Future VDH resale prices

[Bjaiken77]

I don't think the resale restrictions affect VDH as much as the TOT.

I agree. That’s a big issue for a lot of people. I booked four nights in a preferred studio, and I’m expecting a $200 TOT bill at the end. It’s something that’s hard for a DVC member to reconcile, even though the overall cost is not horrible.

 

[ClaraOswald]

This thing isn’t selling well…. wait until an economic shock happens and a lot of people who thought they would buy to visit every 3-years will flood the market with contracts and the prices will drop significantly.

Right now it’s $150-160…. it will get down to $120-130…. with a floor of $80.

VGC is $250-$270… downside risk of $225…. floor of $180.

I haven't been paying attention and I didn't realize VDH weren't selling well. I'm sort of surprised, I guess. But then again...maybe not when there are so very many off-site hotels within walking distance. DVC wasn't really on my radar at all before last year. I mean, I looked it up once in a while but could never 'rationalize' the cost until I fell in love with the Grand Californian.

As for the original question...right now, I'm not sure I'd see us wanting to buy a contract at VDH. Though sometimes I think it might be great to own there if Disneyland Forward happens and the hotel is basically inside the park. That would be pretty cool. I love the style of the Grand Californian a lot but I suppose it's possible we'd be willing to alternate locations. However, I wouldn't buy Direct at the current price. And resale would have to fall pretty low for me. I'm just cheap. Ha!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I'm just cheap. Ha!

Is that why you bought at the most expensive property in all of DVC?

 

[ClaraOswald]

Is that why you bought at the most expensive property in all of DVC?

Hey...if I wasn't such a cheap-o, I'd probably just stay on the hotel side or get a CL room. So DVC is definitely the 'cheap' way to stay at the Grand Californian!

The taxes and points chart at VDH are a couple things that could scare me away from ever buying there, I think. I know the fees are basically already in my VGC contract but mentally, I just like it better that way.

 

[Genie+]

VDH direct hasn’t had strong incentives yet. iirc the best was large point purchase like $198? I bet if they brought it under $200pp it would sell much better. For whatever reason they are not.

 

[Bjaiken77]

VDH direct hasn’t had strong incentives yet. iirc the best was large point purchase like $198? I bet if they brought it under $200pp it would sell much better. For whatever reason they are not.

I agree. Even though I originally said I wasn’t going to buy there because of the TOT, more points with resale restrictions, and the fact that I spent a ton on VGF, I’m known to do stupid things. That’s especially true when it comes to DVC. They just haven’t provided a compelling enough price point to draw out the stupid side of my personality.

 

[AstroBlasters]

VDH direct hasn’t had strong incentives yet. iirc the best was large point purchase like $198? I bet if they brought it under $200pp it would sell much better. For whatever reason they are not.

100% agree with this.

They could move points quickly if they dropped the prices to $180 with incentives, but a direct contract (with access to AUL, VGC, WDW, DVC-Y) is a fundamentally different product than resale.

 

[Genie+]

I agree. Even though I originally said I wasn’t going to buy there because of the TOT, more points with resale restrictions, and the fact that I spent a ton on VGF, I’m known to do stupid things. That’s especially true when it comes to DVC. They just haven’t provided a compelling enough price point to draw out the stupid side of my personality.

That’s funny! And how we feel too. $220pp is easy to resist.

$190 or less would be much harder even if that math still works out to $400+/nt for a studio.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Do direct prices ever go DOWN several years in? Or is it expected that they will most certainly rise?

Sometimes I wonder if we'll wish we had enough direct in the future to use lounges in the parks (if they keep having them.) But I still don't know at what price-point that would seem worth it to me. If I did want to buy VDH, I'd consider direct for the right price just to be able to also use those points at WDW, on occasion, if I wanted. Or do get a bigger room at VGC at the 7 month mark.

 

[got4boys]

My prediction is that the resale prices will go up in the future. If you have not been reading about Disneyland Forward, VDH is right in the center of the proposed new park.

 

[AstroBlasters]

My prediction is that the resale prices will go up in the future. If you have not been reading about Disneyland Forward, VDH is right in the center of the proposed new park.

That won’t be a real thing for another decade…. if Anaheim approves it.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Even though I originally said I wasn’t going to buy there because of the TOT

If you have a car and are staying in mostly studios, then the delta between the TOT and what you save on parking is likely a win.

Unlike WDW, there is no free parking for non DVC guests staying at the Disney Hotels in CA. Even at Grand Cal you get to pay 40+ bucks a night for the privilege of paying 700+ a night for your room. Sure, VGC owners and fans will say you get the best of both worlds staying there (count me in that group too). IMO the huge number of studios available for VDH is a strength and when me and my family save a ton on parking fees, it takes a good chunk of that sting away.

 

[Bjaiken77]

If you have a car and are staying in mostly studios, then the delta between the TOT and what you save on parking is likely a win.

Unlike WDW, there is no free parking for non DVC guests staying at the Disney Hotels in CA. Even at Grand Cal you get to pay 40+ bucks a night for the privilege of paying 700+ a night for your room. Sure, VGC owners and fans will say you get the best of both worlds staying there (count me in that group too). IMO the huge number of studios available for VDH is a strength and when me and my family save a ton on parking fees, it takes a good chunk of that sting away.

That’s a great point! We likely will always drive. The number of studios will be interesting. How often I can grab a room with SAP direct points is a consideration. Also, even though I love DL, I don’t see us going to the parks more than a couple days, and DL lacks the bubble feel of WDW. The reason we would only spend a few days at the park is because we need park admission. That hurts when you are already paying for two WDW APs.

That’s why I’m kind of interested in a small contract but don’t care so much about resale restrictions. We will go to DL fairly often, but not nearly as often as WDW.

 

[Stank]

I don't disagree, but economic shocks have happened in the past. 9/11. 08' Housing collapse. And the value of the product has endured. My only doubt is market saturation. At what point is there simply too many DVC points in the ecosystem and there simply isn't enough potential buyers? One argument is that as long as people keep having kids, there will always be demand for DVC. But if Disney keeps pumping out new properties, I don't know if the demand will be there? Who knows. I just joined this party a few years ago. I just hope an exit strategy will be available for me if I ever want to leave this party.

Yeah, not to get too off track, but the next shock may very well be “the big one.” I can’t explain it other than rampant fiscal profligacy and the general lack of respect for value. Looking at Vegas hotels, a random night you’re at $300-500 minimum for rooms that were a fraction of that not long ago. People buying fast food and being delivered for $30. Go on vacation and it’s jam packed everywhere all over the country all the time.

The YOLO is off the charts. I keep hearing consumers are making trade offs, but that isn’t apparent in vacations or “experiences”/food delivery. People seem to embrace $400/night Vegas hotel rooms that were $100 five years ago.

I just think it’s so much consumer credit enabling it all that when it pops, it’ll dwarf 08 or 01. The excesses are just…excessive.

And I agree, the market saturation for DVC requires an ever-growing Disney super fan vacationer to sustain those “aging out” and selling DVC + new DVC properties coming online. What is the carrying capacity for DVC? We may very well be seeing it on the resale market as we have been in a multi-year price correction where price inflation hit a wall in May 2021 and began to steadily decline.

May 2021 we had BLT resale at $190-200 for small contracts. Now BLT is $120-125. There’s a lot of resale supply with 1800-2100 active listings being routine.

 

[PiratesOfTheSea]

That won’t be a real thing for another decade…. if Anaheim approves it.

And if it gets approved...VDH is going to be smack in the middle of a loud and unsightly construction zone for a long time.

 

[NVDISFamily]

And if it gets approved...VDH is going to be smack in the middle of a loud and unsightly construction zone for a long time.

Haha. We live in NV. Our "official" state flower is a traffic cone. It will really feel like home

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

We bought VGC the year it came out and added on resale a few years later. I agree with the PP who mentioned the mental block with the TOTs for VDH. I was mildly interested in VDH before the TOT were announced, but even that relatively small amount of out of pocket cash required to stay put me off. One of the things I love about DVC is paying the dues and then not thinking about the cost while I'm on vacation. It may be silly when you do the math, but it's still there. We have been able to get a few nights in a studio at VDH using our BLT points in the next couple months so we'll see what I think when we stay there. But I suspect we are more likely to add on the VGC in an economic downturn then buy VDH.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

We bought VGC the year it came out and added on resale a few years later. I agree with the PP who mentioned the mental block with the TOTs for VDH. I was mildly interested in VDH before the TOT were announced, but even that relatively small amount of out of pocket cash required to stay put me off. One of the things I love about DVC is paying the dues and then not thinking about the cost while I'm on vacation. It may be silly when you do the math, but it's still there. We have been able to get a few nights in a studio at VDH using our BLT points in the next couple months so we'll see what I think when we stay there. But I suspect we are more likely to add on the VGC in an economic downturn then buy VDH.

The ToT doesn’t bother me. It’s the exorbitant rate at VDH that bothers me. The city of Anaheim really went greedy with that one.

 

[FFMickey]

We bought VGC the year it came out and added on resale a few years later. I agree with the PP who mentioned the mental block with the TOTs for VDH. I was mildly interested in VDH before the TOT were announced, but even that relatively small amount of out of pocket cash required to stay put me off. One of the things I love about DVC is paying the dues and then not thinking about the cost while I'm on vacation. It may be silly when you do the math, but it's still there. We have been able to get a few nights in a studio at VDH using our BLT points in the next couple months so we'll see what I think when we stay there. But I suspect we are more likely to add on the VGC in an economic downturn then buy VDH.

This was us. We were sure we were going to add on to VDH, but VGC contracts were going down in price so we jumped on one. Then while we were in ROFR, the announcement of TOT came out and the price went up. I still highly doubt we will pick up a resale VDH contract with the high dues and high TOT at check in. We will probably have to use our direct points for stays there if we run out of VGC points or add more VGC points later.