26 $109
Friday, October 05, 2018 27 $109 Sold out 1 day in advance in both 2013 and 2015, and 2 days in advance in 2014.
Monday, October 08, 2018 28 $99 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2013 and 2014.
Friday, October 12, 2018 29 $109 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2014.
Friday, October 19, 2018 30 $109 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2014 and 2 days in advance in 2015.
Sunday, October 14, 2018 31 $99 Sold out 1 day in advance in 2014 & 2017.
Sunday, October 28, 2018 32 $109 Sold out 10 days in advance in 2016.
Wednesday, October 31, 2018 Most Crowded Party $125 Sold out 27 days in advance in 2013, 71 days in 2014, 89 (August 3!) days in 2015, 54 days in 2016, and 23 days in 2017. Crowds will be heavy for character meets and parades.
So now for my questions. Why do you think the Sunday, September 23rd party would be more crowded than Sunday, September 30th? Neither is a CM party. Do you think it's the price increase or do you think this projection is solely based on the fact that the 23rd sold out in 2015? Also, why would one sold out party be more crowded than another sold out party? Although what I guess is being ranked at this point is the probability of the party actually being sold out this year. It appears that the 31st always sells out, while the other sold out dates seem to be arbitrary from year to year.
Do you think I'm focusing too much on crowd level for the party date I choose? Has anyone ever been to both a sold-out party and a low-level-crowd party--if so, was there much of a difference between the experiences?