The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[_auroraborealis_]

I wonder how many Russian residents have received this.

Putin only just ordered Russian authorities to begin mass voluntary vaccinations against Covid-19 next week. So probably not a lot. News reports say they'll have about 2 million doses to start, and I think Sputnik 5 is a double-dose.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Hm.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/1...rs-to-some-common-questions-about-the-rollout

So after I’m vaccinated, can I just return to normal life?

No. Sorry. You can’t. First of all, you’re going to need two shots. After your first shot, you’re not fully vaccinated. Second of all, after your second shot it’s going to take awhile for you to get maximum immunity. Third of all, we don’t know yet if these vaccines simply prevent people from getting the symptoms of Covid or actually stop the spread of the virus from one person to the next. They might, but we don’t know. So you do not want to be walking around feeling fine and breathing viruses all over people who haven’t gotten vaccinated yet

 

[brentm77]

Hm.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/1...rs-to-some-common-questions-about-the-rollout

At some point, it will be beyond absurd to say people who have been vaccinated cannot return to normal life. Assuming the vacine is widely available, people will have the choice to incur the risk of not getting it. For those who are high risk, but cannot, how is that different than other respiratory illnesses that are dangerous to high risk groups?

Is it me, or does it sometimes seem that a certain percentage of the media/experts would be thrilled if we would all agree to permanent isolation? Or at least thrive off of dismissing any hope people may have.

There has to be and end in sight, or people will eventually just give up and return to normal anyway. It's already happening. The experts would get more compliance now, by being more optimistic and realistic about the future. It's getting old.

 

[AquaDame]

There has to be and end in sight, or people will eventually just give up and return to normal anyway. It's already happening. The experts would get more compliance now, by being more optimistic and realistic about the future. It's getting old.

The 'at some point' is when people have all had a shot at getting the shot, which is what they're saying. They won't get compliance by allowing people to think as long as THEY are "safe" then they can do as they please either. The end IS in sight... but people are going to do what they want regardless as the last 9 months have shown.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The 'at some point' is when people have all had a shot at getting the shot, which is what they're saying. They won't get compliance by allowing people to think as long as THEY are "safe" then they can do as they please either. The end IS in sight... but people are going to do what they want regardless as the last 9 months have shown.

The likelihood is that for most of 2021 people should be expecting restrictions, particularly from agents like a cruise line where even a minor outbreak would represent a major regulatory issue for the company. It is going to be a significant while before everyone can realistically have had opportunity to receive the vaccine.

 

[brentm77]

The 'at some point' is when people have all had a shot at getting the shot, which is what they're saying.

Agreed. But the quote provided didn't really say that. It just said, "nope, other people can still get sick." My point is the messaging has been terrible from the start and continues to be so. Instead of focusing on the end game, we have been strung along and even told this is "the new normal." That is a terrible way to sell compliance.

Even the article says we may return to normal in late 2021, but it has a "big asterisk" - 75% need to get vaccinated or "no normal for you!" I take huge issue with that. It shouldn't be when people decide to get vaccinated, it should be when they have the choice to get vaccinated. Beyond that, society doesn't owe those who don't get vaccinated permanent isolation. And yes, I understand some people can't get vaccinated. But the right thing to do is sell the idea of vaccinations to the rest of us to protect them (just like for any flu season), not permanent isolation.

The likelihood is that for most of 2021 people should be expecting restrictions, particularly from agents like a cruise line where even a minor outbreak would represent a major regulatory issue for the company. It is going to be a significant while before everyone can realistically have had opportunity to receive the vaccine.

Utah thinks they will be in a position to offer the vaccine to everyone who wants it by early summer. Obviously, there is the issue of other countries not having pre-purchased millions of doses of vaccines, but speaking strictly of the U.S., if Utah can vaccinate everyone by summer, what is the hold up in other states?

What I don't think most timetables are accounting for is the huge percentage of people who will refuse it or want to wait. That means more available for those willing to take it.

As for cruising, if lines have mandatory vaccines, and vaccines are 95% effective, there is very little chance of an outbreak on a particular ship, let alone a large outbreak.

There needs to be more optimism for the return to normal in the not-too-distant future, or the experts are going to cause more and more people to give up and have the opposite effect of what they are trying to achieve. Every time good news comes out, they seem to jump up and say, "not so fast George Banks..." Would it hurt to focus more on the end game and how we can return to normal?

 

[Wakey]

Fauchi just lost a lot of respect over here in the U.K. saying U.K. has approved vaccine too quickly! Seen as an attempt to deflect criticism for it not being quicker in US. U.K. has one of the most well respected and experienced drugs approval process in the World. They were determined to do a rolling review and have been working hard on that analysis as the data had come in for months.
Nevertheless I expect US will shortly approve in about 10 days or so.
EU is really dragging its heals- meeting isn’t scheduled until 29 December. How many people will die who could have been saved due to a 1 month delay?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

but speaking strictly of the U.S., if Utah can vaccinate everyone by summer, what is the hold up in other states?

Well, Utah is the 30th most populous state in the Union, with 3.2 million residents, for one thing. Pulling a not exactly random other state, Florida is number 3, with 21.9 million residents. So it's nearly 7x the size of Utah.

You also have differences in demographics, undoubtedly, that include relative population of elderly in different states. Vaccine distribution via both state-level purchase and federal distribution are also factors. I know my state is prioritizing health care workers and long-term care residents first.

 

[princessmommyx3]

Utah thinks they will be in a position to offer the vaccine to everyone who wants it by early summer. Obviously, there is the issue of other countries not having pre-purchased millions of doses of vaccines, but speaking strictly of the U.S., if Utah can vaccinate everyone by summer, what is the hold up in other states?

I agree 100%. I think many, many people are being pessimistic because that is the narrative that has been pushed for so long and it has become almost automatic. A highly respected infectious disease doctor for one of the biggest healthcare corporations in my state (NC) just held a press conference this morning and said that the first 2 phases of people will be able to get vaccinated in NC during the second half of December and January, with the general public gaining access sometime in February. Of course I am just taking his work for it, but I have no reason not to believe him and will remain optimistic that I will have my vaccine by March at the latest.

 

[pjacobi]

The US vaccination goals reported by CNN were 20K in Dec, 30K in Jan, and 50K in Feb. That still only one-third of the population by March 1. If you are not in the high risk group, it going later. Dec 31 will be a good test to see if we are ahead or behind the plan.

-Paul

 

[brentm77]

Well, Utah is the 30th most populous state in the Union, with 3.2 million residents, for one thing. Pulling a not exactly random other state, Florida is number 3, with 21.9 million residents. So it's nearly 7x the size of Utah.

You also have differences in demographics, undoubtedly, that include relative population of elderly in different states. Vaccine distribution via both state-level purchase and federal distribution are also factors. I know my state is prioritizing health care workers and long-term care residents first.

Fair points. But presumably, states that are 7x the size also have 7x the government resources. Utah is also prioritizing healthcare workers and long-term care residents.

 

[gotomu212]

I agree 100%. I think many, many people are being pessimistic because that is the narrative that has been pushed for so long and it has become almost automatic. A highly respected infectious disease doctor for one of the biggest healthcare corporations in my state (NC) just held a press conference this morning and said that the first 2 phases of people will be able to get vaccinated in NC during the second half of December and January, with the general public gaining access sometime in February. Of course I am just taking his work for it, but I have no reason not to believe him and will remain optimistic that I will have my vaccine by March at the latest.

I think we’ll learn a lot in January. Rolling out this kind of mass vaccination problem is one of the biggest logistical centralized actions in US history. Coordinating which states get which vaccines and which people got dose 1 of x versus y, and allocating resources to states and within states, and then just the time component and sensitivity of one of these vaccines is going to create challenges that we haven’t seen before. Getting people to the right place at the right time and not have them waiting hours will require organization that we haven’t seen yet. Early testing provided some insight into how over confident leaders were at how quickly and effectively they could roll out mass testing.

I’m excited to get this rolling and get my shots, but have a little skepticism with the current talk that we’ll be through 150 million people by June.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

But presumably, states that are 7x the size also have 7x the government resources.

Not necessarily. Again, some of it comes into demographics, some of it comes into federal distribution, which isn't generally equitable. You can see quite a bit of this by looking at what states get more back in federal aid than is paid into the feds, in a broad way.

It is very rare that all things are proportionately equal, let alone equitable, when looking at funding and federal programs.

 

[MrWhizzard]

Utah thinks they will be in a position to offer the vaccine to everyone who wants it by early summer.

Also, based on this article in the Washington Post (among others), I believe that when people say "everyone", they currently mean "adults", because the studies on dosage, efficacy, etc in children and teens have not yet started:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/02/kids-vaccine-delay/

 

[Wakey]

Interestingly Fauchi is being interviewed on Sky News tonight in U.K. and basically says US can’t authorise it as quickly as U.K. simply because they’ve got to make it look like they are spending more time approving it otherwise too many in the US won’t trust it and take it. So it’s basically for show.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

This is another article on prioritization.

Basically, where you are "in line" may be heavily dependent on your state: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

 

[xuxa777]

Interestingly Fauchi is being interviewed on Sky News tonight in U.K. and basically says US can’t authorise it as quickly as U.K. simply because they’ve got to make it look like they are spending more time approving it otherwise too many in the US won’t trust it and take it. So it’s basically for show.

Everything fauchi does/says is for show at this point it appears.

 

[BartmanLA]

Everything fauchi does/says is for show at this point it appears.

Well I don't think it's just for "show", he's a well respected and long serving immunologist and infectious disease specialist, so much so that President-Elect Biden has asked him to remain in the position he's in and also advise the Biden administration on Covid-19 and other issues related to communicable diseases. However, he did kind of stick his foot in it when he insinuated that the UK "cut corners" in approving the vaccine so quickly, he didn't mean to make it sound like they had not studied the vaccine completely enough, but that their approval system is fast-tracked better to get approvals faster, and that the UK was jumping on board with asking for authorization for the 2 leading vaccine candidates so they would be able to be included in the roll out and have portions allocated for the UK. Distribution is one thing but manufacturing the vaccine is the biggest task facing the Pharma companies right now. That, and keeping the supply chain safe and secure.

 

[Intr3pid]

I don't think the narrative has been pessimistic at all. If anything, those in the leadership have been dismissive, and the elections and the lawsuits are still dominating the news.

There are nearly 3,000 people dying in the US EVERY DAY. We can't just sweep that under a carpet and dream of a rose-colored vaccine bailing us out.

The vaccine is going to solve this problem next spring, but let's focus on the winter first.

 

[Wakey]

Well I don't think it's just for "show", he's a well respected and long serving immunologist and infectious disease specialist, so much so that President-Elect Biden has asked him to remain in the position he's in and also advise the Biden administration on Covid-19 and other issues related to communicable diseases. However, he did kind of stick his foot in it when he insinuated that the UK "cut corners" in approving the vaccine so quickly, he didn't mean to make it sound like they had not studied the vaccine completely enough, but that their approval system is fast-tracked better to get approvals faster, and that the UK was jumping on board with asking for authorization for the 2 leading vaccine candidates so they would be able to be included in the roll out and have portions allocated for the UK. Distribution is one thing but manufacturing the vaccine is the biggest task facing the Pharma companies right now. That, and keeping the supply chain safe and secure.

He has now come out and apologised. He has lost a lot of credibility over here now.