BabybetterDisney
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 14, 2018
1. The coronavirus is here to stay. Even if we get through the next week, the next month it will still be there next year. Even if we recover now, we’ll catch it again in a few months or years. Even if we have mild symptoms the first time we catch it, we might have severe symptoms the next time, or die.
2. There will be no vaccine or drug against the coronavirus, just like there was never a vaccine against colds. The human body doesn’t develop a proper immunity against colds. That’s why we catch the same cold again and again within a short time, sometimes mild and sometimes nasty. I’ve had colds that lasted a month and I felt like I was dying. This time, I just might.
3. The coronavirus spreads by air and spreads asymptomatically. For many weeks, medical experts in Seattle did not notice that it was spreading in their community. That’s extremely insidious. That means countries such as China, Taiwan, South Korea or Singapore are just buying a few months with their quarantines or extensive testing. How long is China going to stay cut off from the world? And even then, the virus will blow up in these countries at some point. You can‘t lock up a virus forever, it will sneak in and sneak around.
4. They is no flattening the curve by containment. Flattening the curve is when you do controlled burn: mark out one region and spread the virus there on purpose, gather all the medical person and resources there, fight through with concentrated effort, then do the next region until the whole country is covered. Containment is not flattening the curve, it’s pushing the curve back. You are borrowing from the future: you look pretty good now until it blows up in your face. Containment works if there is reason to believe the virus will go away in time, like a hurricane, or if a vaccine or cure can be developed in time. To wait for the vaccine, containment has to last a year or more, and the epidemic would have peaked by then.
5. Everybody WILL catch the coronavirus. The question is now or later, later meaning a few months later, depending on your country’s approach or your location. You may catch it but not know it because you have no symptoms or because your country doesn’t test. A couple of weeks ago, DH got sick with a fever. He was laid up for a week, in bed with body aches, nausea, dizziness, and lack of appetite. Eventually he got better and went back to work, according to CDC guidelines, even though he wasn’t 100% recovered. My state doesn’t test you until you are dying or something, so DH never got tested.
6. The mathematical models I’ve seen showing herd immunity are wrong. They show dots of people bumping around locally, eventually being protected by herd immunity when everybody around them are infected and immune, around 70% of the population. Such a model might have been true 30 years ago, but it isn’t the case nowadays at all. People don’t just stay in one spot and interact with local people. If you live in a crowded community such as NYC or Hong Kong, you come into close proximity of hundreds and thousands of people every single day. Even a 99% immunity around you isn’t near good enough. And if you live in a rural community, people there still go out of state or country at times, and there are tourists from all over.
6.5 The only community that can enjoy herd immunity is the kind Mater lives in, which is bypassed by the interstate and the only people that visit are those who get there by accident, such as Lightning McQueen. And the only people who can avoid the coronavirus completely are people like Elsa, who lives permanently in a big house by herself in the middle of nowhere, with no servants and no need to go to town for supplies.
7. The nursing homes are now blocked from visitors, which is helpful but not forever. They have a constant change of staff: caretakers, janitors, it’s only a matter of time. My local grocery stores are having special hours for seniors. Again, helpful in the short run, but not a secured situation. Like the N95 masks. They block off 95% of airborn particles. What about the other 5%? Viruses can multiply. In fact, that‘s all they can do; they are not alive otherwise. It only takes one virus to turn into a million in a short time.
8. We are currently under a lockdown during which people are too scared to venture out. But eventually, after a few weeks, they will get tired of the isolation and inactivity and get out. DH went back to work a week after his fever subsided, as the CDC directed, even though he was still weak. He just couldn’t take it staying home anymore. He drove off without knowing where he was going. Right now fear is keeping us home, but as time goes on, fear will wear off such that even though the threat is no less, people will justify leaving the lockdown. Or maybe they can’t help it, they are just not the type to be locked up, they’d rather die. DH is one of those, and I am fully expecting him to catch the virus at some point and spread it to me - if I don’t catch it first. And after we catch it the first time and if we live through it, we’ll catch it again in months or years, like we do colds, until it kills us. Or maybe the virus will kill at a much lower after it has killed off all the ones it can the first round, being that those who survived are more difficult to kill, the death rate will go down to look like another flu statistic and not as creepy.
9. There is also a possibility that if a person catches the coronavirus, he will build up enough immunity such that even if he catches it again, his limited immunity will make the illness less severe so that he doesn’t die. For example, let’s say a person catches coronavirus when he’s young and has only mild symptoms. Years later, when he’s old and has heart problems and more susceptible, he catches the coronavirus again. His immunity may then be enough to save him from the death that he would have suffered if he hadn’t caught the virus in his youth.
10. The Asian countries are looking smug right now as they watch the West burn at its hottest point, but the West will be through it in a few months. If a country has perfect lockdown so that no virus sneaks in, then they must stay this perfectly locked for years, or forever if no vaccine can be found. If they ever open up, they will die like the American Indians when the Europeans first came to America. As time goes on, as the other countries recover from the coronavirus and life goes back to normal, there will be more and more pressure and desire for the locked countries to open up. The virus will not look as threatening, and the determination to hide will fade and give in to the yearning to be free.
11. It is unlikely that a vaccine can be developed to prevent the coronavirus, but it might be possible for a vaccine to reduce or eliminate the death rate by creating an imperfect immunity in the body. It is also unlikely that a cure can be found, given that no cure has been found for any virus yet.
12. Hiding from the coronavirus may still be a reasonable approach because it may reduce the infectious dose. Say if the first time you catch the coronavirus, you only catch 5 of them. After a few days, they turn into 5 million viruses. In the mean time, your body creates 10 million antibodies, who go ahead and kill all 5 million viruses such that you don’t even feel anything wrong. Let’s say during this time, your friend with the same immunity as you catches 500 coronaviruses. After a few days, he also has 10 million antibodies, but he now has 500 million viruses, so his antibodies get overwhelmed and he’s down for a hard time. Though this theory might not work in practice, it’s worth a try. Research on the flu virus shows that people with a higher infectious dose end up with more severe flu symptoms. In short, you are creating your own vaccine, and it is one way that social distancing may be able to reduce the overall death rate and not just delay it.
13. According to WHO, temperatures of 140F to 150F are enough to kill most viruses. Most saunas run at temperatures between 150-175 degrees. That means if you get in a sauna every day for a few minutes, you can “disinfect” your nose, windpipe and lungs daily. It takes time for the virus to dig into your throat or lungs, so if you do this everyday, you can kill the virus before they get in too deep. Or maybe kill some of them at least, to reduce your infectious dose and therefore your symptom severity. I have no proof that this will work, this is just a theory of mine.
Unrelated note: My brother in law recently passed away at 76. He wrote his own epitaph. It reads: “I took all the pills - and died anyway.” His name is Jim. If any Disney CM wants to add that to Haunted Mansion tombstones, please feel free.
2. There will be no vaccine or drug against the coronavirus, just like there was never a vaccine against colds. The human body doesn’t develop a proper immunity against colds. That’s why we catch the same cold again and again within a short time, sometimes mild and sometimes nasty. I’ve had colds that lasted a month and I felt like I was dying. This time, I just might.
3. The coronavirus spreads by air and spreads asymptomatically. For many weeks, medical experts in Seattle did not notice that it was spreading in their community. That’s extremely insidious. That means countries such as China, Taiwan, South Korea or Singapore are just buying a few months with their quarantines or extensive testing. How long is China going to stay cut off from the world? And even then, the virus will blow up in these countries at some point. You can‘t lock up a virus forever, it will sneak in and sneak around.
4. They is no flattening the curve by containment. Flattening the curve is when you do controlled burn: mark out one region and spread the virus there on purpose, gather all the medical person and resources there, fight through with concentrated effort, then do the next region until the whole country is covered. Containment is not flattening the curve, it’s pushing the curve back. You are borrowing from the future: you look pretty good now until it blows up in your face. Containment works if there is reason to believe the virus will go away in time, like a hurricane, or if a vaccine or cure can be developed in time. To wait for the vaccine, containment has to last a year or more, and the epidemic would have peaked by then.
5. Everybody WILL catch the coronavirus. The question is now or later, later meaning a few months later, depending on your country’s approach or your location. You may catch it but not know it because you have no symptoms or because your country doesn’t test. A couple of weeks ago, DH got sick with a fever. He was laid up for a week, in bed with body aches, nausea, dizziness, and lack of appetite. Eventually he got better and went back to work, according to CDC guidelines, even though he wasn’t 100% recovered. My state doesn’t test you until you are dying or something, so DH never got tested.
6. The mathematical models I’ve seen showing herd immunity are wrong. They show dots of people bumping around locally, eventually being protected by herd immunity when everybody around them are infected and immune, around 70% of the population. Such a model might have been true 30 years ago, but it isn’t the case nowadays at all. People don’t just stay in one spot and interact with local people. If you live in a crowded community such as NYC or Hong Kong, you come into close proximity of hundreds and thousands of people every single day. Even a 99% immunity around you isn’t near good enough. And if you live in a rural community, people there still go out of state or country at times, and there are tourists from all over.
6.5 The only community that can enjoy herd immunity is the kind Mater lives in, which is bypassed by the interstate and the only people that visit are those who get there by accident, such as Lightning McQueen. And the only people who can avoid the coronavirus completely are people like Elsa, who lives permanently in a big house by herself in the middle of nowhere, with no servants and no need to go to town for supplies.
7. The nursing homes are now blocked from visitors, which is helpful but not forever. They have a constant change of staff: caretakers, janitors, it’s only a matter of time. My local grocery stores are having special hours for seniors. Again, helpful in the short run, but not a secured situation. Like the N95 masks. They block off 95% of airborn particles. What about the other 5%? Viruses can multiply. In fact, that‘s all they can do; they are not alive otherwise. It only takes one virus to turn into a million in a short time.
8. We are currently under a lockdown during which people are too scared to venture out. But eventually, after a few weeks, they will get tired of the isolation and inactivity and get out. DH went back to work a week after his fever subsided, as the CDC directed, even though he was still weak. He just couldn’t take it staying home anymore. He drove off without knowing where he was going. Right now fear is keeping us home, but as time goes on, fear will wear off such that even though the threat is no less, people will justify leaving the lockdown. Or maybe they can’t help it, they are just not the type to be locked up, they’d rather die. DH is one of those, and I am fully expecting him to catch the virus at some point and spread it to me - if I don’t catch it first. And after we catch it the first time and if we live through it, we’ll catch it again in months or years, like we do colds, until it kills us. Or maybe the virus will kill at a much lower after it has killed off all the ones it can the first round, being that those who survived are more difficult to kill, the death rate will go down to look like another flu statistic and not as creepy.
9. There is also a possibility that if a person catches the coronavirus, he will build up enough immunity such that even if he catches it again, his limited immunity will make the illness less severe so that he doesn’t die. For example, let’s say a person catches coronavirus when he’s young and has only mild symptoms. Years later, when he’s old and has heart problems and more susceptible, he catches the coronavirus again. His immunity may then be enough to save him from the death that he would have suffered if he hadn’t caught the virus in his youth.
10. The Asian countries are looking smug right now as they watch the West burn at its hottest point, but the West will be through it in a few months. If a country has perfect lockdown so that no virus sneaks in, then they must stay this perfectly locked for years, or forever if no vaccine can be found. If they ever open up, they will die like the American Indians when the Europeans first came to America. As time goes on, as the other countries recover from the coronavirus and life goes back to normal, there will be more and more pressure and desire for the locked countries to open up. The virus will not look as threatening, and the determination to hide will fade and give in to the yearning to be free.
11. It is unlikely that a vaccine can be developed to prevent the coronavirus, but it might be possible for a vaccine to reduce or eliminate the death rate by creating an imperfect immunity in the body. It is also unlikely that a cure can be found, given that no cure has been found for any virus yet.
12. Hiding from the coronavirus may still be a reasonable approach because it may reduce the infectious dose. Say if the first time you catch the coronavirus, you only catch 5 of them. After a few days, they turn into 5 million viruses. In the mean time, your body creates 10 million antibodies, who go ahead and kill all 5 million viruses such that you don’t even feel anything wrong. Let’s say during this time, your friend with the same immunity as you catches 500 coronaviruses. After a few days, he also has 10 million antibodies, but he now has 500 million viruses, so his antibodies get overwhelmed and he’s down for a hard time. Though this theory might not work in practice, it’s worth a try. Research on the flu virus shows that people with a higher infectious dose end up with more severe flu symptoms. In short, you are creating your own vaccine, and it is one way that social distancing may be able to reduce the overall death rate and not just delay it.
13. According to WHO, temperatures of 140F to 150F are enough to kill most viruses. Most saunas run at temperatures between 150-175 degrees. That means if you get in a sauna every day for a few minutes, you can “disinfect” your nose, windpipe and lungs daily. It takes time for the virus to dig into your throat or lungs, so if you do this everyday, you can kill the virus before they get in too deep. Or maybe kill some of them at least, to reduce your infectious dose and therefore your symptom severity. I have no proof that this will work, this is just a theory of mine.
Unrelated note: My brother in law recently passed away at 76. He wrote his own epitaph. It reads: “I took all the pills - and died anyway.” His name is Jim. If any Disney CM wants to add that to Haunted Mansion tombstones, please feel free.
