Future VDH resale prices

[Bjaiken77]

I’m mostly posting this to hear from other members who are considering buying a resale contract at VDH. I would argue that right now is not a good time to buy because not a ton have hit the market. At what price point or period of time would you be looking to pull the trigger?

I don’t expect resale restrictions to hit VDH as hard as WDW resorts, but it certainly should affect price. Also, I’m only looking to buy a 100 points or so, which is a relatively small contract. I know those will be more popular, and pricier, because a lot of people, like myself, have no problem buying VDH with the resale restrictions because that’s the only place they’d spend those points anyhow. Still, I’m trying my best to quantify time frame and price - the latter being the leading consideration).

Opinions?

 

[JackosinDIS]

Agree that now is not a great time to buy resale… they still seem to be testing the water on price, and anyone selling now will not be keen on taking a bit hit on what they paid direct if they have not been able to get use out of the points.

Personally, I would only consider buying once it’s gets to $130 or below… we will see whether it gets anywhere near that…

 

[Genie+]

We’ve thought about buying 100pts VDH.

Our conclusion - would not buy resale over $150pp and don’t expect that pricing for another year or two. We’d consider direct around $180pp but that doesn’t seem likely on 100pts.

We also like Poly and have decided to wait and see where direct pricing ends up once CFW and Poly2 sell for a couple seasons. If a good direct deal comes along we’ll jump on it. I’d be willing to buy 150pts if direct incentives are great.

 

[pianomanzano]

One other thing to consider is future direct incentives and what effect it may have on resale prices. When VGF had those incentives last summer pushing it to $155-60pp (after magical beginnings), saw some resale pass ROFR in the 130s. I don't think they're in any rush to sell out VDH as they were with VGF, but if that day comes that might have a downward effect on resales!

 

[Bjaiken77]

One other thing to consider is future direct incentives and what effect it may have on resale prices. When VGF had those incentives last summer pushing it to $155-60pp (after magical beginnings), saw some resale pass ROFR in the 130s. I don't think they're in any rush to sell out VDH as they were with VGF, but if that day comes that might have a downward effect on resales!

That’s a great point. The thing with VGF is that it did not have resale restrictions. Therefore, I would suspect that future incentives for VDH would push a greater divide between direct and resale prices. I’m not saying the prices will be the same as they were for VGF. I’m just speculating that the pricing gap that exists between VDH direct and VDH resale will be greater than it was for VGF, at least as a percentage.

 

[NVDISFamily]

If rental demand keeps high over the next few years I’d be very tempted to buy another 200 to 400 points at VDH and I’d even be happy to pay the current market low of 160 a point to do so. I’d likely use the points most of the time but do an occasional rent of my points to cover a cruise, a Universal Orlando trip or something. That would also free up my direct VDH points for more flexibility. This is in stark contrast to Riviera where I’d be very reluctant to buy resale there now as it would make Riviera mandatory for future WDW trips. We love the resort, but until we are in retirement mode and can for sure go more often to WDW that’s something I’m reluctant to do.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Agree that now is not a great time to buy resale… they still seem to be testing the water on price, and anyone selling now will not be keen on taking a bit hit on what they paid direct if they have not been able to get use out of the points.

Personally, I would only consider buying once it’s gets to $130 or below… we will see whether it gets anywhere near that…

Agree. And sometimes timing is everything with DVC. I don’t regret buying 200 points at VGF, and I wouldn’t trade VDH points for my VGF points. However, purchasing those 200 points was a big financial hit. We weren’t ready to turn around and buy VDH until we recovered a bit.

We are starting to put aside a little extra now, but I still don’t think I need to buy VDH direct. I’d be perfectly happy holding on to those points for VDH only. However, if the difference between direct and resale is small, I figure I might as well spend the small difference in money and buy unrestricted, direct points.

My theory is that gap will widen with time as more direct buyers sell. Will it hit the point where I pull the trigger? Time will tell, but I certainly am glad to hear your thoughts.

FYI - I also have the Poly 2 dilema you are experiencing.

 

[Bjaiken77]

If rental demand keeps high over the next few years I’d be very tempted to buy another 200 to 400 points at VDH and I’d even be happy to pay the current market low of 160 a point to do so. I’d likely use the points most of the time but do an occasional rent of my points to cover a cruise, a Universal Orlando trip or something. That would also free up my direct VDH points for more flexibility. This is in stark contrast to Riviera where I’d be very reluctant to buy resale there now as it would make Riviera mandatory for future WDW trips. We love the resort, but until we are in retirement mode and can for sure go more often to WDW that’s something I’m reluctant to do.

Yep, I have Riviera direct and, even though I love the resort, I don’t think I’d buy resale. When I’m considering going to WDW, I’m not really super about the DVC hotel. We often end up switching to a different resort, so we like the flexibility. When I go to DL, what other DVC resort, other than Grand Cal, would I consider staying at? There are none!

So, I’m fine with the restrictions to a large extent (even though I’d prefer they didn’t exist). When I decide I want to go to DL, I’m looking to only stay at VDH. Furthermore, I’m only looking to stay 2-5 days, so less a lower point contract will do. I assume others are like me, which is why I expect prices to remain higher than RIV.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Will it hit the point where I pull the trigger?

Another factor to consider is how do rooms you want to book look at 7 months as the years go by? If VDH has enough inventory that you can get what you want with ease than perhaps direct SAP would be worth it and then it’s just what you think is the best long term value. I’ve already booked a few stays with my Riviera SAP at VDH that I got for the low 160s. Sometimes I look back at what we have done I think it might have been a better gamble to have purchased even more Riviera when it was that low. Hindsight is 20/20….

 

[Stank]

Yeah, average RIV resale in 2020 was around $140s? Today you can find them in $100-110.

VDH: $130s in 12-18 months, just prediction.

 

[T00dles]

Yeah, average RIV resale in 2020 was around $140s? Today you can find them in $100-110.

VDH: $130s in 12-18 months, just prediction.

Keep in mind it's California, not Florida. VGC resale is much higher than VGF.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

In 2 to 3 years, VDH direct might be priced at $250-260pp, which would also impact resale prices. I personally would not buy VDH resale because I don't want to be restricted to that one resort. But as others have mentioned, it will probably not impact it as much as Riviera because there just isn't any other DVC option in Anaheim. I own VGC resale and I only use those points at VGC so in essence, I've imposed a self-restriction. But it's nice to know that I can still use my VGC points elsewhere, even though I never plan on doing so. In the end, I think there will be plenty of people willing to buy VDH resale to use exclusively at VDH so resale prices will remain higher than WDW resorts. You add the possibility of Disneyland Forward, I can't see direct owners willing to sell for too much less than what they paid for. But the market will ultimately dictate the price. Can't wait to see what happens in 7 years or so.

 

[lilsonicfan]

It's an interesting situation. The restrictions don't exist with VGC resale, BUT, the lack of restrictions aren't much of a factor in keeping VGC resale at high prices. It seems largely about the small size of the resort and demand in staying there. So no real correlation with respect to restrictions.

I imagine VDH won't suffer from the small size problem as VGC although I have no idea. But it too would probably have fairly high demand and so I'm not sure that the restrictions will bump pricing down as they would at WDW where there are many resale options that don't have restrictions.

 

[AstroBlasters]

This thing isn’t selling well…. wait until an economic shock happens and a lot of people who thought they would buy to visit every 3-years will flood the market with contracts and the prices will drop significantly.

Right now it’s $150-160…. it will get down to $120-130…. with a floor of $80.

VGC is $250-$270… downside risk of $225…. floor of $180.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

This thing isn’t selling well…. wait until an economic shock happens and a lot of people who thought they would buy to visit every 3-years will flood the market with contracts and the prices will drop significantly.

Right now it’s $150-160…. it will get down to $120-130…. with a floor of $80.

VGC is $250-$270… downside risk of $225…. floor of $180.

I don't disagree, but economic shocks have happened in the past. 9/11. 08' Housing collapse. And the value of the product has endured. My only doubt is market saturation. At what point is there simply too many DVC points in the ecosystem and there simply isn't enough potential buyers? One argument is that as long as people keep having kids, there will always be demand for DVC. But if Disney keeps pumping out new properties, I don't know if the demand will be there? Who knows. I just joined this party a few years ago. I just hope an exit strategy will be available for me if I ever want to leave this party.

 

[DVCsloth]

I don't think the resale restrictions affect VDH as much as the TOT.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I don't think the resale restrictions affect VDH as much as the TOT.

And the point chart. They went high on the point chart with the TOT and have high dues for a tower with no transportation costs……

Can a current owner tell me if they are putting some of the Monorail costs on VDH?

 

[Bjaiken77]

Another factor to consider is how do rooms you want to book look at 7 months as the years go by? If VDH has enough inventory that you can get what you want with ease than perhaps direct SAP would be worth it and then it’s just what you think is the best long term value. I’ve already booked a few stays with my Riviera SAP at VDH that I got for the low 160s. Sometimes I look back at what we have done I think it might have been a better gamble to have purchased even more Riviera when it was that low. Hindsight is 20/20….

That’s true. I have four days post DL Halloween run that we booked with our direct points. Having grown up 10 minutes from DL, and now living on the East Coast, there is admittedly an emotional attachment to owning points that might even exceed the practical feed.

I don’t know that it’s the best deal, and I still have family and friends in the area. Also, there are plenty of good hotels in the area that aren’t DVC. It doesn’t have the bubble effect of WDW. Those reasons are all in the “con” side, but if I could pick up some points at a good price, some of my “pros” may win out.

 

[Bjaiken77]

In 2 to 3 years, VDH direct might be priced at $250-260pp, which would also impact resale prices. I personally would not buy VDH resale because I don't want to be restricted to that one resort. But as others have mentioned, it will probably not impact it as much as Riviera because there just isn't any other DVC option in Anaheim. I own VGC resale and I only use those points at VGC so in essence, I've imposed a self-restriction. But it's nice to know that I can still use my VGC points elsewhere, even though I never plan on doing so. In the end, I think there will be plenty of people willing to buy VDH resale to use exclusively at VDH so resale prices will remain higher than WDW resorts. You add the possibility of Disneyland Forward, I can't see direct owners willing to sell for too much less than what they paid for. But the market will ultimately dictate the price. Can't wait to see what happens in 7 years or so.

This is all true. And if it doesn’t come down on the resale side, I guess I’ll just have to try to get my rooms at the 7 month mark.

 

[Bjaiken77]

It's an interesting situation. The restrictions don't exist with VGC resale, BUT, the lack of restrictions aren't much of a factor in keeping VGC resale at high prices. It seems largely about the small size of the resort and demand in staying there. So no real correlation with respect to restrictions.

I imagine VDH won't suffer from the small size problem as VGC although I have no idea. But it too would probably have fairly high demand and so I'm not sure that the restrictions will bump pricing down as they would at WDW where there are many resale options that don't have restrictions.

It’s hard to say, right? I remember prior to the additional tax added and other things members learned, everyone was foaming at the mouth to own VDH. I feel like that cooled to a large degree. Who knows what the future holds?