Sept 2022 DVC Direct Sales

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Riviera holding steady
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...2022-grand-floridian-continues-downward-trend

 

[DVCsloth]

I still feel that it was not a good idea to sell BPK as DVC. I originally bought DVC for the home away from home concept. I love VGF and I think it will eventually do ok, but I think they should have just stuck with selling Riviera for now. They could have lowered the price of hotel stays or included passes if they were having trouble filling the rooms.

 

[Sandisw]

Pretty surprised at the low number for VGF. While I know sales for that resort were dipping, that’s a pretty significant drop in sales,

Happy to see RIV holding steady. Certainly another month showing that restrictions are not a deal breaker for many new buyers.

Very interesting that there was such a low number for the sold out resorts.

 

[Nabas]

With the amount of data now available, it’s a clear pattern that RIV resale restrictions are not affecting direct sales.

I suspect the vast majority buy direct thinking they are not going to sell down the road. This pattern lends credence to that suspicion.

 

[havoc315]

Pretty surprised at the low number for VGF. While I know sales for that resort were dipping, that’s a pretty significant drop in sales,

Happy to see RIV holding steady. Certainly another month showing that restrictions are not a deal breaker for many new buyers.

Very interesting that there was such a low number for the sold out resorts.

Considering any new buyers can purchase either a monorail resort or Epcot area resort with incentives, considering the very high price of the sold out resorts (generally for far fewer years), it’s not shocking that demand for the sold out resorts would be low.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

This same "thread" comes up every time a new resort has gone on sale and then starts dipping. Sky is falling, new resort isn't selling. Have to remember that DVC sells what DVC wants to sell. Something new opens and there's a big promo of "look what we have now" because the marketing attention is good for DVC. If the new resort is pretty much all they have because the timing aligned to selling out what had been current then sales continue at a steady pace. Otherwise they take care of the initial rush for those who had been waiting for that resort then get back to pushing the resort they want to sell - that which they were selling before. When that's done the sale pitch changes to sell whatever they next want to sell.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

RIV sales #s are impressive. VGF dip is surprising. Maybe people don’t want to be stuck with mostly resort studios, similar to the Poly? I love reading this report. I hope dvcnews will be able to track VDH sales numbers when they start selling in Anaheim.

 

[Stargazer65]

Riviera restrictions are hurting sales and this proves it. The restrictions are hurting sales at the other resorts.

 

[pianomanzano]

Riviera restrictions are hurting sales and this proves it. The restrictions are hurting sales at the other resorts.

I’m curious, how do you come to that conclusion? Personally, I think other factors are more relevant such as the recent price increases at all the sold out resorts (can’t imagine paying 200/pt at SSR and it seems like most buyers agree since they’ve barely had any sales since the price increase and they are starting to waive resales in the 118-125 range), no APs or other real perks to buy direct, and the overall economy.

I know others in this thread think that the strong RIV sales show that restrictions aren’t a deal breaker as people thought it would be. I’d argue that buyers are really just unaware of how serious of a risk it poses. New members are making up a majority of the purchases and based on the kinds of questions I see about joining DVC on FB and other places, a lot of these new members/buyers aren’t doing their homework/research about the basics of DVC, let alone the resale restrictions.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I know others in this thread think that the strong RIV sales show that restrictions aren’t a deal breaker as people thought it would be. I’d argue that buyers are really just unaware of how serious of a risk it poses. New members are making up a majority of the purchases and based on the kinds of questions I see about joining DVC on FB and other places, a lot of these new members/buyers aren’t doing their homework/research about the basics of DVC, let alone the resale restrictions.

New buyers may not be as savvy as some of the grizzled veterans here on the DIS, or they may understand the restrictions on resale points and aren't really worried by them.

What are the serious risks posed to the owner of directly purchased Riviera points? Just curious about that piece.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Pretty surprised at the low number for VGF. While I know sales for that resort were dipping, that’s a pretty significant drop in sales,

Happy to see RIV holding steady. Certainly another month showing that restrictions are not a deal breaker for many new buyers.

Very interesting that there was such a low number for the sold out resorts.

The VGF drop is really surprising and if memory serves me correctly, now has been going down each of the last few months. That's not a good sign.

DVC has to be reasonably happy with RIV being off 1.5% as compared to the overall dip and the drop in VGF. Within that context, RIV is doing well.

Agree about the sold-out resorts. It will be really interesting to see if they do any new big sales/discounts to jump-start a few of those resorts, especially if some of the resale prices are trending downwards.

 

[Ruttangel]

Hopefully strong VGF incentives are back under consideration but probably not until a price increase in January.

 

[Sandisw]

Considering any new buyers can purchase either a monorail resort or Epcot area resort with incentives, considering the very high price of the sold out resorts (generally for far fewer years), it’s not shocking that demand for the sold out resorts would be low.

I meant in reference to the articles comparison to last September and how different it was.

But thinking more about it, it may be due to VGF being in active sales now which was not the case last September.

 

[Sandisw]

I’m curious, how do you come to that conclusion? Personally, I think other factors are more relevant such as the recent price increases at all the sold out resorts (can’t imagine paying 200/pt at SSR and it seems like most buyers agree since they’ve barely had any sales since the price increase and they are starting to waive resales in the 118-125 range), no APs or other real perks to buy direct, and the overall economy.

I know others in this thread think that the strong RIV sales show that restrictions aren’t a deal breaker as people thought it would be. I’d argue that buyers are really just unaware of how serious of a risk it poses. New members are making up a majority of the purchases and based on the kinds of questions I see about joining DVC on FB and other places, a lot of these new members/buyers aren’t doing their homework/research about the basics of DVC, let alone the resale restrictions.

The whole discussion though about the restrictions is really whether or not the move by DVD would be drastic enough that it tanked their sales to the degree that they would abandon that decision.

We can keep saying that buyers just are uninformed but plenty of us who are still bought because we aren’t that concerned about it in the end.

Regardless of the reason, buyers are buying RIV, which is all DVD cares about.

 

[Nursemanit]

The conclusion I see is discounts are working .

 

[BeachClub2014]

The conclusion I see is discounts are working .

They certainly don't hurt!

 

[havoc315]

I meant in reference to the articles comparison to last September and how different it was.

But thinking more about it, it may be due to VGF being in active sales now which was not the case last September.

Exactly... why buy direct at BLT or POLY (except maybe pre-existing owners adding a few more points), when it's so much cheaper to buy at GFV.

In Crescent lake, the direct prices of BWV and BCV have gotten ridiculously high for now less than 20 years.

There is no reason to buy direct anywhere but GFV or RIV, with the exception of people who already own at a resort wanting to add additional points.

It occurred to me that most ROFR buybacks probably are NOT for re-sale as direct. Instead, it's probably a way that Disney can constantly adjust their inventory of cash rooms. Want to add a couple hundred deluxe cash rooms.... just ROFR some contracts. Want to reduce your cash room inventory, offer some direct purchase incentives.

That's also why BCV and BWV are so expensive for direct. Disney is perfectly content on holding on to inventory for cash rooms at those resorts. With under 20 years to go, they are more confident in filling those rooms every year. When they sell a DVC room, it's because it is more profitable to sell it (cash in hand is more valuable than cash spread over 50 years) than to rent it as a cash room. As fewer years remain, they can make more money just by keeping the room as a cash room.

 

[Sandisw]

The conclusion I see is discounts are working .

Definitely!. But that is still a pretty big difference in sales between VGF and RIV when the discounts themselves for new buyers are not substantially different. On a 200 point contract...the average for new buyers, it is only $2600. Not enough to make someone who wants VGF to choose RIV.

I would say though that VGF will need incentives to sell better if DVD wants it to. But, since RIV has so many more points to sell given it is a 6.7 million point resort, maybe they'd just rather sell those?

 

[havoc315]

I admit, I'm a bit surprised that Riviera sales are almost double VGF sales.
I'm led to a few conclusions:
1 -- Definite: Price is probably the biggest driving factor. Riviera is cheaper. In the minds of most buyers, they don't see any advantage to VGF that is worth paying more.
2 -- Very confident: In the eyes of most new buyers, Riviera is at least equal quality to VGF if not superior.
3-- Speculative: Buyers aren't in love with the VGF "resort studios"

 

[havoc315]

Definitely!. But that is still a pretty big difference in sales between VGF and RIV when the discounts themselves for new buyers are not substantially different. On a 200 point contract...the average for new buyers, it is only $2600. Not enough to make someone who wants VGF to choose RIV.

I would say though that VGF will need incentives to sell better if DVD wants it to. But, since RIV has so many more points to sell given it is a 6.7 million point resort, maybe they'd just rather sell those?

I suspect they will continue to keep Riviera cheaper than VGF, but the gap may narrow with the next round of incentives.
Riviera has more points to sell, as you suggested.
But they also would want to time selling VGF out as about the same time as they start selling Poly.