It was my expectation that about 30% of M runners and 40% of HM runners put the highest non-POT estimate (this still remains to be seen). With that being said, if you put 5:30-6:00, I'm estimating s4. The release times will be staggered by the rate of runners. So it's looking like some corrals will be quite large and others small. I had assumed prior that s3 would be 4:30-5:00 and 5:00-5:30. But this bib number data looks to me like 6:00-6:30 and 6:30-7:00 is where the combo should occur. If that happens then 5:30-6:00 will be s5 with something like a 9-15 min head start on the balloon ladies.
Here's where we currently stand:
View attachment 635541
There are only 1500+100+800 (~2400) bibs that put 6:00-7:00 as an estimate as it stands now. That's about 15% of the field for something that used to make up 30% of the field on average when in year's past they had the opportunity to put 5:30-6:00 if they truly wanted to.