How will all of this affect Reflections?

[mrsap]

https://dvcnews.com/other-resources/feature-articles/4729-what-does-covid-19-mean-for-reflections

 

[SpaceMountain77]

The concept art for Reflections suggests a modern Hyatt/Marriott style resort that is decorated with Disney art. It is my sincere hope that this project is put on hold and, when revisited, a themed resort, similar to Animal Kingdom Lodge or Wilderness Lodge, is proposed and built.

 

[CastAStone]

Martin Smith, a reliable insider at WDWMagic and creator of the MartinsVids Disney attraction tributes, seems to have heard some bad news. From a thread on what's getting canceled or delayed:

I’d keep an eye on Reflections.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

Martin Smith, a reliable insider at WDWMagic and creator of the MartinsVids Disney attraction tributes, seems to have heard some bad news. From a thread on what's getting canceled or delayed:

I just saw an article yesterday saying Reflections work was going ahead. Commencement of work filings earlier this week.

https://insidethemagic.net/2020/04/disney-world-construction-progress-reflections-lodge-tm1/

 

[bookwormde]

I just saw an article yesterday saying Reflections work was going ahead. Commencement of work filings earlier this week.

https://insidethemagic.net/2020/04/disney-world-construction-progress-reflections-lodge-tm1/

These sound like the same projects that were permitted at the beginning of the month

 

[sethschroeder]

If Disney does not get to building a lot more of the "DVC-2" resorts, that might derail their hopes of more people buying direct in order to stay at all the resorts, you think? I could see resale being more attractive when there is only one resort they can't stay at.

I cant see anyone buying direct for Reflections except those buying at Reflections.

Why do I say that?

You have a similarly themed outdoors style resort next door which is the last resort in the open to anyone bunch.

Riviera gets a boost simply from BWV and BCV ending in 2042.

I know people are excited but I can't see why based on what we currently have drawings of. I am sure the athsetics will be really nice though.

 

[bookwormde]

Other then being the newest resort it will be interesting to see what DVD does to differentiate it from CCV since they are likely to have many similarities (room types, expiration date, general location and transportation options etc).

This will be particularly interesting once Reflections resales come on the market, if they are substantially below CCV due to the restrictions

 

[CarolMN]

Other then being the newest resort it will be interesting to see what DVD does to differentiate it from CCV since they are likely to have many similarities (room types, expiration date, general location and transportation options etc).

This will be particularly interesting once Reflections resales come on the market, if they are substantially below CCV due to the restrictions

The point chart will be even more interesting to me. I'm sure it will be substantially higher than that for CCV. Hard to imagine what Reflections could offer that would be more attractive than the CCV/BRV/WL complex given what I assume will be the points per night difference.

 

[bookwormde]

The point chart will be even more interesting to me. I'm sure it will be substantially higher than that for CCV. Hard to imagine what Reflections could offer that would be more attractive than the CCV/BRV/WL complex given what I assume will be the points per night difference.

Yes that will be a major factor also. Given the configuration I could see a "standard view" with points at even below CCV to attract sales, but with pool and lake views in line with BLT

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

I cant see anyone buying direct for Reflections except those buying at Reflections.

Why do I say that?

You have a similarly themed outdoors style resort next door which is the last resort in the open to anyone bunch.

Riviera gets a boost simply from BWV and BCV ending in 2042.

I know people are excited but I can't see why based on what we currently have drawings of. I am sure the athsetics will be really nice though.

Really depends on the room layout, point charts, and capacity. We liked copper creek a lot but couldn’t do it because we sometimes need room for a 5th person. And even the 1 bedrooms didn’t allow for a 5th guest in copper creek. So if reflections allows 5 in studio and 1 bedroom we’d definitely consider it. Unless the point charts were as lousy as the riveria and then maybe not. Actually looking back we probably could have done Copper Creek and just booked 2 bedrooms since they are cheaper than 1 bedrooms at the Riveria. We still liked BLT slightly more though.

 

[sethschroeder]

Given the configuration I could see a "standard view" with points at even below CCV to attract sales, but with pool and lake views in line with BLT

I don't think its even close to that and will easily be more expensive unless DVC is doing terrible which at that point they might simply choose to take a longer sales cycle with RIV/REF. Remember when they set these points charts they will impact 50 years of DVC. For most people they can simply do more incentives on the purchase.

I think at best Standard views are in line with Riviera which is roughly 10% more then you go up from there.

 

[bookwormde]

I don't think its even close to that and will easily be more expensive unless DVC is doing terrible which at that point they might simply choose to take a longer sales cycle with RIV/REF. Remember when they set these points charts they will impact 50 years of DVC. For most people they can simply do more incentives on the purchase.

I think at best Standard views are in line with Riviera which is roughly 10% more then you go up from there.

That is possible if DVD does not have anything else in the pipeline, but given "offset" land purchases this year I already have a guess of the next site and it would be a big one (8 to 12M points as a mid rise)

Maybe I am being conservative after thinking the CCV would be higher than VWL..

 

[CastAStone]

I don't think Disney will want whatever's next (are you guessing BLT2?) to overlap too much with Reflections, nor Reflections to overlap too much with Riviera. Putting too many resorts on sale at once is partly responsible for AKV taking 7 years to sell out, SSR taking 8, and Aulani to take, well, who knows. July they "celebrate" 10 years of trying to sell that resort.

 

[bookwormde]

I don't think Disney will want whatever's next (are you guessing BLT2?) to overlap too much with Reflections, nor Reflections to overlap too much with Riviera. Putting too many resorts on sale at once is partly responsible for AKV taking 7 years to sell out, SSR taking 8, and Aulani to take, well, who knows. July they "celebrate" 10 years of trying to sell that resort.

I seams like 12 to 18 month overlap is typical, so yes I agree and is why stretching out sales creates an issue. at 300 to 400% profit maintaining gross can have more impact than a limited point cost value adjustment.

No I am not thinking of BLT2 (or BLT3) that is further down my list. Think back to proposed projects from the early 2000s, though I think the configuration would be quite different.

 

[sethschroeder]

That is possible if DVD does not have anything else in the pipeline, but given "offset" land purchases this year I already have a guess of the next site and it would be a big one (8 to 12M points as a mid rise)

Maybe I am being conservative after thinking the CCV would be higher than VWL..

The new land is nothing more than likely groups finally ready to sell to Disney for the right price. I am not 100% sure though.

If you are building in the MK area they have land between VGF and MK that now has a walkway running along the water. Any backstage of MK could be hidden or redone to account for this new resort which would be similarly placed to BLT.

I don't see it very plausible to build a skyliner just for a new DVC resort. In order to get the Skyliner to work now they needed 2 parks and 6700 rooms (DVC and mostly hotel) across 4 resorts (3 of the largest as well).

 

[bookwormde]

The new land is nothing more than likely groups finally ready to sell to Disney for the right price. I am not 100% sure though.

If you are building in the MK area they have land between VGF and MK that now has a walkway running along the water. Any backstage of MK could be hidden or redone to account for this new resort which would be similarly placed to BLT.

I don't see it very plausible to build a skyliner just for a new DVC resort. In order to get the Skyliner to work now they needed 2 parks and 6700 rooms (DVC and mostly hotel) across 4 resorts (3 of the largest as well).

Yes MK west/GF north is on my list also but not the one I was thinking about which is at a walk to parks/monorail location

 

[sethschroeder]

This is my roadmap:

2019-2023 Riviera
2024-2028 Reflections
2026-2030 Disneyland
2029-2031 Coronado Springs Conversion (Skyliner between HS <-> AK)
2032-2035 MK West (between VGF + MK)

Then you start to get in to presales of 2042, another WDW DVC conversion of a moderate (maybe more CBR), and possibly a Disney non-US expansion.

 

[sethschroeder]

Yes MK west/GF north is on my list also but not the one I was thinking about which is at a walk to parks/monorail location

Convention center location then? I guess I am not seeing where the land purchases comes in to play in your mind.

 

[bookwormde]

Convention center location then? I guess I am not seeing where the land purchases comes in to play in your mind.

Availability of conservation area matching/offset was one of the original barriers to moving forward. close if you are thinking of YC but across the street. CR would be BLT3

 

[Beachmom0317]

The point chart will be even more interesting to me. I'm sure it will be substantially higher than that for CCV. Hard to imagine what Reflections could offer that would be more attractive than the CCV/BRV/WL complex given what I assume will be the points per night difference.

We love the Wilderness lodge, fort wilderness and own at CCV. I would totally add on at Reflections since we just love the theming. But if points are much higher than CCV (and honestly they probably will be), we’ll prob just add on resale at CCV. I wonder if they’d do something like AKL and do DVC club level? That would separate it from offerings at CCV