The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[Sykes]

In the beginning sure, but long term no. There the first industry to tell 60% of the population you are not welcome.

Where are you getting 60%? As of today, in the US 49.4% of the total population and 58.6% of the population >=12 years old has had at least one dose (so presumably almost all of them will finish the regimen). It would still be a large number, but 60% sounds like hyperbole.

 

[kathi]

In the beginning sure, but long term no. There the first industry to tell 60% of the population you are not welcome.

In the beginning is what we are talking about with returning to sailing. Clearly it's not forever, but it gets paying passengers back on the ship.

 

[jerry557]

Where are you getting 60%? As of today, in the US 49.4% of the total population and 58.6% of the population >=12 years old has had at least one dose (so presumably almost all of them will finish the regimen). It would still be a large number, but 60% sounds like hyperbole.

Vaccine demand in the US continues to plummet. So getting to 70% or higher required for herd immunity will be very tough.

Then you run into a new problem next year....boosters. You will need to find a way to get everyone who is vaccinated to go back and get a booster. And that's going to be harder than you think. By next year the COVID numbers will be low and everything will be open. So there is not going to a rush as most people are going to let their guard down. Each year, about 45% of the population gets a flu shot. I don't see the COVID booster being much higher than that.

So yeah, if the cruise lines want to require vaccines, they will be turning half the population away. And they may be the only industry to do it. Airlines seem to be moving more against it, at least domestically. United just made an agreement with the pilots union that vaccines will NOT be required for pilots. So I doubt they will require it for passengers. It'll depend on what other countries require for travelers.

To say mandatory vaccines won't continue to drag on the tourism industry is being unrealistic. Cruises and international travel may have a much slower recovery.

 

[Sykes]

If boosters are necessary to effectively manage the disease then vaccine requirements for cruise ships will be more important, not less. More COVID outbreaks on board cruise ships would be catastrophic. The revenue contribution from the ~35% of vaccine hesitant people would be entirely negated by a handful of canceled cruises (or canceled seasons because a ship has an extended quarantine) because of outbreaks—the industry would be much better off slimming down, cutting capacity, and profitably catering exclusively to the vaccinated crowd if that were the case. Cruise ships are fundamentally different than airlines in that it is 4,000 people in very close quarters for days or weeks at a time for entirely leisure reasons, not 300 people for a max of ~18 hours that may have an essential reason to be there so it makes sense for them to behave differently.

I very much hope that the disease trajectory continues in a way that makes vaccine requirements totally obsolete for cruises. I actually think that there is a solid chance that we’ll get there. But that’s mutually exclusive to the scenario you describe where boosters are necessary to effectively manage the disease.

 

[DCLMP]

Where are you getting 60%? As of today, in the US 49.4% of the total population and 58.6% of the population >=12 years old has had at least one dose (so presumably almost all of them will finish the regimen). It would still be a large number, but 60% sounds like hyperbole.

In some states, the vaccination rate is 30%. If you add in kids the national rate is probably 40% or less. Add in the vaccinated parents that don't want to vaccinate their kids and you have a whole lot of people that cant cruise. Less than 5% of the population cruises every year to start with. Most people can't afford it and I'm sure that number is rising with everything people have been through over the last year.

I think cruise lines are going to have a bit of a challenge getting first-time cruisers over the next couple of years. The die-hards like ourselves will be back.

 

[orum]

I very much hope that the disease trajectory continues in a way that makes vaccine requirements totally obsolete for cruises. I actually think that there is a solid chance that we’ll get there. But that’s mutually exclusive to the scenario you describe where boosters are necessary to effectively manage the disease.

I thought this was an interesting look at the current trajectory in the US when you look at cases compared to unvaccinated people. What I am not sure of is if the case number includes any vaccinated patients. (It appears it does not.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ated-people/?no_nav=true&tid=a_classic-iphone

 

[Sykes]

If you add in kids the national rate is probably 40% or less. Add in the vaccinated parents that don't want to vaccinate their kids and you have a whole lot of people that cant cruise.

I'm still not following. As of today yesterday, 49.4% of the total US population (of all ages), has had at least one dose of the vaccine, so at a bare minimum it's safe to assume that the vaccination rate is at least 49.4%. In reality, it's a fair bit higher than that if you include people that intend to get the vaccine but haven't (or can't) yet (0.3% of the population per day has been getting their first dose). It can't be 40% or less unless you include a bunch of assumptions about future booster vaccination rates, or you think a bunch of people that got one shot won't complete the regimen (but even then, 39.5% of the total US population is already fully vaccinated, so that'll go above 40% too).

 

[DCLMP]

Vaccine demand in the US continues to plummet. So getting to 70% or higher required for herd immunity will be very tough.

Then you run into a new problem next year....boosters. You will need to find a way to get everyone who is vaccinated to go back and get a booster. And that's going to be harder than you think. By next year the COVID numbers will be low and everything will be open. So there is not going to a rush as most people are going to let their guard down. Each year, about 45% of the population gets a flu shot. I don't see the COVID booster being much higher than that.

So yeah, if the cruise lines want to require vaccines, they will be turning half the population away. And they may be the only industry to do it. Airlines seem to be moving more against it, at least domestically. United just made an agreement with the pilots union that vaccines will NOT be required for pilots. So I doubt they will require it for passengers. It'll depend on what other countries require for travelers.

To say mandatory vaccines won't continue to drag on the tourism industry is being unrealistic. Cruises and international travel may have a much slower recovery.

Don't you think the millions that have had covid will contribute to herd immunity? My whole workplace had covid about 30 of us including myself. Only a couple of my co-workers have gotten vaxed. My coworker's mother-in-law had a seizure and a full cardiac arrest 20 minutes after the vaccine. She survived. One of my co-workers that got it last week's arm swelled up like a watermelon. My DH had a coworker die of a heart attack the day after the vax. There's no way of knowing if it's related.

In fairness, most people don't have reactions, but it seems like everyone I know knows somebody that had some kind of reaction even if it's mild. I think it's going to be a hard sell as covid numbers go down and the benefit of the vaccine isn't greater than the risk.

 

[DCLMP]

I'm still not following. As of today yesterday, 49.4% of the total US population (of all ages), has had at least one dose of the vaccine, so at a bare minimum it's safe to assume that the vaccination rate is at least 49.4%. It can't be 40% or less unless you include a bunch of assumptions about future boosters vaccination rates, or that you think a bunch of people that got one shot won't complete the regimen. In reality, it's a fair bit higher than that if you include people that intend to get the vaccine but haven't (or can't) yet (0.3% of the population per day has been getting their first dose).

Ok, so you eliminate 50% of the population, not 60. That's still doesn't seem like a good business model. It's not like that 50% are all going to run out and book a cruise.

 

[elle21]

Don't you think the millions that have had covid will contribute to herd immunity? My whole workplace had covid about 30 of us including myself. Only a couple of my co-workers have gotten vaxed. My coworker's mother-in-law had a seizure and a full cardiac arrest 20 minutes after the vaccine. She survived. One of my co-workers that got it last week's arm swelled up like a watermelon. My DH had a coworker die of a heart attack the day after the vax. There's no way of knowing if it's related.

In fairness, most people don't have reactions, but it seems like everyone I know knows somebody that had some kind of reaction even if it's mild. I think it's going to be a hard sell as covid numbers go down and the benefit of the vaccine isn't greater than the risk.

DH’s coworker (60 years old) died of multiple bloods clots and aneurism the day after getting the shot. The doctor even said it was from the shot.

 

[Mousequake]

This is going to sound snarky, but I truly do not intend it that way. I find it fascinating how there seem to be so many severe reactions after the vaccine among the population that seems to be the most resistant to the vaccine.

Conversely, I know of no one even remotely connected to me who has had anything beyond the standard common side effects. There have only been a handful of people in the entire large metro area where I live who have had to be hospitalized for anything vaccine-related. And yet almost every person I’m aware of who is resistant to the vaccine knows someone with a horrible side effect.

Im wondering if there’s a psychosomatic component to some of those reactions because they’re expecting something bad to happen.

 

[DCLMP]

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[DCLMP]

You are correct Mousequake it does sound snarky. Because you don't know somebody that had a reaction then it doesn't exist and we all must be crazy. Talk about gaslighting. There's is this thing called the VAERS report. You are welcome to look at it. You sound like the people that denied Covid existed.

 

[DCLMP]

DH’s coworker (60 years old) died of multiple bloods clots and aneurism the day after getting the shot. The doctor even said it was from the shot.

You must be psychosomatic to post that. LOL. This is why all the vaccine threads get shut down on cruise critic.

 

[HiStitch626]

So yeah, if the cruise lines want to require vaccines, they will be turning half the population away. And they may be the only industry to do it. Airlines seem to be moving more against it, at least domestically. United just made an agreement with the pilots union that vaccines will NOT be required for pilots. So I doubt they will require it for passengers. It'll depend on what other countries require for travelers.

Airlines don't transport people in the same way. A plane flying over the continental US can land in many places fairly quickly if there is a passenger emergency. Cruise ships have a much tougher time with that. If a COVID outbreak was traced to an aircraft, it can be taken out of service and cleaned thoroughly within hours. The same cannot be said for a large cruise ship.

According to CLIA, the majority of Americans have never been on a cruise (somewhere in the range of 75%), so if the 50% are in groups that have never cruised, and have no desire to cruise, that unvaccinated group may not be of concern to cruise lines.

 

[Freeman867]

You are correct Mousequake it does sound snarky. Because you don't know somebody that had a reaction then it doesn't exist and we all must be crazy. Talk about gaslighting. There's is this thing called the VAERS report. You are welcome to look at it. You sound like the people that denied Covid existed.

Most of what's going on with VAERS is completely coincidental. No connection at all to the vaccine. They're tracking trends there to research them if the data is there to do so, but in most cases there is absolutely no direct correlation to the vaccine itself. Anyone can report anything there, so take it with a grain of salt.

Directly from the VAERS website:

"
VAERS accepts and analyzes reports of possible health problems—also called “adverse events”—after vaccination. As an early warning system, VAERS cannot prove that a vaccine caused a problem. Specifically, a report to VAERS does not mean that a vaccine caused an adverse event. But VAERS can give CDC and FDA important information. If it looks as though a vaccine might be causing a problem, FDA and CDC will investigate further and take action if needed.
Anyone can submit a report to VAERS — healthcare professionals, vaccine manufacturers, and the general public. VAERS welcomes all reports, regardless of seriousness, and regardless of how likely the vaccine may have been to have caused the adverse event."

 

[DCLMP]

Airlines don't transport people in the same way. A plane flying over the continental US can land in many places fairly quickly if there is a passenger emergency. Cruise ships have a much tougher time with that. If a COVID outbreak was traced to an aircraft, it can be taken out of service and cleaned thoroughly within hours. The same cannot be said for a large cruise ship.

According to CLIA, the majority of Americans have never been on a cruise (somewhere in the range of 75%), so if the 50% are in groups that have never cruised, and have no desire to cruise, that unvaccinated group may not be of concern to cruise lines.

What if the 50% are in the percentage that have cruised?

 

[Mousequake]

You are correct Mousequake it does sound snarky. Because you don't know somebody that had a reaction then it doesn't exist and we all must be crazy. Talk about gaslighting. There's is this thing called the VAERS report. You are welcome to look at it. You sound like the people that denied Covid existed.

Where did I say that it doesn’t exist and you all must be crazy? Psychosomatic does not mean crazy. Psychosomatic illnesses are a very real phenomenon. Psychosomatic means that the reactions DID happen, but perhaps not for the reasons being attributed to them.

 

[DCLMP]

Where did I say that it doesn’t exist and you all must be crazy? Psychosomatic does not mean crazy. Psychosomatic illnesses are a very real phenomenon. Psychosomatic means that the reactions DID happen, but perhaps not for the reasons being attributed to them.

So somebody had a seizure and went into a cardiac arrest because they were psychosomatic. My friend's arm swelled because she was psychosomatic. Please that's a bit of stretch.

 

[HiStitch626]

What if the 50% are in the percentage that have cruised?

Incentive to get the vaccine, I guess, or plan vacations that don't involve cruising. A recent study out of Northwestern does show a correlation between lower income and vaccine resistance (I want to be clear that I am not impugning anyone's economic status here). Cruising is a relatively expensive mode of vacationing, so it seems less likely to me that the the unvaccinated 50% would be people choosing to cruise.