Update from DCL

[islandsnoopy]

Just received the following DCL e-mail:

On Thursday we sent you an email about your upcoming cruise vacation and the proactive steps we are taking in regard to Coronavirus Disease 2019.

As we mentioned was possible, information continues to evolve and today public health officials have issued additional travel guidance and some of our ports of call have provided further information regarding who they will allow into their ports based on travel history. Therefore, the following updated guidelines are in effect and may continue to evolve as more information becomes available:

• Any guest or crew member who has traveled from, to or through China, including Hong Kong and Macau, South Korea, Italy, Iran or Japan, within 14 days of their sailing's departure will not be able to board our ships.
• Any guest who has been in contact with someone from these areas, including guests with connecting flights in these locations, also will not be able to board, nor will anyone who has helped care for someone suspected or diagnosed with coronavirus, or who is currently subject to health monitoring for possible exposure. Guests who have air travel booked through Disney Cruise Line will automatically have their flights rebooked on an alternate route. Guests who booked their own air travel arrangements should contact their airlines directly to make the appropriate changes.
• As is always our practice, we screen all guests before they board and anyone who feels unwell with gastrointestinal or flu-like symptoms (fever over 100.4º F, chills, cough or difficulty breathing) will not be permitted to sail.
• If your cruise includes a stop in Nassau or Castaway Cay, please note that The Bahamas will not allow anyone to disembark in any Bahamian port if they have been to China in the past 20 days prior to arrival. These guests may be able to sail but will be unable to visit The Bahamas.
• If your cruise includes a stop in Jamaica, please note that in addition to the locations noted above, officials there also will not allow guests who have visited Singapore within 14 days of arrival to come ashore. These guests may be able to sail but will be unable to visit Jamaica.

If any of these situations apply to you, please contact us at 1-866-325-2112 or 407-566-3510 so that we can discuss your options.

 

[freshmanjs]

Of course it will die down dramatically when the seasons change. This is how the flu and cold viruses operate, and it is why the Japanese have been very proactive and are closing schools until that seasonal change. It sounds like on one hand, you are saying everyone needs to calm down, but then on the other hand, you are saying go ahead freak out. This is a cold. The New England journal of medicine has said it will be no worse than a flu. I see no reason for people and institutions to change their daily activities no more than they would for the flu. The media has gone completely insane and is enjoying the drama. Millions of people are infected with cold and flu viruses everyday, every year, and no one worries unnecessarily about that risk. In a month or two, this will be a memory as the flu season is every year.

which nejm study are you referring to? I’ve read everything they have in their covid 19 collection and none of it says anything of the sort. China does not quarantine millions of people and destroy roads and other infrastructure for a “cold”. It’s absurd on its face.

 

[MarkLT1]

This is a cold. The New England journal of medicine has said it will be no worse than a flu.

I am incredibly tired of seeing this trope being thrown around. The NEJM in no way shape or form stated "it will be no worse than the flu." The article you are referencing, states that the mortality rate could be as low as a severe flu, or could be as high as 3-4% (30-40x higher than a typical flu). The same article then states:

Our study has some notable limitations....

Then goes on to list that they had incomplete documentation on many patients, a relatively low sample size of reliable data, unreliable date data to determine incubation time, and a large portion of the patients in the analysis are still in the hospital and so have not resolved the disease, among other things. In other words, it is a very early study, with a high level of uncertainty, and much more time/data is needed before we have any firm grip on the true mortality of the virus.

Furthermore, if you want to look at perspectives from NEJM, here is how their perspective piece about the virus ends:

With luck, public health control measures may be able to put the demons back in the jar. If they do not, we face a daunting challenge equal to or perhaps greater than that posed by the influenza pandemic of a century ago.

Comparison to a pandemic that killed (scaled for today's population) 50 million people globally. THIS IS NOT A COLD.

• Should we all panic? No.
• Are media sources sensationalizing this- absolutely.
• Are other media sources prematurely trying to claim this is nothing- absolutely.

COVID is a nasty bug (especially to those 65+, or who have other lung issues), and by all data/measures we have currently (R0, mortality rate, comorbidity effects, etc..) appears to be worse than the flu. It may start to fizzle out as weather gets warmer, but as many have pointed out, it seems to be spreading pretty easily in the middle east (Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE), and south-east Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Hainan) where temperatures and in some cases humidity are already at the levels where we see the flu and cold season fizzle out in North America. So time will tell.

A significant amount of data is pointing to it being worse, to potentially much worse than the flu. A smaller amount of data point to it being "only" as bad as a bad seasonal flu.

Lastly, do you really think the PRC would have essentially thrown its own economy into complete turmoil and chaos if this was only a cold?

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I am incredibly tired of seeing this trope being thrown around. The NEJM in no way shape or form stated "it will be no worse than the flu." The article you are referencing, states that the mortality rate could be as low as a severe flu, or could be as high as 3-4% (30-40x higher than a typical flu). The same article then states:

Then goes on to list that they had incomplete documentation on many patients, a relatively low sample size of reliable data, unreliable date data to determine incubation time, and a large portion of the patients in the analysis are still in the hospital and so have not resolved the disease, among other things. In other words, it is a very early study, with a high level of uncertainty, and much more time/data is needed before we have any firm grip on the true mortality of the virus.

Furthermore, if you want to look at perspectives from NEJM, here is how their perspective piece about the virus ends:


Comparison to a pandemic that killed (scaled for today's population) 50 million people globally. THIS IS NOT A COLD.

• Should we all panic? No.
• Are media sources sensationalizing this- absolutely.
• Are other media sources prematurely trying to claim this is nothing- absolutely.

COVID is a nasty bug (especially to those 65+, or who have other lung issues), and by all data/measures we have currently (R0, mortality rate, comorbidity effects, etc..) appears to be worse than the flu. It may start to fizzle out as weather gets warmer, but as many have pointed out, it seems to be spreading pretty easily in the middle east (Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE), and south-east Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Hainan) where temperatures and in some cases humidity are already at the levels where we see the flu and cold season fizzle out in North America. So time will tell.

A significant amount of data is pointing to it being worse, to potentially much worse than the flu. A smaller amount of data point to it being "only" as bad as a bad seasonal flu.

Lastly, do you really think the PRC would have essentially thrown its own economy into complete turmoil and chaos if this was only a cold?

I have some news for you. All studies have limitations. And you can do your own study of the data— it is actually NOT as deadly as the flu. So relax, you don’t have to get so worked up because someone has a different opinion than you do.

Also, you might want to look up the word trope.

 

[Niclovesdisney]

Just received the following DCL e-mail:

On Thursday we sent you an email about your upcoming cruise vacation and the proactive steps we are taking in regard to Coronavirus Disease 2019.

As we mentioned was possible, information continues to evolve and today public health officials have issued additional travel guidance and some of our ports of call have provided further information regarding who they will allow into their ports based on travel history. Therefore, the following updated guidelines are in effect and may continue to evolve as more information becomes available:

• Any guest or crew member who has traveled from, to or through China, including Hong Kong and Macau, South Korea, Italy, Iran or Japan, within 14 days of their sailing's departure will not be able to board our ships.
• Any guest who has been in contact with someone from these areas, including guests with connecting flights in these locations, also will not be able to board, nor will anyone who has helped care for someone suspected or diagnosed with coronavirus, or who is currently subject to health monitoring for possible exposure. Guests who have air travel booked through Disney Cruise Line will automatically have their flights rebooked on an alternate route. Guests who booked their own air travel arrangements should contact their airlines directly to make the appropriate changes.
• As is always our practice, we screen all guests before they board and anyone who feels unwell with gastrointestinal or flu-like symptoms (fever over 100.4º F, chills, cough or difficulty breathing) will not be permitted to sail.
• If your cruise includes a stop in Nassau or Castaway Cay, please note that The Bahamas will not allow anyone to disembark in any Bahamian port if they have been to China in the past 20 days prior to arrival. These guests may be able to sail but will be unable to visit The Bahamas.
• If your cruise includes a stop in Jamaica, please note that in addition to the locations noted above, officials there also will not allow guests who have visited Singapore within 14 days of arrival to come ashore. These guests may be able to sail but will be unable to visit Jamaica.

If any of these situations apply to you, please contact us at 1-866-325-2112 or 407-566-3510 so that we can discuss your options.

 

[Niclovesdisney]

Does this mean that anyone from Italy is unable to board or just from the affected part of Italy? We are doing the first Mediterranean cruise in May and I know there is still time for things to change but I can’t see

 

[MarkLT1]

The data is readily available as to how many have contracted the virus at this point and how many fatalities there have been.

Absolutely. So lets look at the current numbers then. There are two ways to calculate the mortality rate case-fatality rate (thanks for the correction @SirDuff). Died/Infected and Died/(Died+Recovered). If we take today's current numbers, Died/Infected is 2933/85680, which is 3.4%. If we calculate the other way, we get 2933/(2933+39746), which is 6.9%. A typical seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1-0.2%. Sticking with the lower number of case-fatality, It is my "opinion" that 3.4% vs 0.1% is a factor of about 34x the mortality rate over the flu. It is further my opinion that a bug that potentially has 34x the mortality rate of the flu is a bit more concerning than the flu itself.

 

[freshmanjs]

You are actually the one spreading lies, not me. The data is readily available as to how many have contracted the virus at this point and how many fatalities there have been. If anything there has been underreporting of how many have contracted the virus.

And you seem to have some anger management issues. I am not sure what you mean about Rush, but I am assuming that is some kind of an insult.

As the other poster pointed out, the readily available data says the opposite of what you are saying. My daughter is immune compromised. It is very dangerous for her to get the flu, let alone something 34x more likely to cause death. If she gets this because people don't take it seriously, she may not survive it. So, yes, I'm angry when people say it's a "cold" without any evidence whatsoever.

What lie did I spread exactly?

 

[Gentry2004]

Does this mean that anyone from Italy is unable to board or just from the affected part of Italy? We are doing the first Mediterranean cruise in May and I know there is still time for things to change but I can’t see

It says "Italy." Seems pretty straightforward. Will be interesting to see what happens to the Magic this summer.

 

[Karin1984]

Does this mean that anyone from Italy is unable to board or just from the affected part of Italy? We are doing the first Mediterranean cruise in May and I know there is still time for things to change but I can’t see

With this new update, it would not surprise me if they cancel all mediterrean cruises and only focus on British Islands, Nordic and Baltic cruises. It really depends on how this is going to evolve and no one can guess now what the Magic will do this Summer.

 

[Gentry2004]

With this new update, it would surprise me if they cancel all mediterrean cruises and only focus on British Islands, Nordic and Baltic cruises. It really depends on how this is going to evolve and no one can guess now what the Magic will do this Summer.

You meant "not surprise" you, right? It wouldn't surprise me either.

 

[Karin1984]

You meant "not surprise" you, right? It wouldn't surprise me either.

Oops, yes you are right, 'not surprise.'

 

[Niclovesdisney]

It says "Italy." Seems pretty straightforward. Will be interesting to see what happens to the Magic this summer.

Thanks for your reply. I’m beginning to wonder if the Magic will even come over too. Would like to be a fly on the wall behind the scenes to know what they are planning.

 

[DisneYE]

Just received the following DCL e-mail:

On Thursday we sent you an email about your upcoming cruise vacation and the proactive steps we are taking in regard to Coronavirus Disease 2019.

As we mentioned was possible, information continues to evolve and today public health officials have issued additional travel guidance and some of our ports of call have provided further information regarding who they will allow into their ports based on travel history. Therefore, the following updated guidelines are in effect and may continue to evolve as more information becomes available:

• Any guest or crew member who has traveled from, to or through China, including Hong Kong and Macau, South Korea, Italy, Iran or Japan, within 14 days of their sailing's departure will not be able to board our ships.
• Any guest who has been in contact with someone from these areas, including guests with connecting flights in these locations, also will not be able to board, nor will anyone who has helped care for someone suspected or diagnosed with coronavirus, or who is currently subject to health monitoring for possible exposure. Guests who have air travel booked through Disney Cruise Line will automatically have their flights rebooked on an alternate route. Guests who booked their own air travel arrangements should contact their airlines directly to make the appropriate changes.
• As is always our practice, we screen all guests before they board and anyone who feels unwell with gastrointestinal or flu-like symptoms (fever over 100.4º F, chills, cough or difficulty breathing) will not be permitted to sail.
• If your cruise includes a stop in Nassau or Castaway Cay, please note that The Bahamas will not allow anyone to disembark in any Bahamian port if they have been to China in the past 20 days prior to arrival. These guests may be able to sail but will be unable to visit The Bahamas.
• If your cruise includes a stop in Jamaica, please note that in addition to the locations noted above, officials there also will not allow guests who have visited Singapore within 14 days of arrival to come ashore. These guests may be able to sail but will be unable to visit Jamaica.

If any of these situations apply to you, please contact us at 1-866-325-2112 or 407-566-3510 so that we can discuss your options.

Got this email as well
My guess is if the situation deteriorates further, if more cases start popping up in the US, especially in FL, DCL will start cancelling cruises.
The next email we get might be announcing a (some) cancelation(s)
I really hope I'm wrong.

 

[SirDuff]

Absolutely. So lets look at the current numbers then. There are two ways to calculate the mortality rate. Died/Infected and Died/(Died+Recovered). If we take today's current numbers, Died/Infected is 2933/85680, which is 3.4%. If we calculate the other way, we get 2933/(2933+39746), which is 6.9%. A typical seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1-0.2%. Sticking with the lower number, It is my "opinion" that 3.4% vs 0.1% is a factor of about 34x the mortality rate over the flu. It is further my opinion that a bug that potentially has 34x the mortality rate of the flu is a bit more concerning than the flu itself.

Actually, those are estimates of case-fatality rate, not mortality rate.

It is also my opinion (epidemiologist working at the WHO) that the infected numbers are a severe underestimate. In some ways this is good since it means that the case-fatality rate is lower. In some ways this is bad because having many people with virus who don’t know that they have the virus makes containment much more difficult.

I do agree with you that no data that I have seen suggests that this has a lower case-fatality rate than influenza. It, perhaps, has a lower mortality rate at this point, but only because (at this point) far fewer people have the disease (at least, based on our best estimates).

 

[freshmanjs]

Got this email as well
My guess is if the situation deteriorates further, if more cases start popping up in the US, especially in FL, DCL will start cancelling cruises.
The next email we get might be announcing a (some) cancelation(s)
I really hope I'm wrong.

We're supposed to sail on Fantasy next Saturday, March 7. I'm kind of hoping they do cancel, or at least allow postponement without penalty. I'm not particularly worried about getting sick on the ship, but worried about panic / quarantine / refused port entry. Just doesn't seem like a great time to go and have a relaxing vacation on a cruise ship.

 

[Gentry2004]

We're supposed to sail on Fantasy next Saturday, March 7. I'm kind of hoping they do cancel, or at least allow postponement without penalty. I'm not particularly worried about getting sick on the ship, but worried about panic / quarantine / refused port entry. Just doesn't seem like a great time to go and have a relaxing vacation on a cruise ship.

This is what I'm worried about too. Sailing in little over a month.

 

[MarkLT1]

Actually, those are estimates of case-fatality rate, not mortality rate.

It is also my opinion (epidemiologist working at the WHO) that the infected numbers are a severe underestimate. In some ways this is good since it means that the case-fatality rate is lower. In some ways this is bad because having many people with virus who don’t know that they have the virus makes containment much more difficult.

I do agree with you that no data that I have seen suggests that this has a lower case-fatality rate than influenza. It, perhaps, has a lower mortality rate at this point, but only because (at this point) far fewer people have the disease (at least, based on our best estimates).

Thank you for the clarification. I spent a year or so in grad school, working with a group modeling pandemics (my background is in engineering systems risk assessment, and we were applying our systems/engineering risk modeling tools to traditional pandemic modeling techniques). The R0 numbers, and long incubation were always the two biggest factors that drove global spread, and the values being reported for COVID were inline with the high/bad-outcome models we saw. Unfortunately, I must not have gotten my vocabulary completely correct, as the epidemiology research group we were working with always referred to those calculations as "mortality rate" as they would plug directly into what we called "failure rate" parameters in engineering systems.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Absolutely. So lets look at the current numbers then. There are two ways to calculate the mortality rate. Died/Infected and Died/(Died+Recovered). If we take today's current numbers, Died/Infected is 2933/85680, which is 3.4%. If we calculate the other way, we get 2933/(2933+39746), which is 6.9%. A typical seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1-0.2%. Sticking with the lower number, It is my "opinion" that 3.4% vs 0.1% is a factor of about 34x the mortality rate over the flu. It is further my opinion that a bug that potentially has 34x the mortality rate of the flu is a bit more concerning than the flu itself.

I am not sure about your data. What is your source?
Here is a good article from a medical data analytics company out of Amsterdam. There is also other good information on this site.

https://www.elsevier.com/connect/6-of-the-most-common-coronavirus-questions-the-media-is-asking

 

[DisneYE]

We're supposed to sail on Fantasy next Saturday, March 7. I'm kind of hoping they do cancel, or at least allow postponement without penalty. I'm not particularly worried about getting sick on the ship, but worried about panic / quarantine / refused port entry. Just doesn't seem like a great time to go and have a relaxing vacation on a cruise ship.

We sail a day before you, on the 6th, from NOLA, on the Wonder.
I sort of feel the same: Not worried about the virus or the ports, but potentially being stuck inside the ship/SR on a quarantine. Also, flying in a narrow metal tube with ppl that could be sick or have been in one of the hot zones.
I hate going on holiday with this level of anxiety and stress..