Too Many Hotels, Not Enough Parks

[TheMaxRebo]

I definitely see your point and agree that the magnitude (or definition of drastically) is subjective. I said it before that I see various guest "buckets" of which the onsite guests would be a higher percentage of theme park attendees.

I do think that an onsite guest vs an off site guest is more likely to spend a higher % of their stay in the WDW parks and those offsite are more likely to spend more of their time doing non-WDW activities. But like you said, magnitude is subjective and probably hard to quantify. I think currently such a large % of daily guests stay off site that while there will likely be an uptick in park guests if there are more onsite hotel rooms (assuming same occupancy rate) it will be relatively small and certainly a smaller impact than Galaxy's Edge or the other in-park construction will bring.

I will say it would be hard to argue that more on-site hotel rooms would lead to lower park attendance - so even if the increase is rather small, it is still an increase

 

[rteetz]

I agree, but get the sense this viewpoint, from Disney's standpoint, is only until another onsite value becomes feasible.

I think it’s feasible right now but Disney would rather build DVC or Deluxe because they can get more money.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I think it’s feasible right now but Disney would rather build DVC or Deluxe because they can get more money.

DVC is definitely a big part as they get a ton of $ upfront (and money today is worth more than money in the future)

If the riviera is successful (which, while a separate resort is sort of like a DVC at a moderate) I wonder if in the future they could do one at a highly themed value. If they had separate "deluxe like" amenities I am sure there are people that would be interested in DVC at Art of Animation, for example - especially now with the gondolas

 

[hertamaniac]

I think it’s feasible right now but Disney would rather build DVC or Deluxe because they can get more money.

Yes, and without general guest labeling, I see it very possible that DVC and Deluxe guests might have more disposable income for other resort/park activities.

 

[hertamaniac]

I think currently such a large % of daily guests stay off site that while there will likely be an uptick in park guests if there are more onsite hotel rooms (assuming same occupancy rate) it will be relatively small and certainly a smaller impact than Galaxy's Edge or the other in-park construction will bring.

Oh absolutely. I'm reminded of the Field of Dreams whisper, "if you build it, they will come" applies more to theme park attractions at WDW than it would by building any resort(s).

 

[rteetz]

If the riviera is successful (which, while a separate resort is sort of like a DVC at a moderate) I wonder if in the future they could do one at a highly themed value. If they had separate "deluxe like" amenities I am sure there are people that would be interested in DVC at Art of Animation, for example - especially now with the gondolas

Possible but I am not sure they have the space at a resort like AoA for a DVC resort. I could see something at a Port Orleans. I think their next focus is another stand alone DVC at Ft. Wilderness/River Country.

 

[rteetz]

Yes, and without general guest labeling, I see it very possible that DVC and Deluxe guests might have more disposable income for other resort/park activities.

Of course they do. Not everyone can take on a $15,000+ contract with yearly dues. And then not everyone can stay $300+ a night. The deluxe and DVC resorts typically have high occupancy though so people are definitely paying it.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Possible but I am not sure they have the space at a resort like AoA for a DVC resort. I could see something at a Port Orleans. I think their next focus is another stand alone DVC at Ft. Wilderness/River Country.

Oh yeah, definitely not next ... just thinking further out that if they do ever decide to build another Value, that maybe they could think of adding a DVC component to that and sort of kill two birds with one stone.

 

[hertamaniac]

Of course they do. Not everyone can take on a $15,000+ contract with yearly dues. And then not everyone can stay $300+ a night. The deluxe and DVC resorts typically have high occupancy though so people are definitely paying it.

That was gulp moment for me for sure (re: $15-25K contract, plus dues, plus taxes). Maybe the deluxe guests aren't staying as long as mods/values, but to WDW does it really matter who is in the DVC/Deluxe so long as it is occupied; I'm agreeing with you on the occupancy point.

I think an interesting question might be: Do value/mod. guests stay longer and spend more, in aggregate, than a shorter stay DVC/Deluxe?

 

[Firebird060]

I find it funny that people think Disney truely Cares about crowd size. Disney wants there parks to be crowded, it allows them to make more money and then also make "hard ticketed events" That allow them to manipulate crowd levels for the guests paying them extra money to do so.

Yes Disney is getting more and more crowded, yes even for people like myself who like to go several times a year, we notice it. Do the crowds bother me? Yes and no, It bothers me when people run into me, I am 6'4 in a kilt so I know im not hard to see, but at the same time it doesnt bother me because I can sit back with my wife at a Bench or near the Main Street Train Station, and just people watch.

Its a vacation that people are willing to pay a large amount of Money to go on. Adding or Subtracting Rooms, doesnt really effect the crowd size. Disney has manipulated the schedule with Wine Fest, and Garden Fest, and the Holidays to pretty much make null and void the traditional less busy times. In saying that I still love April- Early May because it can be one of the few low crowd times without the super Florida Humidity.

Regardless though Disney wants its parks full and crowded and it wants its resorts full. Adding more rooms only allows Disney to accommodate more guests in the bubble, what truely effects the number of people in the Parks is the number of people who want to visit the parks and can afford it. Adding rooms does nothing to effect the amount of people who can afford a Disney vacation. Its not like Disney magically building more rooms is going to increase a families overall Take home pay. All it does is allow Disney to make more money by making available more rooms with more options for people who were already coming to Orlando to decide if they want to stay at.

Would I love a 5th Park, most defiantly, would a 5th park help lower crowd levels yes for awhile, will more people come because there is a 5th park, sure the once and a lifers will have another reason to become a twice or three time in the lifers. You can not blame hotel rooms for crowd levels. If anything we should be blaming Disneys marketing team for doing to good of a Job in making people feel like they need to bring there kids to Disney to be "good parents" or making International guests want to spend alot more money than us Domestics do to visit the US for two weeks and hit Disney and Universal. The number of rooms is just a scapegoat.

 

[rteetz]

I think an interesting question might be: Do value/mod. guests stay longer and spend more, in aggregate, than a shorter stay DVC/Deluxe?

I think it depends on the guest.

 

[Firebird060]

I think overall since Disney is building more Deluxe rooms, the data would suggest that regardless of who stays longer a Deluxe Guest prob spends more money, on food and other Disney things besides rooms, that make the Deluxe guests the cash cow that Disney is looking to milk. I mean a couple staying at the Pop for 10 days at lets say 170 a night while another couple could stay at the Grand for 670 a night in October for 5 days. Yes the Pop Guest will spend less on the room and more on tickets but over all the Grand Guests will still spend More if you account for the 500 dollar a night Difference. Also the GF person is also more likely to visit the more upscale Disney restaurants which are on the Grands Property than lets say the Couple at the Pop. You would need 2 couples at the Pop staying for 10 days to equal the same Dollar value as one at the Grand. This is the reason why Disney wants to build more Deluxe Resorts, the guests are willing to pay more and the assessed tax bill on the property is only 2 million different. In 2016 the Pop was taxed as 3,773,684.08 and the Grand at 5,305,019.34. So it makes since Disney would want to build more Deluxe/DVC because both in the grand scheme of things the properties arent taxed at 2 much different if you figure the maintenance points charged to DVC members actually can cover the difference in Taxes and the average Deluxe DVC guest is more likely to pay more on food and merch.

 

[OKW Lover]

That was gulp moment for me for sure (re: $15-25K contract, plus dues, plus taxes).

Not sure what taxes you are including here. Property taxes are included as part of your dues.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I find it funny that people think Disney truely Cares about crowd size. Disney wants there parks to be crowded, it allows them to make more money and then also make "hard ticketed events" That allow them to manipulate crowd levels for the guests paying them extra money to do so.

Yes Disney is getting more and more crowded, yes even for people like myself who like to go several times a year, we notice it. Do the crowds bother me? Yes and no, It bothers me when people run into me, I am 6'4 in a kilt so I know im not hard to see, but at the same time it doesnt bother me because I can sit back with my wife at a Bench or near the Main Street Train Station, and just people watch.

Its a vacation that people are willing to pay a large amount of Money to go on. Adding or Subtracting Rooms, doesnt really effect the crowd size. Disney has manipulated the schedule with Wine Fest, and Garden Fest, and the Holidays to pretty much make null and void the traditional less busy times. In saying that I still love April- Early May because it can be one of the few low crowd times without the super Florida Humidity.

Regardless though Disney wants its parks full and crowded and it wants its resorts full. Adding more rooms only allows Disney to accommodate more guests in the bubble, what truely effects the number of people in the Parks is the number of people who want to visit the parks and can afford it. Adding rooms does nothing to effect the amount of people who can afford a Disney vacation. Its not like Disney magically building more rooms is going to increase a families overall Take home pay. All it does is allow Disney to make more money by making available more rooms with more options for people who were already coming to Orlando to decide if they want to stay at.

Would I love a 5th Park, most defiantly, would a 5th park help lower crowd levels yes for awhile, will more people come because there is a 5th park, sure the once and a lifers will have another reason to become a twice or three time in the lifers. You can not blame hotel rooms for crowd levels. If anything we should be blaming Disneys marketing team for doing to good of a Job in making people feel like they need to bring there kids to Disney to be "good parents" or making International guests want to spend alot more money than us Domestics do to visit the US for two weeks and hit Disney and Universal. The number of rooms is just a scapegoat.

I largely agree with this - but it can swing too far the other way as Disney doesn't want people to go and have a terrible time due to the crowds and then come home and tell their friends not to bother

So the goal is for them to have the parks be as crowded as possible but still enable people to enjoy their time and go home and tell their friends they need to go ... things like FP+ and EMH are part of that, but I still think they don't want to push their luck too far

Fearful of some of the early reaction to Toy Story Land for example - long lines in queues with no cover is not going to make people happy

 

[disneysteve]

queues with no cover

Whose brilliant idea was that? Did they forget where they were?

I’m willing to bet that doesn’t last a year before covers are added.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Whose brilliant idea was that? Did they forget where they were?

I’m willing to bet that doesn’t last a year before covers are added.

Yeah, I don’t get it. Maybe they though then there would be enough shade from the plant life or something but not ideal

Definitely think they need to put something up - saw some reports that even just in previews they could tell the CMs working the platform for SDD were suffering

 

[CampbellzSoup]

1 more gate is definitely needed.

A park for each weekday writes itself in marketing.

 

[rteetz]

1 more gate is definitely needed.

A park for each weekday writes itself in marketing.

People don’t have enough time for vacation days though. Magic Kingdom is a multi day park as well. Many spend 2-3 days there alone. Add in if people want to do water parks, and they’d have to spend two weeks on property to get what they want done.

 

[hertamaniac]

People don’t have enough time for vacation days though. Magic Kingdom is a multi day park as well. Many spend 2-3 days there alone. Add in if people want to do water parks, and they’d have to spend two weeks on property to get what they want done.

I really didn't think about the vacation time aspect; that's a good point.

I could also see that having another gate could help level the crowds as vacationers would need to prioritize which park appeals to them/family for their limited time. I've heard that old phrase, "dilution is the solution", but not sure I agree with it in this case.

 

[disneysteve]

they’d have to spend two weeks on property to get what they want done.

Is there a problem with that?