When Will the US Reach 100,000 COVID deaths?

[BuckeyeBama]

I expect it to go back up with a 12 day lag due to reopening. I still feel confident we’ll hit 100 thousand deaths by June 1st.

I am just trying to remain optimistic.

 

[RamblingMad]

I am just trying to remain optimistic.

I am being optimistic. My pessimist view is far worse.

 

[Dan Murphy]

I still feel confident we’ll hit 100 thousand deaths by June 1st.

From where the toll is currently, and the daily rate of deaths, before that date.

 

[Dan Murphy]

WH now predicts, based on their models, death toll will be at least 147,000 by August 4th.

 

[Dan Murphy]

CDC now saying 100,00 by June 1st. At the current rate of 1,700 to 2,000 a day, and toll at 88,000 now, it would be by May 22nd. Very sad indeed.

 

[HeatherC]

CDC now saying 100,00 by June 1st. At the current rate of 1,700 to 2,000 a day, and toll at 88,000 now, it would be by May 22nd. Very sad indeed.

It is definitely sad. And I do think it will be before June 1 also. Unfortunately, at this point I don’t think we will see anything change for quite some time because of a lack of cohesive decision making, guidelines and planning.

 

[HeatherC]

I just looked when this thread was started and it was April 14. I think the numbers then were 23,000. It appears that we have lost 55,000 in one month. How horrible.

 

[mousefan73]

I really don’t understand the information and data used for these official government prognosises. They have always been wrong.
I have been watching the worldometer website figures daily for the past two months and I guesstimated total of deaths based off of just those figures patterns. I was always close. I agree with a PP that the US will be hitting 100 thousand around May 22nd. I am guessing more the 20th. It’s a sad number to guess.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

If we do this right or close to right with a little luck, hopefully never.

I've lost hope for hopefully never. We didn't do this right and as such we needed more than a little luck. We didn't get it.

 

[Cubbiecakes]

I just looked when this thread was started and it was April 14. I think the numbers then were 23,000. It appears that we have lost 55,000 in one month. How horrible.

It's like everyone the town I grew up in is completely dead.

 

[godisney14]

We could probably start a new thread now on estimating when the next milestones will occur: 150k and 200k deaths.

 

[RamblingMad]

We could probably start a new thread now on estimating when the next milestones will occur: 150k and 200k deaths.

We should move it a million deaths. That seems more challenging.

If we do continue to move up to 2 thousand deaths a day, then that's 60 thousand deaths a month assuming a R0 of one. We could reach a million deaths in a little over a year. If the R0 returns to over one, then we can expect to reach a million deaths in less than a year.

This is my optimistic view assuming we don't shut down again and people don't wear masks and maintain social distancing until a vaccine comes out. Based on what I saw today, I feel good about that view.

 

[godisney14]

We should move it a million deaths. That seems more challenging.

If we do continue to move up to 2 thousand deaths a day, then that's 60 thousand deaths a month assuming a R0 of one. We could reach a million deaths in a little over a year. If the R0 returns to over one, then we can expect to reach a million deaths in less than a year.

This is my optimistic view assuming we don't shut down again and people don't wear masks and maintain social distancing until a vaccine comes out. Based on what I saw today, I feel good about that view.

Oh yea, give it a few weeks for the soft openings across the country to provide additional data. The R0 is definitely going to stay above one.

 

[RamblingMad]

Oh yea, give it a few weeks for the soft openings across the country to provide additional data. The R0 is definitely going to stay above one.

That's my guess.

I saw a Sky News report that showed R0s in the UK between 0.4 and 0.8. I'm sure in the US we're seeing the same across the country based on how compliant people are to social distancing and staying at home. I'm not holding my breath on masks.

I went to a farmer's market stand today. Out of about 15 people there, I saw two wearing masks, not include myself and significant other.

 

[leebee]

When will we reach 100,000 deaths? Soon... very soon.

 

[cobright]

I am just trying to remain optimistic.

That's the optimist's paradox. Bet on the best happening and if it doesn't you've lost your bet, and you have that bad thing to deal with. The pessimist bets on it going poorly and if it doesn't, well he's lost the bet but has that good news to console themselves with.

I picked May 20 exactly and (barring some sort of cataclysm) I'm happy enough to be wrong; if even by just a few days.

I'm sure in the US we're seeing the same across the country based on how compliant people are to social distancing and staying at home.

 

[mom2rtk]

Maybe someone could start a pool? Maybe pick up on some of the action that got canceled with March madness. Because that’s sort of how this all sounds.

 

[Heather07438]

My hope is we do not double the loss over the next 365 days. Still somber but that would mean we successfully got some control by slowing spread and improving therapies. Do we have that capability? Sure, potentially. Time will tell.

My family, business and friends are really trying to think about how we can make life work with a focus on reducing transmission risk.

It's like defensive driving. You make good habits to avoid danger and after a while you can go through the motions without having to think about it much. Work it into our new default settings.

 

[Planogirl]

To me the date we reach 100,000 doesn't matter as much as the fact we reach 100,000. Where will that end and when will daily number of deaths slow down? Are some overlooking that in the rush to get back to normal? Whatever normal is.

 

[wombat_5606]

Georgia has had a little problem this morning. It appears that Georgia Public Health has been "cooking the books" and the Governor has had to apologize. This latest error was the most recent one of three that has actually occurred in the last 3 weeks. Of course, everyone is passing the buck as to who is responsible.

It actually showed that new confirmed cases in the most infectious counties in Georgia had gone down every single day for 2 weeks!

People have been watching the official numbers and thinking they are doing very well, when they have had a plateau and a slight dip.

I hope I'm not mortified when I see the numbers from this play out over the next 2-3 weeks.