Perfect! Here's what I came up with (see attached PDF).
I'm assessing your fitness based on two things. Your 8:15 mile pre-surgery (and the feeling you're not there yet) and your ability to do a 13:00 min/mile at 6 miles in warm conditions relatively easily. I'm taking a stab to say that you are likely a 8:46 miler right now, a 1:03 10k, and a 2:19 HM runner. Those longer distances are when fully trained and you are unlikely to be in that condition come race day. However, with that being said, I train my runners at their current fitness physiologically relevant paces and I'm thinking we're really close to your estimate.
The paces prescribed are based on ideal conditions. I put the estimated T+D (temp+dew point) of your 6 miler at 142 (or around a 72 F degree run with a dew point of 70). So nice, hot and humid. When the T+D rises, the ideal pacing shifts as well. So the easy runs should be around a 13:00 min/mile on an ideal 100 T+D day (like a 60 F with dew point of 40). But when the T+D rises, I'd like to see you slow down the intended pace. So if a T+D of 140 occurs, then add a 3% adjustment so that the pace goal becomes 13:28 instead. If it all gets too confusing, then remember that effort is king. Whether it's a nice cool day or a super hot day, the easy run should "feel" the same. Easy. If easy doesn't "feel" easy, then it isn't easy. Slow down. Ideally, we see nearly even splits on all runs outside of external factors and extreme changes. So if I know that at 8am my run will be T+D 100 and at 10am a T+D of 160, I set my pacing for the whole run based on the worst expected condition (T+D 160). In addition, these paces are based on a similar terrain to the 8:15 mile and 6 mile run. So if the 6 mile run was flat, but the upcoming 7 mile run is hilly, then the pace goal should slow down again. Adjust the pace to match the right effort. Here's the pacing adjustment chart:
View attachment 375718
Next was determining your current training load and figuring out how much we could increase it by in 5 weeks. Based on the numbers, we're looking at increasing the weekly training load by about 21-27 easy minutes per week. So with 10 miles (and an estimated 130 min) last week, then you're looking to be around 156 min and 12 miles this week. Since you're running the challenge with three consecutive days (and because I'm a big believer in balance in training) I've moved your 3 days per week to 4 days per week. So the training load stays appropriate, but reducing the recovery time period between runs slightly. In the second week (1/21), I'm adding back in the longer training run, but adding in a goal HM Tempo fast finish. I'm doing this to help reinforce the mindset of start slow, stay even, and finish fast. Drop back down in week 3 to allow some skeletal/muscular recovery, and then build back up for the peak the week of 2/4. Based on the calculations, I feel as if this is as high as I can take you in this short time frame and still maintain that balance between enough, but not too much. It's below an ideal situation when fully trained, but I still think it puts you in a position to succeed on race day.
For the race weekend, I've placed all the paces at easy.
Here is the longer form of generic instructions:
How I write a custom training plan (instructions) *The run/walk instructions are about half-way through that post.
Questions/concerns? Requests for changes? I write these plans to fit around the runner's life not the other way around. So feel free to request changes because I want you to feel comfortable with the plan.
I've assessed your current capabilities to be around a 1:03 10k and 2:19 HM. But with your old mile PR around 8:15, that would be a 59 min 10k or 2:10 HM. If reaching for those time goals are of interest to you, then send me a PM after the Princess weekend. We could come up with something to get you to those times based on your life and schedule. If you're not interested in reaching for time goals, then that's fine too. I just want to help you reach whatever your personal goals are because to me all running goals are important no matter what they are.
My next long run is next week and I hope the snow isn't too heavy for it!
