Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I could see most dates falling between 70-120pt/nt for 2BR TPV, where bungalows are 120-200pt/nt.

VGF difference from standard view studio to TPV studio is ~+50% points. That’s from where I estimated the 70-120pt/nt. It would be very hard for Poly Tower to charge more than that I think. If 2BR TPV started at 100pt/nt that would require 700 to over 1,000 pts just for a week and that would be very off putting. Bungalow is a unique animal in the DVC landscape.

Might be time for a new poll where we all make guesses about the point chart.

I agree that the bungalows are a unique product, but they’ve also showed us DVC doesn’t care about selling out their highest end rooms when they already have the points committed to them. I could see a couple weeks of low season that are less than 70 per night but going above 150 at peak seasons, and averaging above 100 per night.

(as you'll see in my lengthy post below, I revise my estimates of 2BD TPV to ~70 at the low end and ~120 on the high end... so basically what @Genie+ said!, but I think nights of 70 points or less will be few and far between)

 

[Cabius]

Might be time for a new poll where we all make guesses about the point chart.

I agree that the bungalows are a unique product, but they’ve also showed us DVC doesn’t care about selling out their highest end rooms when they already have the points committed to them. I could see a couple weeks of low season that are less than 70 per night but going above 150 at peak seasons, and averaging above 100 per night.

GVs are typically 2-2.5x the price of a 2BR. If that holds true, your prediction implies that a Poly Tower GV would average 200-250 points per night, or 300-375 during peak weeks. That is at least 50% more than at VGF, and seems much too high to be credible.

 

[T00dles]

The VGF ratios are approximately:

1 Br = 2 St
2 Br = 3 St
GV = 6 St

 

[GoingSince1990]

GVs are typically 2-2.5x the price of a 2BR. If that holds true, your prediction implies that a Poly Tower GV would average 200-250 points per night, or 300-375 during peak weeks. That is at least 50% more than at VGF, and seems much too high to be credible.

I would think that the cost of a Poly Tower GV would be fairly similar to that of a VGF GV, which in turn is similar in my experience to that of a Poly Bungalow. So based on this I would expect that the new GVs would be closer in cost to the Bungalows than the new 2 BRs.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Interesting post from the DVC Fan Facebook page:

Interesting because our Rep just told us that it will not be part of the existing association and showed us paperwork of 2 different association names

 

[JGINPL]

Interesting post from the DVC Fan Facebook page:

very interesting!!!

 

[mort1331]

I just hope all those banking on the same association are not too disappointed if its not.
I have no skin in the game,,,dont own there,,,not my vibe. I am that weird SSR owner that loves it there and OKW.
That said, I have a hard time thinking that Disney is going backwards. Making this the same association goes backwards. They are going forward with restrictions, higher point charts, and now possible a Trust. But not sure if the Trust is just because of the type of buildings for the cabins, we will see.
When they do start to sell,,we will get answers to all these. Until then lets keep dreaming and see if we wake up to euphoria or nightmare.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Interesting post from the DVC Fan Facebook page:

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

How many theme park view GVs are at VGF and how many will be in Poly Tower? We are mostly studio/1bed people, though I daydream of becoming a DVC tycoon and staying in the bungalows from time to time.

Just for fun, I looked up 2 bedroom rates across a few properties for July 5:
BWV (Boardwalk View): 47 points
BLT (Standard): 49
BLT (Theme Park View): 67
VGF (Standard View): 65
VGF (Lake View): 78
RIV (Standard): 59
RIV (Preferred): 70
PVB Bungalows: 157
AUL (OV): 84
VDH (Preferred): 73

Based on these numbers, a VGF TPV would be high 80s if it existed (and was "priced") at thet time VGF opened, but I would expect them to demand more points today. I could see DVC pushing the envelope and making it a TPV 2 bedroom over 100 points on a July 5 equivalent day, but it might be more conservative and stick to 85-95? If you consider that dues are ~10/pt and life of points maybe $5/yr, your actual cost of the 2Bd Villa at 100 points/night would be $1500 a night. Currently the only 2Bed you can book at any MK monorail resort at all on that date is a water (not theme park) view room at Contemporary for $2824 a night (if you have an annual pass, it’s over $3100 if you don’t)-- I could not find any night you could book a 1bed or 2bed suite at Poly, but their Theme Park View (hotel room! not even 1bed) is $980 for July 5 (and most of June and July), so I presume the rates on those 2bed would be over $2000/night as well.

I think the high end of my earlier stated range may be too aggressive, but I would expect 2BD TPV to be approaching or over 100 points much of the year, if only because they already do not have enough large suite inventory on the hotel side and they aren't adding that many large TPV villas. At minimum, I would expect them to price the TPVs high enough that commercial renters can't cannibalize hotel pricing by renting for 50-75% of the cost of an equivalent hotel/1bd/2bd.

 

[davidhr]

Interesting post from the DVC Fan Facebook page:

lol I must admit this is getting funny for me now.

The people celebrating should wait just a bit longer just in case.

 

[Cabius]

lol I must admit this is getting funny for me now.

The people celebrating should wait just a bit longer just in case.

brb, trying to re-cork my champagne bottle

 

[DonMacGregor]

lol I must admit this is getting funny for me now.

The people celebrating should wait just a bit longer just in case.

As far as free entertainment goes, you can’t beat it.

 

[davidhr]

I also have to say that whatever happens, DVD has handled this horribly. It’s ridiculous that agents are giving unconfirmed conflicting information.

 

[Sandisw]

Interesting post from the DVC Fan Facebook page:

Interesting for sure and all I will add is i am not going to believe which way it will go until its official, like in POS offical, and I have said, I can see us being in for surprises.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Interesting post from the DVC Fan Facebook page:

Seriously though, what is happening with guides? Why is there such varied training and information disseminated? This is the stuff that will get DVC into trouble. I preferred when they were way more secretive and had stricter enforcement of what they could and couldn’t say regarding the product.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

While the rest of this crew is flip-flopping on whether or not PVB will become a new association, I am flip-flopping on whether or not I want it to be. We don't own PVB but we enjoy staying at the longhouses and at some point hope to start staying at the bungalows. If the new Tower point chart is aggressive (and I see Disney as having every possible motivation to make it aggressive), then I don't want it combined because I think it will become extremely difficult to book the PVB longhouses at 7mo, because a lot of people will be budgeting for standard view (or pool view) rooms only to realize that they went quickly at the 11m window and need to book two longhouse studios instead.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Seriously though, what is happening with guides? Why is there such varied training and information disseminated? This is the stuff that will get DVC into trouble. I preferred when they were way more secretive and had stricter enforcement of what they could and couldn’t say regarding the product.

I wouldn't be so quick to blame the guides because a lot of us DVC fans are extremely emotionally invested and a single anecdote could be someone making up claims because they are mad at Disney. Unless we hear something very soon from DVD, I will be very suspicious that there are guides out there showing "two different association names" printed out this far in advance of possible sales.

 

[Sandisw]

Seriously though, what is happening with guides? Why is there such varied training and information disseminated? This is the stuff that will get DVC into trouble. I preferred when they were way more secretive and had stricter enforcement of what they could and couldn’t say regarding the product.

I think it’s disappointing that DVD is being so wish washy. Guide have been told to refer only to what legal has given them and it’s strange ethst some have gone beyond that

As I shared, they will not go beyond confirmed that in December the current plan was PVB, but every person I have interacted with has not gone beyond that and also made sure I understood that it as said “the plan right now” so it was subject to change.

Now, not saying it will, but when you get reports like above it tells you DVd is still content to let speculation occur thst things could end up different.

The piece I think is very interesting is the they did let someone buy a resale at $112/point and that blows my mind that if status quo happens, that they allowed it go that low.

 

[mkatsy]

I'm back from my latest stroll through the comptroller's database and here are the last 4 DVC direct VGF sales before the DBPR approved the amendment to the license on 7/16/21.

7/1/21 100 points in 2E @ $250 pp
6/30/21 25 points in 3A @ $250pp
6/21/21 150 points in 3A @ $250pp
6/7/21 200 points in 4A @ $250pp [FIFTY THOUSAND DOLLARS - OUCH]

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I wouldn't be so quick to blame the guides because a lot of us DVC fans are extremely emotionally invested and a single anecdote could be someone making up claims because they are mad at Disney. Unless we hear something very soon from DVD, I will be very suspicious that there are guides out there showing "two different association names" printed out this far in advance of possible sales.

This is fair. I had a similar thought reading that statement that maybe it’s just someone annoyed and making it up to be contrarian but if true, I agree with @Sandisw and others that DVD has handled this whole thing badly and could have quickly squashed all this by either correcting or solidifying Chang’s initial statement.