A Fireside Chat on EARNING, BURNING and HOARDING...
This seems to be a topic of interest to a lot of people lately in light of a lot of doom and gloom of 2019 that brought us clawbacks and shutdowns galore! I'm going to attempt to organize some thoughts around this subject that hopefully will be helpful to a lot of you here and also spark some discussion (I'd love to hear from you all on this topic too!!)
Should I participate in [insert name here] advanced strategy (a.k.a. loophole)?
- First off...I prefer to call them "advanced strategies" instead of loopholes. I don't really like the undertones that come with the word loophole!
- "Advanced Strategies" are a part of the churning game, and we are always looking for new ways to bolster our points earning potential!
- Even back in the days before 5/24, churners would find and implement advanced strategies that allowed them to earn more points than appeared possible on the surface.
It is very important that you understand the risks of implementing any advanced strategy. Card issuers and rewards programs have been known to take the following actions in response to this: closing specific cards that were opened as a result of the strategy; closing ALL cards with that issuer; clawing back points (even if that leaves you with a negative balance); denying bonus points or future card bonuses; shutting off the ability to generate support links; cancelling award travel (flights/hotels/etc) booked using points or methods deemed illegitimate.
This sounds super scary...maybe I should avoid all Advanced Strategies???
- Well...first off...yeah, maybe you should...but that could severely limit your ability to earn enough points to travel for free all the time.
- The banks, rewards programs and card issuers will continue to find ways to restrict the ability to earn multiple SUBs. This is inevitable! Churners are not profitable...so if you aren't willing to push the envelope, you're going to find that your churning results are closer to that of a non-churner vs. a hardcore churner.
So it all comes down to risk vs. reward and knowing your risk tolerance. Each issuer and program is different as well...
- AMERICAN EXPRESS: notably the most hardcore when it comes to taking adverse action against churners retroactively. Shutdowns are more rare with them, but claw-backs are their favorite. And they will put you on a list as a "gamer"...and it's hard to get off that list!
- CHASE: most commonly noted as the issuer that will shut you down...but it's pretty easy to avoid this fate. Don't get cards too fast, don't attempt to get cards if you're well over 5/24, don't apply for multiple cards with them on the same day... Chase is also known for rarely (never?) clawing back points and they frequently have issued warnings in the past to people who have done something that they feel was an abuse of their programs.
- AMERICAN AIRLINES: the new sheriff in town who will shutdown your miles, your hopes, and your dreams... enough said there...
So you've decided to implement one of the numerous advanced strategies...what should I be thinking about now?
- If you're playing in a fairly safe space...(i.e. you did 1 MDD)...don't panic. As the saying goes: "Act like you've been there before!"
- Hoarding points earned in a legitimate fashion brings with it the risks of devaluation but the risks of losing your points to a claw-back are far less and if you have a specific redemption in mind, then by all means hoard away until you get there!
- That said...IF you are in deep, and you are PRINTING points faster than you can use them using some of our favorite advanced strategies...you gotta do something about it!
- Hoarding points earned in this fashion is NOT a good plan! First off, your large points balance could put a clear target on your account when they come for the "abusers"... Secondly, as long as said strategy continues, you can replace the points you have today in a mere number of months! So stop looking for the optimal redemption, stop waiting for the perfect trip to pop up...find a way to convert those points into something of value in your pocket and just do it!
- I'm not saying you should cash out to $0 every month, but don't be the person who gets shutdown with 2 million miles and you never used a single one of them!
- If you're earning more points than you can use, and you don't see a clear path on how to cash them out or convert them to some cash-like value, it might be time to move in a different direction and diversify your points.
So should I "Earn and Burn" like everybody says?
Oh yes, the old r/churning mantra "Earn and Burn"... look, don't let ANYBODY (even me) tell you what you should or should not do with your points!!
I had this crazy stupid goal of having a million URs last year...and so I went for it... and in retrospect it was stupid because I should've been cashing them out...BUT it made me happy to see it once and I don't regret it!
I have a stash of over a million Marriott points, I attempt to keep my Southwest stash above 500k at all times: I'm certainly not earning and burning those currencies.
- Marriott is my safety stash, I totally acknowledge it will be devalued over time and I'm ok with that - I like knowing that in any circumstance (random stop-over trip, long weekend trip, wedding hotel needed, unfortunate death of a loved one, etc.) that I can get a convenient free hotel! That is what it's there for and it serves me well! I never earned those points hoping for some aspirational safari in the jungles of Africa...they are doing exactly what I want them to do!
- Southwest is my ticket to all of my travel dreams! They fly exactly where I want to go, non-stop! Have I lost some value over the years with devaluations...sure! But keeping a significant stash of SW points ensures that I will have MANY years of free flights at my disposal even if all of my SW points earning strategies dry up!
- Some of you might be chasing something aspirational...maybe an awesome trip to Hawaii! Well, you aren't going to earn all of those points overnight... so you're going to have to hoard some until you get there...and that's ok!!
So there are two examples of where my points strategy flies in the face of "earn and burn" and a third strategy where hoarding might be required. But to my earlier comment, if you are hoarding points that you are earning using one of the more dangerous "advanced strategies" you might be playing with fire...
So what does this all mean @SouthFayetteFan?? You know what...I truthfully don't know!
These are just the ramblings of a crazy churner guy who has been at this game for almost 7 years...
What I can tell you is that if you are in this game deep enough to implement an "advanced strategy" then you better be able to think for yourself!!
Nobody here can tell you if "you're safe"... Nobody here can tell you if you should pull the trigger on that next card. They can tell you what THEY did...they can tell you WHY they did it... but they can't tell YOU what YOU should do! So earn and burn my friends...or earn and hoard...do whatever you think is best! But understand your risks, understand your goals, and make logical decisions!
I think this could be an awesome discussion point for our thread in the next few days. I'd really love to hear what others think on this topic. How are you earning, burning and hoarding in this strange churning world we operate in here in 2020...
I'll also mention as a side note that the days of openly bragging of your "advanced strategy conquests" on the internet should probably be over...those types of comments are probably best left to DISchurners and other more private settings.
Thanks in advance to anybody willing to share some thoughts on this important topic!!