Crowd Calendar Comparison

[sam1998]

I always swore by easywdw but he stopped doing them, so for my June 2017 trip I used Kenny the Pirate and it went great. I do believe that skipping parks with EMH is a plus.

 

[Davey Jones II]

That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. But not everyone buys into it. I think they have the same value as using a Magic 8 ball or flipping a coin...at best. They're snake oil, with an incredibly deceptive name.

He gave good reasons for his opinions. You just keep repeating the same thing, without anything to back up your opinion.

 

[Dallas_Lady]

Serious question. Does anyone on here really know what a '6' means? How about a '3'? No? Define an '8' for me. Is your definition of a '7' the exact same as Touring Plan's?

Or, are you someone that calls it 'busy' when you have to wait 45 minutes to ride Pooh at 1 o'clock in the afternoon, when you could have waited until 10 o'clock at night and rode it with a 3 minute wait.

Touring Plans is not perfect, but they do have statistical data to back up their information., That's something none of us have. A single day cannot be considered in a vacuum. It has to be compared against all other days to have meaning. May 10th might seem 'crazy busy' to someone that is there, but compared to New Years Eve, it's a walk in the park. Likewise, November 3, 2012 and November 3, 2018 but may both be 5's. But, that doesn't mean the crowds are the same. The ratings have been adjusted over time where a 7 now does not mean the same thing as a 7 did 8-10 years ago did.

And, if Disney staffs based on projected crowd levels (which they do), then the average customer may not even really notice the difference between the 4 & the 6.

Like Touring Plans, Kenny the Pirate is not perfect. But, he is very consistent with several themes that are supported by historical evidence. And, much like touring plans, when Kenny has a day shaded 'Green', that does not mean that the park will be empty. It means that it's the best available option for that date. A 'Green' day in Christmas Week is going to be significantly busier than a 'Red' day in the middle of September. Some of Kenny's general themes are:

• Crowds are heavier on Extra Magic Hour days (especially nighttime)
• MK crowds on Party Days are significantly smaller than non-party days (people want to see the fireworks)
• The day after EMH in a park is usually less crowded (everyone was just there the night before)
• etc, etc, etc.

So, yes, the crowd calendars have value. They are not perfect and should not be expected to be foolproof. But, they do tell a story supported by historical evidence.

Ultimately, both ends of the crowd calendar spectrum are wrong. Those who rely too heavily on them don't take time to understand them or build a good plan around the projections. Those that totally dismiss them are expecting them to be perfect and can't see the forest for the trees. There is value there, especially for the inexperienced tourist.

Great answer!

 

[Klayfish]

He gave good reasons for his opinions. You just repeating the same thing, without anything to back up your opinion.

Are you looking for reasons why I think they're of no value?

First, even the name itself is highly deceptive, not sure if that's on purpose on not. People post questions about a crowd calendar, wondering how crowded a park is and how accurate the crowd calendars are. They then rely on these crowd calendars and even avoid certain parks simply because they think a park will be crowded. However, in the fine print, they even say they don't actually predict crowds. They try to predict wait times for a ride, which may or may not have anything to do with a crowd. To me, it's a bit of false advertising, especially for those who don't look at the fine print.

So even putting that aside, they look at historical wait times. Ride wait times are subject to so many variables that the ride time from 8 Thursdays ago at 3:25pm is utterly irrelevant to the wait time next Thursday, or the same Thursday in 2019. They can be effected by staffing, mechanical or guest issues causing the ride to stop, weather, or just random variations in people going for a ride. It also is effected by people adding and dropping FP+, which happens literally every second.

Put all that together, and my opinion is that they're completely useless.

 

[Ronald Brown]

There are many things that impact wait times, that's true. The things that are unpredictable (mechanical issues, guest issues, etc.) are just noise and may make the day to day prediction less reliable, but don't impact the expected wait time between two time period and which should (on average) be longer. Also, it seems to me when most people think about how crowded a park is, they are really thinking about wait times, fastpass availability and ADR availability. All of those things are related to crowd size (along with noise as noted). So, does TP provide a reliable and accurate estimate of the wait time for Space Mountain on a future date that you can count on being correct? Probably not. Do the site have enough data and good enough techniques and knowledge to provide a reliable estimate for when the park may be easier or harder to navigate for desired experiences? I'd say yes.

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

I wish EVERYONE would use Crowd Calendars. That way I would go when they say the parks are a 10. No one would be there

 

[WillowRain]

I used TP for my last 4 trips to WDW and DL. Disneyland In 2014, it was accurate during the week, and Saturday was a 7, ended up a 10. This was Dec 9th to 13th.

2016 we went the first week in June, pretty accurate.

WDW Jan 9-19 2018, Totally WRONG! No clue why. Had most under 4 days, and ended up at 8-10, every park, every day except the 18th.

Disneyland Memorial weekend, came in way under predictions. But again, their predictions are based on wait times, not actual crowd levels. So if everyone is hanging out in the walkways and not on the rides, their times are totally off. I hear KTP is the most reliable, as well as his character thing which I plan to use this time.

 

[FigmentSpark]

I used TP for my last 4 trips to WDW and DL. Disneyland In 2014, it was accurate during the week, and Saturday was a 7, ended up a 10. This was Dec 9th to 13th.

2016 we went the first week in June, pretty accurate.

WDW Jan 9-19 2018, Totally WRONG! No clue why. Had most under 4 days, and ended up at 8-10, every park, every day except the 18th.

Disneyland Memorial weekend, came in way under predictions. But again, their predictions are based on wait times, not actual crowd levels. So if everyone is hanging out in the walkways and not on the rides, their times are totally off. I hear KTP is the most reliable, as well as his character thing which I plan to use this time.

If I recall, there was some trouble with the predictions in the first part of this year. It had to do with Disney changing the staffing on lower days. There may have been lower crowds predicted, but they put fewer staff on, so the ride lines built up anyway. TP had to do adjustments.

In addition, there was speculation that people who'd cancelled their fall/hurricane trips were taking them in the winter. Not sure if that was true or not, though.

 

[toonaspie]

I would like to see crowd calendars like Touring Plans provide visual aides of the crowd levels. For example I wanna see a picture of what a crowd on Main Street looks like on a level 10 day vs a level 1 day (and all days inbetween). That way we can get a picture of what the crowd situation has the potential to actually be and judge for ourselves whether or not a certain level day is worth it.

 

[mamaofsix]

You know I never even saw my email. I am a subscriber and have my dates in the tracker. Is there an explanation anywhere within the website itself?[/QUOTE]

Sure - here's a link to the latest blog post when hours got changed. There is a link within the article to their August blog which lists their reasons for decreasing crowd expectations this fall on a month by month basis.

https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/09/01/wdw-cc-update-sep2018/

 

[FigmentSpark]

I would like to see crowd calendars like Touring Plans provide visual aides of the crowd levels. For example I wanna see a picture of what a crowd on Main Street looks like on a level 10 day vs a level 1 day (and all days inbetween). That way we can get a picture of what the crowd situation has the potential to actually be and judge for ourselves whether or not a certain level day is worth it.

Excellent idea. You should pass that on to Len and the team.

 

[MonaMN]

You know I never even saw my email. I am a subscriber and have my dates in the tracker. Is there an explanation anywhere within the website itself?

Sure - here's a link to the latest blog post when hours got changed. There is a link within the article to their August blog which lists their reasons for decreasing crowd expectations this fall on a month by month basis.

https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/09/01/wdw-cc-update-sep2018/[/QUOTE]

I don’t think I got this either - I wasn’t getting the updates on the numbers changing at all... so thanks!

 

[Delirium]

Are you looking for reasons why I think they're of no value?

First, even the name itself is highly deceptive, not sure if that's on purpose on not. People post questions about a crowd calendar, wondering how crowded a park is and how accurate the crowd calendars are. They then rely on these crowd calendars and even avoid certain parks simply because they think a park will be crowded. However, in the fine print, they even say they don't actually predict crowds. They try to predict wait times for a ride, which may or may not have anything to do with a crowd. To me, it's a bit of false advertising, especially for those who don't look at the fine print.

So even putting that aside, they look at historical wait times. Ride wait times are subject to so many variables that the ride time from 8 Thursdays ago at 3:25pm is utterly irrelevant to the wait time next Thursday, or the same Thursday in 2019. They can be effected by staffing, mechanical or guest issues causing the ride to stop, weather, or just random variations in people going for a ride. It also is effected by people adding and dropping FP+, which happens literally every second.

Put all that together, and my opinion is that they're completely useless.

When it's all said and done, with the possible exception of extreme weather, the #1 factor in wait times is how many people are in the park (i.e. how crowded it is). Again, they are not perfect. But, to totally dismiss them is, in my opinion, shortsighted.

Let me ask it this way. Do you believe in the concept that crowds in a specific park are a little lighter on the days following Evening Magic Hours? Don't try and assign a number to it. Just, agree or disagree with the general concept, which is all the people that stayed at MK until midnight last night are not going to be back at that same park at 9 o'clock the next morning.

If you agree with that concept, then you agree with one of the fundamental aspects of Kenny the Pirate's calendar. That is important information for someone new to Disney that may not understand that phenomenon.

 

[lambdabeta]

I just checked TP and they changed their numbers again for the week after Thanksgiving. @Pookie9922 you will be happy to hear that your 6 for EP on Friday is now a 4. They mostly downgraded numbers. You'll have to go to TP to look at the numbers since it is part of your subscription. I will keep checking to see if they change again but it is interesting that some of the numbers went down.

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

TP just updated crowd levels for our upcoming trip 9/6 - 9/16. Now every day is a 1 which is great news! But the sad part is a 1 in 2018 is equivalent to a 10 in 2008. Disney is just plain crowded but I can live with that.

 

[WillowRain]

All I know is the week we picked was because KTP has it at light blue, which is lowest crowds. It's like the only week during the year at this color!!! Fingers crossed.

 

[Pookie9922]

I just checked TP and they changed their numbers again for the week after Thanksgiving. @Pookie9922 you will be happy to hear that your 6 for EP on Friday is now a 4. They mostly downgraded numbers. You'll have to go to TP to look at the numbers since it is part of your subscription. I will keep checking to see if they change again but it is interesting that some of the numbers went down.

I saw that! That's the only park that was adjusted for my week that actually aligned with the day we'd be there, but it was the one I was concerned about!

 

[lambdabeta]

TP just updated crowd levels for our upcoming trip 9/6 - 9/16. Now every day is a 1 which is great news! But the sad part is a 1 in 2018 is equivalent to a 10 in 2008. Disney is just plain crowded but I can live with that.

LOL! You are right. A 1 today isn't as light a crowd as it used to be but it still beats a 10 today. I don't know how anyone can be in the parks when they are above a 7. I feel they are too crowded at a 5 or 6. I still try to plan my trips for low park numbers but I agree that Disney is now always crowded.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Given that the crowd calendars are based on historical data, and that they are trying hard to incorporate new data as well, I don`t understand those who seem to think that you might as well throw darts to pick your park for a given day. Even if they are not as accurate as they used to be, they are probably better than picking your park by random chance.

Agreed, to a point. I use them in picking what weeks to travel, giving me a RELATIVE sense of crowds between my various potential dates. Beyond that, at the finer resolutions of planning each day, I am not sure how useful they are -- and I've felt this way well before FP+, which I do think has made all such calendars less accurate.

For one thing, they shift predictions as time goes on -- which makes sense, as they get more data. However, often by the time they've updated them, my plans are pretty set with ADRs and then later FPs! It's not like I'm going to go back and change everything because they shift their predictions, am I? I wouldn't be able to get many of the ADRs and FPs -- so as a practical matter, not incredibly useful at the micro level of day-to-day planning IMO.

Serious question. Does anyone on here really know what a '6' means? How about a '3'? No? Define an '8' for me. Is your definition of a '7' the exact same as Touring Plan's?

No one needs to guess what their '6' means -- they tell you PRECISELY how much of a wait at various attractions that translates to. Just need to look it up.

 

[LA Poolboy]

Every day seems crowded at the Happiest Place on Earth. It just is. Go where you want to go and do whatever is available when you want. It will never be where we can just hop on whatever we want when we want. Go with a good attitude and enjoy the people who make up the crowds as much as possible. But then again, I have a good time just people watching as I am not much of a thrill rider.