^ Yes, all of this.
Maybe you could make that argument if we only had September data, but the data over time tells a vastly different story. When RIV and VGF were priced similarly to one another under prior incentives, VGF was whupping RIV. Now that RIV is way cheaper, it's flipped.
The only time when VGF surpassed RIV was when VGF was first released -- There were people waiting for months to make the purchase. While RIV has been on the market for 3 years.
VGF has always been priced more than RIV. The gap has grown, but only by a tiny amount.
Month by month:
Sep: RIV over VGF by 76%
Aug: RIV over VGF by 18%
July: RIV over VGF by 11%
June: VGF over RIV by 8%
May: VGF over RIV by 69%
April: VGF over RIV by 91%
March: VGF over RIV by 64% (partial month)
As we see, VGF sales only "whupped" RIV for 2 1/2 months. And guess what -- if you started selling Poly2 tomorrow, it would "whup" VGF and RIV for a few months -- That's owing to it being a brand new release.
We actually see a steady decline in VGF sales, not a sudden decline attributable to a sudden price change.
Clearly, RIV is the more popular purchase. I am certain that a price is a major factor. Probably the most significant factor. But I'm not sure if the price gap alone is enough to explain such a big difference.
Other *possible* contributing factors:
- People prefer the Epcot/Skyliner/DHS location over Monorail/MK -- While it's possible, I'd say it's unlikely. Conventional wisdom is that monorail resorts are the most desired location for the majority of buyers. While some (myself included) prefer the Crescent lake area, being able to walk or monorail to Magic Kingdom traditionally has a premium.
-Riviera has longer contract -- I doubt too many buyers are factoring in a big difference between 44 and 48 years, but I suppose it could be a tie breaker in Riviera's favor.
-The majority of people just prefer the Riviera as a resort -- This is obviously very very subjective. They are both gorgeous resorts with different vibes. It's possible that the majority prefer Riviera despite the online hate claiming it's a gray box. But Grand Floridian does have more dining, grander lobby.... I'm not so sure a majority would prefer Riviera.
-The majority of new buyers prefer the rooms at Riviera -- As I said above, I'm speculating. But this seems likely. When first announced, I said the VGF resort studios could go in either direction -- People may love having 2 real beds in a large room, or people may miss the split bathrooms, real kitchenettes, and sofa/murphy bed which can close to create more space.
As I said, I'm very confident price is the single biggest factor. It's quite possible that in the eyes of most buyers, the 2 resorts are about even, with pricing tilting in favor of Riviera. If VGF was cheaper than RIV, I'm sure VGF would beat RIV in sales.
If they were priced the same? I'm really not sure. Six months ago, I would have guessed that if priced the same, VGF sales would be a little higher than RIV. With the more recent data, I wouldn't be surprised if the demand tilted towards RIV, even if priced the same. (though the tilt would be far far less dramatic than we are seeing this month).
