How will all of this affect Reflections?

[CastAStone]

I am not sure there is much difference between paused and canceled. When was the last time Disney postponed something and brought it back exactly how they planned it the first time? They always replan everything.

I also think Disney is reevaluating whether they really want another combo DVC-Hotel. It must have been a huge headache for them through all this to have to open so many resorts that will be mostly empty. Yes pandemics are uncommon but they are poorly prepared for any sort of attendance decline or temporary shutdown with so many DVCs spread across so many properties. I could see them deciding to build more at existing properties.

 

[jlb727]

Aw, I was looking forward to that lazy river and (hopefully) a less point-hungry chart than Riviera. Oh well. Guess I won't be buying direct now.

 

[zavandor]

I am not sure there is much difference between paused and canceled. When was the last time Disney postponed something and brought it back exactly how they planned it the first time? They always replan everything.

I also think Disney is reevaluating whether they really want another combo DVC-Hotel. It must have been a huge headache for them through all this to have to open so many resorts that will be mostly empty. Yes pandemics are uncommon but they are poorly prepared for any sort of attendance decline or temporary shutdown with so many DVCs spread across so many properties. I could see them deciding to build more at existing properties.

Post 9/11 and 2008 crash, everyone said that converting rooms to DVC was a great idea also because they would future proof Disney against recession. Once hundreds of thousands of people own points that they must user or lose, they have a lot of guaranteed guests for the theme parks even during a recession.
Who could have thought about a pandemic? Right now, when reopening the parks with very limited attendance cap, DVC is a headache. With so many rooms, they have enough onsite guests not paying cash rates to fill a good portion of that low cap. This leaves little room for cash guests or offsite guests.

 

[tjkraz]

Post 9/11 and 2008 crash, everyone said that converting rooms to DVC was a great idea also because they would future proof Disney against recession. Once hundreds of thousands of people own points that they must user or lose, they have a lot of guaranteed guests for the theme parks even during a recession.
Who could have thought about a pandemic? Right now, when reopening the parks with very limited attendance cap, DVC is a headache. With so many rooms, they have enough onsite guests not paying cash rates to fill a good portion of that low cap. This leaves little room for cash guests or offsite guests.

I somewhat agree. Without DVC, Disney certainly wouldn’t be reopening 10 separate resorts. And they wouldn’t be opening anything in June. But I’m not convinced cash guests will be squeezed out. Not to such a degree that would make them think “gosh, we sure wish we didn’t have to accommodate those 15-20k DVC members in the parks every single day.“

 

[SL6827]

Who would have thought, correct? I knew that Disney could shut down for a bit for a hurricane, but that was the only thing I ever thought might happen. Boy was I wrong.

 

[Popouri DVC]

Disney has NEVER closed in this manner before.... it is unprecedented.

But, there hasn’t been a worldwide pandemic for about the last 100 years, so it’s not like it’s really something they could have planned for...

Like everyone else, we will have to wait-and-see HOW they reopen and what that “new normal” will look like, and second, whether we choose to live with it and continue to vacation at Disney.....or not.

 

[Lorana]

I can't express how sad I am that Reflections is likely cancelled. We had been eagerly awaiting it. A resort combining some of the feel of the Wilderness Lodge with the pool of the Beach Club, and walking distance to both Fort Wilderness and WL? Yes, please!

 

[SL6827]

I can't express how sad I am that Reflections is likely cancelled. We had been eagerly awaiting it. A resort combining some of the feel of the Wilderness Lodge with the pool of the Beach Club, and walking distance to both Fort Wilderness and WL? Yes, please!

Ya, that lazy river would have been nice.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I could see them deciding to build more at existing properties.

I was actually thinking the opposite - that they would now want more stand alone buildings for DVC. Reflections kind of had that but I think the large hotel side is what is killing it - Disney doesn't want more of their own rooms right now.

DVC? We pay for it and cover a lot of the costs that allow Disney to reopen resorts with little expense and have cash rooms to move people to (to a point). It's been a pain during the shut down but is probably soon to be a big benefit.

 

[CastAStone]

I was actually thinking the opposite - that they would now want more stand alone buildings for DVC. Reflections kind of had that but I think the large hotel side is what is killing it - Disney doesn't want more of their own rooms right now.

DVC? We pay for it and cover a lot of the costs that allow Disney to reopen resorts with little expense and have cash rooms to move people to (to a point). It's been a pain during the shut down but is probably soon to be a big benefit.

I agree that all DVC is another good option for Disney. I think what they are learning that they have enough of is DVC-Hotel combos.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Disneyland Hotel DVC has some minor tweaks into something that can stand alone if it’s ever needed to, even if that’s just it’s own dedicated check in.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

How I feel about this....

 

[iflyjetzzz]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Disneyland Hotel DVC has some minor tweaks into something that can stand alone if it’s ever needed to, even if that’s just it’s own dedicated check in.

That probably wouldn't be a difficult fix. While the two buildings could be interconnected most of the time, a set of heavy doors that can be locked if the hotel is closed would solve that problem. Of course that diminishes the advantages of shared resources such as a single check in desk for both properties.

 

[Deb & Bill]

How long did AoA stand unfinished before they renamed it and completed the resort?

 

[CastAStone]

How long did AoA stand unfinished before they renamed it and completed the resort?

8 or 9 years, I believe.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

How long did AoA stand unfinished before they renamed it and completed the resort?

About ten years; it was supposed to be part of Pop Century.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I say make the next DVC an expansion of the Beach Club (on vacant property close to Epcot) or the Yacht Club Resort (#2 choice) or Port Orleans (#3) .

 

[SL6827]

I say make the next DVC an expansion of the Beach Club (on vacant property close to Epcot) or the Yacht Club Resort (#2 choice) or Port Orleans (#3) .

Yatch Club. But with such, would SAB suffer with more guest being eligble to be there?

 

[Royal Consort]

I am not sure there is much difference between paused and canceled. When was the last time Disney postponed something and brought it back exactly how they planned it the first time? They always replan everything.

They do. Re-announcing a 'postponed' resort in the same design years after the fact lacks any excitement or interest. Those who developed the project initially may have moved on. If this project is to go ahead, it will likely be in a different form. Reflections in its current iteration is done.

 

[ukeemom]

My opinion - DVC resort sales are going to be in the dumper for at least a year, maybe longer, and they know this.
Riviera was going to take at least another 4 years to sell out. Now they might be looking at 5 or 6 years.
In addition, the resort was going to be a cash/DVC split resort - and right now they probably don't have a good feeling about the cash business either.
For that reason - I would expect that there would be at least a one-year delay in construction of any new DVC resort.

Whether they keep it as reflections or not is anyone's guess. If it's really delayed a year, I would think that it will stay similar in scope and design - but in reality who knows..

 

[bookwormde]

My opinion - DVC resort sales are going to be in the dumper for at least a year, maybe longer, and they know this.
Riviera was going to take at least another 4 years to sell out. Now they might be looking at 5 or 6 years.
In addition, the resort was going to be a cash/DVC split resort - and right now they probably don't have a good feeling about the cash business either.
For that reason - I would expect that there would be at least a one-year delay in construction of any new DVC resort.

Whether they keep it as reflections or not is anyone's guess. If it's really delayed a year, I would think that it will stay similar in scope and design - but in reality who knows..

Roughly 5.4 million points were left as of shut down, that means 30 to 36 months at typical sales rate. Full shut down has moved that restart point to July now.

2/3 average sales rate for a year would extend the time frame by 4 month, 50% would extend it by 6 months. It would take a 50% sales rate drop for the full sales period to extend the sales time frame to 45 to 54 months.