We showed up this last Tuesday for a non -EMH rope drop and had a 9:25am SDD fastpass. We were able to walk on TSM, Alien Swirling Saucers, and TSM again before checking in at right around 9:25am for our fastpass. 95% of the rope drop crowd going to Toy Story Land veered right to get in line for Slinky Dog. After we got off Slinky Dog around 9:35am TSM was a posted 35 minute wait.
We have been several times in October and last Sunday through Thursday was the least crowded we have ever seen the parks on our October trips-- or maybe ever. We were walking onto, or had very short waits, for everything Sunday-Weds. Sunday, Space Mountain had a 10 minute wait in the middle of the afternoon. The crowds started picking up on Friday, and were pretty crazy Saturday and Sunday (Columbus Day weekend).
We were at DHS for the morning on Wednesday (only there because of a lunch ADR and hopped right after) and it was great. The crowds were low. SDD had an initial morning surge and then seemed to hover between 45 and 60 minutes.
We were there a good part of the day Saturday- until we got fed up with the crowds and decided to skip Fantasmic (we had done the dining package, but we had seen it before). It was hot, crowded and miserable on Saturday. I had gotten a 3:30 Alien Saucers FP+ to pop by refreshing and by 2:00 everyone was ready to leave, but I made them stay until we rode that ( and by the way if you have ever been to CA at DLR and rode the just closed down Francis Ladybug boogie in Bugsland, it is basically the same ride with a bigger track and bigger ride vehicles-- we were not impressed- it is a one and done for us unless it is a 10 minute wait or less).
I could never get a SDD to pop up by refreshing on Saturday, so we went back Sunday morning to ride it with the FP+ I had booked at 60 days. SDD was a really cute ride and it gives great views of Star Wars land construction. I would say the intensity is between Barnstormer and BTMRR. DH and I did not expect to like it that much, but we really enjoyed it. On Saturday and Sunday- we saw SDD at an over 2 hour wait more than once- and people were still getting in line- the lowest we ever saw it either of those days was 90 minutes. Those 2 days, it seemed to go between 90 and 170 minutes. At around 9:30, with the morning surge it was at 165 minutes.
I think how refresh works is dependent on the crowd levels. We had great success with it Sunday -Thursday. We were at AK Thurs and got FOP and Navi. Navi was a little harder, but FOP was popping up over and over that afternoon. Were it not for that fact that FOP makes me dizzy we would have probably ridden FOP 5 or 6 times (and believe me the dizzy is absolutely worth it-- that ride is WOW!!!!!!...but twice is my limit). Friday -Sunday it was a lot harder to get things to pop up using refresh. Yesterday, I was able to get Frozen at EPCOT, but it was for last night after magical express was picking us up and I was never able to get the time moved up.