Marathon Weekend 2022

What advice is that?

Being woefully unprepared isn't from following any advice it's from a lack of preparation. The chance of a winter blast is unlikely not impossible. Anyone who wants to invest their time and energy during the holidays into the unlikely can still do so but extended forecasts give a peek into what is most likely. It doesnt make them useless and it doesnt make them concrete but they can and should steer every participant to know what is most likely.

Florida weather has shown itself to be much more variable and subject to extreme swings on short notice than much of the country. Looking at the forecast today and saying it’s unlikely to change significantly (either towards hotter or colder) is just incorrect and steers people in the direction of a false sense of security, encouraging them to be unprepared.
 
All I can say is that as a Floridian, I know better, but that 2017 forecast seemed so solid, I didn't pack for cold weather and I suffered. 2018's week-out forecast was dicey, as I recall, but remembering 2017, I did bring cold weather gear and was very glad I had it! 2019? Brought the cold weather gear and didn't need it, for the marathon, anyway. Left it all packed and brought it back home and had zero regrets.

As always, YMMV: we all have different tolerances for different weather conditions!
 
Be aware that your repeat test may well still be positive and it won’t mean you are contagious. For some people, tests can continue to return as positive for up to 6 months after a known infection. Others will get a clear negative within a couple of weeks. As long as you complete the appropriate quarantine time and have no symptoms, a positive test doesn’t have to dictate your decision to participate.

thanks for this! I had no idea. Everything is so confusing with all of this.
 
Florida weather has shown itself to be much more variable and subject to extreme swings on short notice than much of the country. Looking at the forecast today and saying it’s unlikely to change significantly (either towards hotter or colder) is just incorrect and steers people in the direction of a false sense of security, encouraging them to be unprepared.
You're reminding me of 2017.

5k and 10k days were pretty good, race time it was in the 50s. 1/2 marathon Saturday was cancelled because of a thunderstorm. Sunday was 36 degrees at the start.

So things can change in a hurry!
 
Bad news- no idea how I’m going to finish dopey with basically no running since dec 15.
In the hopes of encouraging you, not all hope is lost. My sister completed Dopey in 2020 with even less training than you've had. Her last long run before the marathon was a half in September 2019. She did not try to do too much in the 3 races leading up to Dopey. I also note that character photos during the race may not be a good idea depending on how fast or slow you are during the race because those will add to your time each mile. The 16 minute per mile pace can be done with a brisk walk so don't fret yet. And if you have a proof of time placing you in an earlier corral, definitely use it.
 
I hate to beat a dead horse. But I’m so frustrated with the waiver process. After calling and sending emails with no replies I found my waiver online today. But when I tried to sign it I got a Stitch error and now my registration and waiver are no where to be found and it says I am not signed up for any runs. I guess I know now why the line at runner relations at the expo always seems so long.
 
You're entitled to your opinion but you can't just go around telling people they're wrong and they're misleading people just because you disagree. Normally, 10-15 day forecasts are accurate roughly 50% of the time. 7 day forecasts are about 80% accurate. Get to 5 days and it's about 90% accurate. So obviously the closer the race gets the more accurate it can be. Future models use more estimates and assumptions than what actual forecasts do. However, much like last year, Florida (in particularly central Florida) is experiencing a second straight winter La Nina which brings with it a 70% chance of warmer weather and less rain. So, as we get closer more decisions can be made and plans can be finalized but it is unarguable that there is evidence out there at all to indicate the most likely weather patterns. Every athlete and vacation goer should continue to monitor changing weather patterns and if you want to keep your baclava, wool socks, tights, beanie, mittens, fleece and hand warmers at the ready, go ahead. Chances are, those won't be needed this year.

Anyone who wants to ignore future models and forecasts can absolutely do so. Pack and bring everything you own. BUT, that doesn't mean the info and data can't be useful.
 
You're entitled to your opinion but you can't just go around telling people they're wrong and they're misleading people just because you disagree. Normally, 10-15 day forecasts are accurate roughly 50% of the time. 7 day forecasts are about 80% accurate. Get to 5 days and it's about 90% accurate. So obviously the closer the race gets the more accurate it can be. Future models use more estimates and assumptions than what actual forecasts do. However, much like last year, Florida (in particularly central Florida) is experiencing a second straight winter La Nina which brings with it a 70% chance of warmer weather and less rain. So, as we get closer more decisions can be made and plans can be finalized but it is unarguable that there is evidence out there at all to indicate the most likely weather patterns. Every athlete and vacation goer should continue to monitor changing weather patterns and if you want to keep your baclava, wool socks, tights, beanie, mittens, fleece and hand warmers at the ready, go ahead. Chances are, those won't be needed this year.

Anyone who wants to ignore future models and forecasts can absolutely do so. Pack and bring everything you own. BUT, that doesn't mean the info and data can't be useful.

The forecasts said cold weather gear wouldn’t be needed at all in 2017, either, so I will continue to advocate caution in trusting those forecasts. All those fancy national-data-based forecast accuracy percentages will be of no solace to the runner that plans for 50s-60s based on them and then is forced to run in 20 degree wind chills unprepared. Is it highly likely to happen, probably not, but the consequences outweigh the benefits of packing a little lighter because the forecast looks good.
 
I'm running the marathon for fun and having a good vacation afterwards, so I'm hoping for warm weather! I run better in cooler Temps (shorts and tank or t-shirt down to 45 degrees), but I'll take a warm marathon for warm vacation and pool weather!
 
I'm running the marathon for fun and having a good vacation afterwards, so I'm hoping for warm weather! I run better in cooler Temps (shorts and tank or t-shirt down to 45 degrees), but I'll take a warm marathon for warm vacation and pool weather!

Right!! Warmer weather to take advantage of pool, parks, and waiting around for hours before the running starts. Then cooler weather for a good run. Seems like that should be something Disney can conjure up.
 
Right!! Warmer weather to take advantage of pool, parks, and waiting around for hours before the running starts. Then cooler weather for a good run. Seems like that should be something Disney can conjure up.

They can...but they are going to sell it as an add-on. They're still working on the name. Somehow "Lightning Lane Weather" doesn't quite work for runners. Too 2017.;)
 
They can...but they are going to sell it as an add-on. They're still working on the name. Somehow "Lightning Lane Weather" doesn't quite work for runners. Too 2017.;)
Yeah . . . can we come up with a name which will magically create consistent 50 degree weather for race time? I would definitely pay extra for that.
 
I just don't want it to be like 2018. That was the year where we went down with almost all of DH's family for Christmas ('17) and then stayed for a 2nd week. It was our first ever on-site stay and it was SO COLD that all of the pools were closed the entire time. There was frost on the cars in the Cars section of AoA. I think it was pretty hot by Saturday/Sunday (HM/M) but at that point we were headed back home and the "super fun" 2nd week was mostly a bust because it was too cold to do anything except go to the parks and our kid were over it.

So I would pretty please like the goldilocks weather.


Also wishing everyone a happy holiday season. And if this isn't a happy time of year for you (whatever the reasons may be) I hope you can find a moment or 2 of tranquility.
 
I just don't want it to be like 2018. That was the year where we went down with almost all of DH's family for Christmas ('17) and then stayed for a 2nd week. It was our first ever on-site stay and it was SO COLD that all of the pools were closed the entire time. There was frost on the cars in the Cars section of AoA. I think it was pretty hot by Saturday/Sunday (HM/M) but at that point we were headed back home and the "super fun" 2nd week was mostly a bust because it was too cold to do anything except go to the parks and our kid were over it.

So I would pretty please like the goldilocks weather.


Also wishing everyone a happy holiday season. And if this isn't a happy time of year for you (whatever the reasons may be) I hope you can find a moment or 2 of tranquility.
2018 was perfect running weather, but I agree that it was very cold vacation weather.
 
Don't get me wrong, I've got Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter weather options in place for each race lol! I'm just not making any firm decisions yet. Know why? 2017. Remember how the forecast right up until that Friday was for the hottest Marathon ever? And how we absolutely froze when a freak cold front blew through, canceling the half and handing us a wind chill in the teens ahead of the full? Yeah, once bitten, twice shy: I'll just be bringing it all.

See also: 2010. #neverforget
Except this really isn’t the case at all. 2017 stands out as a stark example of how quickly things can change dramatically and how people following this type of advice ended up woefully unprepared for the conditions of the marathon.

#neverforget

2017 was my first marathon and my first runDisney event. That dramatic shift in weather is seared into my memory. I came down from Iowa, so I had adequate gear, but I pack for all weather for all marathon weekend trips, regardless of the forecast.
 

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