How will all of this affect Reflections?

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

When was the last time they didn’t have any WDW resorts for sale? Was it before OKW was announced? After RIV sells out it’s gonna be just Aulani; perhaps they can get Disneyland Hotel Villas to the point where they can sell them but with them still needing the city and state to sign off it’s not going to be quick.

This leads me to believe they don’t expect riveria to sell out any time soon.

 

[wishicouldgomoreofte]

It was earlier than that. Eagle Pines was a post-9/11 (2001) casualty, when they decided to instead convert The Disney Institute to Saratoga Springs.

During the 2008/2009 recession, the projects most likely derailed were:

- National Harbor (Wash DC) off-site hotel
- Second Disneyland DVC
- Possibly the original River Country / Ft. Wilderness project

Bay Lake Tower and Grand Californian both opened during the recession, while DVC also had SSR and AKV points left to sell. And they also pressed-forward with Aulani.

Yes, I was really looking forward to the National Harbor Wash DC hotel or DVC. Gave up on hoping that would still come back around to fruition.

 

[pkrieger2287]

https://dvcfan.com/2020/06/14/rumor-reflections-a-disney-lakeside-lodge-canceled/

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Aulani will be on sale until at least 2025.

 

[pkrieger2287]

Aulani will be on sale until at least 2025.

And that's being optimistic! Lol

 

[CarolMN]

This leads me to believe they don’t expect riveria to sell out any time soon.

IMO, it's mostly a cash flow issue related to the closures.

As I posted earlier in this thread, it's likely that the capital budget has been cut to help with the current situation.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

IMO, it's mostly a cash flow issue related to the closures.

As I posted earlier in this thread, it's likely that the capital budget has been cut to help with the current situation.

If they thought they could sell it, they would build it. The economic outlook has changed. They would likely have big problems getting this to sell while Riviera still hasn't sold out

Makes me wonder about the Atlantis mega-resort being built next to Aulani

 

[RangerPooh]

Yes, I was really looking forward to the National Harbor Wash DC hotel or DVC. Gave up on hoping that would still come back around to fruition.

We were living just outside DC in 2009-2010 and it was big news. Returned to visit National Harbor a few years back and discussed how we had forgotten all about the abandoned project. It's like to was announced and then vanished.

 

[bookwormde]

Historically there has been a 9 to 12 month overlap for DVC resort sales. There is also likely about 14 to 18 month construction time so that says 23 to 30 months to Riviera sell out to stay in typical sequencing.

 

[glamdring269]

Aulani will be on sale until at least 2025.

If they keep the current resale restrictions it will not surprise me if Riviera doesn't sell out until 2025-26.

 

[Popouri DVC]

I’m sad about Reflections!

 

[SL6827]

Yes, that is bad about Reflections, but not surprising. And I bet Disney is dissapointed in the fact that another DVC-2 resort will not be in the cards soon. With them having only one DVC-2 resort, it doesn't seem to make thier resale restriction as bad.

 

[NoTime42]

If Reflections was going to be half cash/half DVC I could see the cash side getting cancelled and changing plans.

it does make me wonder if Disney is offering DVC another option (like when Eagle Pines got deferred to the Institute/SSR)
Is BLT2, Poly tower, or Epcot entrance rumor back on the table for DVC?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

If Reflections was going to be half cash/half DVC I could see the cash side getting cancelled and changing plans.

it does make me wonder if Disney is offering DVC another option (like when Eagle Pines got deferred to the Institute/SSR)
Is BLT2, Poly tower, or Epcot entrance rumor back on the table for DVC?

Maybe they'll just finish the CBR takeover and make it all DVC.

 

[tjkraz]

If Reflections was going to be half cash/half DVC I could see the cash side getting cancelled and changing plans.

It was more like 1/3 DVC, 2/3 hotel.

it does make me wonder if Disney is offering DVC another option (like when Eagle Pines got deferred to the Institute/SSR)
Is BLT2, Poly tower, or Epcot entrance rumor back on the table for DVC?

Right now, Disney is going to struggle just to get cash guests into their hotel, much less commit to 50 years of DVC ownership. I expect riviera to plod along very slowly, thru no fault of DVC's.

Depending on if/when tourism picks up, converting more hotel may be the logical approach. Disney still has over 5000 deluxe hotel rooms. If we assume the absolute best case scenario--a vaccine by early 2021 and tourism recovery by next summer--they could convert more hotel rooms at the Poly, Grand Floridian or another as a quick-fix for DVC points. More likely, this could drag out a couple years giving Disney a lot of time to ponder the best site to light a fire under DVC sales. And it still may be hotel room conversions unless Disney has reason to believe they'll be filling those 30,000 rooms again soon.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

I would say that Reflections will be on hold for quite a while. Disney has burned through a lot of cash without anything of consequence coming in for a while now. It will take a while for them to build back up their cash reserves.

At this point, I'd say that the next DVC property will probably be at Disneyland, not Disney World. That particular project, collocated at Disneyland Hotel, is more likely to sell quickly as opposed to Reflections due to lack of DVC inventory at Disneyland.

If they were able to sell out Riviera before Reflections is completed in the future, they can always try to sell out Aulani and ROFR some inventory to resell and keep DVC prices up.

I would characterize this news as Reflections 'postponed', not cancelled. 2025 is sounding like a reasonable completion date.

 

[ocdb8r1]

I would not be surprised if this was a close to permanent cancellation. I feel like WDW has been pursuing two strategies (somewhat) at odds with one another during this last growth phase:

1) a fairly aggressive expansion of on-site room availability, seeming to focus on increasing volume (although one could argue it was also an attempt to gain greater market share, few of the recent room adds compete well on price with off-site options); and

2) rapid price increases that paint to a strategy of focusing on higher spend customers and lower/more balanced park attendance as well as "premium" experiences (after hours events, dessert parties, private tours...etc).

During the economic expansion post-2009 crisis, I think they were able to feed both these strategies with sufficient high(er) spend customers to both fill their on-site rooms AND pay their increase ticket prices and buy-up for premium experiences. Post-COVID they are likely facing a situation where both the economic consequences and the social distancing measures will demand accepting a reality of lower volume (and the only way to compensate for that lower volume will be to get as much out of more high-spend customers). To me, it would seem a shift to converting existing rooms to DVC would make more sense than adding volume to the resort.

I also think that until they add significant capacity to the parks experience (via more significant expansion of existing parks or addition of a new park) they shouldn't add more on-site room capacity.

Now, I could be wrong. We could have the infamous "V shaped" rapid economic recovery, a vaccine could be ready and deployed before year-end and/or Disney could come up with some interesting technological solution to permit higher park attendance (revamp of fastpass, virtual queues...etc). However, as Disney (parks) increasingly globalizes, I would still think a model where WDW in Florida serves as the creme de la creme premium experience, focused on high-spend customers (with the local/regional parks absorbing the rest) is where we are headed.

 

[bookwormde]

It was more like 1/3 DVC, 2/3 hotel.

While the number of rooms was slightly higher for cash the square footage and occupancy numbers were significantly greater for the DVC side (at least by the plans we have so far)

 

[pinkxray]

If they cancel Reflections altogether I think direct sales will take a hit. I just bought my first DVC contract resale. I am on the fence if I really want to spend extra on my next contract to get the blue card. The biggest factor that was pushing me to just get the 100pts direct was that I can’t stay at the new resorts with resale points. I don’t care much about Riviera and dont go to CA so with no reflections I will just buy the resort I really want resale. Sure maybe in the future they might build more resorts but I can always pay cash to check it out.

 

[mamaofsix]

If they cancel Reflections altogether I think direct sales will take a hit. I just bought my first DVC contract resale. I am on the fence if I really want to spend extra on my next contract to get the blue card. The biggest factor that was pushing me to just get the 100pts direct was that I can’t stay at the new resorts with resale points. I don’t care much about Riviera and dont go to CA so with no reflections I will just buy the resort I really want resale. Sure maybe in the future they might build more resorts but I can always pay cash to check it out.

I agree. We are looking into buying DVC and literally the only reason we were considering direct was the ability to stay at Reflections. If that's off the table, we'll 100% be buying resale.