Indiana Jones set to be released soon

[PolymerSkywalker]

It has changed over the years, and I couldn't find anything for the streaming era, but in 2014 TV rights made up the largest percentage of a film's revenue. Prior to that it had been physical sales when the DVD market was super-hot. The fact is though that the TV rights still make up a significatn portion of total revenue and stations like TNT & USA pay a lot of money for these rights.

I would have to think this greatly favors the Lucas made stuff then. 40 years of TV revenue for the rights to show these movies, has to be astronomical. I would also argue that that physical media would greatly favor the Lucas made stuff as well, by a very large margin. Do people even buy physical media anymore? I have the OT on blue ray, I have the Prequels on blue ray, I don't physically own any of the Disney era stuff. I see no need when I can just flip on Disney+ and stream anything I want to watch. I guess this kind of one of the negative of the streaming situation, it has to have really cut the physical media sales.

Same with music, who on earth buys a CD anymore?

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

It has changed over the years, and I couldn't find anything for the streaming era, but in 2014 TV rights made up the largest percentage of a film's revenue. Prior to that it had been physical sales when the DVD market was super-hot. The fact is though that the TV rights still make up a significatn portion of total revenue and stations like TNT & USA pay a lot of money for these rights.

I would have to think this greatly favors the Lucas made stuff then. 40 years of TV revenue for the rights to show these movies, has to be astronomical. I would also argue that that physical media would greatly favor the Lucas made stuff as well, by a very large margin. Do people even buy physical media anymore? I have the OT on blue ray, I have the Prequels on blue ray, I don't physically own any of the Disney era stuff. I see no need when I can just flip on Disney+ and stream anything I want to watch.

 

[BrianL]

I would have to think this greatly favors the Lucas made stuff then. 40 years of TV revenue for the rights to show these movies, has to be astronomical. I would also argue that that physical media would greatly favor the Lucas made stuff as well, by a very large margin. Do people even buy physical media anymore? I have the OT on blue ray, I have the Prequels on blue ray, I don't physically own any of the Disney era stuff. I see no need when I can just flip on Disney+ and stream anything I want to watch. I guess this kind of one of the negative of the streaming situation, it has to have really cut the physical the physical media sales.

Same with music, who on earth buys a CD anymore?

Yeah, physical sales on genre material is generally higher. The box-sets were always hot. They have indeed shown Star Wars on TV for a long time.

In 2016 TNT/TBS paid $250M for the exclusive rights though 2024, for the movies that existed a the time, plus a seperate deal for An New Hope with Fox (before the merger). That's ALL profit for the studio and will be renogiatated next year OR sold to a higher bidder, Disney may keep them for FX/FXX/Freeform though too. I think before this, USA showed them a lot (the first six anyway). Basically the TV rights make profit forever.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

If the new Indy movie opens to only the $60 Million many are now predicting, it essentially has very little chance to even break even. The budget is ultimately the issue though. Tons of issues during filming of this movie, and massive amounts of reshoots as well. Unfortunately this has plagued many of the Disney movies in the last few years.

Disney may not have a movie that makes money all year, other than Guardians.

I want to see them figure it out and turn the corner, so that stock price can begin to recover.

 

[BrianL]

If the new Indy movie opens to only the $60 Million many are now predicting, it essentially has very little chance to even break even. The budget is ultimately the issue though. Tons of issues during filming of this movie, and massive amounts of reshoots as well. Unfortunately this has plagued many of the Disney movies in the last few years.

Disney may not have a movie that makes money all year, other than Guardians.

I want to see them figure it out and turn the corner, so that stock price can begin to recover.

It's sad whant $60M is considered a bomb. That said, I think it will likely edge higher than that, though at this point it's hard to say that it will be huge.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Agreed, they have to get the budgets under control. Indy should be a celebrated hit instead of being seen as a box office flop due to having double the budget it should have. I am hearing this may be the most expensive movie ever made if you add up production and marketing budgets.

 

[BrianL]

Agreed, they have to get the budgets under control. Indy should be a celebrated hit instead of being seen as a box office flop due to having double the budget it should have. I am hearing this may be the most expensive movie ever made if you add up production and marketing budgets.

The crazy thing is that Indy actually works as a less polished movie. Like, I understand why it's hard to make a Star Wars film on a lower budget, but Indy already has those pulp-serial vibes. You don't need to throw all the money in the world at it.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

100% agree, an Indy movie that is grungy and less than perfectly shot would work perfectly. Heck, I may actually prefer it to be honest.

 

[BrianL]

100% agree, an Indy movie that is grungy and less than perfectly shot would work perfectly. Heck, I may actually prefer it to be honest.

Yeah, and that's not something that just everyone can pull off. Spielberg certainly could though. I still think this movie will be good, but I do wish Steven had directed it.

 

[GAN]

I think this film is going to be HUGE. The timing is perfect -most people have been past the pandemic concerns for a long enough period now where they should be ready to see a fairly highly anticipated film like this. I hadn't been back to a theater myself up till a couple weeks ago(for no particular reason), but I'm eager to see this one!

 

[BrianL]

I think this film is going to be HUGE. The timing is perfect -most people have been past the pandemic concerns for a long enough period now where they should be ready to see a fairly highly anticipated film like this. I hadn't been back to a theater myself up till a couple weeks ago(for no particular reason), but I'm eager to see this one!

I certainly hope so. If it gets some good word of mouth I think it should do well. It has 14 days until Mission: Impossible comes out, which is probably it's competition. It gets the holiday too. I know soem early reviews weren't kind, but, really, it's probably not really a Cannes type of movie.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

Early reviews I have seen don’t look great. Box office projections don’t look great. Budget was massive, so I think this movie will have a very tough time breaking even. I will be very surprised is this movie is a financial success.

 

[BrianL]

Early reviews I have seen don’t look great. Box office projections don’t look great. Budget was massive, so I think this movie will have a very tough time breaking even. I will be very surprised is this movie is a financial success.

The budget is definitely a concern. I do think it will do well, but will it do well enough?

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

The budget is definitely a concern. I do think it will do well, but will it do well enough?

May go down as one of the most expensive movies ever made, so it should certainly be a concern.

 

[BrianL]

May go down as one of the most expensive movies ever made, so it should certainly be a concern.

Well, it's top 10 for sure. I feel like it can do $1B though, in which case it'll be fine. $700M is the bare minimum.

 

[RivShore]

Wikipedia has it at number 13:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Jones_and_the_Dial_of_Destiny

On a related note, man Disney likes to spend money on movies!!

 

[BrianL]

Wikipedia has it at number 13:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Jones_and_the_Dial_of_Destiny

On a related note, man Disney likes to spend money on movies!!


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Keep in mind that these numbers likely do not include P&A.

 

[RivShore]

Keep in mind that these numbers likely do not include P&A.

Yep, it is Production budget only.

I assume the old "double it for total cost" still works in general?

 

[BrianL]

Yep, it is Production budget only.

I assume the old "double it for total cost" still works in general?

Oh, no - not double THOSE numbers. It's more like $75M, mayne $100M on the high end. When movies actaully HAD budgets of $75M, that would have worked.

 

[PolymerSkywalker]

I read an estimate of around $100 Million in marketing and advertising for Indy 5. So all in it is approaching $400 Million. That’s where my number is $800+ million to break even comes from.