Crowd Calendar Comparison

Agreed, to a point. I use them in picking what weeks to travel, giving me a RELATIVE sense of crowds between my various potential dates. Beyond that, at the finer resolutions of planning each day, I am not sure how useful they are -- and I've felt this way well before FP+, which I do think has made all such calendars less accurate.

For one thing, they shift predictions as time goes on -- which makes sense, as they get more data. However, often by the time they've updated them, my plans are pretty set with ADRs and then later FPs! It's not like I'm going to go back and change everything because they shift their predictions, am I? I wouldn't be able to get many of the ADRs and FPs -- so as a practical matter, not incredibly useful at the micro level of day-to-day planning IMO.



No one needs to guess what their '6' means -- they tell you PRECISELY how much of a wait at various attractions that translates to. Just need to look it up.
I interpreted what Davey J II was saying differently, I thought he was saying that everyone might have a different idea of what a 3 is or a 6 is, etc.. but touring plans has defined what their values mean so it is standardized and can give one an idea of relative crowd levels.
 
Are you looking for reasons why I think they're of no value?

First, even the name itself is highly deceptive, not sure if that's on purpose on not. People post questions about a crowd calendar, wondering how crowded a park is and how accurate the crowd calendars are. They then rely on these crowd calendars and even avoid certain parks simply because they think a park will be crowded. However, in the fine print, they even say they don't actually predict crowds. They try to predict wait times for a ride, which may or may not have anything to do with a crowd. To me, it's a bit of false advertising, especially for those who don't look at the fine print.

So even putting that aside, they look at historical wait times. Ride wait times are subject to so many variables that the ride time from 8 Thursdays ago at 3:25pm is utterly irrelevant to the wait time next Thursday, or the same Thursday in 2019. They can be effected by staffing, mechanical or guest issues causing the ride to stop, weather, or just random variations in people going for a ride. It also is effected by people adding and dropping FP+, which happens literally every second.

Put all that together, and my opinion is that they're completely useless.

Actually, while they are not perfect, they have a value to many people. Perhaps what you look for in terms of park planning does not apply, but for me, they are very useful, and dismissing them out of hand simply discredits your reasoning and your feedback.

I use them for early planning. I knwo they are not foolproof, however since I am not either, I am happy to trust using them as a guideline for the bones of my touring plan. My family is heavily invested in the dining aspect of Disney and every one of us has a special request I try to honor. I book 180 days out, so I need a little assistance in order to begin sorting out a loose park day plan in order to book these ADR's. Because this matters to us, I use TP as my go to planning tool. I am not expecting accuracy levels at 100%, and on a few occasions we ahve been a bit shocked at the differences in crowds feel, but all in all we have been pretty on point with how we chose our parks.

So. My experience is vastly different than yours, however I read a lot of your posts, so I know your family tours in a very different manner than my family does, and our priorities do not mirror yours. I woudl no more suggest that your strategy is useless. Sharing how you plan your trips is a valuable resource to those who want to plan in a similar manner. How I use planning tools may benefit someone who likes an outline in the way I do.
 
TP just updated crowd levels for our upcoming trip 9/6 - 9/16. Now every day is a 1 which is great news! But the sad part is a 1 in 2018 is equivalent to a 10 in 2008. Disney is just plain crowded but I can live with that.

Yes, a 1 is an hour wait for 7DMT...while it may be the new normal for Disney, I don't think the average person would consider that a 'light' day. People getting all excited about these low numbers coming out not realizing it's not the same meaning as it was 10 years ago.

If this economic bubble pops as some are predicting, the scale will go back to those days.
 
Yes, a 1 is an hour wait for 7DMT...while it may be the new normal for Disney, I don't think the average person would consider that a 'light' day. People getting all excited about these low numbers coming out not realizing it's not the same meaning as it was 10 years ago.

If this economic bubble pops as some are predicting, the scale will go back to those days.


Exactly, however one you accept that WDW is busy and the numbers are relative to the crowds today, you can use them in order to choose a park with a lesser crowd. Bus is busy, I get it, built all the more reason to try a plan.
 
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Yes, a 1 is an hour wait for 7DMT...while it may be the new normal for Disney, I don't think the average person would consider that a 'light' day. People getting all excited about these low numbers coming out not realizing it's not the same meaning as it was 10 years ago.

If this economic bubble pops as some are predicting, the scale will go back to those days.
I think most people on here realize what a 1 means now vs 10 years ago. They go to Disney all the time. They have seen and reported the increasing crowd levels. And anyone who subscribes to TP knows what it means too because they spell it out if you use the crowd calendar. I think the only ones who don't know what a 1 is don't use the crowd calendars anyway. So I don't think people are getting excited because they think crowd levels are going to be what they were years ago at a 1 vs now. I think they are excited because just like previously a 1 is much better than a 6 for crowds.
 
I think most people on here realize what a 1 means now vs 10 years ago. They go to Disney all the time. They have seen and reported the increasing crowd levels. And anyone who subscribes to TP knows what it means too because they spell it out if you use the crowd calendar. I think the only ones who don't know what a 1 is don't use the crowd calendars anyway. So I don't think people are getting excited because they think crowd levels are going to be what they were years ago at a 1 vs now. I think they are excited because just like previously a 1 is much better than a 6 for crowds.

Don't disagree with you other than the amount of people who are really aware of the scale change...

A small segment of people here (who are a fraction of people who go), and go multiple times a year may understand that. But even here there are threads with people getting excited or questioning 1's and 2's for their trip.
I knew the scales were adjusted but never looked up exactly what the new definitions were.. I do know that the 4 levels a few weeks ago were way more crowded than a 4 five years ago. So, yes, there are quite a few people looking at the numbers with the meanings of years ago... Why would they think it would change ? Until they get there and it's not what they expected. Yes, the definitions are on the site, but you have to click on the link to see what it means... People don't do that if they think think they already know.

Throws people off to go from a scale of 'light crowds' - 'Can't move', to a scale of minor varying degrees of 'crowded'. Even though that is what Disney is these days.
 
Don't disagree with you other than the amount of people who are really aware of the scale change...

A small segment of people here (who are a fraction of people who go), and go multiple times a year may understand that. But even here there are threads with people getting excited or questioning 1's and 2's for their trip.
I knew the scales were adjusted but never looked up exactly what the new definitions were.. I do know that the 4 levels a few weeks ago were way more crowded than a 4 five years ago. So, yes, there are quite a few people looking at the numbers with the meanings of years ago... Why would they think it would change ? Until they get there and it's not what they expected. Yes, the definitions are on the site, but you have to click on the link to see what it means... People don't do that if they think think they already know.

Throws people off to go from a scale of 'light crowds' - 'Can't move', to a scale of minor varying degrees of 'crowded'. Even though that is what Disney is these days.
I have to agree. Even though I'm well aware of the update TP did last year, I still find myself seeing a "6" on their calendar and thinking "oh, we've done a 6 day before and it wasn't too bad". I use those numbers as a guideline. I know they aren't perfect and can be wrong. But they provide a jumping off point for me to decide which day in our vacation might be best for which park. After that, it's all about having a good customized touring plan. That is an invaluable tool and why I pay for my TP membership, not the crowd calendar.
 


Don't disagree with you other than the amount of people who are really aware of the scale change...

A small segment of people here (who are a fraction of people who go), and go multiple times a year may understand that. But even here there are threads with people getting excited or questioning 1's and 2's for their trip.
I knew the scales were adjusted but never looked up exactly what the new definitions were.. I do know that the 4 levels a few weeks ago were way more crowded than a 4 five years ago. So, yes, there are quite a few people looking at the numbers with the meanings of years ago... Why would they think it would change ? Until they get there and it's not what they expected. Yes, the definitions are on the site, but you have to click on the link to see what it means... People don't do that if they think think they already know.

Throws people off to go from a scale of 'light crowds' - 'Can't move', to a scale of minor varying degrees of 'crowded'. Even though that is what Disney is these days.
Well I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. Even though you admit to knowing the scales had changed and didn't bother seeing what that meant. That doesn't mean only a small segment of people on this forum know that the scales have changed. I think it is the opposite. Most of the people who use this forum are planners and want information. They would more likely be looking at TP and reading all of the information. I know I do. I belong to several sites and follow multiple blogs. I believe you are in the minority of people who use TP and belong to the Dis. It may not be true of people who use TP overall but I even doubt that. I think most people who use crowd calendars know what they mean.

As far as the people posting about being surprised their days are a 1 or 2, I am one of them. I didn't post that because I thought the park would be empty. I posted that because I didn't understand why they would have lower numbers compared to last year. I did read TP's explanation but I interpret the information differently than they do. I don't know what the motivation of others' is but I would not automatically assume they did't understand what they are talking about.
 
When it's all said and done, with the possible exception of extreme weather, the #1 factor in wait times is how many people are in the park (i.e. how crowded it is). Again, they are not perfect. But, to totally dismiss them is, in my opinion, shortsighted.

Let me ask it this way. Do you believe in the concept that crowds in a specific park are a little lighter on the days following Evening Magic Hours? Don't try and assign a number to it. Just, agree or disagree with the general concept, which is all the people that stayed at MK until midnight last night are not going to be back at that same park at 9 o'clock the next morning.

If you agree with that concept, then you agree with one of the fundamental aspects of Kenny the Pirate's calendar. That is important information for someone new to Disney that may not understand that phenomenon.

That strategy makes a lot of sense to me, but I would like to throw the quesion out there: to those who have used this strategy (favoring parks that had Evening Magic Hours yesterday), do you feel it worked for you?
 
I interpreted what Davey J II was saying differently, I thought he was saying that everyone might have a different idea of what a 3 is or a 6 is, etc.. but touring plans has defined what their values mean so it is standardized and can give one an idea of relative crowd levels.

Yes, even if a 6 today is much more crowded than a 6 ten years ago, if you`re going to be at WDW anyway that day, better to choose the 3 day for a given park.
 
Look at Kenny the Pirate's crowd calendar the other day. His predictions seem to be the complete polar opposite of what TP has for the same particular days. I dunno who to trust here. :confused3
 
Look at Kenny the Pirate's crowd calendar the other day. His predictions seem to be the complete polar opposite of what TP has for the same particular days. I dunno who to trust here. :confused3
TP posts how close they were and they usually seem to be within a level for resort wide (not sure how they do for each individual park but I think they are usually close there too) so I tend to trust TP a bit more and they seem to collect more data than Kenny though anyone please correct me if I'm wrong.
 
Yes, a 1 is an hour wait for 7DMT...while it may be the new normal for Disney, I don't think the average person would consider that a 'light' day. People getting all excited about these low numbers coming out not realizing it's not the same meaning as it was 10 years ago.

If this economic bubble pops as some are predicting, the scale will go back to those days.
7DMT is awful - there, I've said it. Worst waste of an hour wait in all of WDW.
 
TP posts how close they were and they usually seem to be within a level for resort wide (not sure how they do for each individual park but I think they are usually close there too) so I tend to trust TP a bit more and they seem to collect more data than Kenny though anyone please correct me if I'm wrong.

For our upcoming trip, I chose parks on days in which both sites were predicting lesser crowds -- one of the two least crowded for that day. I avoided parks that both sites were predicting would have the heaviest crowds.
 
They do this by having people watch lines and count the number of people exiting...
You will also find like a PP said the difference between a 1 and a 5 are not that big. 7DMT 100-150 and PoC 45-60 at a 5. I don't know how many people make a wait an extra 30 mins but I know TP does.

Does TP do any real time updates? I’m considering a subscription for our upcoming trip. If they had more accurate wait times than MDE, that would be amazing!
 
I think with FP+ it's much harder for them to predict crowd levels or wait times. That's why Josh at EasyWDW stopped doing predictions. Add in Disney changing park hours a few weeks before and it's a hot mess trying to predict anything.

We are there during Jersey Week and I got the email with the 1-2's for crowd levels. I'm just not buying it. I'm expecting heavy crowds and going in with that game plan. If it's slow it'll just be a bonus.


We were there during Jersey Week in 2016 and I based my plans off TP and it was not crowded at all! I was very pleasantly surprised with the crowd level. Hope you are equally as lucky!
 

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