Maybe a long-term closure is better for Members...

[Brian Noble]

Exactly, wearing a mask protects others from the wearer. In that case, if everyone is wearing a mask, isn't everyone protected from everyone else?

I don't know, but (again) the CDC seems to think that masks alone are not sufficient. Neither does the public health agency of any other country, including those in the Pacific Rim who've dealt with this sort of thing before and whose citizens are already prone to wearing masks while ill.

But, you know, maybe you're right and they're all wrong? I don't know, because this isn't my field, but if I were a betting man, I'd be taking long odds against you vs. the hundreds or thousands of people who are experts in the field and do this for a living making the recommendations on behalf of those national public health agencies.

I don’t think there’s the stomach in our culture for that long of a delay. [...] So I think it’s much more of a question of what social distancing would mean. I’m currently expecting masks, virtual queues, and some limit on attendance

It certainly is going to be interesting to see how we adjust to what clearly seems like it will be a marathon, not a sprint. We were having this conversation yesterday about live sports. Suppose a stadium wanted to enforce a 6' radius around individual families of ticket holders? That means not only no one in the 3-4 seats to either side of you, but no one within maybe 2-3 rows in front or behind you. How do you do anything like this in e.g. the Jungle Cruise queue without having crowds limited to the size of Disney After Hours? I don't know.

 

[rkstocke5609]

I expect my “magic mask” idea will be adopted by Disney and that’s what you’ll get in the mail instead of a Magic band. Hopefully I’ll get a royalty....

 

[Matty B13]

At my work, essential workers are only required to wear a mask and gloves in order to perform duties where social distancing isn’t possible. So, I guess this could be used for guidance.

 

[Brett Wyman]

I live in a county with a decent outbreak occuing. This is the chance you will get the virus here, 0.00187, where again its a pretty decent outbreak. Of course there are tons of underreported cases. And of course sheltering is helping to keep that number down. But we have simply over played how many, as a percentage, get sick. At some point we just have to pull the bandaid, get out there and live. AND THEN shelter again if and when a spike occurs that the hospitals cant handle.

 

[Brian Noble]

This is the chance you will get the virus here, 0.00187, where again its a pretty decent outbreak.

Unfortunately, without some mitigation measures, that cases (and therefore chances of infection) double every three days, give or take. The math gets ugly very fast.

 

[4evryoung]

With all that said, after we cancelled our March trip I reserved one in August. But I’ve also been making dining reservations for early June in hopes that we can go then instead.

This sort of hedge-betting makes it harder for Disney to get a proper grasp of what demand is likely to look like. It makes their forward planning and economic crisis response much more woolly. For the health of the Company and the DVC product, it would probably be better if people didn't make speculative bookings at this point.

 

[ColonialMouse]

This sort of hedge-betting makes it harder for Disney to get a proper grasp of what demand is likely to look like. It makes their forward planning and economic crisis response much more woolly. For the health of the Company and the DVC product, it would probably be better if people didn't make speculative bookings at this point.

Honestly, I'm quite sure Disney spends a lot of time trying to understand real vs speculative booking patterns, and I'm sure they're pretty good at it. But in this case what concern could you have about my making June ADRs? I'm signaling to Disney that I'm willing/hoping to go in June if they are open/safety appears reasonable. So it seems like it's signaling exactly what they would want for forward planning.

If they really want to dive into it (statistically, not me in particular) I didn't cancel my August villa bookings and move them to June (my theory is August is more certain and June is a risk, so I'm not willing to jeopardize getting bookings back for August if they remain closed through June). So a statistician might see there are fewer hotel rentals than ADRs and infer something from that. (Honestly I checked a few days ago and could see 1BR availability at BCV for 10 out of 14 days in June where I was looking, and I think that says all you need to know about demand.)

At this point, though, everything is up in the air. The only reason an early June trip became a possibility is b/c our 1st grader's school district announced they would end instruction May 29 instead of June 16 this year. But I'm not sure they won't change their mind again as they've had a hard time getting e-learning going. At this point we are so far outside the normal DVC "I plan my vacations 12 months in advance so I'm ready for the 11-month window" that it's a whole different world.

Bruce

 

[Sandisw]

This sort of hedge-betting makes it harder for Disney to get a proper grasp of what demand is likely to look like. It makes their forward planning and economic crisis response much more woolly. For the health of the Company and the DVC product, it would probably be better if people didn't make speculative bookings at this point.

I am curious why you think that?

 

[4evryoung]

I am curious why you think that?

I understand why people re-book, but if Disney is using the pattern of re-bookings and reservations to try to predict when visitors will return then speculative bookings (e.g. the contributor suggesting that they are booking dining reservations for June when they don't have June resort reservation or flight (if they're not local), or people making tentative reservations when they don't know what the travel restrictions are in their state, gives a false estimate of likely demand.

On another thread, someone talks about cancelling or keeping a June reservation when there is a flight ban from their country to the U.S. There is no way they can faithfully re-book until the flight ban is lifted and airlines publish revised flight schedules/prices. They feel obliged to keep the original booking until Disney indicates whether or not their resort is open, because they would lose their deposit if they cancel. But the prospect of them being able to make that holiday in June is negligible. Disney would have a clearer idea of demand if they let that reservation, and others like it, be cancelled at no cost. When you have realistic picture of demand you can make more sensible and efficient decisions about staffing at parks, resort capacity that needs to be opened or shuttered, and a multitude of other things.

 

[Sandisw]

I understand why people re-book, but if Disney is using the pattern of re-bookings and reservations to try to predict when visitors will return then speculative bookings (e.g. the contributor suggesting that they are booking dining reservations for June when they don't have June resort reservation or flight (if they're not local), or people making tentative reservations whenthey don't know what the travel restrictions in their state, gives a false estimate of likely demand.

On another thread, someone talks about cancelling or keeping a June reservation when there is a flight ban from their country to the U.S. There is no way they can faithfully re-book until the flight ban is lifted and airlines publish revised flight schedules/prices. They feel obliged to keep the original booking until Disney indicates whether or not their resort is open, because they would lose their deposit if they cancel. But the prospect of them being able to make that holiday in June is negligible. Disney would have a clearer idea of demand if they let that reservation, and others like it, be cancelled at no cost. When you have realistic picture of demand you can make more sensible and efficient decisions about staffing at parks, resort capacity that needs to be opened or shuttered, and a multitude of other things.

Okay, DVC is a little different, IMO, They really need to keep the resorts closed as short of a time as possible, based on the nature of being a timeshare, They shouldn’t be treated the same way as what is happening under parks and resorts,

They wouldn’t be,,,snd shouldn’t be,,,deciding when to open DVC based on whether or not people are going to be there, DVCM has a duty to limit the closing to as short as possible considering health and safety. Once the state of emergency or any other local restrictions are lifted, then it seems they will be looking to open resorts in a reasonable time,

So, I do think DVC owners are in a different position because we need them open rather quickly because the longer they stay closed, the worse it will be for the membership.

I have June, Aug, Sept, Oct, Dec, and beyond booked. Not sure which ones will actually happen, but planning for them all.

 

[dsnymnkyuncle]

Moratorium on vacation home rentals, not hotels/time shares, until 4/30.

I had not seen this before. Do you still have a link?

 

[foreUT]

I had not seen this before. Do you still have a link?

Florida Executive Orders: EO-87 and EO-103. Governor DeSantis signed first 3/27 and extension to 4/30 on 4/10. EO-87 states the exclusion of timeshares from the EO. The Order claimed it was to halt internatIonal travelers.

 

[4evryoung]

Okay, DVC is a little different, IMO, They really need to keep the resorts closed as short of a time as possible, based on the nature of being a timeshare, They shouldn’t be treated the same way as what is happening under parks and resorts,

They wouldn’t be,,,snd shouldn’t be,,,deciding when to open DVC based on whether or not people are going to be there, DVCM has a duty to limit the closing to as short as possible considering health and safety. Once the state of emergency or any other local restrictions are lifted, then it seems they will be looking to open resorts in a reasonable time,

So, I do think DVC owners are in a different position because we need them open rather quickly because the longer they stay closed, the worse it will be for the membership.

I have June, Aug, Sept, Oct, Dec, and beyond booked. Not sure which ones will actually happen, but planning for them all.

I think we will have to disagree. DVC is in dire need of real data about members'realistic intentions because they have to make fairly urgent decisions about how to manage the points shortfall, given the millions of points that could not be used during the closure. You have made "paper bookings" across 5 months, but they have no way of knowing which of those are likely to translate into a firm booking. Yes, DVC gets the message that you want to return, but they haven't a clue when your realistic return date is. If your speculative booking pattern is mirrored across a sizeable percentage of the membership, you are really muddying the waters for their business modelers and planners.

 

[Sandisw]

I think we will have to disagree. DVC is in dire need of real data about members'realistic intentions because they have to make fairly urgent decisions about how to manage the points shortfall, given the millions of points that could not be used during the closure. You have made "paper bookings" across 5 months, but they have no way of knowing which of those are likely to translate into a firm booking. Yes, DVC gets the message that you want to return, but they haven't a clue when your realistic return date is. If your speculative booking pattern is mirrored across a sizeable percentage of the membership, you are really muddying the waters for their business modelers and planners.

I was referring more to the contract obligations they have to owners, They are required to keep the closures as short as possible, and it’s not dependent on who is going and who is not,

They are legally obligated to open DVC resorts once the level of health and safety of owners and others is at a level deemed safe. IMO, once the government has lifted the state of emergency, the contract provision that was used to allow the closure...emergency powers...is gone. That would mean that the opening need to happen in a reasonable amount of time,

DVCM would not be deciding based on whether people are traveling or not. They open the resorts to stop the loss of points but more importantly, because, per our contract, it needs to be done as soon as it can happen,

Disney can make other decisions for the parks and resorts, but DVCM has a responsibility to owners.

ETA: I do plan to attend, but it really doesn’t matter, Points have to be used so whether it’s speculative booking or not, owners booking rooms play no role at all in the legal decision that opens the resort.

 

[kittyab]

Maybe good for some DVC owners. Any savings will not be much
Not good for the 43K folks that were employed by Disney
Not good the the Orlando area, which depends on tourism
Not good for Disney shareholders. Reportedly Disney is losing $3M per day
Not good for any ancillary businesses that have Disney as a customer

This list goes on and on ...

I think lives are more important than dollars. Disney will recover, but dead is dead. No coming back from that.

 

[4evryoung]

ETA: I do plan to attend, but it really doesn’t matter, Points have to be used so whether it’s speculative booking or not, owners booking rooms play no role at all in the legal decision that opens the resort.

But they do play a part in the decisions taken about staffing levels, the services on offer (is one food outlet open or 4) , the number of buses per hour, or even if there are any buses, or are all pools open etc. All of these decisions are within DVC's gift regardless of whether rooms are available for bookings. If they get the decisions wrong and put on more services than are required, the membership may ultimately pay as dues would have to make up the loss in respect of costs versus takings.

 

[Sandisw]

But they do play a part in the decisions taken about staffing levels, the services on offer (is one food outlet open or 4) , the number of buses per hour, or even if there are any buses, or are all pools open etc. All of these decisions are within DVC's gift regardless of whether rooms are available for bookings. If they get the decisions wrong and put on more services than are required, the membership may ultimately pay as dues would have to make up the loss in respect of costs versus takings.

DVC dues are set up to run at high occupancy, If anything, there might be reductions,

Point is, people have a right to book rooms whenever they believe they might be going and use points that need to be used.

Plus once opening announced, people will be back to canceling 31 days or more, like always,

 

[4evryoung]

DVC dues are set up to run at high occupancy, If anything, there might be reductions,

Point is, people have a right to book rooms whenever they believe they might be going and use points that need to be used.

Plus once opening announced, people will be back to canceling 31 days or more, like always,

Unicorn thinking. or "this is how it has always operated" does not help businesses during a pandemic.

 

[Sandisw]

Unicorn thinking. or "this is how it has always operated" does not help businesses during a pandemic.

My point is that the 2020 dues are already set.

As an owner, if things are delayed beyond June 1st, and there are not government orders in place any longer I will expect a good explanation from DVCM as to why the delay.

Again the contract is clear in what powers DVCM has when it closes and when it needs to be open. Nothing in the POS gives them the right to keep DVC resorts closed because occupancy is low.

 

[Spridell]

My point is that the 2020 dues are already set.

As an owner, if things are delayed beyond June 1st, and there are not government orders in place any longer I will expect a good explanation from DVCM as to why the delay.

Again the contract is clear in what powers DVCM has when it closes and when it needs to be open. Nothing in the POS gives them the right to keep DVC resorts closed because occupancy is low.

Also I believe (and tell me if I wrong or not) Disney is different than other timeshares as you ACTUALLY OWN a piece of property in Florida. So if all orders are lifted, legally you have a right to visit the property you own. Denying that right to visit with no "orders" in place can get a little dicey legal wise.

Again this is all on the LEGAL SIDE of things and nothing more.