The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[tee11]

I think this will be key in all the decisions the cruising industry will have to make moving forward. They can't afford any outbreaks. It affects everything; including where the ship can dock once this occurs. And how many families would continuously be willing to spend 4-10+K per cruise when it's a real and commonly occurring scenario to have to quarantine in your cabin, while the ship deals with testing and contact tracing on a 3-7 day cruise, even if it would be "just" the kids? The laws, logistics, and challenges are very different from kids going to school.

Therefore, I think that your (DCLMP) notion that the cruising industry will have to "bend" to those Americans not willing to get vaccinated, or get their kids vaccinated, will turn out to be incorrect. They stand to lose much more cruising with unvaccinated unimmune passengers and outbreaks. Likewise, if you looked at where vaccinations are happening (cities vs. rural, etc. etc. ) I'm very surprised you'd come to the conclusion that your (too low) estimate of Americans who'll vaccinate their kids can't afford to cruise. Not to mention, the cruising industry is an international market, and they may shift their assets (and ships) to where it is safest *and* most profitable to operate for now.


P.S. Ideally, I'm for providing proof of post-infection immunity and negative test, or proof of vaccination and negative test. We are able to scrutinize (truly evaluate) immunity for other diseases, this should be the goal, as we learn more and more about this one.

It's so easy to see kids' clubs causing small outbreaks that seem like low numbers, but in the world of cruising, ANY are too much. Even if they are just exposed, do they end up quarantining in their rooms with their whole families? so messy. It took school districts months to figure out the logistics and rules.

 

[wideeyedwonder]

We will know soon enough what the cruise industry "will do", because it is fast becoming what the cruise industry "is now doing"...the US numbers continue to go down, at quite a nice rate, even with "re-opening", suggesting to me that a combination of vaccination efforts and natural ("getting and surviving COVID-19") immunity are having a major effect. This is moving much faster than many of us would have believed just 6 months ago.

 

[blabadie]

I think this will be key in all the decisions the cruising industry will have to make moving forward. They can't afford any outbreaks. It affects everything; including where the ship can dock once this occurs. And how many families would continuously be willing to spend 4-10+K per cruise when it's a real and commonly occurring scenario to have to quarantine in your cabin, while the ship deals with testing and contact tracing on a 3-7 day cruise, even if it would be "just" the kids? The laws, logistics, and challenges are very different from kids going to school.

Therefore, I think that your (DCLMP) notion that the cruising industry will have to "bend" to those Americans not willing to get vaccinated, or get their kids vaccinated, will turn out to be incorrect. They stand to lose much more cruising with unvaccinated unimmune passengers and outbreaks. Likewise, if you looked at where vaccinations are happening (cities vs. rural, etc. etc. ) I'm very surprised you'd come to the conclusion that your (too low) estimate of Americans who'll vaccinate their kids can't afford to cruise. Not to mention, the cruising industry is an international market, and they may shift their assets (and ships) to where it is safest *and* most profitable to operate for now.


P.S. Ideally, I'm for providing proof of post-infection immunity and negative test, or proof of vaccination and negative test. We are able to scrutinize (truly evaluate) immunity for other diseases, this should be the goal, as we learn more and more about this one.

I agree that the cruises stand to lose more than gain by allowing unvaccinated/non-immune passengers and increasing the risk of an outbreak. I can see the scientific argument for them allowing proof of vaccination OR proof of antibodies from recent infection, but my guess is that they won't want to deal with determining antibody threshold levels required for sailing. Instead, they will keep things simple and only accept vaccination as proof of immunity.

While virtually every parent I personally know is waiting a while before giving their kids the covid vaccine, I recognize there are also many parents in this country who will vaccinate their children ASAP. I could see a decrease in families with toddlers/babies cruising once vaccination is required for their age group, but I estimate there will still be plenty of fully vaccinated families to fill the ships.

 

[belle032]

Have you been on the pride. The Itinerars in Europe are Fantastic, but man that ship like you said is gaudy.
Carnival people seem to love it. You would hope every ship on every cruiseline is in pristine shape after not having passengers for over a year.

Disney has a big kid problem. It’s their bread and butter. Every time I’ve sailed on the Dream there were 1200 or more kids.
I could see them waiting until the CSO expires before setting sail. They can make their own rules after that. Hopefully. It’s allowed to expire.

I have not been on the Pride, but there might be a review on the 1st page of the Carnival vs. DCL thread that @mevelandry upkeeps! We were ready to book a sailing that had most of the port stops in Iceland followed by Northern Europe - it looked honestly amazing. (Supposed to do Alaska this year, then that in 2022, but not sure now!) Only downside is it's on the Legend, which might be similar to the Pride. Unfortunately, Europe isn't equipped to handle the newer, bigger ships, so we were willing to overlook the ship because the itinerary looked so perfect. Kind of similar when we sailed on the Disney Magic to the British Isles. I would have preferred a ship with more amenities & activities, but luckily, it was so port-intensive that it didn't matter as much.

Agree-DCL relies on families & kids obviously way more than other cruise lines. I could see them waiting out any CDC orders before announcing any decisions.

 

[tee11]

You're right about the fact that it's complicated to determine, and therefore I mentioned it as a future goal. It's not even a scientific argument presently, because we don't know the levels to strive for, and we don't routinely quantitively test for them yet here (other than in the research setting) But at some point, I imagine we will. Note: The currently widely available qualitative (simple yes/no) antibody test is not what I was referring to, it's not a strong indicator for several reasons.

I agree that the cruises stand to lose more than gain by allowing unvaccinated/non-immune passengers and increasing the risk of an outbreak. I can see the scientific argument for them allowing proof of vaccination OR proof of antibodies from recent infection, but my guess is that they won't want to deal with determining antibody threshold levels required for sailing. Instead, they will keep things simple and only accept vaccination as proof of immunity.

While virtually every parent I personally know is waiting a while before giving their kids the covid vaccine, I recognize there are also many parents in this country who will vaccinate their children ASAP. I could see a decrease in families with toddlers/babies cruising once vaccination is required for their age group, but I estimate there will still be plenty of fully vaccinated families to fill the ships.

 

[mevelandry]

Very good news:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-study-finds-tiny-number-of-vaccine-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-1.5441871

 

[sullivan.kscott]

I have not been on the Pride, but there might be a review on the 1st page of the Carnival vs. DCL thread that @mevelandry upkeeps! We were ready to book a sailing that had most of the port stops in Iceland followed by Northern Europe - it looked honestly amazing. (Supposed to do Alaska this year, then that in 2022, but not sure now!) Only downside is it's on the Legend, which might be similar to the Pride. Unfortunately, Europe isn't equipped to handle the newer, bigger ships, so we were willing to overlook the ship because the itinerary looked so perfect. Kind of similar when we sailed on the Disney Magic to the British Isles. I would have preferred a ship with more amenities & activities, but luckily, it was so port-intensive that it didn't matter as much.

Agree-DCL relies on families & kids obviously way more than other cruise lines. I could see them waiting out any CDC orders before announcing any decisions.

We sailed the Legend almost 10 years ago (). As long as they’ve kept up with her, she’s a wonderful ship!

 

[brentm77]

Very good news:https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...vaccine-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-1.5441871

I like good news. Here is some more (I haven't read the underlying study, so I don't know how accurate this article is):

Mild COVID-19 cases can lead to antibody protection for life

Researchers explain that initial reports claiming COVID antibodies fade away quickly after an infection did not have all the facts. Their findings reveal that although the number of immune cells making antibodies drops once the patient is healthy, they never totally go away.

“Last fall, there were reports that antibodies wane quickly after infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, and mainstream media interpreted that to mean that immunity was not long-lived,” says senior author Ali Ellebedy, PhD, an associate professor of pathology and immunology, medicine, and molecular microbiology, in a university release.

“But that’s a misinterpretation of the data. It’s normal for antibody levels to go down after acute infection, but they don’t go down to zero; they plateau. Here, we found antibody-producing cells in people 11 months after first symptoms. These cells will live and produce antibodies for the rest of people’s lives. That’s strong evidence for long-lasting immunity.”

To find out how long coronavirus immunity really lasts, Ellebedy and the team started collecting both blood and bone marrow samples from people who recovered from mild cases of COVID-19. Researchers gathered 77 participants who volunteered to give blood every three months starting a month after their infection. Only six of these patients needed hospitalization during their illness.

Eighteen participants also provided bone marrow samples seven to eight months after their infections. Five returned four months later to provide a second bone marrow sample — nearly one year after contracting COVID-19. For comparison, the team also collected bone marrow from 11 people who never had coronavirus.

The results reveal COVID antibodies in the blood dropped off quickly within a few months of clearing the virus. However, these antibodies did not disappear entirely, they leveled off and scientists still detected them in patients 11 months later.

Moreover, 15 of the bone marrow samples from coronavirus patients contained antibody-producing cells which target COVID-19. The bone marrow from the five patients who came back to give a second sample still had these cells present four months later. On the other hand, all 11 people who did not get COVID-19 did not have any of these antibody-producing cells in their bone marrow.

For COVID patients, researchers say there’s no reason to think these cells will ever leave the human body.

“People with mild cases of COVID-19 clear the virus from their bodies two to three weeks after infection, so there would be no virus driving an active immune response seven or 11 months after infection,” Ellebedy explains. “These cells are not dividing. They are quiescent, just sitting in the bone marrow and secreting antibodies. They have been doing that ever since the infection resolved, and they will continue doing that indefinitely.”

. . .

The team is now examining if people receiving the COVID-19 vaccine will enjoy the same long-lasting immunity. . .
______________________

It seems likely that, if the above study is accurate, we would see similar or better results with the vaccines. I know there is much talk from drug company CEO's about annual boosters, but I am still very skeptical of that claim. If anything, we simply don't know yet.

 

[DCLMP]

We sailed the Legend almost 10 years ago (). As long as they’ve kept up with her, she’s a wonderful ship!

It’s gotta a lot of naked statues and art work. On a positive note it has a guys and it’s 7k less than the Magic
I have the Mardi Gras booked next year. They always put the best ships in Florida.

 

[DCLMP]

I like good news. Here is some more (I haven't read the underlying study, so I don't know how accurate this article is):

Mild COVID-19 cases can lead to antibody protection for life

Researchers explain that initial reports claiming COVID antibodies fade away quickly after an infection did not have all the facts. Their findings reveal that although the number of immune cells making antibodies drops once the patient is healthy, they never totally go away.

“Last fall, there were reports that antibodies wane quickly after infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, and mainstream media interpreted that to mean that immunity was not long-lived,” says senior author Ali Ellebedy, PhD, an associate professor of pathology and immunology, medicine, and molecular microbiology, in a university release.

“But that’s a misinterpretation of the data. It’s normal for antibody levels to go down after acute infection, but they don’t go down to zero; they plateau. Here, we found antibody-producing cells in people 11 months after first symptoms. These cells will live and produce antibodies for the rest of people’s lives. That’s strong evidence for long-lasting immunity.”

To find out how long coronavirus immunity really lasts, Ellebedy and the team started collecting both blood and bone marrow samples from people who recovered from mild cases of COVID-19. Researchers gathered 77 participants who volunteered to give blood every three months starting a month after their infection. Only six of these patients needed hospitalization during their illness.

Eighteen participants also provided bone marrow samples seven to eight months after their infections. Five returned four months later to provide a second bone marrow sample — nearly one year after contracting COVID-19. For comparison, the team also collected bone marrow from 11 people who never had coronavirus.

The results reveal COVID antibodies in the blood dropped off quickly within a few months of clearing the virus. However, these antibodies did not disappear entirely, they leveled off and scientists still detected them in patients 11 months later.

Moreover, 15 of the bone marrow samples from coronavirus patients contained antibody-producing cells which target COVID-19. The bone marrow from the five patients who came back to give a second sample still had these cells present four months later. On the other hand, all 11 people who did not get COVID-19 did not have any of these antibody-producing cells in their bone marrow.

For COVID patients, researchers say there’s no reason to think these cells will ever leave the human body.

“People with mild cases of COVID-19 clear the virus from their bodies two to three weeks after infection, so there would be no virus driving an active immune response seven or 11 months after infection,” Ellebedy explains. “These cells are not dividing. They are quiescent, just sitting in the bone marrow and secreting antibodies. They have been doing that ever since the infection resolved, and they will continue doing that indefinitely.”

. . .

The team is now examining if people receiving the COVID-19 vaccine will enjoy the same long-lasting immunity. . .
______________________

Is seems likely that if the above study is accurate, we would see similar or better results with the vaccines. I know there is much talk from drug company CEO's about annual boosters, but I am still very skeptical of that claim. If anything, we simply don't know yet.

I thought the Covid vaccine didn’t have Covid in it. They also say you may not have antibodies after the shot.

 

[sabrecmc]

It's so nice to see all these reports of overall very good news coming out after a year of it seeming to get worse and worse.

 

[brentm77]

It’s gotta a lot of naked statues and art work. On a positive note...

That's not the positive note?

Much of the great art in this world fits that category.

 

[brentm77]

I thought the Covid vaccine didn’t have Covid in it.

It doesn't. I don't think I understand your point. It causes your cells to produce the protein spike, creating antibodies to the spike. There is no reason to believe those antibodies would fade any more quickly than from an actual infection, and the data supports that they do last as long so far.

They also say you may not have antibodies after the shot.

Only if something went wrong or you are immune compromised. That is the purpose of the shot and why it is so effective - it produces antibodies in most people.

 

[tink2424]

I like good news. Here is some more (I haven't read the underlying study, so I don't know how accurate this article is):

Mild COVID-19 cases can lead to antibody protection for life

Researchers explain that initial reports claiming COVID antibodies fade away quickly after an infection did not have all the facts. Their findings reveal that although the number of immune cells making antibodies drops once the patient is healthy, they never totally go away.

“Last fall, there were reports that antibodies wane quickly after infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, and mainstream media interpreted that to mean that immunity was not long-lived,” says senior author Ali Ellebedy, PhD, an associate professor of pathology and immunology, medicine, and molecular microbiology, in a university release.

“But that’s a misinterpretation of the data. It’s normal for antibody levels to go down after acute infection, but they don’t go down to zero; they plateau. Here, we found antibody-producing cells in people 11 months after first symptoms. These cells will live and produce antibodies for the rest of people’s lives. That’s strong evidence for long-lasting immunity.”

To find out how long coronavirus immunity really lasts, Ellebedy and the team started collecting both blood and bone marrow samples from people who recovered from mild cases of COVID-19. Researchers gathered 77 participants who volunteered to give blood every three months starting a month after their infection. Only six of these patients needed hospitalization during their illness.

Eighteen participants also provided bone marrow samples seven to eight months after their infections. Five returned four months later to provide a second bone marrow sample — nearly one year after contracting COVID-19. For comparison, the team also collected bone marrow from 11 people who never had coronavirus.

The results reveal COVID antibodies in the blood dropped off quickly within a few months of clearing the virus. However, these antibodies did not disappear entirely, they leveled off and scientists still detected them in patients 11 months later.

Moreover, 15 of the bone marrow samples from coronavirus patients contained antibody-producing cells which target COVID-19. The bone marrow from the five patients who came back to give a second sample still had these cells present four months later. On the other hand, all 11 people who did not get COVID-19 did not have any of these antibody-producing cells in their bone marrow.

For COVID patients, researchers say there’s no reason to think these cells will ever leave the human body.

“People with mild cases of COVID-19 clear the virus from their bodies two to three weeks after infection, so there would be no virus driving an active immune response seven or 11 months after infection,” Ellebedy explains. “These cells are not dividing. They are quiescent, just sitting in the bone marrow and secreting antibodies. They have been doing that ever since the infection resolved, and they will continue doing that indefinitely.”

. . .

The team is now examining if people receiving the COVID-19 vaccine will enjoy the same long-lasting immunity. . .
______________________

Is seems likely that if the above study is accurate, we would see similar or better results with the vaccines. I know there is much talk from drug company CEO's about annual boosters, but I am still very skeptical of that claim. If anything, we simply don't know yet.

THIS!!!! Yes, I have been saying that we are ignoring those that have natural immunity and just saying that they still need to vaccinated. So if you are going to limit activities, travel or anything else to only the vaccinated then those with natural immunity should be included with vaccinated individuals.

 

[mevelandry]

I like good news. Here is some more (I haven't read the underlying study, so I don't know how accurate this article is):

Mild COVID-19 cases can lead to antibody protection for life

Researchers explain that initial reports claiming COVID antibodies fade away quickly after an infection did not have all the facts. Their findings reveal that although the number of immune cells making antibodies drops once the patient is healthy, they never totally go away.

“Last fall, there were reports that antibodies wane quickly after infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, and mainstream media interpreted that to mean that immunity was not long-lived,” says senior author Ali Ellebedy, PhD, an associate professor of pathology and immunology, medicine, and molecular microbiology, in a university release.

“But that’s a misinterpretation of the data. It’s normal for antibody levels to go down after acute infection, but they don’t go down to zero; they plateau. Here, we found antibody-producing cells in people 11 months after first symptoms. These cells will live and produce antibodies for the rest of people’s lives. That’s strong evidence for long-lasting immunity.”

To find out how long coronavirus immunity really lasts, Ellebedy and the team started collecting both blood and bone marrow samples from people who recovered from mild cases of COVID-19. Researchers gathered 77 participants who volunteered to give blood every three months starting a month after their infection. Only six of these patients needed hospitalization during their illness.

Eighteen participants also provided bone marrow samples seven to eight months after their infections. Five returned four months later to provide a second bone marrow sample — nearly one year after contracting COVID-19. For comparison, the team also collected bone marrow from 11 people who never had coronavirus.

The results reveal COVID antibodies in the blood dropped off quickly within a few months of clearing the virus. However, these antibodies did not disappear entirely, they leveled off and scientists still detected them in patients 11 months later.

Moreover, 15 of the bone marrow samples from coronavirus patients contained antibody-producing cells which target COVID-19. The bone marrow from the five patients who came back to give a second sample still had these cells present four months later. On the other hand, all 11 people who did not get COVID-19 did not have any of these antibody-producing cells in their bone marrow.

For COVID patients, researchers say there’s no reason to think these cells will ever leave the human body.

“People with mild cases of COVID-19 clear the virus from their bodies two to three weeks after infection, so there would be no virus driving an active immune response seven or 11 months after infection,” Ellebedy explains. “These cells are not dividing. They are quiescent, just sitting in the bone marrow and secreting antibodies. They have been doing that ever since the infection resolved, and they will continue doing that indefinitely.”

. . .

The team is now examining if people receiving the COVID-19 vaccine will enjoy the same long-lasting immunity. . .
______________________

Is seems likely that if the above study is accurate, we would see similar or better results with the vaccines. I know there is much talk from drug company CEO's about annual boosters, but I am still very skeptical of that claim. If anything, we simply don't know yet.

Very small group but interesting conclusions. Looking forward to more studies like these.

 

[Intr3pid]

Very good news:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-study-finds-tiny-number-of-vaccine-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-1.5441871

While it's good news, we have seen similar data posted before. It isn't a controlled study. It's quite poissble, for example, that 90% of those in the dataset took precautions to avoid contact.

The only number that can be quoted is the vaccine's efficacy number. That's where they have determined that, for all else equal, the vaccine made that difference.

 

[DCLMP]

THIS!!!! Yes, I have been saying that we are ignoring those that have natural immunity and just saying that they still need to vaccinated. So if you are going to limit activities, travel or anything else to only the vaccinated then those with natural immunity should be included with vaccinated individuals.

How accurate are the rapid antibody tests? I know not everyone that has Covid or has had a vaccine will have a positive antibody test. T cell test are expensive?
I might try the rapid test it’s only 25 bucks.

 

[kathi]

Have you been on the pride. The Itinerars in Europe are Fantastic, but man that ship like you said is gaudy.
Carnival people seem to love it. You would hope every ship on every cruiseline is in pristine shape after not having passengers for over a year.

Disney has a big kid problem. It’s their bread and butter. Every time I’ve sailed on the Dream there were 1200 or more kids.
I could see them waiting until the CSO expires before setting sail. They can make their own rules after that. Hopefully. It’s allowed to expire.

I’ve sailed twice on the Magic in the fall with less than 350 kids on board each time. In the beginning, they are not likely to have trouble selling to reduced capacity with all vaccinated passengers.

 

[wideeyedwonder]

The current progress as of yesterday, for 3 countries that I see a lot of DISBoards members are from:

 

[DCLMP]

I’ve sailed twice on the Magic in the fall with less than 350 kids on board each time. In the beginning, they are not likely to have trouble selling to reduced capacity with all vaccinated passengers.

In the beginning sure, but long term no. There the first industry to tell 60% of the population you are not welcome.