Thank you for the clarification. I spent a year or so in grad school, working with a group modeling pandemics (my background is in engineering systems risk assessment, and we were applying our systems/engineering risk modeling tools to traditional pandemic modeling techniques). The R0 numbers, and long incubation were always the two biggest factors that drove global spread, and the values being reported for COVID were inline with the high/bad-outcome models we saw. Unfortunately, I must not have gotten my vocabulary completely correct, as the epidemiology research group we were working with always referred to those calculations as "mortality rate" as they would plug directly into what we called "failure rate" parameters in engineering systems.
It is really the flu stats I am thinking about. I think yours are low. Also, you have to consider that the majority of people in Asia who have contracted Coronavirus are not in those numbers. In addition, death rates in the US will be far lower than in Asia.
Completely agree about being underestimated. I believe in the next week or so we will realize it is much more widespread than we think. There are new cases waiting to be confirmed in CA, OR, WA and other states who have not traveled or been in known contact with someone. Also, the guidelines to even test for it from the CDC are quite narrow with only testing people with symptoms who have been to “known” areas or been in contact with someone who has, or testing people admitted to the hospital with SEVERE respiratory symptoms. All of theses things that are being done that concern/scare people have been to contain it. I think it will soon be seen that it is already beyond containment and that it cannot be controlled and will run it’s course and all these “quarantines” will be a thing of the past.
I do think it could be as severe as the flu— and a flu where the vaccine doesn’t work. But I do not personally worry about the flu. I still vacation when the flu is flaring up. I agree there seems to be a variety of ways to calculate the flu rate. But for me the sum is I put it in a flu/cold category.
I do wonder how well the dashboard works, for my country in the list on the left it says 6 cases, while when you click on the country, you see the actual number which is 4 (2 cases, 1 man on his own, and a woman who infected 2 of her family members. Interesting detail, only 1 out of 3 children got the virus from their mother). When I click on Belgium, I get the figures for Thailand.
Hugs. I understand.
Just to give further updates after the last 4 hours on the phone with the airlines, Travelocity (never got through to them after an hour on hold) and DCL. DCL is being the most helpful, accessible and professional with answers. I have not officially received a mail from DCL yet and I found out why. The letters that have been sent out about restricted boarding only apply until the end of March. My cruise being April 20th has not been canceled for me yet. Now I have no hope that it won't roll over to April.... I am realistic about that. I do hope the information I can provide will help others as we all sit and wait with FE gifts packed and prepared, knowing that things aren't looking good.
