Maybe a long-term closure is better for Members...

[lawboy2001]

It occurred to me today that:

• It's hard for me to imagine operating the Parks under any form of social distancing.
• Some form of at least intermittent social distancing is likely necessary until herd immunity takes hold.
• Herd immunity isn't going to happen until a vaccine is developed or a sizeable fraction of the population has "earned" immunity by being sick, and probably recently so.
• Most folks are saying a vaccine takes 1.5 years to develop, test, and scale up. Even if we started in January, we are talking mid-Summer 2021.
• Getting everyone sick quickly seems to require over-running our health care system; probably not a good idea.

So, it is at least possible that the theme parks will not open for a long time. Cedar Fair, a company that operates mostly seasonal parks (Knott's is year-round, but none of the others are) has extended all of its 2020 Season Passes through the end of 2021. I don't think they do that unless they are writing off most of the 2020 operating season, and that doesn't end in most places until late October.

If the Parks are closed, how many people want to go to WDW? Even a DVC owner might think twice. Yes the lodging is "paid for", but transportation and food aren't.

On the other hand, if the resorts are mothballed for say, six months (or longer), there might be real cost savings in operations and those savings can be passed on in the form of lower dues. Looking at OKW's resort budget, and rounding a bit:

Administration & Front Desk: $0.82
Housekeeping: $1.50
Member Activities: $0.24
Transportation: $1.09

That's almost half of annual Dues. Forgo collection of some capital reserves (because there is no wear-and-tear) and a closure might well result in real savings to Members in the form of rebated/credited Dues. Some of that isn't going to be pure savings, there is probably some administrative work that still has to happen, but there might be other costs that go down to balance that: utilities would go down, and the management fee is a percentage of operating costs IIRC.

So, the question is: would you feel differently about a long term closure with points expiring if (a) the theme parks were closed anyway and (b) you'd get a non-trivial fraction of your dues rebated?

The parks will open, in due course (June, July) and everyone will be required to wear masks. That's how it will work. That's how you get social distancing without being socially distant.

 

[lawboy2001]

On the other hand, if the resorts are mothballed for say, six months (or longer), there might be real cost savings in operations and those savings can be passed on in the form of lower dues. Looking at OKW's resort budget, and rounding a bit:

Administration & Front Desk: $0.82
Housekeeping: $1.50
Member Activities: $0.24
Transportation: $1.09

That's almost half of annual Dues.

I'm sorry, but I think your logic is pretty faulty, because by the logic of your analysis, a longer closure would be even better, because it would lead to even greater dues savings. Dues are the price we pay to enjoy the resorts. If the resorts are closed, we don't get any benefit. ("Hey members! Good news! Your dues are cut 50%. Now the bad news. We are closed all year so you can't use your points.")

And the longer the closure goes on, the more bankruptcy looms.

 

[GGGT]

..................................................................
I couldn’t care less about how much they’re losing.They didn't care how much they were charging for experiences that were once free................

Yes, this exactly.

 

[Heather07438]

Exactly, they had no issues raising the prices of literally every.single.thing. Maybe they can use some of that to provide us with the experience we prepaid for. I’m a AP too and the 2x’s increases for the last 3? years gave no consideration to the ones being charged.

I couldn’t care less about how much they’re losing.They didn't care how much they were charging for experiences that were once free and or just saw an increase. They just saw $$$$$. Maybe just maybe, they will go back to treating us as guest and not another $$$$$.

The insane price increases since 2015/16 aggravated me too. Traditionally WDW prices for tickets, food, merch and resorts were high but easy to see the value. That was turned on its head to the point that almost every purchase needed to be questioned first. I definitely understand the resentment. It was not magical needing to constantly be on the defense where the alternative was getting ripped off in many situations.

I felt like something would come along and whack WDW and force them to re-think customer value and adjust. Until then we'd be careful not to mindlessly dump $ at WDW. But now since that 'something' came along and is 10 times bigger than I expected, I find myself feeling oddly protective toward WDW and don't want them to suffer more than what is unavoidable.

You're right, they didn't care when pricing pretzels at $7 or reducing merch quality while doubling the price, etc. Maybe WDW deserved a reality check but this virus punished them way beyond that. My family loves Disney so at this point we just want to see them continue to flourish.

It's like that bully you wish would get a taste of their own medicine and then they get hit by car and both legs broken and they lost a foot. It's more punishment than they deserved, lol.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

The insane price increases since 2015/16 aggravated me too. Traditionally WDW prices for tickets, food, merch and resorts were high but easy to see the value. That was turned on its head to the point that almost every purchase needed to be questioned first. I definitely understand the resentment. It was not magical needing to constantly be on the defense where the alternative was getting ripped off in many situations.

I felt like something would come along and whack WDW and force them to re-think customer value and adjust. Until then we'd be careful not to mindlessly dump $ at WDW. But now since that 'something' came along and is 10 times bigger than I expected, I find myself feeling oddly protective toward WDW and don't want them to suffer more than what is unavoidable.

You're right, they didn't care when pricing pretzels at $7 or reducing merch quality while doubling the price, etc. Maybe WDW deserved a reality check but this virus punished them way beyond that. My family loves Disney so at this point we just want to see them continue to flourish.

It's like that bully you wish would get a taste of their own medicine and then they get hit by car and both legs broken and they lost a foot. It's more punishment than they deserved, lol.

Very well said! I agree that the cost of admission has gotten a little out of hand especially when half of the park is under construction so there is much less to see and do or the new attraction is so popular it takes three trips before you ever get to see the new attraction for the first time! We don't usually buy things like pretzels in the park so I can't say anything about that. I can say that after spending a week or two at WDW and moving on to a new location it becomes so clear how expensive WDW is on the cost of dinning. I really don't understand why they have to be so expensive I just hope it doesn't get worse now that they have been closed down for so long. I hope they don't try to recoup there looses all at one time and at the expense of their guests.

 

[Heather07438]

Very well said! I agree that the cost of admission has gotten a little out of hand especially when half of the park is under construction so there is much less to see and do or the new attraction is so popular it takes three trips before you ever get to see the new attraction for the first time! We don't usually buy things like pretzels in the park so I can't say anything about that. I can say that after spending a week or two at WDW and moving on to a new location it becomes so clear how expensive WDW is on the cost of dinning. I really don't understand why they have to be so expensive I just hope it doesn't get worse now that they have been closed down for so long. I hope they don't try to recoup there looses all at one time and at the expense of their guests.

Yeah, I'm worried about getting less for even more money. But then I think about how they already priced up everything to maximum tolerance levels.

It's likely they'll need to actively lure more guests into the park over the next year. There may be a surge around re-open but overall attendance will suffer the next year. Many families have less expendable money and others have vulnerabilities that'll keep them away. *eta- and international guests will decline as well

WDW will need to balance recouping losses with maintaining attendance. If prices were already hitting tolerance levels, raising them will drive more guests away. My hunch thinks WDW will go big with 'spend more save more' types of offers.

 

[foreUT]

My assumption was that they were under a mandatory closure in Florida.

Moratorium on vacation home rentals, not hotels/time shares, until 4/30.

 

[DVC92]

The parks will open, in due course (June, July) and everyone will be required to wear masks. That's how it will work. That's how you get social distancing without being socially distant.

It's a little difficult to eat when wearing a mask. Also, where is everyone going to get masks due to lack of supply or w/o price gouging? Is Disney going to give masks to all park entrants?

 

[4evryoung]

Is Disney going to give masks to all park entrants?

Perhaps you can choose the color of your free masks on line when you order your magic bands -- paying extra for a customized AP or DVC design?

 

[Brian Noble]

[Wearing a mask is] how you get social distancing without being socially distant.

That is not my understanding.

I'm sorry, but I think your logic is pretty faulty, because by the logic of your analysis, a longer closure would be even better, because it would lead to even greater dues savings.

I am only asking the question if folks would rather have the Resorts be closed while the Parks are closed. Obviously that's not steady state, and would not make sense when the Parks were open.

 

[Sandisw]

That is not my understanding.


I am only asking the question if folks would rather have the Resorts be closed while the Parks are closed. Obviously that's not steady state, and would not make sense when the Parks were open.

I think they have to open as soon as it is safe, if you read the POS. That to me is what should be guiding all of the decisions for the DVC resorts,

Since we are not guaranteed parks, I do not want them to keep resorts closed for longer. To me, that would be a breach of their duty.

 

[Deb & Bill]

The parks will open, in due course (June, July) and everyone will be required to wear masks. That's how it will work. That's how you get social distancing without being socially distant.

No, masks will cause lots of problems for many people. They don't have child sized masks or respirators. Masks only protect others from you, not you from others. You need a respirator to protect you from others. In hot, humid weather, they need to plan on increasing the size of Reedy Creek FD/EMTs because people will be dropping like flies from wearing a mask or a respirator in the heat of the day. You'll need to replace that mask multiple times a day if they want you to wear it every time you are in a park. Dining and food carts will close because you cannot eat with a mask or respirator on.

 

[lawboy2001]

Masks only protect others from you, not you from others. You need a respirator to protect you from others. In hot, humid weather, they need to plan on increasing the size of Reedy Creek FD/EMTs because people will be dropping like flies from wearing a mask or a respirator in the heat of the day. You'll need to replace that mask multiple times a day if they want you to wear it every time you are in a park. Dining and food carts will close because you cannot eat with a mask or respirator on.

Exactly, wearing a mask protects others from the wearer. In that case, if everyone is wearing a mask, isn't everyone protected from everyone else? Why do you say hat a mask protects others from me, but others need to be wearing a respirator in order to give me the same protection.

There are issues and challenges with masks. I'm just saying that I foresee that the parks will open sooner than later, but that mask wearing will be mandatory. If we wait until it is absolutely safe, we will be waiting until 2021 and that is simply not tenable from a commercial or economic standpoint.

 

[4evryoung]

I am only asking the question if folks would rather have the Resorts be closed while the Parks are closed.

I think there may be a sizeable group of people who might be willing to write-off a loss of $800-$1,000 in 2019/20 dues on unused points, rather than pay another $5-6,000 for travel, meals etc only to have a much restricted, resort only vacation.

 

[rkstocke5609]

It's a little difficult to eat when wearing a mask. Also, where is everyone going to get masks due to lack of supply or w/o price gouging? Is Disney going to give masks to all park entrants?

I’ve heard rumor of a new mask-gic-band device that combines the need for a mask with your magic band. The new magic mask continually monitors your temperature and the moment you maintain 100 degrees for more than 30 minutes storm troopers whip in and “escort” you to a Minnie van that immediately delivers you to the nearest DVC tour/sales office where you are quarantined for 3 hours (unless you agree to purchase points sooner than that)

 

[ColonialMouse]

It occurred to me today that:

• It's hard for me to imagine operating the Parks under any form of social distancing.

So, the question is: would you feel differently about a long term closure with points expiring if (a) the theme parks were closed anyway and (b) you'd get a non-trivial fraction of your dues rebated?

Brian, personally I would actually be quite happy to wait until next year to do the theme parks again. I think it would be safer (whether b/c of medical treatments or herd immunity) and there would be more time to plan (both for vacationers and for Disney to build the infra to support new practices). I don’t think they could extend the expiration of the timeshares, but if we got 3/4 of our dues back, I’d be OK with the trade off.

However, I don’t think there’s the stomach in our culture for that long of a delay. There’s no sign Florida will restrict them for that long, and Disney fundamentally can’t wait any longer than Florida makes them (stockholder obligations if not real problems with debt). So I think it’s much more of a question of what social distancing would mean. I’m currently expecting masks, virtual queues, and some limit on attendance (maybe even reserving hours to enter a park?).

With all that said, after we cancelled our March trip I reserved one in August. But I’ve also been making dining reservations for early June in hopes that we can go then instead. There isn’t appetite in my family to delay going for another year and losing all the points we would lose (September UY with previously banked points) and burning the rest of the APs without a second trip. Unfortunately my MiL won’t be coming with us (both b/c of Coronavirus and b/c she needs knee surgery that’s now been postponed indefinitely). So we’ll get a 1BR for longer than normal and plan more of a relaxing time than normal, partially b/c we can and partially in anticipation that things will be different. We are considering driving just in case something changes/we get sick while there so we can get home again.

Bruce

 

[Lori Duck]

I should add that I am from the metro NY area and have zero interest in going to WDW until the governor lifts the mandatory 14 day quarantine order.

We're waiting to see what happens on that 14 day mandatory quarantine order too as we have a res at Vero Beach Resort in early June! They need to make a decision soon. Hope they will since beaches are open I hear.

 

[keishashadow]

WDW will need to balance recouping losses with maintaining attendance. If prices were already hitting tolerance levels, raising them will drive more guests away. My hunch thinks WDW will go big with 'spend more save more' types of offers.

Let’s just say I was glad to see Iger step back up to the plate. Disney is good at making money, I’m sure they have imagineered several strategies to figure out how to stay solvent & will be adaptable.

Wonder if there’s a vegas line on whether they will be offering different Disney themed face masks for sale?

I’ve heard rumor of a new mask-gic-band device that combines the need for a mask with your magic band. The new magic mask continually monitors your temperature and the moment you maintain 100 degrees for more than 30 minutes storm troopers whip in and “escort” you to a Minnie van that immediately delivers you to the nearest DVC tour/sales office where you are quarantined for 3 hours (unless you agree to purchase points sooner than that)

You had me there, morning giggle is much appreciated.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I think if we find out how long people are immune after being infected, we will have a better idea of how the future looks. Antibody tests are getting rolled out now. We are going to see that tons of people have antibodies that didn't even get "sick". If I had some reassurance that I was immune, I'd jump right on a Disney trip the minute parks open. Low park attendance and everyone being cautious about handwashing and wearing masks to cover their coughs...sounds great to me!

 

[Ms.Minnie]

For those who are wondering where to get masks which are currently not available at stores (as far as I know) there are numerous sites online with patterns and directions on how to make a mask. There are many types of mask to choose from and they appear to be pretty easy to make. The Surgeon General was on Fox News one day and showed how to make a mask from an old tee-shirt with no sewing required. All you need is an old tee-shirt, scissors and two rubber bands. I made one of these and it does work.

Since I think we are probable going to have to wear masks for a while I'm planning to making new masks from one of the many patterns available on line. The only challenge I see is getting the materials needed to make the mask such as fabric, thin elastic and possibly some thin metal strips for the nose area of mask if I choose that type of mask. At any rate where there's a will there's a way!

It would fun ( Iguess, if you call wearing a mask fun) if Disney did supply Disney masks. FYI - there is lots of Disney fabric at JoAnn's Fabric but they require you to buy at minimum 1 yard which is way more then you would need to make one mask.