Rack rates:
CR $509 - $712
Poly $590 - $844
These are the range of non CL average prices currently listed on the WDW website for your dates. Discounts in the distant past have been good, but recently not so much. A great discount would be like 30% off, but realistically (like GADisneyDad14 said), there could be nothing at all or limited room categories at maybe 10 - 20 % off.
You do have options, though. You could still look at renting points for BLT or the Poly studios, I think.
OR
If you are interested in staying at the CR or Poly regardless of discount, then I would book the category and price that you are comfortable with now. The lowest prices above would be the standard room rates. Room categories do sell out.
If you have a budget and want to decide on the room after discounts are released, I would book a resort with a room priced at a level that you are comfortable with now and change if a discount makes a move to a preferred resort more in line with your requirements. That way you won't be stuck looking for a room with many rooms sold out after discounts are released.
We typically book a value or a moderate for the entire stay at first, then change to a split stay with a deluxe, depending upon discounts when they are released. That way we can still book dining and FP+ at the appropriate times and we know that we have somewhere to stay that we can be happy with, if necessary, regardless of discounts.
The Poly and the CR are two of our favourite resorts! I am certain that you will love either one.
Enjoy!