Anyone else given up on the possibility of cruising

[Cruising Engineer]

We're all in and looking forward to our Sept 2020 cruise.

 

[WB1971]

Although Disney can park their ships longer than most cruise lines due to their other sources of revenue, at what point does it become detrimental to the company? The other cruise lines will start back up and if DCL just sits idle because they can, it will destroy the loyalty they have built up. Many of us have our hopes and money tied up in future DCL cruises. If they just park their ships because they don't need to start up because cruising is such a small part of their company's overall revenue, then you get tens or hundreds of thousands of DCL cruisers who get their cruises cancelled and their hopes and dreams shattered. Not only do you get paid and booked DCL cruisers who will be let down, you then get to watch those formerly paid and booked DCL cruisers go to other cruise lines because they have no other choice.

My family and I are platinum DCL cruisers and have never cruised with another cruise line. I do not even consider another cruise line because I truly believe DCL is the best. If DCL cancels our upcoming cruise while the other cruise lines resume cruising, we will have no choice but to try other cruise lines. I would like to stay with DCL but if they refuse to cruise while the other cruise lines operate, what can you do? So if I were DCL, why would I want to just sit and watch hundreds of thousands of loyal DCL cruisers go try other brands and risk the fact that a percentage might actually enjoy certain aspects of the other brands and start spending their money elsewhere? Plus, DCL waiting until the last minute to cancel cruises that they have known for months were not going out, that just leaves a bad taste.

We are all well aware of COVID and are all aware of the risks involved. Let us sign a waiver that we wont sue and let's get on with cruising. You can get on a 3 day Greyhound bus from NYC to LA, so why can we not get on a 3 day DCL out of PC? If there are those that want to wait for a vaccine, then they don't have to book a cruise until next year, next decade, next century or whenever the hypothetical vaccine comes into existence. We cannot pause the world waiting on vaccines that may or may not ever come.

Well said. Pause the world “until a vaccine” as so many want to do, then what happens when COVID22 or 23 or 24 happens? Shut down for another year? This shutdown is bankrupting us, only an economic fool can’t see it’s not sustainable.

 

[T & R]

(They stacked bodies in refrigerated trucks instead of the hallways...)

Apologies for not seeing this virus with rose-colored glasses... In my province, the flu kills more or less 300 each year. COVID killed over 5000 within three months.

The best thing for us is a vaccine.

The death stats per year for flu and pneumonia onset from flu is in the thousands per year in the Quebec Province. From what I can see there is little middle ground and you're either in the camp of let's put everybody into unemployment poverty lockdown or you're in the camp of live your life understanding there is bad things in life and you cannot go around living in fear. I hear malaria is deadly, does that mean everyone in Africa locks themselves indoors? No, they do not. If anyone wants to personal message me via this board I would be more than happy to do the back and forth further off thread but I doubt anything will change minds so we can all agree to disagree rather that hijack this thread any further. People die and people will continue to die and although it is sad, almost everybody who gets COVID will not die. If people are not comfortable with cruising, then don't cruise and wait for your vaccine. The COVID-19 vaccine should work just long enough until COVID-20 comes along, just like how ineffective the flu vaccine is.

 

[BartmanLA]

I suppose that I'm viewing this all from DCL's viewpoint, they KNOW that many many many loyal Disney Cruise guests anxious, eager and panting to return to cruising, but on the whole I think they're seeing this all from the long range aspect. Sure they would love to get guests back on board as soon as possible, but after the suspect accusations made resulting from the 2020 WBPC trip that were leveled by an attorney that was purely seeking financial gain for himself and any "clients" he could sign up, I'm sure DCL is being very cautious and willing to be very certain that it will be utterly and completely safe for families to come back on board, as well as protecting one of their most valuable resources, the crews! I don't think they're willing to risk any more bad publicity or accusations against the company or the ships, which we all know consistently get stellar ratings on cleanliness and hygiene from various publications and websites, so I believe that they feel that they can wait until they're absolutely certain they are going to be able to welcome guests on board with no worries and that everyone will be able to experience the Disney "magic" that they're famous for. Sure it might take a bit longer, but I think that it will well be worth waiting until DCL feels that we can resume cruising with the Mouse, step onboard and leave all our worries on shore.

 

[o&smom]

I suppose that I'm viewing this all from DCL's viewpoint, they KNOW that many many many loyal Disney Cruise guests anxious, eager and panting to return to cruising, but on the whole I think they're seeing this all from the long range aspect. Sure they would love to get guests back on board as soon as possible, but after the suspect accusations made resulting from the 2020 WBPC trip that were leveled by an attorney that was purely seeking financial gain for himself and any "clients" he could sign up, I'm sure DCL is being very cautious and willing to be very certain that it will be utterly and completely safe for families to come back on board, as well as protecting one of their most valuable resources, the crews! I don't think they're willing to risk any more bad publicity or accusations against the company or the ships, which we all know consistently get stellar ratings on cleanliness and hygiene from various publications and websites, so I believe that they feel that they can wait until they're absolutely certain they are going to be able to welcome guests on board with no worries and that everyone will be able to experience the Disney "magic" that they're famous for. Sure it might take a bit longer, but I think that it will well be worth waiting until DCL feels that we can resume cruising with the Mouse, step onboard and leave all our worries on shore.

What accusations were made? I was on the cruise, and know Disney did everything possible to keep the virus at bay, but we still ended up getting it - even with endless hand washing. The reality was that a very contagious virus was spreading everywhere.

 

[Doofenshmirtz513]

[Deleted]

 

[Wreckem]

AIDS is 100% fatal (with the exception of Magic Johnson). Do we quarantine AIDS patients? The sky is not falling and we’re not all going to die. Actually it’s the opposite.

Ummm. HIV is completely treatable(not curable) and those diagnosed with HIV have normal life spans when on treatment. Many have such low viral load they aren’t contagious. HIV is a terrible comparison.

 

[coloradocutie]

Not worth it to us. Our next cruise is 6/2021 to Alaska and DH already wants to cancel.
Even if there is a vaccine before then, I don’t want to be in the early waves of trying it out. We are super healthy but would prefer to stay that way.

Ditto. We are in the medical profession. We definitely won't be the first in line for a brand spankin' new vaccine... (and I totally love vaccines).

 

[jane01jp]

Not at all. I am growing increasingly optimistic for an effective vaccine being approved by the end of the year and available in the early part of the new year. I am also hopeful that one of the many promising pharmaceutical treatments breaks through. Furthermore, I am hopeful that the virus runs its course and mostly peters out by region over the next several months, as some scientists are predicting and as we are seeing in many areas of the world. For whatever reason, death rates are certainly falling in many areas, even areas where infection rates are still increasing. I am seeing more and more to be optimistic about in the next 3-6 month time frame.

Regardless of whether any of the above happens, I have zero doubt that we are, and will, learn to return to normal, where we accept the risk of the virus and go on with life. Check out video from Paris and other parts of Europe. Many cities are already doing that and life looks more or less normal. I am seeing it in Utah too. We are close to operating pre-pandemic, despite rising cases. Humanity is/will decide to move on, despite the very sad loss of life when we do. Sure, if you are in a high-risk group, it may not be an option for you. But even there, I know people who have accepted the risk and want to live life to the fullest now. We plan to cruise next March and June, so long as Disney is sailing, and I think that is almost a certainty now.

I think the "petering out" effect in some places is a function of the populations in those areas having come close to reaching "herd immunity." In New York, new daily confirmed cases are running at 5-7% of peak levels. The current number of daily confirmed cases is still several hundred, but they do not seem to be at risk of growing significantly again. Of the 15% of New Yorkers tested for coronavirus, about 86% have tested negative. At the outset, a few hundred cases were sufficient to cause several hundred thousand infections and 31 thousand deaths. If 86% of people were still at risk, then it is unlikely that the disease would be receding in New York. This likely implies that a large percentage of the population has natural immunity to the disease - perhaps as much as 80%. New Jersey looks somewhat similar to New York, and Pennsylvania appears not too far behind.

We see the same thing in Spain and Italy, where new cases, although still hundreds per day, are a tiny fraction of peak new daily cases.

Conversely, most other US states are still seeing daily new cases that are on the rise, or have not dropped off sufficiently from peak levels to indicate herd immunity.

Washington State is an interesting example. Their current daily new cases are about 30-35% of peak levels. Washington State has tested only about 6.1% of its population. Washington state has only had 6% test positive, and 94% test negative. Washington state had vigorous suppression efforts in the spring, but have still seen significantly high relative numbers of new cases. It seems evident that the disease has not "run its course" in Washington.

It should be evident from this that until the disease has progressed as far in the other states as it has in NY/NJ, it will continue to run rampant. Suppression efforts will only make it take longer. It should also be evident that we are close to halfway through this in most states and close to completely done with it in New York/New Jersey.

So, having said all of that, how long this lasts may be a function of suppression efforts. In any case, I do not see it lasting more than a few more months. If my analysis is correct, it is unlikely that a vaccine would be beneficial, and even more unlikely that a beneficial vaccine would arrive in time to make much of a difference in the US . If, for example, 80% of the population has natural immunity to the disease, then immunizing 100% of the population, after most of the remaining 20% has been infected would be unnecessary and perhaps reckless.

By way of background, I am a retired finance guy who likes statistics. I am not an expert in modeling nor immunology, but I also have no political agenda.

 

[Malestrom Troll]

We are booked for a Sep cruise and still holding out hope. Mainly bc a 125% credit will do us no good when the new comparable booking will probably be double the price not to mention the loss of OBB stateroom credit.

 

[ironz]

The COVID-19 vaccine should work just long enough until COVID-20 comes along, just like how ineffective the flu vaccine is.

In case you think this is the 19th iteration of this coronavirus and there is a 20th coming--- COVID19 was named for the year 2019. There were not Covid1-18 preceding it.
Please stop spouting off incorrect assumptions about this disease.

 

[jane01jp]

 

[jane01jp]

In pre-market stock trading, both Norwegian Cruise Lines and Carnival are up more than 4%, while the S&P index is up about 1.5%.

Someone thinks the odds are improving that there will be cruise vacations again.

 

[T & R]

In case you think this is the 19th iteration of this coronavirus and there is a 20th coming--- COVID19 was named for the year 2019. There were not Covid1-18 preceding it.
Please stop spouting off incorrect assumptions about this disease.

Looks like you’re the one making incorrect assumptions about me thinking Covid1-18 preceding it. I’m very aware that “19” was named from the year ID’d so there could very easily be a 20 and next year there could even be a 21, just like when flu strain vaccines no longer work on the new mutated strains of the flu. That’s what I meant by a Covid-20. A COVID-19 vaccine could be as effective as the flu vaccine, works till next year’s strain. And since we have the flu vaccine as a precedent, seems very possible and should even be anticipated for everyone’s well being.

 

[LunaMini]

I don't mind at all. Because we were PIF, we did "lose" our deposit, however we had purchased DCL insurance, so if we file a claim with the insurance, we can receive 75% of our deposit in the form of a cruise credit good for one year. We have not pursued this option just yet, in case Disney does cancel the sailing. If they cancel the sailing we will be refunded the deposit. According to my brother who was sailing with us, he did not see anything about a time limit for pursuing a claim, so we are going to hold tight for another month or two. I hope that is somewhat helpful; I'm totally green when it comes to cruising so it's possible a veteran might have other helpful info.

Thank you unfortunately we’re not entitled to the DCL insurance as we’re UK based. We’re sitting it out a bit longer to see what happens. If we can get there and feel it’s safe to do so we will sail, if not I’m hopeful that maybe DCL will allow me to transfer our booking to another sailing in the future

 

[CleverHarer]

We're all in and looking forward to our Sept 2020 cruise.

us too! It’ll be our first Disney Cruise (and my sister’s first cruise ever!)

 

[John VN]

We're all in and looking forward to our Sept 2020 cruise.

us too! It’ll be our first Disney Cruise (and my sister’s first cruise ever!)

DW just cancelled our late Aug. cruise on day before PIF. Our early Dec. cruise is still a go for launch as is our late Jan. '21. Unlike many who absolutely must interact with other cruisers, attend events onboard and/or go on excursions, we are fine with just chill'n out but then we are OK with hanging out at our FW campsite and not even hitting the Parks during a WDW stay. Will be at FW in a few weeks just chill'n.

 

[LunaMini]

us too! It’ll be our first Disney Cruise (and my sister’s first cruise ever!)

We’re first time cruisers in September too! Hopefully we can get there from the UK by then!

 

[Barbydoll8]

We are on the Aug 25th Fantasy cruise w/ 2 days at CC. We are paid in full and fully expect to go. Luckily we are FL residents so we can drive to the port. Face masks are fine where they are needed and we will comply. We do in stores etc.
I know there is still a chance that it will cancel but I just checked yesterday and it looks like the boat will be a bit more than half full so many are intenting to keep this reservation.

 

[mevelandry]

The death stats per year for flu and pneumonia onset from flu is in the thousands per year in the Quebec Province. From what I can see there is little middle ground and you're either in the camp of let's put everybody into unemployment poverty lockdown or you're in the camp of live your life understanding there is bad things in life and you cannot go around living in fear. I hear malaria is deadly, does that mean everyone in Africa locks themselves indoors? No, they do not. If anyone wants to personal message me via this board I would be more than happy to do the back and forth further off thread but I doubt anything will change minds so we can all agree to disagree rather that hijack this thread any further. People die and people will continue to die and although it is sad, almost everybody who gets COVID will not die. If people are not comfortable with cruising, then don't cruise and wait for your vaccine. The COVID-19 vaccine should work just long enough until COVID-20 comes along, just like how ineffective the flu vaccine is.

Your numbers for influenza in Quebec are not correct.

And believe it or not, there's a camp right in the middle which is: let's be on the "careful" side, meaning... Being polite and wear a mask when we can't remain 6ft from other people, wash our hands and work from home when it is possible... Until the number of cases go down. Social distancing is efficient and on top of COVID, the cases of influenza dropped drastically in Canada thanks to social distancing.

Coronavirus is not influenza. It simply doesn't react the same way.