StephPlum
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Feb 1, 2011
IDK. I'm not an alarmist,also not an ostrich with head in the sand type. It 'feels' to me like this is a media induced fear.... Is this virus a real thing? Yes. Does it kill some people? Yes. Is it killing people at the same rate as the 'average' flu that is always present,each and every year? No,not even close. And yet,here we are. (not this thread specifically) in full blown panic mode...the stock market, any sort of travel to any place, buying survival supplies like we all just figured out that things like this can and do happen regularly.... I'm just unsure how to think or really react to most of this currently,especially concerning travel of any sort.
You beat me to it @DisMommyTX . Statistics can be used to skew messages. Regular flu has more fatalities in absolute numbers but the fatality rate is very, very small. The Covid-19 fatality rate is much higher, while still only a bit over 2%. In this case the rate worries me more than the absolute numbers.Just to clarify one point, this bug is killing people at a much higher rate than our regular flu. Seasonal flu has a fatality rate usually around 0.05%-0.1%. Millions of people get it every year resulting in the tens of thousands of deaths we see annually.
Covid-19 is far nastier from an evolutionary perspective. It is killing at a rate of over 2% not just in China but S. Korea and Italy as well, even with early detection and access to relatively modern medical capabilities. Rather than 1/2000 infected people dying, the corona numbers are currently about 1/40. We expect that medical treatment in the US, Canada, etc. will be more successful, but so far we are struggling to even deliver an accurate diagnostic test.
With a 14 day incubation and the ability to spread 24 hours before symptoms show, worldwide spread is inevitable. Don't believe some random (with a PhD in molecular and evolutionary genetics) posting online, verify with the CDC.
I'm not suggesting that you lock yourself in a bunker, more that refundable rates and trip insurance are a good idea at this point. We are still going on cruise next month, but I am fully prepared to be shut out of one or more ports if any one of the thousands of guests and crew onboard have flu-like symptoms.
I am not changing my travel plans for next week since we are flying to CA, in the US. I am thinking of taking disinfecting wipes and wiping down the tray and arm rests on the plane and surfaces in the car. I don't normally do that but that seems like a small action that might pay off.