Crowd Calendar Comparison

Also, re. the weeks in november. when i check resort availability (thinking of switching my resort) there basically is not much to choose from especially in a standard room category. most offerings are villas, preferred rooms, and most hotels offered are caribbean beach, or the ultimate grand floridian room. i feel like there is a disconnect. while i am trusting mostly of touring plans i would like an explanation of such drastic low crowd calendars the first weeks of november especially when you also compare it to room availability.
On-property room occupancy - especially when so many rooms are down - does not reflect crowds.
 
Also, re. the weeks in november. when i check resort availability (thinking of switching my resort) there basically is not much to choose from especially in a standard room category. most offerings are villas, preferred rooms, and most hotels offered are caribbean beach, or the ultimate grand floridian room. i feel like there is a disconnect. while i am trusting mostly of touring plans i would like an explanation of such drastic low crowd calendars the first weeks of november especially when you also compare it to room availability.
Do you have a touring plans subscription? If you do, you would have gotten an email when they reduced their numbers for November. At the bottom of the email, they post a link to a very in depth blog. The blog explains all of their reasoning and the science behind why they lowered their November numbers this year. When you read that, it makes perfect sense. I find a lot of touring plan subscribers don't read that explanation, they just read the numbers and are confused.
 
I have been using TP for trips in 2005, 2014,(too long a dry spell between trips there for me!) 2016, and 2017. I will use it again in 2019. The crowd calendar has been fairly accurate for us, as well as predicted wait times. We usually still pick parks based on our preference. When we make our personalized touring plans, we always factor in the "relaxed" walking mode. I have noticed that there is very little difference in predicted wait times on these plans from a crowd rated 1 to a crowd rated 4 when we are working on a touring plan. On the above four trips, wait times have been fairly accurate on the touring plans we created. We found we frequently had extra time by factoring in relaxed walking mode. I swear by these plans-they are scientific, and may not be 100% accurate, but they are close enough to make a difference in a relaxing vacation for us rather than a chaotic one.
 


I use Touring Plans for most of my trips and I find that they are generally accurate. In reality, though, I just use them as a suggestion and plan accordingly (dining, FP). I have had instances where the "best park" changes but as long as I have FP for the rides I want and get to the parks early, I find it's not an issue. As one of the PP said, it seems like WDW is always busy nowadays. You kinda just have to roll with it.

I use TP as well. I am not looking for a written in stone prediction, however I like a guide when I plan our park days and meals. If the park is busy, and I generally expect busy, so be it.

Do you have a touring plans subscription? If you do, you would have gotten an email when they reduced their numbers for November. At the bottom of the email, they post a link to a very in depth blog. The blog explains all of their reasoning and the science behind why they lowered their November numbers this year. When you read that, it makes perfect sense. I find a lot of touring plan subscribers don't read that explanation, they just read the numbers and are confused.

You know I never even saw my email. I am a subscriber and have my dates in the tracker. Is there an explanation anywhere within the website itself?
 


The only thing I can attribute to is that it's a Friday and MK is a party night.

People really avoid party nights at MK because it cuts the day short and you can't watch the fireworks.

I favor Touring Plans crowd calendar partly due to my experiences, but largely because I agree with their methodology. They measure many pieces of data, and have years worth of data. They have multiples statisticians working on their predictions. They use engineering methods which I favor (as an engineer) as opposed to most crowd calendars that largely trust anecdotal experiences.

However, crowds vary a lot. Its impossible to be super accurate when there is a lot variation. So no crowd calendar will ever be super accurate. Plus touring plans changes their crowd calendars as they get more data. So even if Epcot is a 6 now, doesn't mean it will still be a 6 by the time you travel. My trip is in two weeks and in the past half year the predicted crowds have changed a couple of times. Having a good touring plan is way more important that which park.

My advise - try to avoid crowds if you can, but don't rework a schedule for one high crowd day if everything else works. I personally am going to Magic Kingdom on my last vacation day so I can watch Happily Ever After even though Touring Plan says it will be the most busy.
 
Crowd calendars/touring plans = businesses happy to take your money.

You can get the same analysis on the internet and on this board for free.

I also find that the reasons that drive some parks to have crowded days are the very reason I WANT to be at the park that day, too. I can see what is going on the parks - special events, park hours, EMH's, etc - on the WDW website. So - I just plan my trip according to the things I what to do and when - and just deal with the crowds that face me.
 
I think the other thing to consider is that you can have a good day with a good plan regardless of what the predicted crowd level is for any one park. Of course there are times where things are going to be extremely hectic (e.g. holidays), but the rest of the year things are basically a steady level of busy unless you happen upon a freak slow day. Rainy weather, colder days than expected, etc. can change things. Better to have a plan that makes good use of fastpasses, rope drop, etc. than worry about which park on which day. I also agree that avoiding the park with EMH unless you are going to get up early enough/stay up late enough to take advantage of them and/or have park hoppers to head to a different park during the busiest part of the day is good advice.
 
I think with FP+ it's much harder for them to predict crowd levels or wait times. That's why Josh at EasyWDW stopped doing predictions. Add in Disney changing park hours a few weeks before and it's a hot mess trying to predict anything.

We are there during Jersey Week and I got the email with the 1-2's for crowd levels. I'm just not buying it. I'm expecting heavy crowds and going in with that game plan. If it's slow it'll just be a bonus.
 
The last (only) time I used TPs very closely was 2009. Their plans were spot on, but that was the only year I took two trips, and tried to plan in a third before my AP expired.
But, something that has stuck with me over the years is that it said explicitly on their website that having a good touring plan is 5 times more important than which park which day, or projected crowd levels.
Even without TPs, this was essentially true, and I typically just look at crowd calendars to give me SOME template for our plans.

But, I just had to swap DHS and MK days, because when I made my ADRs Toy Story Land wasn't open yet, so there's was nothing anything in the interwebs (that I saw anyway) that predicted how difficult it would be to get a FP for SDD. I'm essentially giving up a BOG ADR, and 50s Prime Time (it's odd that it's so difficult to replace that second one, but whatever).
I don't expect the crowds to be drastically different due to the change, and it doesn't matter anyway, because I would rather have a SDD FP than an ADR at BOG or a "top pick" day at the Magic Kingdom.

P.S TPs is definitely a better option than me using my prior knowledge from past trips to attempt to navigate the new attractions. The fact is that at least they are still pulling current data, which is better than most people have floating around in their brains.
 
I think with FP+ it's much harder for them to predict crowd levels or wait times. That's why Josh at EasyWDW stopped doing predictions. Add in Disney changing park hours a few weeks before and it's a hot mess trying to predict anything.

We are there during Jersey Week and I got the email with the 1-2's for crowd levels. I'm just not buying it. I'm expecting heavy crowds and going in with that game plan. If it's slow it'll just be a bonus.
I agree with you. I got the same thing for my trip after Thanksgiving. They gave the same reason but I seem to remember WDW having the same discounts last year they have this year and there being the same room availability. I looked at the historical data and the numbers were much higher last year. As far as summer being lower crowds that has been a trend for the last few years, so I still don't understand the really low numbers. I plan on doing the same thing you are. I am expecting higher wait times than predicted and if TP is correct I will be ecstatic. :cheer2:
 
I agree with you. I got the same thing for my trip after Thanksgiving. They gave the same reason but I seem to remember WDW having the same discounts last year they have this year and there being the same room availability. I looked at the historical data and the numbers were much higher last year. As far as summer being lower crowds that has been a trend for the last few years, so I still don't understand the really low numbers. I plan on doing the same thing you are. I am expecting higher wait times than predicted and if TP is correct I will be ecstatic. :cheer2:

I think when park hours change they’ll up the crowd levels. Either way we know going in with a good plan is the most important part.
 
Given that the crowd calendars are based on historical data, and that they are trying hard to incorporate new data as well, I don`t understand those who seem to think that you might as well throw darts to pick your park for a given day. Even if they are not as accurate as they used to be, they are probably better than picking your park by random chance.
 
I have been using TP for trips in 2005, 2014,(too long a dry spell between trips there for me!) 2016, and 2017. I will use it again in 2019. The crowd calendar has been fairly accurate for us, as well as predicted wait times. We usually still pick parks based on our preference. When we make our personalized touring plans, we always factor in the "relaxed" walking mode. I have noticed that there is very little difference in predicted wait times on these plans from a crowd rated 1 to a crowd rated 4 when we are working on a touring plan. On the above four trips, wait times have been fairly accurate on the touring plans we created. We found we frequently had extra time by factoring in relaxed walking mode. I swear by these plans-they are scientific, and may not be 100% accurate, but they are close enough to make a difference in a relaxing vacation for us rather than a chaotic one.

This is pretty much precisely how we're going to use TP for our trip in Feb, so it is awesome to read this!
 
Use them as a guide only. We've found Touring Plans to be 100% wrong on occasions with their prediction and then actual after the fact (not sure if they still do actuals because we haven't used them in years now).
 
Serious question. Does anyone on here really know what a '6' means? How about a '3'? No? Define an '8' for me. Is your definition of a '7' the exact same as Touring Plan's?

Or, are you someone that calls it 'busy' when you have to wait 45 minutes to ride Pooh at 1 o'clock in the afternoon, when you could have waited until 10 o'clock at night and rode it with a 3 minute wait.

Touring Plans is not perfect, but they do have statistical data to back up their information., That's something none of us have. A single day cannot be considered in a vacuum. It has to be compared against all other days to have meaning. May 10th might seem 'crazy busy' to someone that is there, but compared to New Years Eve, it's a walk in the park. Likewise, November 3, 2012 and November 3, 2018 but may both be 5's. But, that doesn't mean the crowds are the same. The ratings have been adjusted over time where a 7 now does not mean the same thing as a 7 did 8-10 years ago did.

And, if Disney staffs based on projected crowd levels (which they do), then the average customer may not even really notice the difference between the 4 & the 6.

Like Touring Plans, Kenny the Pirate is not perfect. But, he is very consistent with several themes that are supported by historical evidence. And, much like touring plans, when Kenny has a day shaded 'Green', that does not mean that the park will be empty. It means that it's the best available option for that date. A 'Green' day in Christmas Week is going to be significantly busier than a 'Red' day in the middle of September. Some of Kenny's general themes are:
  • Crowds are heavier on Extra Magic Hour days (especially nighttime)
  • MK crowds on Party Days are significantly smaller than non-party days (people want to see the fireworks)
  • The day after EMH in a park is usually less crowded (everyone was just there the night before)
  • etc, etc, etc.
So, yes, the crowd calendars have value. They are not perfect and should not be expected to be foolproof. But, they do tell a story supported by historical evidence.

Ultimately, both ends of the crowd calendar spectrum are wrong. Those who rely too heavily on them don't take time to understand them or build a good plan around the projections. Those that totally dismiss them are expecting them to be perfect and can't see the forest for the trees. There is value there, especially for the inexperienced tourist.
 
Serious question. Does anyone on here really know what a '6' means? How about a '3'? No? Define an '8' for me. Is your definition of a '7' the exact same as Touring Plan's?

Or, are you someone that calls it 'busy' when you have to wait 45 minutes to ride Pooh at 1 o'clock in the afternoon, when you could have waited until 10 o'clock at night and rode it with a 3 minute wait.

Touring Plans is not perfect, but they do have statistical data to back up their information., That's something none of us have. A single day cannot be considered in a vacuum. It has to be compared against all other days to have meaning. May 10th might seem 'crazy busy' to someone that is there, but compared to New Years Eve, it's a walk in the park. Likewise, November 3, 2012 and November 3, 2018 but may both be 5's. But, that doesn't mean the crowds are the same. The ratings have been adjusted over time where a 7 now does not mean the same thing as a 7 did 8-10 years ago did.

And, if Disney staffs based on projected crowd levels (which they do), then the average customer may not even really notice the difference between the 4 & the 6.

Like Touring Plans, Kenny the Pirate is not perfect. But, he is very consistent with several themes that are supported by historical evidence. And, much like touring plans, when Kenny has a day shaded 'Green', that does not mean that the park will be empty. It means that it's the best available option for that date. A 'Green' day in Christmas Week is going to be significantly busier than a 'Red' day in the middle of September. Some of Kenny's general themes are:
  • Crowds are heavier on Extra Magic Hour days (especially nighttime)
  • MK crowds on Party Days are significantly smaller than non-party days (people want to see the fireworks)
  • The day after EMH in a park is usually less crowded (everyone was just there the night before)
  • etc, etc, etc.
So, yes, the crowd calendars have value. They are not perfect and should not be expected to be foolproof. But, they do tell a story supported by historical evidence.

Ultimately, both ends of the crowd calendar spectrum are wrong. Those who rely too heavily on them don't take time to understand them or build a good plan around the projections. Those that totally dismiss them are expecting them to be perfect and can't see the forest for the trees. There is value there, especially for the inexperienced tourist.

That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. But not everyone buys into it. I think they have the same value as using a Magic 8 ball or flipping a coin...at best. They're snake oil, with an incredibly deceptive name.
 
I think some people are losing the point of the OP. They didn't understand why the numbers on TP's were so high for EP but not other parks and why it doesn't mesh with the other main calendar. I get it.

Let me try and answer the question. First as PP's have said KtP has a specific formula that has nothing to do with how long of a wait certain rides will be. He sticks to that and that is where his recommendations come from. He never recommends a park with EMH, certain days MK and other parks tend to be crowded and when it is party season MK will always be more crowded on non party days vs party days. It is simple and easy to follow advise. I don't agree with all of it but it is easy to follow.
TP's on the other hand is not doing an actual crowd calendar. They are giving you a calendar based on certain rides wait times in each park, each day. They do this by having people watch lines and count the number of people exiting. I find their actual data very interesting. They are the ones that reported Disney was scaling back ride capacity last year at times when the parks weren't traditionally very crowded. Not to say they are more accurate or not is subjective. Their information is data driven with numbers, KtP's is driven with trends.
The next thing to address is what the numbers mean. Ktp does tell what he thinks the overall crowds will be for the day and then recommends parks. So he is telling you whether or not it will be very crowded when he gives you his best to worst park. Just look at the date. TP last year readjusted their numbers. I find them very interesting when a 1 can be anywhere from a 60-105 min wait at 7DMT to 15-40 min wait at PoC. I don't think waiting an hour for a popular rides means the park is not crowded. TP has obviously adjusted it's numbers to reflect the fact that there are no more slow times at WDW. I also find the numbers they give to have large swings in them. You will also find like a PP said the difference between a 1 and a 5 are not that big. 7DMT 100-150 and PoC 45-60 at a 5. I don't know how many people make a wait an extra 30 mins but I know TP does. It seems to me the numbers in TP are adjusted to higher crowd levels but are also adjusted closer together. What I mean is a 1 is not a walk on the big rides but a 5 is not huge crowds. I think it was to keep it at a 10 scale.

I know some people take this all as voodoo but there is science behind what TP does and history behind what KtP does. You take it for what it is worth. I found last year that TP was hit or miss on their data. I don't know if Disney is expecting lower crowds this fall or not because I don't see the extra discounts over last year. They seem the same to me. I don't know why EP is a 6 for that Friday and other parks are so low and yes I did read TP's explanation. I am going to the parks with a touring plan and a strategy that I hope will work whether the park is a 1 or a 6. I hope this helps the OP or anyone else. It is just my observations.
 

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