Poll: Has the 2042 Bubble Burst?

[Pinnochio]

But that doesn't address how nice and/or convenient it is to stay at BWV or Beach Club. How do you put a pricetag on walking to Epcot for Food&Wine, etc?

convenience = priceless

 

[Diz.knee]

Wonder what the current BWV refurb will do to resale prices mid to late next year? I am guessing a 10% to 15% bump, all other things (like the economy, interest rates, etc) being equal. We own a 250 point contract there and will likely sell it. Hate to give it up as we LOVE walking into EPCOT and DHS, but my financial brain kicks in and begins to think of the contract more like an asset than an entertainment expense. If we can get 75% of our initial cost back before the value gets hit hard (maybe between years 10-15), then we will. We already purchased at AKV and CCV because we like the theming at those resorts better than any, and they have lots of remaining years. So we lose the location benefit of BWV but gain the benefits of better theming (IMHO) and time. Trade offs!

It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next ten years with 2042 resort prices. It will be even more interesting to see what direction Disney goes with expiring resorts. That is anybody's guess. I doubt even Disney knows.

FWIW, you might be in the target audience for RIV resale if you can get it around $120/pt, depending on contract size, etc.

We started RIV direct, then I got add-on-itis at AKV, PBV, and BCV. Walking to Epcot/HS is novel but Skyliner is a different novelty of near-equal convenience and RIV really is a nice resort.

Note: I am excited to see how Stormalong Bay access a main driver of price difference in resales of BCV compared to BWV trends over the next 5-10 years as people get itchier about the window of 2042 closing in. Also super intrigued/dreading what DVD offers as New Points as 2042 contracts expire but those resorts live on.

 

[Cfabar1]

Note: I am excited to see how Stormalong Bay access a main driver of price difference in resales of BCV compared to BWV trends over the next 5-10 years as people get itchier about the window of 2042 closing in. Also super intrigued/dreading what DVD offers as New Points as 2042 contracts expire but those resorts live on.

I think Disney will have to be careful. It is a lot of resorts expiring at once, with many different utilities and uses. Also, most customers are going to ask why is Boardwalk going from 9 points a night to 19 points a night without significant upgrades/enhancements.

They could stagger out the purchasing/Reno process, but that is going to cost them money too. Right now those rooms generate revenue in many ways. If the resort is closed, that will be different.

WDW just completed its 50th Anniversary. The Contemporary was there for all 50 years, and I do not know of any immediate plans to demolish it. I point that out to say, WDW may be loathe to demolish the boardwalk resort, or the DVC Beach Club building or whatever just because it is 50 years old.

I maintain the most likely outcome is that they will switch to a “portfolio program” where all the points are placed in trust and you no longer have a home resort but access to a certain number of points in the trust. Trying to have buyers buy into a choice between OKW, Beach Club, Boardwalk, Boulder Ridge, to say nothing of HHI and VB all at once seems way too complicated. This may happen well before 2042 or it may happen right around then. I think that’s the cleanest way to do it around the 2042 expiration though, just switch ALL of the expiring resorts into a new program Which basically eliminates the deeded access to a home resort.

 

[BruinEd03]

I think Disney will have to be careful. It is a lot of resorts expiring at once, with many different utilities and uses. Also, most customers are going to ask why is Boardwalk going from 9 points a night to 19 points a night without significant upgrades/enhancements.

They could stagger out the purchasing/Reno process, but that is going to cost them money too. Right now those rooms generate revenue in many ways. If the resort is closed, that will be different.

WDW just completed its 50th Anniversary. The Contemporary was there for all 50 years, and I do not know of any immediate plans to demolish it. I point that out to say, WDW may be loathe to demolish the boardwalk resort, or the DVC Beach Club building or whatever just because it is 50 years old.

I maintain the most likely outcome is that they will switch to a “portfolio program” where all the points are placed in trust and you no longer have a home resort but access to a certain number of points in the trust. Trying to have buyers buy into a choice between OKW, Beach Club, Boardwalk, Boulder Ridge, to say nothing of HHI and VB all at once seems way too complicated. This may happen well before 2042 or it may happen right around then. I think that’s the cleanest way to do it around the 2042 expiration though, just switch ALL of the expiring resorts into a new program Which basically eliminates the deeded access to a home resort.

The "trust" or "portfolio program" may be "convenient" but I don't think it would function as a timeshare at that point. Timeshares generally have a real estate component to i. A "Trust" or "portfolio program" would have no real estate component to it.

My guess is that Disney will take over possession of the resorts and rent some out as hotels for a while. For example, they could keep beach club DVC as part of the beach club hotel. However, they could then totally demolish or rebuild a new boardwalk hotel/DVC. Then when that is completed, demolish the Beach Club and redo everything.

 

[DonMacGregor]

My guess is that Disney will take over possession of the resorts and rent some out as hotels for a while. For example, they could keep beach club DVC as part of the beach club hotel. However, they could then totally demolish or rebuild a new boardwalk hotel/DVC. Then when that is completed, demolish the Beach Club and redo everything.

As I've said a few times now, it's going to be the flood of points that will be the biggest challenge. DVC can't just pause new resort construction and hope they can sell folks on 50 year old resorts alone (regardless of how well they are renovated), so in addition to whatever new inventory they are selling in 2042, even assuming they sell off Vero Beach and Hilton Head, they'll still be stuck with what today is represented by nearly 9.8 millions points (and that's not including whatever is still left of 2042 points at OKW).

Sure, the three remaining 2042's (BRV, BWW, BCV) will take time to renovate, and would likely be staggered and rented out for cash as they wait their turn, but that only raises the other problem of flooding the market with additional hotel rooms, which even today is the last thing they want or need.

Disney will either be stuck with a ton of timeshare inventory that can't be sold pending refurbishment, a ton of converted cash hotel room inventory, or if they decide to bite the financial bullet and renovate them all at once, at least two rather prominent shuttered hotels right on Crescent Lake.

 

[Cfabar1]

I wonder if they’ll try selling them as is and say they’ll be renovated along the way.

 

[BeachClub2014]

As I've said a few times now, it's going to be the flood of points that will be the biggest challenge. DVC can't just pause new resort construction and hope they can sell folks on 50 year old resorts alone (regardless of how well they are renovated), so in addition to whatever new inventory they are selling in 2042, even assuming they sell off Vero Beach and Hilton Head, they'll still be stuck with what today is represented by nearly 9.8 millions points (and that's not including whatever is still left of 2042 points at OKW).

Sure, the three remaining 2042's (BRV, BWW, BCV) will take time to renovate, and would likely be staggered and rented out for cash as they wait their turn, but that only raises the other problem of flooding the market with additional hotel rooms, which even today is the last thing they want or need.

Disney will either be stuck with a ton of timeshare inventory that can't be sold pending refurbishment, a ton of converted cash hotel room inventory, or if they decide to bite the financial bullet and renovate them all at once, at least two rather prominent shuttered hotels right on Crescent Lake.

Great points.

Extending OKW to 2057 has saddled DVC with the resort infrastructure for an additional 15 years beyond BWV and BCV. I bet now DVC is wishing that they could have just shuttered OKW in 2042 and have a re-furbished/new BCV and BWV come online one after the other.

I just don't see how they can immediately replace all of the expiring resorts in 2042. Way too many points.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Great points.

Extending OKW to 2057 has saddled DVC with the resort infrastructure for an additional 15 years beyond BWV and BCV. I bet now DVC is wishing that they could have just shuttered OKW in 2042 and have a re-furbished/new BCV and BWV come online one after the other.

I just don't see how they can immediately replace all of the expiring resorts in 2042. Way too many points.

To be clear: I do understand that they won't have a ton of former 2042 "points". The "points" will be gone. They will, however, have the rooms, and in the coin of the DVC realm, those rooms equal either points (ownership interests) or cash (hotel rooms to be rented). Either way you look at it, they'll have a massive influx of rooms to do something with.

Shutting all the resorts down concurrently solves the inventory issue, but there is no offset for the income associated with either managing the resorts as DVC or renting the rooms for cash. It also creates a huge optics issue, especially on Crescent Lake with two of the three resorts affected. Shutting them down one at a time drags the conversion process as a whole out for years.

Once they do finish a refurb on a resort, it will need to be re-inserted into active sales concurrent with whatever "new" resorts DVC is selling at the time. Flooding the market with a massive amount of new points doesn't make sense, so it's likely they'd have to anticipate sitting on cash rooms for a considerable amount of time after each resort comes back online, and rolling out only some of the rooms at a time for sales.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

BCV and BWV both have huge fans (such as myself) who would probably be happy to buy points in 2042 for a resort that doesn’t come online until 2044 or 2045, I personally would probably would even may MFs if I could bank my points until the UY it opens . I think this could be very attractive paired with a “See Ya Real Soon” discount for existing owners or some other aggressive promotion for people who don’t own at Crescent Lake yet.

This obviously wouldn’t replace the operating income from managing the resorts during the years of refurbishment though. Seems like it would have made more sense (and still could) to stagger the resorts they intend to keep by 2/3/4 years, and perhaps they still could. I would think it would be pretty easy to sell 3-5 year “add on” contracts to existing DVC members (with first dibs going to existing resort owners) at $20-40/pt?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The number of 2042 resorts is the only reason I could possibly see DVC trying to figure out a way to offer an extension. It will be too many rooms returned to Disney resorts inventory all at once unless Disney suddenly finds itself wanting to have them in their cash inventory. That would be a change from their current trend. 2042 is still a long way off and many things could happen to change their thought process.

 

[BeachClub2014]

To be clear: I do understand that they won't have a ton of former 2042 "points". The "points" will be gone. They will, however, have the rooms, and in the coin of the DVC realm, those rooms equal either points (ownership interests) or cash (hotel rooms to be rented). Either way you look at it, they'll have a massive influx of rooms to do something with.

Shutting all the resorts down concurrently solves the inventory issue, but it doesn't replace the income associated with either managing the resorts as DVC or renting the rooms for cash. It also creates a huge optics issue, especially on Crescent Lake with two of the three resorts affected. Shutting them down one at a time drags the conversion process as a whole out for years.

Once they do finish a refurb on a resort, it will need to be re-inserted into active sales concurrent with whatever "new" resorts DVC is selling at the time. Flooding the market with a massive amount of new points doesn't make sense, so it's likely they'd have to anticipate sitting on cash rooms for a considerable amount of time after each resort comes back online, and rolling out only some of the rooms at a time for sales.

I understood what you meant, and I think we are pretty much making the same point: in 2042, DVC gets a whole lot of rooms back into inventory, and it doesn't seem either feasible or plausible that they just turn around and immediately start selling those same points again for the same inventory. It's way too many points to try and sell all at once, and if history is any indicator, they will already have at least one (if not more) other resort in active sales. I think it's also safe to assume that in the next iteration of whatever a BCV and BWV look like, the point charts won't be nearly as attractive as they are today, which impacts the number of points.

It'll be interesting to see what does happen.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I understood what you meant, and I think we are pretty much making the same point: in 2042, DVC gets a whole lot of rooms back into inventory, and it doesn't seem either feasible or plausible that they just turn around and immediately start selling those same points again for the same inventory. It's way too many points to try and sell all at once, and if history is any indicator, they will already have at least one (if not more) other resort in active sales. I think it's also safe to assume that in the next iteration of whatever a BCV and BWV look like, the point charts won't be nearly as attractive as they are today, which impacts the number of points.

It'll be interesting to see what does happen.

Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest you didn't. I was just adding on to my original post that I made late last night.

 

[tom1944]

Were all of the 2042 resorts built in 1992?

If not could they extend them out to 50 years so they have staggered expiration dates?

 

[DonMacGregor]

The number of 2042 resorts is the only reason I could possibly see DVC trying to figure out a way to offer an extension. It will be too many rooms returned to Disney resorts inventory all at once unless Disney suddenly finds itself wanting to have them in their cash inventory. That would be a change from their current trend. 2042 is still a long way off and many things could happen to change their thought process.

That's why I still can't get my head around them closing 3+ resorts at WDW contemporaneously. I can see them taking whatever 2042 points are left at OKW and just renting out rooms for cash, but even that's not going to be sustainable for 15 years. Even now, Disney seems disinclined to build more cash rooms.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Were all of the 2042 resorts built in 1992?

If not could they extend them out to 50 years so they have staggered expiration dates?

BWV opened in 1996, BRV opened in 2000, and BCV opened in 2002. So the contracts are considerably shorter at BRV and BCV.

 

[Cfabar1]

Were all of the 2042 resorts built in 1992?

If not could they extend them out to 50 years so they have staggered expiration dates?

They could have done this. Here are the opening years:

OKW - 1991
VB - 1995
HHI - 1996
BWV - 1996
WL - BR - 2000
BC - 2002

However, they didn't. I doubt they'd want to extend anything at this point for the reasons related to the OKW extension, and also don't want to give away free years worth of points.

I think the bigger issue will be selling all the points, not the renovations. There's no law that would force them to renovate anything unless it wasn't up to code. People would buy into most of these locations on the promise that a future renovation at a disney standard is coming I think...

VB and HHI are wild cards as to whether they will stay at all. If there is room, I could see BC and WL doing expansions/conversions/renovations of cash inventory in advance then flipping these rooms into cash rooms and making those rooms the new DVC product. BW could essentially do the same thing if it wanted.

Nobody knows what DVC will even look like by then. we always look at 20 years being here soon. The executives making those decisions possibly don't even work at disney yet....

 

[kanerf]

I suspect DVC will offer some sort of deal to existing owners before the 2042 expiration. After all, they will probably want the MFs to continue coming in. They might, for example, allow you to swap your ownership to another currently selling resort for a certain fee per point. I don't think anything will happen until about 5 years out though.

 

[BeachClub2014]

They could have done this. Here are the opening years:

OKW - 1991
VB - 1995
HHI - 1996
BWV - 1996
WL - BR - 2000
BC - 2002

However, they didn't. I doubt they'd want to extend anything at this point for the reasons related to the OKW extension, and also don't want to give away free years worth of points.

I think the bigger issue will be selling all the points, not the renovations. There's no law that would force them to renovate anything unless it wasn't up to code. People would buy into most of these locations on the promise that a future renovation at a disney standard is coming I think...

VB and HHI are wild cards as to whether they will stay at all. If there is room, I could see BC and WL doing expansions/conversions/renovations of cash inventory in advance then flipping these rooms into cash rooms and making those rooms the new DVC product. BW could essentially do the same thing if it wanted.

Nobody knows what DVC will even look like by then. we always look at 20 years being here soon. The executives making those decisions possibly don't even work at disney yet....

Agreed. I also think another potential barrier to offering an extension on any of the legacy resorts is restrictions on resale points. If DVC maintains its commitment to restrictions, the last thing they'd want to do is extend the contracts of resorts that don't have them.

 

[DonMacGregor]

However, they didn't. I doubt they'd want to extend anything at this point for the reasons related to the OKW extension, and also don't want to give away free years worth of points.

I think the bigger issue will be selling all the points, not the renovations. There's no law that would force them to renovate anything unless it wasn't up to code. People would buy into most of these locations on the promise that a future renovation at a disney standard is coming I think...

I think they could/would have much better luck extending contracts 5 years prior to expiration, when people are faced with the reality that they only have 4 useable years left on their contract (and if they are planners, only 3 years after their currently scheduled trips). The OKW fiasco was caused, in great part, by DVC trying to sell owners on an extension that didn't even go into effect for another 35 years. That was just plain stupid. No FOMO, no sense of urgency, nothing.

As to the renovations, I think we really need to look at the resorts in the context of other resort hotels and the amenities they will be offering in the 2040's. I strongly believe that the traveling public (and timeshare owners) will be accustomed to and expect much more from their hotel accommodations by then. I don't think some new paint and drywall will be acceptable. Plus, I'm guessing that building codes, particularly energy codes, will have evolved such that significant work will be required to bring all building systems up to then-current code standards. Not to mention 2 more decades of exposure to Florida weather. I just don't think a hard-goods flip will seal the deal.

 

[tom1944]

BWV opened in 1996, BRV opened in 2000, and BCV opened in 2002. So the contracts are considerably shorter at BRV and BCV.

If they just kept the term to 50 year contracts they would have minimized this issue.

But as mentioned the person making the decision to end the contracts all in 2042 must have had a reason.

That person probably is long gone but maybe they left the reasoning and plan for 2042 behind.