They have a singular opportunity to crush the mouse. Chapek is a bean counter with zero vision and the Disney faithful are angry. Plus the company has zero plans to launch a proactive response to epic universe as is evidenced by the crickets heard at D23. Right now Disney is all about short term $$ and not thinking strategically.
So if I’m Universal I get aggressive. Before Epic universe is even built, I’d announce a fourth park. Say that the shovels would start on that park before Epic is even open. Now’s the time. Chapek is asleep at the wheel and within less than a decade you can be on nearly equal footing with Disney . Here’s why I like this strategy.
- timing is right, Disney leadership sucks
- it would tie Disney’s hands as to how they could response since universal would have most of the construction resources tied up for many years
- Disney fans are ripe for the taking as they are tired of getting penny pinched and would laud the decision.
- Disney would be shocked and caught flat footed. I’m sure they are not expecting to respond with anything major until Epic U is complete. Now they’d be forced to respond earlier but their options would be very limited as resources would already be under contract from universal.
This decision would not be without risk of course. Economy is unstable right now , and capital investment is more expensive with rates up, and this would put them in the red for the short term.
But imo it would be a bold and timely move. Anyway what do y’all think??
Personally, I think Disney is more than willing to let Universal take some of the steam away from them. Disney has several long-term problems that need to be addressed/are being addressed by the Chapek era (for what it's worth, I think Chapek is getting a lot of negative attention due to Covid, and a lot of mess his previous CEO's left him, remember this is a guy that got announced for CEO the same month Disney shutdown for Covid).
With that out of the way, here is my flawed arm-chair side-seat driving take as the Disney CEO and reasons to not worry about EPIC Universe, and instead focus on the positives of waiting out the negative they current see themselves in.
1. Universal NEEDS a 3rd gate for expansion, Disney just doesn't. We saw this with all 4 parks in recent years, New Fantasy at MK, Frozen at Epcot, Pandora at AK, SW:GE and ToyStory at HS. All of these replaced or expanded onto existing lands without the need of a new park. Universal did this with Harry Potter, but doesn't have space to do that again currently. However, as it stands Disney still has several areas that need to be reimagined or seriously updated at each park. Dino-land at AK, Tomorrowland, Frontierland, and Fantasyland at MK, Epocts entire front half of the park, HS also has plenty of space to add in with other ideas.
2. The average length of a US family vacation just isn't growing to justify a 5th gate. Unless families start taking 6,7,8 day vacations to Florida they aren't going to have time to visit a 5th Disney park.
3. Staffing, we've all seen the staffing shortages, and there are only so many people working in the Orlando area that both Disney and Universal can tap for labor. The college program is great, but regular staff is needed for the in-between times when new CP's are getting up to speed.
4. Disney can still tap into increasing prices on guests to make up for the missed revenue from a 5th gate. We all complain about crowds, but less people to serve while making more money is a win for Disney.
5. A potential recession is Looming, and if it hits like 2001 or 2008, Disney doesn't have a huge construction bill they need to recuperate costs on. If we see the crash of 08 again, a lot of people aren't going to be going to Universals new park without some deep discounts. It'll be a very different story from the long lines at the opening of SW:GE or Hagrid's we saw these last few years.
6. The Disney vacation market has changed. The reason a "year" at Disney lasts 18 months, is because that was the average time between visits for a family going to Disney World. That's not the case anymore. For many it's now a once-in-a-lifetime, or every 3-5 years. I'm an avid Disney fan that went regularly until I started my own family a few years ago. I haven't been to a Disney park since Pandora was announced. My next visit, I'll be walking through Pandora, Galaxy's Edge, Toy Story, New Fantasyland, and a completed revamped Epcot for the 1st time.
7. Social Media has changed the need for new content at the park. It used to be exciting to see a Disney park visit on your favorite TV show. Now I can pull up several social media producers that show me everything Disney when I have that urge. I can watch videos from a park bench and feel like I'm at the park. I can listen to people discuss the latest food or merchandise and talk about what is great or isn't about the parks. Sure, I'm not there, but I'm still getting my Disney fix without spending the $$$.
8. If Disney really starts feeling the heat, they can produce a park rather quickly., but they don't feel that need. Disney can hire the same contractors Universal has if they want and can pay out the same prices to get construction done quickly. They've got the resources to tap into if needed, but aren't because it's not a concern for them.