New Monorail Fleet Ordered?

[jknezek]

Yep, that’s why anything Disney gets would have to be custom. The upside to going with Bombardier is they have worked together in the past and know the Disney system.

Custom creates the same problem they have now. Once the spares are gone, they are going to be making their own parts to keep it running. So they better contract with Bombardier to not just build them some old tech monorails, but also to build them 20 years worth of spares while they are at it. Bombardier isn't going to want to make one off spares for this system any more than they do for the Mark VIs Disney is already running.

 

[rteetz]

Custom creates the same problem they have now. Once the spares are gone, they are going to be making their own parts to keep it running. So they better contract with Bombardier to not just build them some old tech monorails, but also to build them 20 years worth of spares while they are at it. Bombardier isn't going to want to make one off spares for this system any more than they do for the Mark VIs Disney is already running.

Bombardier isn’t making stuff for them now as it is. Disney makes it in house. Bombardier and Disney haven’t had a great relationship in recent years. When the monorail crash happened and trains needed to be rebuilt Bombardier didn’t do it Disney did. That said of course Disney doesn’t have the facilities to built a new fleet.

 

[jknezek]

Bombardier isn’t making stuff for them now as it is. Disney makes it in house. Bombardier and Disney haven’t had a great relationship in recent years. When the monorail crash happened and trains needed to be rebuilt Bombardier didn’t do it Disney did. That said of course Disney doesn’t have the facilities to built a new fleet.

Yes. But that's a problem you would hope to solve when buying a whole new system. Support and spares are usually a pretty big component of this kind of contract. It doesn't seem like that will be an extensive option for WDW. I'm sure Bombardier is focused on the 300. They have several systems installed or on tap and they were heavily lauded for that system. What Disney requires is a dead end for both them and Bombardier. That usually costs the buyer big time.

I hate to say this because I love the monorails. They are iconic and important to WDW. But re-ordering what will work is a losing proposition. Running what they have is a losing proposition. The business case for the monorails really stinks going forward. The more I look, the more I'm surprised they aren't going a different direction. The 50th may be the savior of the monorail. It's too close at this point to do something different, but it's too far away to keep stretching the existing rolling stock. If this inflection point had come five years ago or just after the 50th, it wouldn't have surprised me if the monorail was replaced.

 

[rteetz]

Yes. But that's a problem you would hope to solve when buying a whole new system. Support and spares are usually a pretty big component of this kind of contract. It doesn't seem like that will be an extensive option for WDW. I'm sure Bombardier is focused on the 300. They have several systems installed or on tap and they were heavily lauded for that system. What Disney requires is a dead end for both them and Bombardier. That usually costs the buyer big time.

I hate to say this because I love the monorails. They are iconic and important to WDW. But re-ordering what will work is a losing proposition. Running what they have is a losing proposition. The business case for the monorails really stinks going forward. The more I look, the more I'm surprised they aren't going a different direction. The 50th may be the savior of the monorail. It's too close at this point to do something different, but it's too far away to keep stretching the existing rolling stock. If this inflection point had come five years ago or just after the 50th, it wouldn't have surprised me if the monorail was replaced.

The question would be then what could you replace it with and does costs of new trains look better than costs of removing monorail infrastructure. I don’t think they would just leave the monorail infrastructure if they were to get rid of it.

That said we aren’t looking at removal we are looking at new trains. I think because of the unique aspect of the Disney system that is why they are looking at multiple companies to build new trains rather than just going with Bombardier automatically.

I would imagine if they go with Bombardier which seems like the more likely contractor that it would be a modified version of either the 200 or 300 or even something in between. That way the look and most components are things that Bombardier and Disney can have spare parts for or something they would know how to make it it’s needed.

 

[RRB]

Here is a great link that details a huge problem WDW has with ordering new monorails: http://www.monorails.org/tMspages/TPBeams.html

Look at the beam size comparison. There is no current off the shelf suspension/drive system that will work. Not only are the beams the wrong size, but they run on the wrong voltage, with the Mark VI running on 600vdc and the Innovia 300 running on 750 vdc. Then there are questions about load bearing of the WDW beams being too small for the 300 system, and the fact that the 300 system simply won't fit in WDW stations.

Disney may end up buying all new monorails, but they won't be based on the most current and advanced system like the Innovia 300. Instead they are probably going to have to beg Bombardier to go back and build the trains they made for Las Vegas in 2004, either called the Mark VI-M or the Innovia 200 Monorail (yes, I know, they use 200 for something else now, but they used to use it for this). Those trains were essentially the Mark VI, and they were the last commercially available trains to run on the correct beam, as the LV system was based on WDW and even originally used repainted Mark IVs Disney sold them.

Unfortunately those cars for the 2004 LV monorail are neither the most up to date, nor the most reliable of monorails, suffering all kinds of problems that delayed the system 2 years.

How much is Bombardier going to throttle WDW for to get them to go back and build to old tech? I'd say Disney could go in with the LV monorail and do a larger order, but that system has gone bankrupt twice and probably is not looking for new trains...

Rock and a hard place for Disney.

There is an interesting article in the above listed website specifically about the WDW monorails. Here is a tidbit from that article....The Mark IV trains were actively marketed for possible transit use up until the mid-1980s. At that time Disney Imagineers decided it was time to replace the fleet of Mark IV trains with similar-looking, but updated designs. They put out for bid the manufacturing of the new trains. Bombardier Mass Transit Division of Canada won the bid to manufacture 12 new trains at a reported cost of $3.575 million per train. These were to be called the Mark VI. These current trains have been in service since the first trains arrived in 1989. If 12 trains cost $43 million in 1989, what will they cost in today's dollars? They're not charging enough for hotel parking!

 

[OKW Lover]

It will likely be a gradual switch. I don’t think they’d shut down the entire system and switch the trains.

Exactly. Which means that the new monorails will have to be physically compatible with the current beams and stations.

 

[jknezek]

If 12 trains cost $43 million in 1989, what will they cost in today's dollars? They're not charging enough for hotel parking!

Getting information on the rolling stock cost of the Innovia 300 is almost impossible unfortunately. Most contracts tie in more than just the cost of the trains and don't break them out. For example, Thailand agreed to buy 72 4 car Innovia 300 trains as part of a $3.3Billion rail project, but I can never find the cost of the trains in that contract. Bombardier's portion of the LV monorail was just shy of 190MM, but that included much more than just the 9 trains. Those contracts include the gear to make the trains run, spares, support, and more. A lot depends on the size of the contract as well, shipping costs, and "extraneous expenses". So it's almost impossible to know. WDW, as a public company, will probably give us one of the better looks as they will have to disclose some of the costs in their financials, though how deep in the weeds they get is up to them. I'm sure Bombardier would rather the number not get publicized at all. Too cheap and they lose negotiating leverage in the next contract, too expensive and they may not get inquiries for business.

 

[Flayre]

So let's just take the assumption the 300 is what is coming. 200 has been out of production for awhile, machining is gone, and they aren't bringing it back just for Disney. It's like Delta asking Boeing for a couple hundred more 717s after they've been out of production for 10 years. Boeing told them never happening, I would expect the same here with the 200. Anyway, I would imagine the rumor was tipped off by the parties like entering a MOU/LOI but like large aircraft orders, they aren't going to announce anything for awhile until all the particulars are worked out.

The big issue I think we all see is compatibility with the existing rails in place - both size and power. I would imagine this is the issue Bombardier is tasked with right now on how to make the 300 work on the existing beams. They have roughly an inch to accommodate to fit the existing rails, and I would imagine they'll find a way to make it work. The other part of this is the power production on the existing rails. There will likely need to be some upgrading done on the lines to accommodate the newer trains - probably regardless of who they go with. So here I would expect a multiple phased approach. There are 3 lines right now, they'll likely take them down one at a time to facilitate the upgrades. I would expect the Express Line would go down first, as it would not impact the resorts immediately. Then I would think the resort line would go down next, and maybe some modifications to the stations with temporary ramps/bridges to use the Express train to load at the resorts. Finally Epcot would be last and the resorts that rely on connecting at the TTC would just see bus service stepped up/added in.

An additional part to the compatibility issue is the size of the trains themselves. Innovia 300 is 3.1 m wide, Mark VI is 2.7m; 300 is 4.05 m tail the Mark VI is 3.53m. So outside of some significant changes to the design of the train (very unlikely), there are also going to need to be modifications done to the stations themselves.

This is all stuff Disney has likely known for awhile and just kept kicking the can. At some point you just need to bite the bullet and get it done instead of letting costs continue to increase by delaying.

 

[rteetz]

An additional part to the compatibility issue is the size of the trains themselves. Innovia 300 is 3.1 m wide, Mark VI is 2.7m; 300 is 4.05 m tail the Mark VI is 3.53m. So outside of some significant changes to the design of the train (very unlikely), there are also going to need to be modifications done to the stations themselves.

Station modifications could be likely. I know with all of this there has been some rumors of Disney wanting the trains and platforms to be more flush so wheel chairs and strollers can board easier without the ramps.

 

[jknezek]

The big issue I think we all see is compatibility with the existing rails in place - both size and power. I would imagine this is the issue Bombardier is tasked with right now on how to make the 300 work on the existing beams. They have roughly an inch to accommodate to fit the existing rails, and I would imagine they'll find a way to make it work. The other part of this is the power production on the existing rails. There will likely need to be some upgrading done on the lines to accommodate the newer trains - probably regardless of who they go with. So here I would expect a multiple phased approach. There are 3 lines right now, they'll likely take them down one at a time to facilitate the upgrades. I would expect the Express Line would go down first, as it would not impact the resorts immediately. Then I would think the resort line would go down next, and maybe some modifications to the stations with temporary ramps/bridges to use the Express train to load at the resorts. Finally Epcot would be last and the resorts that rely on connecting at the TTC would just see bus service stepped up/added in.

An additional part to the compatibility issue is the size of the trains themselves. Innovia 300 is 3.1 m wide, Mark VI is 2.7m; 300 is 4.05 m tail the Mark VI is 3.53m. So outside of some significant changes to the design of the train (very unlikely), there are also going to need to be modifications done to the stations themselves.

Don't forget about beam height. The WDW beams are 11 inches too short. 48" vs 59" needed for the 300s. And the 300s are massively heavier, which is partly why they require bigger beams. I am hard pressed to believe the 300s will fit in any conceivable way. Frankly I'm not sure you could run the coaches safely side by side on the tracks given the difference in coach widths.

I really think this will be a custom running gear system that is as close as possible to the current running gear. Even if that means going back to the old plans. Monorails are much less of a mass production product than airplanes, so I think it's likely they will find someone to make running gear based on the Mark VIs. The up front costs of having that done is probably cheaper than redoing the electrical beam work, the stations, and customizing all aspects of the 300 chassis. Plus you wouldn't have to take lines down, which is a huge thing for WDW.

What you are suggesting just has too many drawbacks in cost and downtime. Custom, though old style, running gear kills the need for almost all of that except one time manufacturing setups and design. Hopefully they can use some kind of off the shelf coach to minimize the damage the cost of the running gear is going to create, but I don't think the 300s are the answer here.

 

[rteetz]

Don't forget about beam height. The WDW beams are 11 inches too short. 48" vs 59" needed for the 300s. And the 300s are massively heavier, which is partly why they require bigger beams. I am hard pressed to believe the 300s will fit in any conceivable way. Frankly I'm not sure you could run the coaches safely side by side on the tracks given the difference in coach widths.

I really think this will be a custom running gear system that is as close as possible to the current running gear. Even if that means going back to the old plans. Monorails are much less of a mass production product than airplanes, so I think it's likely they will find someone to make running gear based on the Mark VIs. The up front costs of having that done is probably cheaper than redoing the electrical beam work, the stations, and customizing all aspects of the 300 chassis. Plus you wouldn't have to take lines down, which is a huge thing for WDW.

What you are suggesting just has too many drawbacks in cost and downtime. Custom, though old style, running gear kills the need for almost all of that except one time manufacturing setups and design. Hopefully they can use some kind of off the shelf coach to minimize the damage the cost of the running gear is going to create, but I don't think the 300s are the answer here.

I would guess they get something closer to the 200s because of this. The 200s were based off of the WDW system after all.

 

[Flayre]

Don't forget about beam height. The WDW beams are 11 inches too short. 48" vs 59" needed for the 300s. And the 300s are massively heavier, which is partly why they require bigger beams. I am hard pressed to believe the 300s will fit in any conceivable way. Frankly I'm not sure you could run the coaches safely side by side on the tracks given the difference in coach widths.

I really think this will be a custom running gear system that is as close as possible to the current running gear. Even if that means going back to the old plans. Monorails are much less of a mass production product than airplanes, so I think it's likely they will find someone to make running gear based on the Mark VIs. The up front costs of having that done is probably cheaper than redoing the electrical beam work, the stations, and customizing all aspects of the 300 chassis. Plus you wouldn't have to take lines down, which is a huge thing for WDW.

What you are suggesting just has too many drawbacks in cost and downtime. Custom, though old style, running gear kills the need for almost all of that except one time manufacturing setups and design. Hopefully they can use some kind of off the shelf coach to minimize the damage the cost of the running gear is going to create, but I don't think the 300s are the answer here.

Yeah this is definitely not going to be an easy upgrade, but we also need to get away from the thinking "they'll just go with the 200s." The 200s are dead, but I'm sure they are going to find any possible way to make the 300s work. They'll likely start with the 300 and then work with their engineers to find out what they can do to modify it. Much like what they do with their aircraft when they start working on variants for Hot/High Ops, extended range, short field ops, etc.

 

[OKW Lover]

There will likely need to be some upgrading done on the lines to accommodate the newer trains - probably regardless of who they go with. So here I would expect a multiple phased approach. There are 3 lines right now, they'll likely take them down one at a time to facilitate the upgrades. I would expect the Express Line would go down first, as it would not impact the resorts immediately. Then I would think the resort line would go down next, and maybe some modifications to the stations with temporary ramps/bridges to use the Express train to load at the resorts. Finally Epcot would be last and the resorts that rely on connecting at the TTC would just see bus service stepped up/added in.

The problem with this incremental upgrade is that the trains (old and new) all need to operate over the same section of track between the roundhouse behind the MK and the switch beam between the Contemporary and the MK and further traverse to the TTC and the switch beam to the Epcot loop.

I would imagine this is the issue Bombardier is tasked with right now on how to make the 300 work on the existing beams. They have roughly an inch to accommodate to fit the existing rails, and I would imagine they'll find a way to make it work.

Its not just the dimensions of the existing rails but also the spacing between them so the new cars don't side-swipe a train going in the other direction on the express/resort MK loop. Also, the floor height needs to match the existing stations.

The other part of this is the power production on the existing rails.

Big issue if they are going to be heavier, thus requiring more power to get going. Maybe some advanced technology like regenerative breaking and battery/capacitor energy storage will alleviate this though.

 

[jknezek]

Big issue if they are going to be heavier, thus requiring more power to get going. Maybe some advanced technology like regenerative breaking and battery/capacitor energy storage will alleviate this though.

Regenerative braking was part of the Mark IV and VI model. It was groundbreaking at the time. I'm sure efficiency is up these days, but that system is already being used.

 

[intertile]

On top of everything else mentioned, the contemporary I would think is a big problem...openings only have so much room, and the platform is quite narrow as it is.

With everything that needs to be modified or changed to make the 300 system work, I can't see them going with it. Most likely whoever makes the trains for Disney will make a hybrid of 200/300 that is custom just for Disney. I'm sure Disney will upgrade the power and make changes to the stations for W/C and stroller accessibility, but I can't see them widening or changing the beams in any significant way. The system is too large and has too many "moving parts"...it would be more cost effective to scrap the whole thing and rebuild it than to modify the beams and stations on the whole system.

The other option is, they could be upgrading/rebuilding the MK loops, and scrapping the epcot line in favor of busses (eventually creating another gondola line between epcot and ttc).

 

[hertamaniac]

Big issue if they are going to be heavier, thus requiring more power to get going. Maybe some advanced technology like regenerative breaking and battery/capacitor energy storage will alleviate this though.

I can chime in on this aspect of the discussion. Running a 3rd rail is one way to harvest energy during off-throttle and/or deceleration events. Often, a station can host a storage bank which can be used to help propel (discharge) the energy and translate to traction motors. An example of this is on a SEPTA line partnered with Saft batteries (http://www.septa.org/media/releases/2016/1-21-16.html).

Clearly, this would need to be on MW scale, but choosing a battery technology that can handle the oppressive heat in central Florida is a monumental task for this application.

 

[RRB]

I am impressed with the level of technical knowledge and expertise found in many of the posts in the thread. Disney should consult this thread on what to do!

 

[OKW Lover]

Running a 3rd rail is one way to harvest energy during off-throttle and/or deceleration events. Often, a station can host a storage bank which can be used to help propel (discharge) the energy and translate to traction motors.

The current (no pun intended) system operates off a "third rail". You can see the buss attached to the side the beam way.

 

[KYMickey]

It will likely be a gradual switch. I don’t think they’d shut down the entire system and switch the trains.

Assuming the trains are not going to require any modifications to the track, which seems to be a given at this point, it certainly seems like they could switch in one train at a time when they arrived on site. The only possible if you would be the controls but since the existing trains have had their controls recently upgraded I'm sure the new ones could be compatible without much of an issue.

 

[hertamaniac]

The current (no pun intended) system operates off a "third rail". You can see the buss attached to the side the beam way.

I will see (not to doubt your statement, but I like first hand/eye knowledge). I'm going to be at WDW next week and will snap some shots of this (plus I promised @SorcererHeidi a few pics of Flamingo Crossings).

If that is the case, then parsing the voltage to a storage bank is doable. But, sizing and specifying the batteries/caps could be challenging. I don't want to spin this into a technical discussion (members tend to shy away from threads), but charge rate acceptance is the key for the energy harvesting via dynamic braking.