Thoughts on Lowball Offer

[deedubb]

In their defense after sending them an email when I could not log in that's when she told me the reason I was locked out was because of all the low offers (two!). She then unlocked it and I was able to log in again.

I'm not at all mad or annoyed with sellers asking a high price. It's not only their right but I also think it's the smart move. Start high and come down if your price isn't met. What I'm so damn annoyed with is Realtors interference and trying to make people people who want to make low offers feel like it's not OK.

Also to deny the fact that we are heading for a recession is not just stupid but possibly negligent. I believe by the definition of the word we are already in a recession. Let's just hope it's mild and we recover soon.

"The novel coronavirus has spurred what will likely be the worst recession in generations as the U.S. economy grinds to a halt and millions lose their jobs.
100%
Chance of Recession Within 12 Months
Bloomberg Economics created a model last year to determine America’s recession odds. The chance of a recession now stands at 100%, confirming an end to the nation’s longest-running expansion." From Bloomberg


"The global economy will contract the most since World War II this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing incomes and sending millions of people into poverty in emerging and developing nations, the World Bank said.

Global gross domestic product will probably shrink 5.2 per cent in 2020, the Washington-based development organization said in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report Monday."

The US is officially in a recession as of today.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

What I'm finding surprising is Fidelity prices. They always seem a lot lower, but (at least with my filters) I'm not seeing any incredible deals there either.

 

[RoseGold]

I saw the BLT I want, and prices are changing so fast that I'm not even sure what a low ball offer is anymore. Been too long since BLT was on the ROFR...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

In their defense after sending them an email when I could not log in that's when she told me the reason I was locked out was because of all the low offers (two!). She then unlocked it and I was able to log in again.

I'm not at all mad or annoyed with sellers asking a high price. It's not only their right but I also think it's the smart move. Start high and come down if your price isn't met. What I'm so damn annoyed with is Realtors interference and trying to make people people who want to make low offers feel like it's not OK.

Also to deny the fact that we are heading for a recession is not just stupid but possibly negligent. I believe by the definition of the word we are already in a recession. Let's just hope it's mild and we recover soon.

"The novel coronavirus has spurred what will likely be the worst recession in generations as the U.S. economy grinds to a halt and millions lose their jobs.
100%
Chance of Recession Within 12 Months
Bloomberg Economics created a model last year to determine America’s recession odds. The chance of a recession now stands at 100%, confirming an end to the nation’s longest-running expansion." From Bloomberg


"The global economy will contract the most since World War II this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing incomes and sending millions of people into poverty in emerging and developing nations, the World Bank said.

Global gross domestic product will probably shrink 5.2 per cent in 2020, the Washington-based development organization said in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report Monday."

Yes, but there's a lot of stimulous out there that doesn't seem to have been factored in as well as it should have. And these are the same analysts that were shocked at the employment numbers last week.....when everything had been opening up country wide.

This is all so different and doesn't seem to fit with any of the regular models they've relied upon for decades.

Anyway, contracts still seem to be in demand and that will keep prices higher other than the oddball one here and there. At least for the moment. The rest is semantics because even in recessions there are people that don't need to sell and just want to sell.

 

[FinnFogg]

Add me to the club...I just put in an offer significantly under asking. Frankly, it’s what I’m willing to pay for it, so I don’t feel too, too bad. It’s for a non-WDW resort, completely stripped until 2022, has sky high maintenance fees and expires in 2042. It would be a “nice to have”, but that’s about it. Fun to be back in the game though!!

 

[Cowgirl_Jessie]

Add me to the club...I just put in an offer significantly under asking. Frankly, it’s what I’m willing to pay for it, so I don’t feel too, too bad. It’s for a non-WDW resort, completely stripped until 2022, has sky high maintenance fees and expires in 2042. It would be a “nice to have”, but that’s about it. Fun to be back in the game though!! ☺

Was it HHI? Good luck! I’m watching for the right contract there. Also still hoping direct sales opens up to do a price comparison on 100 points. Thinking there may be a special discount.

 

[Michelle Sinnott]

I haven’t been looking at any prices since I just put my first offer in on the 1st of June. Price have really went up since the end of may. Guess I am glad I got in before the prices started going back up. Hopefully prices will go back down again looking for another small add on. Been working a ton of OT and I canceled my sandals vacation and have about 4 grand coming back.

 

[RachStu]

I’m surprised that prices are going up given the restrictions that have been brought in, the uncertainty of being able to book next year due to the increased points in circulation and the numbers of infections that are present in Florida. Recent news has made me pleased that we backed out of our Poly contract. I think it’s going to be quite a few years until things return to normal, especially for international travellers like us.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I just got locked out of the DVC Sales website after sending two low offers. Apparently the sellers find low offers offensive. "We are in this business to sell memberships, but we find that extremely low offers can create problems with our sellers.". What really angers me is I bought my first bay lake contract with them last year.

We are on the cusp of what almost every economist predicts will be a recession. The debate is not if but how bad the recession will be. The fact a lot of us are not willing to pay top dollar for what is a luxury purchase shouldn't offend anyone. It really does feel like these realtors are totally ignoring facts while claiming prices are going to go up. I could be wrong in fact a large part of me hopes my 225 point Bay lake contract will rise in value but it's my opinion it is going to go down with every other DVC price.

It's really hard to keep respect for the profession when so many of these realtors actively try to stop you from presenting offers to sellers. At the very best it's my opinion the vast majority suffer from a huge case of cognitive dissonance as we are heading into a recession and they still believe prices will continue to go up.

I made an offer a few weeks ago with this broker and it was low, but a start. I had a rejection in my inbox in a minute. I got an attitude from the sale rep when I emailed to start a conversation regarding negotiation. I have worked with most larger brokers and several smaller brokers buying and selling contracts. I was shocked by the attitude. I was in high end sales most of my career and that is not the way to start negotiations!

 

[yaawgmoth]

I have purchased contracts at the price I am willing to pay. My most recent was SSR for $100 or less. I bid on several contracts and then one said yes..
Its what you can afford, and in that, what they want to sell it for.

 

[heynowirv]

My question is are most people here looking for a fair price or just fishing for a contract?

 

[Noah_t]

I’m surprised that prices are going up given the restrictions that have been brought in, the uncertainty of being able to book next year due to the increased points in circulation and the numbers of infections that are present in Florida. Recent news has made me pleased that we backed out of our Poly contract. I think it’s going to be quite a few years until things return to normal, especially for international travellers like us.

I'm not sure what data you are looking at but watching the ROFR thread it seems clear to me prices are no doubt going down.

My question is are most people here looking for a fair price or just fishing for a contract?

Truth be told I probably am fishing a little bit. The hunt is so much fun!!

 

[RachStu]

I'm not sure what data you are looking at but watching the ROFR thread it seems clear to me prices are no doubt going down

I was replying to the comment directly above mine. I haven’t noticed it myself

 

[E2ME2]

I was replying to the comment directly above mine. I haven’t noticed it myself

It looks to me like List Prices have increased slightly in the last week.
That's strictly observational, based on the few sites I check, but maybe the lowball window has closed for a while? Will be interesting to see if DVC re-invokes ROFR in June...
may have missed my WOO for more addonitis points this year.
ET

 

[becauseimnew]

My question is are most people here looking for a fair price or just fishing for a contract?

I’ve been looking for a fair price, when I find a contract that meets our needs the first thing I do is go back to the first page of ROFR, then I’ll check several other sites to see what they have similar contracts listed.
We put in an offer on a fairly priced but they got full asking price.

But we have noticed that listing prices have increased and have decided to wait and possibly buy direct, this will be our first contract.

 

[lovethesun12]

My question is are most people here looking for a fair price or just fishing for a contract?

It depends on what you consider fair. I'm looking for a fair price but with current travel restrictions, uncertainty of how covid-19 will affect numbers (and cash prices eventually when Disney reopens), rental market, etc etc a price that I think is fair are some of the lowball offers people are getting.

I haven't offered in weeks though because it doesn't seem people are getting those anymore. I'm fine with the current high prices, as long as everything is back to normal. Until then I'm just here waiting it out to see what happens.

 

[CastAStone]

It looks to me like List Prices have increased slightly in the last week.
That's strictly observational, based on the few sites I check, but maybe the lowball window has closed for a while? Will be interesting to see if DVC re-invokes ROFR in June...
may have missed my WOO for more addonitis points this year.
ET

Maybe...I would be surprised if the underlying economic factors don't eventually move them down again late this year. There's more reasons for optimism than there was maybe 6 weeks ago but man it's hard to imagine Marriott or Delta or Cracker Barrel or even like a Massage Envy or an opthomologist getting back to anything close to 100% of their pre-covid business this year, and that's going to have direct impacts on both their blue collar and white collar employees as well as knock on effects on the economy writ large.

But it may not impact prices much until the bill is due.

 

[FinnFogg]

It depends on what you consider fair. I'm looking for a fair price but with current travel restrictions, uncertainty of how covid-19 will affect numbers (and cash prices eventually when Disney reopens), rental market, etc etc a price that I think is fair are some of the lowball offers people are getting.

I agree with this completely. There are new realities that will impact things, IMO, for at least the next 24-36 months. I am happy to buy, with these considerations factored in. If the Vendors have different expectations, then they can hold out for a better offer.

 

[heynowirv]

It looks to me like List Prices have increased slightly in the last week.
That's strictly observational, based on the few sites I check, but maybe the lowball window has closed for a while? Will be interesting to see if DVC re-invokes ROFR in June...
may have missed my WOO for more addonitis points this year.
ET

I'm hoping they don't start taking contracts back till on lets say the middle of July.

 

[rookie1255]

Looks like average time from accepted offer to points in account is about 90 days from seeing other people's timelines. Seems like a long time to have a deposit tied up. House closings don't even take 90 days.