CDC says Cruises can start in July

[jerry557]

Please stop sharing bad information. None of what you posted here is true, including our knowledge of how long the vaccines grant immunity for.

Is the CEO of Pfizer not a good enough source? Do you have a better source that says these vaccines will last longer than what the CEO of the drug company is saying?
“There are vaccines like polio where one dose is enough,” Mr. Bourla said. “And there are vaccines like flu that you need every year. The Covid virus looks more like the influenza virus than the polio virus.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/annual...ots-likely-needed-pfizer-ceo-says-11618520527
If you have a better source, let me know.

And the New York Times is quoting health officials that now do not believe we can reach herd immunity...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html
I apologize if these aren't acceptable sources.

 

[Maggie'sMom]

Getting back to the topic of the ships' crews being vaccinated, a couple thoughts:

1) The ships still don't have a full crew on them yet, so while it's a good start that the existing crew have received the first dose, there is still the hurdle of rehiring crew to fill all the additional positions that need to be filled before a cruise can sail, and getting them vaccinated.
2) I'm not sure you can say that because the crew of the Dream received vaccinations, and it appears the crews of the other ships will be getting theirs soon, that it's a sign DCL are headed towards the CDC option of 95% passengers/ 98% crew vaccinated to sail. I would guess a large portion of the crew on the ships currently want to be vaccinated in anticipation of being able to return to full operation, and DCL was glad to be able to facilitate their crew receiving the vaccines. Plus, DCL might make it a requirement of their crew to be vaccinated, while still choosing to not go that route with the passengers. Personally, I'd feel much better sailing on a 95%-100% vaccinated ship.

I'm certainly encouraged by the news that crews are starting to get the vaccines, and hopeful this means our cruise in September will be happening and the crew and passengers will be largely vaccinated, but I'm still setting up contingency plans for a trip to WDW in place of our cruise on the Dream just in case.

 

[Maggie'sMom]

Is the CEO of Pfizer not a good enough source? Do you have a better source that says these vaccines will last longer than what the CEO of the drug company is saying?
“There are vaccines like polio where one dose is enough,” Mr. Bourla said. “And there are vaccines like flu that you need every year. The Covid virus looks more like the influenza virus than the polio virus.”

Your post @gkrykewy quoted was:

But if vaccinated people spread the virus anyway, what's the difference? The virus still spreads.

If this was a vaccine that you take one time and you are immune for a decade, and it gives you immunity and it stops you from spreading the virus......then yes, you have a point. But right now, at least from what is being told to us, vaccinated and unvaccinated people can both spread the virus. They are both a threat. The only difference between them is the vaccinated person may have less chance of getting seriously ill. In that case, isn't the unvaccinated person the one who's taking the risk?

The research has shown that vaccinated people are significantly less likely to carry and spread the virus. So no, the only difference is not that the vaccinated person has less of a risk of getting seriously ill. That part of your post is false and has been proven false by Pfizer's research.

Yes, you might need a booster every year, especially to deal with the variants, which is also one of the issues with the flu vaccine. There are different strains of flu that circulate each year, and with COVID, there will be different variants. But we still aren't sure how long immunity from the vaccine will last. We now know it is at least 6 months. It could be longer, but it will take more time to study the vaccinated individuals and determine the time frame that immunity lasts. The fewer people that get the vaccine, the more at risk everyone is because failing to slow transmission allows more variants to emerge, and the immunity from the vaccine may not stand up to the variants. That's why it's so important that people get vaccinated.

But there is an entire thread devoted to the vaccine discussion. For this thread, let's keep talking about the possibility of getting ships sailing with passengers again.

 

[wideeyedwonder]

But if vaccinated people spread the virus anyway, what's the difference? The virus still spreads.

From all that I’ve read, the current studies indicate that even if you get COVID-19 after being fully immunized, there is only an incredibly small chance of spreading it to someone else. Incredibly small.

That’s one of the reasons that the CDC loosened up its mask guidances for fully immunized individuals.

Again, being fully vaccinated largely decreases your chance of GETTING COVID-19, AND it immensely decreases your chance of SPREADING COVID-19.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

Getting back to the topic of the ships' crews being vaccinated, a couple thoughts:

1) The ships still don't have a full crew on them yet, so while it's a good start that the existing crew have received the first dose, there is still the hurdle of rehiring crew to fill all the additional positions that need to be filled before a cruise can sail, and getting them vaccinated.
2) I'm not sure you can say that because the crew of the Dream received vaccinations, and it appears the crews of the other ships will be getting theirs soon, that it's a sign DCL are headed towards the CDC option of 95% passengers/ 98% crew vaccinated to sail. I would guess a large portion of the crew on the ships currently want to be vaccinated in anticipation of being able to return to full operation, and DCL was glad to be able to facilitate their crew receiving the vaccines. Plus, DCL might make it a requirement of their crew to be vaccinated, while still choosing to not go that route with the passengers. Personally, I'd feel much better sailing on a 95%-100% vaccinated ship.

I'm certainly encouraged by the news that crews are starting to get the vaccines, and hopeful this means our cruise in September will be happening and the crew and passengers will be largely vaccinated, but I'm still setting up contingency plans for a trip to WDW in place of our cruise on the Dream just in case.

For DCL specifically, I'm with you on #2. I don't think they're headed toward the path of 95% vaccinated passengers, assuming they want to get going out of the US ASAP. Even with 12+ being approved for Pfizer as soon as next week, I'm pretty sure >5% of their manifests are 6mos-11yrs. Of course, that's not public info, but it's a hunch based on our previous sailings from PC. In addition, DCL hasn't indicated they're willing to forego children for the UK sailings, and have carved out a testing protocol to allow minors on board.

I do wonder, however, if Disney won't continue their recent history of going above and beyond for the sake of safety both of CM and guests. Would anyone be shocked if they didn't require vaccines of crew/CM? It would be the best way to avoid staffing shortages due to quarantine and altering itineraries for medevac of crew. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a period of vaccine requirement for any age group where they're approved. Assuming the earliest date a 12yo can get a shot is May 17, shot two would be scheduled the week of June 7-11. For the earliest July sailings, a family would have until June 18 to get the second shot and wait two weeks for full effect. Those sailings would be, spitballing, about 80% passenger protected. I don't know if CDC would allow test sailings in advance of this date, or if DCL even wants to try and rush through that, but a path to majority vaccinated passengers now clearly exists even on a line like Disney with approved adolescents.

We'll probably know more about Disney's plans after they hammer out a few things and fine-tune protocols with these UK sailings. They won't fit guidelines for CDC test sailings, but they will provide both CDC and DCL with valuable data about how their plans work in real life. My best guess still lies around Labor Day for Disney's US return.

 

[tidefan]

For DCL specifically, I'm with you on #2. I don't think they're headed toward the path of 95% vaccinated passengers, assuming they want to get going out of the US ASAP. Even with 12+ being approved for Pfizer as soon as next week, I'm pretty sure >5% of their manifests are 6mos-11yrs. Of course, that's not public info, but it's a hunch based on our previous sailings from PC. In addition, DCL hasn't indicated they're willing to forego children for the UK sailings, and have carved out a testing protocol to allow minors on board.

I do wonder, however, if Disney won't continue their recent history of going above and beyond for the sake of safety both of CM and guests. Would anyone be shocked if they didn't require vaccines of crew/CM? It would be the best way to avoid staffing shortages due to quarantine and altering itineraries for medevac of crew. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a period of vaccine requirement for any age group where they're approved. Assuming the earliest date a 12yo can get a shot is May 17, shot two would be scheduled the week of June 7-11. For the earliest July sailings, a family would have until June 18 to get the second shot and wait two weeks for full effect. Those sailings would be, spitballing, about 80% passenger protected. I don't know if CDC would allow test sailings in advance of this date, or if DCL even wants to try and rush through that, but a path to majority vaccinated passengers now clearly exists even on a line like Disney with approved adolescents.

We'll probably know more about Disney's plans after they hammer out a few things and fine-tune protocols with these UK sailings. They won't fit guidelines for CDC test sailings, but they will provide both CDC and DCL with valuable data about how their plans work in real life. My best guess still lies around Labor Day for Disney's US return.

Actually, I have a different take on this. My thought is that when DCL restarts sailings from FL, it will initially be with 1 ship. I would surmise that crew could be shifted from the Fantasy/Wonder to the Dream (this is just my guess to the first one to sail as the short itineraries and not far from US ports make it a good candidate). While I will agree that DCL will want to have as many under 16's as possible, I would not be surprised if they sent out the first few cruises back requiring full vaccination (or at least the 95%). It's the fastest way back. Plus, to both points, I am going to guess that the first few sailings at least wouldn't go 100% full, so they would expect some attrition.

Bottom line, sailing a 60% full ship of revenue generating vaccinated passengers for a month or two is better than not sailing at all...

 

[Maggie'sMom]

My best guess still lies around Labor Day for Disney's US return.

Our cruise sails on Labor Day, so I'm actually hoping for an early August return for DCL so they can get the kinks out before our sailing.

 

[tidefan]

Our cruise sails on Labor Day, so I'm actually hoping for an early August return for DCL so they can get the kinks out before our sailing.

Your post just gave me another thought on this... If they were to start a month or two with approval on the vaccinated passenger route, couldn't those sailings serve as "test cruises" for when they want go the second route to CDC approval?

 

[Princess Merida]

I’ve been vaccinated, but I won’t be vaccinating my children for some time. One is 9 and isn’t going to be eligible. The other is 14, but I’m not comfortable vaccinating her until it is fully approved and we have more information. Vaccinating my children who have way less chance of severe illness from this and are pretty likely to become ill from the shot is a no go for me until that time comes. Adults who are at risk are able to protect themselves by vaccinating. If Disney Cruise Line requires children to be vaccinated Disney World here we come! We can cruise at a later date. I really don’t see Disney requiring vaccines that are under emergency approval for children, but it could happen.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

Actually, I have a different take on this. My thought is that when DCL restarts sailings from FL, it will initially be with 1 ship. I would surmise that crew could be shifted from the Fantasy/Wonder to the Dream (this is just my guess to the first one to sail as the short itineraries and not far from US ports make it a good candidate). While I will agree that DCL will want to have as many under 16's as possible, I would not be surprised if they sent out the first few cruises back requiring full vaccination (or at least the 95%). It's the fastest way back. Plus, to both points, I am going to guess that the first few sailings at least wouldn't go 100% full, so they would expect some attrition.

Bottom line, sailing a 60% full ship of revenue generating vaccinated passengers for a month or two is better than not sailing at all...

Valid, and reasonable. What happens, though, if the state of emergency doesn't resolve in that interim and they (CDC) won't allow an update to a line's protocols without testing said changes? Especially if the change is as drastic as moving from vaccinated adults (or 16+) only to open youth activities without an approved/authorized vaccine?

Your plan of just one ship of short sailings is probably the no-brainer route. Visiting Nassau in DCL-only port adventures will keep most people on the ship (I'm guessing), and CC is a natural bubble situation and an extension of the ship. Might not see some of the third party tour operators on Castaway unless they can vaccinate their employees.

 

[Maggie'sMom]

Your post just gave me another thought on this... If they were to start a month or two with approval on the vaccinated passenger route, couldn't those sailings serve as "test cruises" for when they want go the second route to CDC approval?

I'm not sure, but the flaw I see is that the test sailings are supposed to mimic the eventual revenue generating sailings. You can't say that a sailing with 100% of the passengers and crew vaccinated is a test for a later sailing that won't have a vaccine requirement and will have unvaccinated kids running around the clubs.

 

[Sykes]

I'm not sure, but the flaw I see is that the test sailings are supposed to mimic the eventual revenue generating sailings. You can't say that a sailing with 100% of the passengers and crew vaccinated is a test for a later sailing that won't have a vaccine requirement and will have unvaccinated kids running around the clubs.

The simulated voyages and restricted passenger voyages would need to be the same ship and accurately reflect the itinerary, but the simulated voyages that may be bypassed with vaccinated passengers wouldn't have any passengers at all, so it seems pretty likely that the CDC would accept revenue sailings with vaccinated passengers as a substitute for them. If they went that route, though, it's unclear what the path is to go from 95% vaccinated to, say, 70% vaccinated (to allow for unvaccinated kids), but it's probably a slow and phased approach.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Your post just gave me another thought on this... If they were to start a month or two with approval on the vaccinated passenger route, couldn't those sailings serve as "test cruises" for when they want go the second route to CDC approval?

No. Not as written. It is not permitted for test sailings to have paid passengers. With that kind of guideline, execution tends to be strictly-as-drafted.

That said, CDC may carve out exception cases on test sailings for lines using vaccinated passenger rules to start.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

And as far as the "boot up with one ship," comedy option is to alternate Dream/Fantasy sailings to allow for deep cleaning between sailings.

 

[princessmommyx3]

And as far as the "boot up with one ship," comedy option is to alternate Dream/Fantasy sailings to allow for deep cleaning between sailings.

The CDC has said that the risk of transmission through surfaces is very small so I don’t think deep cleanings would be necessary unless they just do it for show.

 

[JWelch62]

The CDC has said that the risk of transmission through surfaces is very small so I don’t think deep cleanings would be necessary unless they just do it for show.

Yes, and the amount of cleaning that is done already on DCL ships is probably more than enough.

EDIT: Added a word

 

[wideeyedwonder]

Yes, and the amount of cleaning that is done already on DCL ships is probably more than enough.
EDIT: Added a word

I do like constant cleaning of the rails, buttons, etc.

Although COVID-19 might not be so easily spread through surface contact as once thought, *Norovirus* is easily spread through surface contact, as far as a remember. For those new to cruising, Norovirus is that "cruise flu" that we all used to worry about in the pre-COVID-19 days (remember those, lol!) because it is so easily spread, and though not deadly (???), would easily ruin a cruise (vomiting, diarrhea, and stomach cramping, low-grade fever or chills, headache, and muscle aches, quarantined to cabin while this is happening), even for the most cheerful and upbeat of us.

 

[SailorsWhyf]

Our cruise sails on Labor Day, so I'm actually hoping for an early August return for DCL so they can get the kinks out before our sailing.

I volunteer!! My DD (18) and I are booked on Aug 16, both fully vaccinated.
We’re ready to take one for the team

edit to correct the date

 

[jrapps]

Our cruise sails on Labor Day, so I'm actually hoping for an early August return for DCL so they can get the kinks out before our sailing.

We also have Labor Day booked. I am not that optimistic, but if they sail, I'll be on it depending on the protocols. My youngest won't be old enough for a vaccine by then so I am expecting SOME sort of controls in place.

I booked another in January as a backup so if Labor Day doesn't happen, we will push out a few months.

 

[CamColt]

Let's remember to keep this on track. This is not the place to discuss opinions on vaccines.