Universal buys 100 acres of land

[MichelinMan]

I wonder what Busch’s attendance has been like. I never really consider it in my thoughts about the theme park scene because it’s way down in Tampa

Might be different for us folks from the UK who tend to have longer vacations. My first trip to Florida, we did Busch Gardens, as well as Cypress Gardens (now Legoland) and also Silver Springs.

The last time we went, we didn't have time to get to any of those, because of the newer attractions at Disney, Universal and SeaWorld.

Thinking about it even more, I would say that Legoland may also be at risk - although I guess there is a bit of USP for US based people (we have a Legoland in the UK already, which means it doesn't really have much appeal to me, as I've done it to death already).

 

[KenHutch]

2026, Pooh wasn't a "work for hire," so it's 70 years after A.A. Milne's passing. But Disney will have successfully lobbied for an extension long before then.

They already are and will in all likelihood be getting it.

 

[KenHutch]

I really do wonder what Disney will do after Universal does make it official. Will they finally green light a 5th park maybe use their big hammer i.e. their superheroes to try and totally outshine Universals next park?

 

[Firebird060]

Would rather it be the old rumour villians park than Marvel. There is still that whole Marvel agreement that Disney would have to litigate. Comcast and Disney have deep pockets so if Disney did ever try to really litigate the ability to use Marvel IE the Avengers east of the Miss it would be a costly fight... Hense why i would prefer a villains gate

 

[rteetz]

I really do wonder what Disney will do after Universal does make it official. Will they finally green light a 5th park maybe use their big hammer i.e. their superheroes to try and totally outshine Universals next park?

I don’t see Disney doing a 5th gate. Orlando doesn’t have enough workers and they would cannabilize attendance at existing parks.

 

[KenHutch]

I don’t see Disney doing a 5th gate. Orlando doesn’t have enough workers and they would cannabilize attendance at existing parks.

A good point but I also don't see Disney just standing still either as a competitor tries to steal a chunk of their business. Ah well either way time will tell.

 

[rteetz]

A good point but I also don't see Disney just standing still either as a competitor tries to steal a chunk of their business. Ah well either way time will tell.

Disney won’t sit and do nothing but I don’t think the answer is fifth gate.

 

[Princess_Lisa]

Would rather it be the old rumour villians park than Marvel. There is still that whole Marvel agreement that Disney would have to litigate. Comcast and Disney have deep pockets so if Disney did ever try to really litigate the ability to use Marvel IE the Avengers east of the Miss it would be a costly fight... Hense why i would prefer a villains gate

Build it on the original Discovery Island and theme it after the "The Isle of the Lost" in Descendants. If they could somehow create a magical bridge ride between it and Fantasyland at MK (PH or AP required to ride like Universal's HP "Train") that would be Amazeballs.

I don’t see Disney doing a 5th gate. Orlando doesn’t have enough workers and they would cannabilize attendance at existing parks.

I don't necessarily agree with the cannibalizing other parks part. This is probably true for some guests, but I could see those who do 4 days (1 per park) now, adding an extra day or getting PHs. Also, they might do this instead of a Universal day (win-win for Disney) or less Universal days. If Universal adds a 3rd gate (VB doesn't count), more people will want to mix in some Universal days and a 5th gate could help keep them at Disney.

 

[rteetz]

I don't necessarily agree. This is probably true for some guests, but I could see those who do 4 days (1 per park) now, adding an extra day or getting PHs. Also, they might do this instead of a Universal day (win-win for Disney) or less Universal days. If Universal adds a 3rd gate (VB doesn't count), more people will want to mix in some Universal days and a 5th gate could help keep them at Disney.

People have limited vacation days. You are going for 5-7 days on average to WDW most likely. Add a fifth gate and that takes guests away from the existing parks. Most people don’t have time or money to add extra days. I think the employment issue is the biggest.

 

[Phicinfan]

Disney won’t sit and do nothing but I don’t think the answer is fifth gate.

I would argue the response has already started. Disney is adding to MK, EPCOT, DHS and added Pandora to AK. By all reports while this is mostly for 50th coming, its also IMO response to what is coming from Universal.

I also think we will see some more added to WDW once 50th has passed. Due to huge influx of money for all the 50th visitors. And SWL opening ;D

 

[Firebird060]

Employment is a great point, but heck Disney loves the cheap labor of the college program, as much as I hate to say it, the fact that Disney turns away so many to the College program, means they do have a willing and large workforce. I am not going to debate the need for permanent workers to train and lead vs the temp status of the College program. Universal doesnt have a College program that is why they are offering a bit more in pay and in some cases both parks offer signing bonuses. What I will say is that yes your average US guest does come for about a week your International about 2 weeks, but money here is less of the issue. Disney has always worked on the whole," we dont care what it costs the guest they will find a way". Since taking your kids to Disney is now something more pushed upon as being norm in families and thus puts pressure on parents to do so, I dont see the extra cost of lets say 10 to 20 percent visiting a extra park as being the determining factor for a large number of families. A fifth gate is a possibility as long as Disney feels they can get people to visit it. Labor issues are a valid point but cost to guests sadly isnt a largely worried about problem to Disney. Profit margin is and sadly Disney might feel a new park might just be enough to get the once in a lifetime family feel there is enough changes to become a twice in a lifetime family. Which means more money, to the Disney Bubble

 

[rteetz]

Employment is a great point, but heck Disney loves the cheap labor of the college program, as much as I hate to say it, the fact that Disney turns away so many to the College program, means they do have a willing and large workforce. I am not going to debate the need for permanent workers to train and lead vs the temp status of the College program. Universal doesnt have a College program that is why they are offering a bit more in pay and in some cases both parks offer signing bonuses. What I will say is that yes your average US guest does come for about a week your International about 2 weeks, but money here is less of the issue. Disney has always worked on the whole," we dont care what it costs the guest they will find a way". Since taking your kids to Disney is now something more pushed upon as being norm in families and thus puts pressure on parents to do so, I dont see the extra cost of lets say 10 to 20 percent visiting a extra park as being the determining factor for a large number of families. A fifth gate is a possibility as long as Disney feels they can get people to visit it. Labor issues are a valid point but cost to guests sadly isnt a largely worried about problem to Disney. Profit margin is and sadly Disney might feel a new park might just be enough to get the once in a lifetime family feel there is enough changes to become a twice in a lifetime family. Which means more money, to the Disney Bubble

Disney does love the college program but they aren’t going to staff an entire new park with that. They would also have to build more housing for those DCPs. Universal is even going to struggle a bit getting team members for their third gate.

 

[Princess_Lisa]

Disney does love the college program but they aren’t going to staff an entire new park with that. They would also have to build more housing for those DCPs. Universal is even going to struggle a bit getting team members for their third gate.

If Disney would pay their CMs a living wage (they certainly aren't hurting for money), they could find enough workers. Even with unemployment around 3-4%, there are still a lot of folks who need a job. Based on official numbers from the state, there were 56,922 unemployed persons in the 5 closest counties (Osceola, Orange, Lake, Polk, and Seminole) in March. I can't imagine it takes anywhere near that many to staff a 5th gate. I'm sure they could also get people to move from slightly farther away to the Orlando area for decent paying jobs. They could certainly get a lot of service workers to jump ship from other companies if the pay was right.

http://www.floridajobs.org/labor-ma...l-programs/local-area-unemployment-statistics

 

[rteetz]

If Disney would pay their CMs a living wage (they certainly aren't hurting for money), they could find enough workers. Even with unemployment around 3-4%, there are still a lot of folks who need a job. Based on official numbers from the state, there were 56,922 unemployed persons in the 5 closest counties (Osceola, Orange, Lake, Polk, and Seminole) in March. I can't imagine it takes anywhere near that many to staff a 5th gate. I'm sure they could also get people to move from slightly farther away to the Orlando area for decent paying jobs. They could certainly get a lot of service workers to jump ship from other companies if the pay was right.

http://www.floridajobs.org/labor-ma...l-programs/local-area-unemployment-statistics

View attachment 319349

Not everyone wants to work in a theme park or for Disney for that matter. I don't want to bring wage negotiations into this but of course that is part of it. If Disney wants to spend money to build another gate they aren't going to want to spend even more to pay workers more.

 

[DisFanDad]

I would argue the response has already started. Disney is adding to MK, EPCOT, DHS and added Pandora to AK. By all reports while this is mostly for 50th coming, its also IMO response to what is coming from Universal.

I also think we will see some more added to WDW once 50th has passed. Due to huge influx of money for all the 50th visitors. And SWL opening ;D

I generally agree with rteetz here regarding a 5th gate, the only real way I could see this happening is if they went after the Universal crowd, those people (many who I know) are "aging out" of Disney world, to whom Universal with its larger slate of Action / Thrill rides seems to appeal.

But then, Disney could (and perhaps is) accomplish(ing) this by simply adding more such attractions to the existing parks, FOP, Tron, .... BUT, they need to do more if that is their plan. People still do age out of WDW unfortunately. But a 5th gate thrill park I could see as not harming current parks, and directly harming Uni.

Don't think it will happen though.

 

[Lee Matthews]

I really don't think there will ever be a 5th park

 

[wareagle57]

It's not that I don't agree with the cannibalization argument, that would definitely happen. It's that I don't see that part as a bad thing. In fact I see it as a solution and a good thing. The parks are far too crowded. The parks were profitable years ago when the crowds were lower than we could ever dream of today. And that was in the age before dessert parties within hard ticket events and all the various other upsell opportunities that are shoved down our throats. So I don't see why it would be that bad to have the crowds spread between 5 parks. I see how it wouldn't make them more money because they aren't getting people to stay longer. But the parks are less crowded and so people enjoy it more. Plus the draw of the 5th gate keeps them away from Universal, so while it may not increase attendance and profits, it helps curb the loss of the theme park pie. The employment is definitely a concern however. And if Universal keeps opening more parks, won't they create that problem for Disney anyway?

 

[sachilles]

No real need to create a 5th gate, when you have the ability to add substantially to the other 4 gates you have. People will not take longer vacations because you have a 5th gate. Far more economical to split all of the resources you'd put into a 5th gate, dividing them into the 4 existing parks.

When you run out of expansion area, then maybe a 5th gate....if you don't flatten old stuff and start over.

 

[rteetz]

I think another reason you don't see a 5th gate is because then Disney would stop updating the existing 4 for at least a few years. Look how long WDW had stagnated already. The existing parks are not perfect by any means and several improvements need to be made. Epcot and even DHS post Star Wars will still need work. Put a 5th gate in the mix and that takes 2+ billion from investments of the existing parks.

 

[jknezek]

I think another reason you don't see a 5th gate is because then Disney would stop updating the existing 4 for at least a few years. Look how long WDW had stagnated already. The existing parks are not perfect by any means and several improvements need to be made. Epcot and even DHS post Star Wars will still need work. Put a 5th gate in the mix and that takes 2+ billion from investments of the existing parks.

I don't think this can be understated. I firmly believe the investment in FastPass+ was a huge reason why other investments in the park stagnated for so long. We talk about budgets all the time. Fastpass+ sucked up a ton of it for a long time and, according to someone I know who worked on it, it's still a long way from what it could have been had it been done right.

Building another gate? Forget about anything being done in the 4 existing parks for at least 3-5 years, most likely more like 5-7 years. And the Parks right now are not in a state where that can happen. We know it, Disney knows it, Universal knows it. Disney has work to do, especially at EPCOT. It simply can't be ignored after the 50th for half a decade after this building spurt comes to a close.

I expect that in the 2020s we'll see a significant part of Futureworld redone. I expect we'll see a thrill ride for the Adventureland side of MK at least announced. This will be needed to balance out crowds. I expect DHS will get a mini-makeover in the Animation Courtyard and that Star Tours/Indiana Jones area will get enhanced and most likely completely redone. I think AK will get at least one more ride, possibly a small land. None of that touches on the 2 waterparks, which I think will also see some smaller investment.

Disney has to invest in and reinvent what they have. They won't do that and build a whole new gate.