The math of face masks

[BabybetterDisney]

With Disney reopening, many people are debating over the requirement for face masks. I’ve heard arguments from both sides, but I’ve never heard anybody mention the most crucial point of face masks: the math.

Your average face mask I’ve seen people wear blocks at best about 2/3 of particles. That’s a big improvement compared to no masks, certainly, but one most be aware of what that means. Say you go to MK for 3 days, wearing a mask. That’s equivalent to going to MK one day wearing NO mask. In reality, the real numbers is worse than that. It’s probably more reasonable to say 2 days: 2 days at MK with mask is the same as one day at MK with no mask.

Wearing a mask slows down the society’s overall transmission rate, but it doesn’t entirely protect the individual. If a person is in the high risk group for serious complications for covid, the only way to be truly safe at Disney World is to not go.

There is a reason CDC originally advised against wearing face masks. It gives people a false sense of security, feeling that the mask is keeping the virus away when it really isn’t. It only keeps away some virus while allowing others to come right in.

People who go to Disney World when it reopens should be fully aware of the risks, rather than just kid themselves into thinking that they are safe because everybody there is wearing a mask.

 

[dclpluto]

With Disney reopening, many people are debating over the requirement for face masks. I’ve heard arguments from both sides, but I’ve never heard anybody mention the most crucial point of face masks: the math.

Your average face mask I’ve seen people wear blocks at best about 2/3 of particles. That’s a big improvement compared to no masks, certainly, but one most be aware of what that means. Say you go to MK for 3 days, wearing a mask. That’s equivalent to going to MK one day wearing NO mask. In reality, the real numbers is worse than that. It’s probably more reasonable to say 2 days: 2 days at MK with mask is the same as one day at MK with no mask.

Wearing a mask slows down the society’s overall transmission rate, but it doesn’t entirely protect the individual. If a person is in the high risk group for serious complications for covid, the only way to be truly safe at Disney World is to not go.

There is a reason CDC originally advised against wearing face masks. It gives people a false sense of security, feeling that the mask is keeping the virus away when it really isn’t. It only keeps away some virus while allowing others to come right in.

People who go to Disney World when it reopens should be fully aware of the risks, rather than just kid themselves into thinking that they are safe because everybody there is wearing a mask.

why you only say Disney world and nothing about universal, sea world etc? We all know masks are not 100 percent not even close to it at some of the masks I seen people wearing including myself. we some some good n95 masks but of course and which they should are only for medical personal.Even some of the n95 masks that are coming now That say n95 are really not n95. Even if we did have n95 masks there will be a lot of people passing out at The theme park’s even in every day life. Than you have people like myself that touched their face a lot.
The only thing that will stop me from going Looks like its going to be my state. 14 day quarantine right now if you have been in Florida and some other states. I call my state the no fun state .

 

[sam_gordon]

With Disney reopening, many people are debating over the requirement for face masks. I’ve heard arguments from both sides, but I’ve never heard anybody mention the most crucial point of face masks: the math.

Your average face mask I’ve seen people wear blocks at best about 2/3 of particles. That’s a big improvement compared to no masks, certainly, but one most be aware of what that means. Say you go to MK for 3 days, wearing a mask. That’s equivalent to going to MK one day wearing NO mask. In reality, the real numbers is worse than that. It’s probably more reasonable to say 2 days: 2 days at MK with mask is the same as one day at MK with no mask.

Wearing a mask slows down the society’s overall transmission rate, but it doesn’t entirely protect the individual. If a person is in the high risk group for serious complications for covid, the only way to be truly safe at Disney World is to not go.

There is a reason CDC originally advised against wearing face masks. It gives people a false sense of security, feeling that the mask is keeping the virus away when it really isn’t. It only keeps away some virus while allowing others to come right in.

People who go to Disney World when it reopens should be fully aware of the risks, rather than just kid themselves into thinking that they are safe because everybody there is wearing a mask.

Where do you get your stats that a mask could block 2/3 of particles? If you're going to make a "math" argument, then it should be backed up by facts.
And I also think the main reason the CDC originally said masks aren't needed was to make sure there was a ready supply of masks for medical personnel. I understand where they were coming from, but I think that was a mistake on their part.

One thing in a theme park's favor is it is mostly outdoors.
Most ride vehicles should be fairly easy to social distance.
Most ride vehicles should be fairly easy to clean in between usage (granted, need additional employees to do this).
Because of the size of the parks and limited number of people let in, it should be fairly easy to social distance.

All that being said, I would not be planning a trip to any theme park at this point in time.
I would not want to be wearing a mask outside for hours on end.
I would not like that many things are not available (fireworks, parades, shows, etc).
I would not want to be around that many different people for that many hours.

 

[Carol_]

We shouldn’t forget the geometry. Never forget the geometry.
It’s all a game of angles.
And vectors. Oh shoot. I’m slipping into physics.
Help!
I’m falling down the science rabbit hole!
I’ll be arguing about chimerisms soon!

 

[randumb0]

I feel sorry for the CM's that will be working this summer. Living in Orlando, I can barely stand outside for 20 minutes with a mask when it's 94 degrees. I couldn't imagine walking around or standing inside a theme park for hours

 

[CarolAnn856]

With Disney reopening, many people are debating over the requirement for face masks. I’ve heard arguments from both sides, but I’ve never heard anybody mention the most crucial point of face masks: the math.

Your average face mask I’ve seen people wear blocks at best about 2/3 of particles. That’s a big improvement compared to no masks, certainly, but one most be aware of what that means. Say you go to MK for 3 days, wearing a mask. That’s equivalent to going to MK one day wearing NO mask. In reality, the real numbers is worse than that. It’s probably more reasonable to say 2 days: 2 days at MK with mask is the same as one day at MK with no mask.

Wearing a mask slows down the society’s overall transmission rate, but it doesn’t entirely protect the individual. If a person is in the high risk group for serious complications for covid, the only way to be truly safe at Disney World is to not go.

There is a reason CDC originally advised against wearing face masks. It gives people a false sense of security, feeling that the mask is keeping the virus away when it really isn’t. It only keeps away some virus while allowing others to come right in.

People who go to Disney World when it reopens should be fully aware of the risks, rather than just kid themselves into thinking that they are safe because everybody there is wearing a mask.

While your conclusion is correct - wearing a mask helps tremendously but isn’t perfect - your “math” and other statements are way off base.

 

[JM23457]

Math, science, social studies...Yawn. This is summer and I'm out of school until August.

 

[seashoreCM]

The primary purpose of a mask is to protect other people from the virus particles riding on microscopic droplets of water.

After a few moments the droplets that made it out will evaporate but it takes time for the virus particles all alone to settle to the floor or ground. The virus partlcles by themselves are much smaller so they will find it much easier to get through a mask of the same kind worn by the unwitting victim/recipient.

Thus the mask is most effective when reducing the spewing out of the virus particles, riding on water droplets, in the first place.

 

[MrsPete]

I question this "math":

Assume you're talking about transmission between just two people. Assume your 2/3 blockage is true. It'd break down like this:
- Person 1 breathes out germs and 1/3 get through.
- Person 2 breathes in those germs and 1/3 of those get through (so would that be 1/9 of what Person 1 breathed out?).
- But it isn't between just two people. In reality, you'd have to multiply this Xs every person you'd be near in the Magic Kingdom. And consider the germs that might stay behind on ride seats.
- And the real issue is that SOME germs get through. How many does it take to make you sick?

This is an acceptable risk if you're talking about going out for things you NEED to do -- like go to the grocery store, the pharmacy, or even to work. And in your everyday life, 6' separation is kinda possible most of the time. Going to Disney is an option, not a requirement, and 6' separation is impossible at Disney.

I agree that masks are somewhat dangerous in that they can give a false sense of security. Masks make you safer for necessary tasks; they aren't a "get out of jail free card" to let you carry on your normal life with impunity.

 

[mjkacmom]

Masks don’t protect the wearer, this has been explained over and over, but helps protect others from the wearer.

 

[cabanafrau]

Masks don’t protect the wearer, this has been explained over and over, but helps protect others from the wearer.

Science, math, logic, courtesy, consideration, priorities -- simply some of the unseen and unheard victims of the pandemic.

 

[tvguy]

It's pretty simple to me. If it prevents illness and death, it's worth it.

 

[lorimay]

It's pretty simple to me. If it prevents illness and death, it's worth it.

Thank you!
It really is simple..........
Just Do It!!!!!!!

 

[sam_gordon]

Masks don’t protect the wearer, this has been explained over and over, but helps protect others from the wearer.

It's also false. Masks WILL protect the wearer, especially from others who do NOT wear masks. Is it 100%? No. But neither is the mask on a "shedder".

 

[PrincessShmoo]

With Disney reopening, many people are debating over the requirement for face masks. I’ve heard arguments from both sides, but I’ve never heard anybody mention the most crucial point of face masks: the math.

Your average face mask I’ve seen people wear blocks at best about 2/3 of particles. That’s a big improvement compared to no masks, certainly, but one most be aware of what that means. Say you go to MK for 3 days, wearing a mask. That’s equivalent to going to MK one day wearing NO mask. In reality, the real numbers is worse than that. It’s probably more reasonable to say 2 days: 2 days at MK with mask is the same as one day at MK with no mask.

Wearing a mask slows down the society’s overall transmission rate, but it doesn’t entirely protect the individual. If a person is in the high risk group for serious complications for covid, the only way to be truly safe at Disney World is to not go.

There is a reason CDC originally advised against wearing face masks. It gives people a false sense of security, feeling that the mask is keeping the virus away when it really isn’t. It only keeps away some virus while allowing others to come right in.

People who go to Disney World when it reopens should be fully aware of the risks, rather than just kid themselves into thinking that they are safe because everybody there is wearing a mask.

Face coverings are not to protect the wearer - they're to provide more protection than nothing for the people the wearer is in contact with.

If someone doesn't want to wear a face covering, fine. But don't expect to be allowed to do so in a place that has set a policy to require it. Much like the "no shoes, no shirt, no service" policy that many businesses already have in place. Just add "no mask".

 

[tasha99]

With Disney reopening, many people are debating over the requirement for face masks. I’ve heard arguments from both sides, but I’ve never heard anybody mention the most crucial point of face masks: the math.

Your average face mask I’ve seen people wear blocks at best about 2/3 of particles. That’s a big improvement compared to no masks, certainly, but one most be aware of what that means. Say you go to MK for 3 days, wearing a mask. That’s equivalent to going to MK one day wearing NO mask. In reality, the real numbers is worse than that. It’s probably more reasonable to say 2 days: 2 days at MK with mask is the same as one day at MK with no mask.

Wearing a mask slows down the society’s overall transmission rate, but it doesn’t entirely protect the individual. If a person is in the high risk group for serious complications for covid, the only way to be truly safe at Disney World is to not go.

There is a reason CDC originally advised against wearing face masks. It gives people a false sense of security, feeling that the mask is keeping the virus away when it really isn’t. It only keeps away some virus while allowing others to come right in.

People who go to Disney World when it reopens should be fully aware of the risks, rather than just kid themselves into thinking that they are safe because everybody there is wearing a mask.

Honestly, I think the CDC made their recommendations to manipulate the public into not hoarding masks. Otherwise, they've been lying about droplet protections to healthcare workers all along.

It's also false. Masks WILL protect the wearer, especially from others who do NOT wear masks. Is it 100%? No. But neither is the mask on a "shedder".

I agree. I've never gotten sick going into a patient's room when wearing the appropriate PPE, including the flu and norovirus. Sure, it's not 100%, but I never got burned. I feel like the CDC made it worse with their mask recommendations and that their attempt to control mask hoarding has made people more resistant to using them now.

 

[bigredbeta]

- Person 1 breathes out germs and 1/3 get through.
- Person 2 breathes in those germs and 1/3 of those get through (so would that be 1/9 of what Person 1 breathed out?).
- But it isn't between just two people. In reality, you'd have to multiply this Xs every person you'd be near in the Magic Kingdom. And consider the germs that might stay behind on ride seats.
- And the real issue is that SOME germs get through. How many does it take to make you sick?

This is an acceptable risk if you're talking about going out for things you NEED to do -- like go to the grocery store, the pharmacy, or even to work. And in your everyday life, 6' separation is kinda possible most of the time. Going to Disney is an option, not a requirement, and 6' separation is impossible at Disney.

I agree that masks are somewhat dangerous in that they can give a false sense of security. Masks make you safer for necessary tasks; they aren't a "get out of jail free card" to let you carry on your normal life with impunity.

(for the record, I'm a physician, board certified in pediatrics and pediatric critical care medicine)

This is actually the key question, and is why a multilayered risk mitigation strategy is important...

Some of you may have heard of "the dose makes the poison" concept and it's useful in a whole lot of situations. Everyone would agree that drinking water is good, but drinking too much can kill you. With viruses and bacteria, there's a minimum number of germs needed in order to make you sick. Seems intuitive, but the number is different for each type and how you get exposed or where the exposure takes place in your body also matters. We can see this in the COVID data, where individuals are far more likely to get the virus from a household member, or at so called super-spreading events like choir practice (indoors, people breathing more deeply and exhaling more forcibly) because the exposure is so much higher.

The particles that contain the most viruses are bigger, and as such much more likely to get caught by a mask worn by the person is infected. That helps control probably well more than 2/3 of the total viral particles. Further if any of those larger particles do get beyond the mask, they are more likely to fall the ground within about 3ft of their source and an even fewer will reach 6 feet away. The aersolized particles are more likely to get through the mask, and hang in the air going farther than 6 feet, but they also are carrying far fewer viral particles. Even if you inhale some of these aersolized particles, you are less likely to receive a dose of virus that actually gets you sick. A non-infected person wearing a standard cloth or surgical mask will have some blockage of these aersolized particles but it's far less than what gets captured by the infected person wearing a mask. The data from countries where mask use was widespread early on is undeniable and contributed significantly to lower rates of infection. The key is not asking for perfect elimination of risk, just some marginal decrease in the risk.

Being outside certainly helps dilute out these aersolized particles, thus making it harder to achieve that necessary minimum number of particles to make you sick, even in an area where there are thousands of people (in part because it's likely a very small number of people at WDW at any one time are likely to be infected). But it's not so simple as 2/3*2/3*N number of guests. Nor is it possible to equate 3 days of exposure with a mask to 1 day with no mask, largely because the protections come from the infected person wearing their mask.

There are also individualized risks that can't be quantified. One of the reason that kids are at such lower risk is that their bodies typically have lower levels of the ACE2 receptors in their lungs and airways compared to adults. The ACE2 receptors are the way in which the SARS-CoV2 virus enters your body and so having fewer available sites helps limit the degree of illness. Within the adult age group though there's still a fairly wide range of expression of these receptors, but of course, you have no way of knowing if you are an over or under expresser.

I think the risk assessment varies for everyone and so it's hard to say, particularly accounting for areas of the country where the local prevalence of the virus can be very disparate, to say that the risk is automatically too much to bear for a trip to Disney. Yes it's a risk, and the harms of not going on a trip are generally far less important than the harms of not going to grocery store, but at the same time with proper precautions, it may be tolerable to some.