Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[TexasChick123]

Thanks for sharing your perspective. Here's the thing, though, if you look at it from a long term perspective, you will be ok regardless. Here's why:

Let's say you stay there and you can't stand it to the point where you will never stay there again and want to sell. Unfortunately, the resale restrictions make it so that you can't sell for a reasonable amount. At that point in time, the money you spent on RIV becomes dead money. It's gone. We've all done it before - bought something that we shouldn't have and just written it off as a bad purchase. But that's where this is different. From that point on you can start renting out your points and recapturing some of that money - eventually all of that money. Sure, it will take about 10-12 years to become whole again (assuming double MF in rental income plus 50% return upon sale) but you will become whole again. And in 2031 the huge mistake that you made is essentially erased. And here's the best part. All of the arguments we throw out there about cost of use of money and next-best alternative don't apply here...because it's a bad purchase not an investment. You don't go out to a steak dinner and calculate the delta between the steak and a burger and figure out how much that decision will end up costing you 10, 20, 30 years from now. You're not going to do that here either because this isn't an investment, it's not even a timeshare, it's a bad purchase - like that home gym that now serves as a glorifies clothes hanger or anything As Seen on TV.

I want to be clear, I'm not suggesting that this is a sound strategy, far from it. The thought of spending a chunk of money now in the hopes that you can simply recover it ten years from now with no benefit of use is absurd. But it is a perspective and a change in thinking. Once you have written off the purchase price, every penny you get is money that you weren't expecting. That's the failsafe of DVC and that is why we can have these conversations so brazenly...because we all have this giant life preserver around our waists as we do so. We can knock DVC all we want, but it's still one of the strongest, safest timeshare systems out there.

I agree with all that you said. Truth be told, we would probably hang onto it and stay there anyway even if it wasn’t our favorite which it very well may become. We’ve all made good and bad purchase decisions, like you stated. I do think this will be a good one for us and our family, but I can’t predict the future.

I keep going back to our house. Everyone KNEW we were buying at the “top of the market” when we purchased several years ago. The prices were too high, and we’d never get our money back! Here we are 6 years later with someone trying to buy our home for 15% more than we paid without even putting it on the market! We don’t live in a crazy real estate bubble area either. That’s a long story as to how that came to be, but we aren’t selling. The point is, all any of us can do is make the best decision with the info we have at the time. We think Riviera is for us and pre-sales will be some of the best, if not the best, incentives offered, so we purchased it. Maybe we’re right, and maybe not. The sales numbers seem to be in line with other properties so far for pre-sales, so others must agree. I can’t wait to see it once it’s opened this winter!

 

[kboo]

I see a bunch of reasons to buy I don't think anyone is wrong to purchase there. My biggest thing really is the points chart not being as friendly as BW or AK along with resale available for those two resorts.

About that points chart ... I see it as being somewhere between BLT and VGF. Now I understand we can argue about whether RIV's location warrants their point chart being somewhere between BLT and VGF, but I generally don't hear nearly as much about VGF's point charts being too high, and BLT is often considered a very good point chart, particularly for an MK area resort.

As for comparisons to CCV's point chart - my understanding was that they were somewhat constrained by CCV's point chart because VWL/BRV was right there, so you were not going to be able to sell a new DVC on the same grounds as an older one, that had crazy high point charts in comparison.

We've also seen speculation that there is no way ever that DVC will offer a BWV extension because the points charts there are too low. So maybe not a great comparison there either - if you want a low point chart at EP, you can buy BWV, but you'll only have points until 2042. If you want longer than that, you have RIV. Take it or leave it.

If anyone I've talked to IRL is considering AKV v RIV, I tell them to go AKV resale over RIV any day. They are fundamentally different DVC products, and imo AKV is the best deal resale because you'll still have the L14 to sleep around, at very good prices, and AKV is a very nice resort to be "stuck" at. But, AK is not EP or HS (or MK), so if you're not into AK (or AKV style), then don't buy there. I for one am likely going to end up booking AKV with my expensive BLT or VGF or RIV points someday, but that's ok - whileI like AKV, I still will prefer staying at my home resorts more frequently.

I agree with all that you said. Truth be told, we would probably hang onto it and stay there anyway even if it wasn’t our favorite which it very well may become. We’ve all made good and bad purchase decisions, like you stated. I do think this will be a good one for us and our family, but I can’t predict the future.

Same here. We wanted an EP/HS resort. DH and I like BCV and BWV plenty, but BWV has only lock offs for 2br, and BCV we don't like the location of the DVC and the walk to SAB and the separation of the different sections of the pool, AND we don't like the 2042 end date. On the checklist of what we liked and didn't like for an EP/HS area resort, RIV simply hit more pros and fewer cons than BCV and BWV (and we have stayed at both). Like @TexasChick123, we bought in the first round of incentives that made the per point price very competitive with BLT (where we were thinking of adding on). I'm not saying it was a slam dunk, but it wasn't a super-difficult decision either. And yes, we may use RIV points to book BCV or BWV at 7mo if it's available, and that's fine too.

it's a bad purchase - like that home gym that now serves as a glorifies clothes hanger or anything As Seen on TV.

 

[skier_pete]

So I just wanted to point out that i was not trying to denigrate Riviera and tell people not to buy there my point was to try and answer the question of how it is selling, and possibly suggest reasons why it appears to be selling not as well as CCV. This is not a criticism on anyone that bought there.

 

[Mumof4mice]

Thanks for sharing your perspective. Here's the thing, though, if you look at it from a long term perspective, you will be ok regardless. Here's why:

Let's say you stay there and you can't stand it to the point where you will never stay there again and want to sell. Unfortunately, the resale restrictions make it so that you can't sell for a reasonable amount. At that point in time, the money you spent on RIV becomes dead money. It's gone. We've all done it before - bought something that we shouldn't have and just written it off as a bad purchase. But that's where this is different. From that point on you can start renting out your points and recapturing some of that money - eventually all of that money. Sure, it will take about 10-12 years to become whole again (assuming double MF in rental income plus 50% return upon sale) but you will become whole again. And in 2031 the huge mistake that you made is essentially erased. And here's the best part. All of the arguments we throw out there about cost of use of money and next-best alternative don't apply here...because it's a bad purchase not an investment. You don't go out to a steak dinner and calculate the delta between the steak and a burger and figure out how much that decision will end up costing you 10, 20, 30 years from now. You're not going to do that here either because this isn't an investment, it's not even a timeshare, it's a bad purchase - like that home gym that now serves as a glorifies clothes hanger or anything As Seen on TV.

I want to be clear, I'm not suggesting that this is a sound strategy, far from it. The thought of spending a chunk of money now in the hopes that you can simply recover it ten years from now with no benefit of use is absurd. But it is a perspective and a change in thinking. Once you have written off the purchase price, every penny you get is money that you weren't expecting. That's the failsafe of DVC and that is why we can have these conversations so brazenly...because we all have this giant life preserver around our waists as we do so. We can knock DVC all we want, but it's still one of the strongest, safest timeshare systems out there.

When we get a bad meal from an expensive restaurant, go on a vacation where everything goes wrong, buy a car that we can't tolerate, that money is gone. Taking up a second job overnight Uber driving for 10 years would barely pay for fuel, car maintenance and energy drinks.

The Mouse certainly has the upper hand over DVC owners. But DVC is still a viable option for those who can accept the purchase price as a sunk cost. Compared to other purchases we could be splurging our entertainment budget on, it's not the worst.

 

[ScubaCat]

Copper Creek sales did start dropping when Riviera came on line.

That's also about the time (beginning of June) that they raised CCV to $210 and yanked the incentives, so there was a significant (~$50/point) price descepancy, too.

 

[TexasChick123]

I’m most interested to see how sales are doing once the resort opens. I think the sales will be somewhat flat over the next couple of months because they put the resort on sale so far in advance of when it opens compared to the other most recent resorts. I don’t know that there will be anything to boost sales before it opens, but maybe they’ll surprise us. Resorts seem to have somewhat lackluster sales comparatively until opening which makes sense. Most of us who wanted to purchase at pre-sale prices have. Now, we all hurry up and wait.

 

[Pyotr]

When we did our tour in late March I expressed interest in Riviera. This was about two weeks before it went on sale to the general public. Our guide definitely pushed us towards CCV.

We have discussed doing a small add on mainly for Food and Wine. Riviera would make sense for this. However, my wife hates the decor and I have too many questions. I definitely need to stay there before I make any decisions.

 

[WIll C]

I’m most interested to see how sales are doing once the resort opens. I think the sales will be somewhat flat over the next couple of months because they put the resort on sale so far in advance of when it opens compared to the other most recent resorts. I don’t know that there will be anything to boost sales before it opens, but maybe they’ll surprise us. Resorts seem to have somewhat lackluster sales comparatively until opening which makes sense. Most of us who wanted to purchase at pre-sale prices have. Now, we all hurry up and wait.

We were in the same boat. The pre-sale incentives were enough to push us over to buy now. I would have liked to bought at CCV but the increase and no incentives just didn't make sense. We'll see how it pans out once it opens. We're coming down in December, after it opens for Christmas, and we'll get to see how it is.

 

[ScubaCat]

I don’t know that there will be anything to boost sales before it opens, but maybe they’ll surprise us.

You can now get a nice slow ride thru the skyliner station and a pretty nice view from both directions. I wouldn't discount that for a sales boost. It does look pretty "grand" (if you will) coming upon it from up above.

 

[kboo]

So I just wanted to point out that i was not trying to denigrate Riviera and tell people not to buy there my point was to try and answer the question of how it is selling, and possibly suggest reasons why it appears to be selling not as well as CCV. This is not a criticism on anyone that bought there.

No offense or criticism taken from me - I was pointing out, resort by resort, why comparing to recent resorts might be a little like apples and oranges. As an ex-lawyer, I am used to making bullet points for all of my points and arguing ... that's just how I write!

I’m most interested to see how sales are doing once the resort opens. I think the sales will be somewhat flat over the next couple of months because they put the resort on sale so far in advance of when it opens compared to the other most recent resorts. I don’t know that there will be anything to boost sales before it opens, but maybe they’ll surprise us. Resorts seem to have somewhat lackluster sales comparatively until opening which makes sense. Most of us who wanted to purchase at pre-sale prices have. Now, we all hurry up and wait.

I was firmly in the camp of buying a lowball, small RIV resale (my price point would have been ~$120) sometime down the line so I could use it only at RIV for split stays with our MK resorts, since all of our prior points were grandfathered to the new resorts anyway. We actually could use more BLT points but the pre-sale incentives for RIV made it very competitive with BLT, and we wanted to have larger-than-hotel-room options than Swan/Dolphin which is where we *had* been staying when we wanted to spend time at EP/HS. Also, I didn't want to wait until 2021 to be booking at RIV using RIV resale points. Seeing the mockup rooms at SSR also helped.

I also think that if there is an economic slowdown/downturn, there may yet be good incentives for buying direct after the resort opens, and they'll have all those cash buyers staying at shiny new RIV with pixie dust in their eyes, and ... new, less savvy buyers are an easier sell than those of us who go and tie up a rep's time asking tough questions about resale restrictions ...

 

[kboo]

I will add that buying RIV direct has either cured my addonitis or put it into a long term remission, so maybe it has "saved" me money after all.
#DisneyEconomics

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think they started Riviera sales sooner than perhaps they wanted to, but with CCV hitting sell-through, they almost had to, and they prefer having some overlap on resort sales.

 

[TexasChick123]

I will add that buying RIV direct has either cured my addonitis or put it into a long term remission, so maybe it has "saved" me money after all.
#DisneyEconomics

Same here. We are done adding on for a while if not forever. We even started going to WDW less because we were getting a bit "Disneyed out".

 

[skier_pete]

I will add that buying RIV direct has either cured my addonitis or put it into a long term remission, so maybe it has "saved" me money after all.
#DisneyEconomics

Same here. We are done adding on for a while if not forever. We even started going to WDW less because we were getting a bit "Disneyed out".

I just bought another AKV resale contract, and I think my addonitis is cured as well. Possibly because I now have more points than I really need. (Not that we are "Disneyed Out" but that we can only go so often from 1200 miles away.)

 

[CaliAdventurer]

I think those of us plugged into DVC consider all the nuance whereas, the target market for direct (vacationers with less working knowledge) perhaps don’t. When I went on my first tour I had zero idea about moderate this or deluxe that .org otherwise and now that I do, I’m not in the direct market- only a DLR DVC can get me to buy direct. So how much is all of that influencing sales? I think less than we think. Resale restrictions are keeping current members from buying there for sure but newbies aren’t thinking about selling, I know i wouldn’t be. I believe the fact that it’s not open is slowing it down. Once it is, and folks start staying there, including DVC trade ins, it’s going to pop off- even resale.

For me, I love everything about the theming and everything I’ve seen so far. I’ve even toyed with a fixed week but know direct is silly (I have a blue card) so I’ll wait. I would totally buy a resale contract with eyes open for the right price. The way I look it is that of my 3 home resorts, 2 I wouldn’t trade out of anyway- VGC & VGF. So I’m already in a self imposed trading restriction. I don’t think I’ll be alone. Now am I willing to pay $140 which seems to be the resale price atm, no. But $100 like the first buyer? Yes, I would.

 

[sndral]

I’ve wanted an Epcot resort for awhile, but am not especially interested in BWV or BC. The Riviera could have worked even though I’m not really impressed with the photos I’ve seen of the resort. I do love the addition of the Skyliner, and am interested to see how convenient it is to use in real life.
The resale restrictions with Riviera are pretty much a deal killer for me at present. Plus Epcot’s going to be a massive construction mess for the foreseeable future, so my ‘need’ for an Epcot resort has waned a bit.

 

[Bing Showei]

I’ve wanted an Epcot resort for awhile, but am not especially interested in BWV or BC. The Riviera could have worked even though I’m not really impressed with the photos I’ve seen of the resort. I do love the addition of the Skyliner, and am interested to see how convenient it is to use in real life.
The resale restrictions with Riviera are pretty much a deal killer for me at present. Plus Epcot’s going to be a massive construction mess for the foreseeable future, so my ‘need’ for an Epcot resort has waned a bit.

I’ve always felt that the focus over the last decade on MK resorts has left a tremendous pent-up demand for an Epcot resort as a lot of current owners are deterred from the 2042 RTU. My guess is that Disney projected Riviera to address that demand, and that hasn’t materialized to the degree they were hoping.

I wish there was an easy way to see, outside of the first 30-60 days of sales, how many buyers are existing owners vs. new owners. For most first-time owners, the appeal of a “proper membership” (vs. a resale white card membership) can tip the scales pretty easily when you factor in incentives, such a simple, straightforward retail experience, and security for future changes. For current pre-2019-restriction-owners, the hurdle for Disney are all the new unknowns introduced alongside s new product that may not offer the safety-net out Disney timeshare owners have come to expect.

The little bubble we are in here is that most of us are owners with most of us (direct or resale) already having access, in theory, at 7 months at all future resorts. Riviera may end up selling out amazingly as those unknowns to resolve themselves among the current ownership. Until December 16, everything is speculation, of course.

I will say pretty confidently that even with the same restrictions, if there was suddenly a BWV expansion with a new wing sold with a 50 year RTU, there wouldn’t be nearly as many owners hesitant about buying in.

 

[skier_pete]

I do agree with what @Bing Showei is saying - the resale restrictions are probably not much of a deterrant to a lot of "first time" direct buyers, but I think for more veteran owners they are. And having followed DVC for the last 5.5 years, I have to see we are seeing that. When VGF, Poly, and CCV - previous owners were lining up and agree to buy points at these resorts. For Riviera, while there are still some veterans buying in, a lot seem to be sitting on the sidelines for a number of reasons, including location, design, not being open yet, as well as the restrictions.

I know it's just wishful thinking on my part - but if Disney is concerned about sales - they can't change the location or design. They can get the resort open of course, but if that doesn't boost sales, there only choice besides lowering prices is to change the restrictions. This why I said EVERY SINGLE PERSON that talks to Riviera and doesn't want to buy because of the restrictions should LET THEM KNOW. Our voices CAN make a difference when it comes to Disney and them earning money.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

You don't go out to a steak dinner and calculate the delta between the steak and a burger and figure out how much that decision will end up costing you 10, 20, 30 years from now

speak for yourself!

Steak = $50, burger = $20. $50 - 20 = $30. Lets say we invest that at 7% for 30 years....thats $228.37 in future dollars. Now lets discount that into today's dollars using an inflation rate of 2%... thats $126.08..... Using the generic 4% withdrawal rate rule, I can withdraw $5.04 every year for about 30 years. That damn steak just cost me $151.20 more than the burger..... That better have been one damn good steak.

But ya, as others have mentioned, Riviera is unlike other recent new resorts. It is not attached to a previous running resort. When AKL, BLT, PVB, VGF, were up for presale, people knew what they were buying. Riviera is it's own thing. I'm sure there are many people that are waiting for it to open to make the determination whether it really is for them or not.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I have a few thoughts on how sales are going. I think it is pretty tough to look at the sales and compare them to other properties simply because Riviera is completely different than any other property previously built. It is not connected to an already existing hotel but has a new and unique transportation option. We're all trying to predict the future, myself included, as to how well this resort will do, and I think there are just too many variables. I hope we made the right decision purchasing when the best incentives were offered initially, but maybe we didn't. A few concerns from a new owner:
1) better incentives offered in the future, and we should've waited
2) we don't like the resort and want to sell when the economy is fine but can't for what we consider a reasonable price
3) the economy tanks, and we are really screwed because of the restrictions

OTOH, maybe the resort will be amazing, and people will be lining up to purchase once they stay there. I definitely feel like we took a gamble on this resort buying brand new before it was opened. I have heard some people say they have never regretted doing the very same thing with other resorts in the past. Others say they sold shortly after staying for the first time because it wasn't for them. I hope Riviera is a slam dunk as I purchased there, but we fully appreciate that it may not work out how we hoped which is always the concern when buying before a resort opens and even more so when they introduce new restrictions. Sadly, even if sales are not moving along as well as DVD wants, I highly doubt they'll remove the restrictions. They have already decided this is their path to more revenue, and they will stay the course, hell or high water. I truly hope that I am wrong about this, and we all get a shock with these idiotic restrictions being removed, but I am not holding my breath.

I bought BLT site unseen when it first went on sale, small 50 pt. contract. Nine months later DVC changes the point chart, now my 50 pts. wont work. I rented for a couple of years, but eventually sold it. Sold it for what we purchased at, less commission, broke even. I was so mad at DVC. Even with the best research, we are never prepared for what DVC can do or change.